Petroleum, the most important energy source in the world, plays an essential role in securing economic development. If a petroleum shortage happens, it will severely disrupt production and life. Cross-regional emergen...Petroleum, the most important energy source in the world, plays an essential role in securing economic development. If a petroleum shortage happens, it will severely disrupt production and life. Cross-regional emergency scheduling can effectively alleviate a petroleum shortage and further enhance the efficiency of the emergency response. Considering the general lack of focus on cross-regional petroleum dispatching management, we propose a three-layer emergency scheduling network for petroleum based on a supernetwork model that can increase the regional emergency correlation by adding a transfer management process. Then, we compare the total demand for petroleum and the emergency costs considered in the petroleum emergency scheduling supernetwork model（the single-region and the cross-region scenarios）.The result shows that the cross-regional emergency scheduling pattern can effectively enhance the efficiency of the emergency preparations and reduce the emergency costs in most cases. However, when the vulnerabilities in the crossregional link grow or the regional linkage decreases, the effect of single-regional scheduling is better. In addition, the advantages of the cross-regional emergency scheduling network will be strengthened with an increase in its maximum emergency capability. Nonetheless, this advantage will disappear when the petroleum demand in the crisis layer reaches the maximum emergency response capacity. Finally, according to the comparative analysis simulation among scenarios,certain strategic policy recommendations are suggested to improve the petroleum emergency scheduling ability in regions.These recommendations include strengthening the cross-regional coordination mechanism, increasing the modes of petroleum transportation and enhancing the carrying capacity of regional emergency routes.展开更多
The amount of solar PV installed capacity has steadily increased to 44.5 GW at the end of FY2017,since the introduction of the Feed in Tariff(FiT)to Japan in 2012.On the other hand,since the first curtailment of solar...The amount of solar PV installed capacity has steadily increased to 44.5 GW at the end of FY2017,since the introduction of the Feed in Tariff(FiT)to Japan in 2012.On the other hand,since the first curtailment of solar PV was conducted on October 13th,2018 in the Kyushu area,the curtailment has been frequently executed including wind power after that.In this study,cross-regional interconnector and pumped hydro energy storage(PHES)are focused on mitigating curtailment.In Japan,there are 9 electric power areas which connected each other by cross-regional interconnectors.According to the historical operation,cross-regional interconnectors were secured as emergency flexible measures,but after the implicit auction was started from October 2018,it is used on merit order.Regarding a PHES in Japan,they have been built with nuclear power plants for several decades.Because the output of nuclear power generation is constant,so the PHES is used to absorb the surplus at nighttime when the demand declines.All nuclear power plants in Japan have been shut down after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant following the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11th,2011.There are several nuclear power plants that have been restarted(9 reactors,as of August 2019).In this study,the amount of curtailment for solar PV in the Kyushu area is sent to the Chugoku area using the cross-regional interconnector(Kanmon line).Then,the PHES in the Chugoku area is pumping with low price.Because the spot price in the market is low when the curtailment is executed.After that,the PHES is generating at night with high price when the solar PV is not generating.It makes a profit by the deference for the cost of pumping and the revenue of generating by the PHES.As a calculation result,for one week from May 2nd to 8th,2019,a profit becomes 152.2 million JPY(about 1.22 million EUR).For this purpose,it is necessary to raise the operation capacity of the cross-regional interconnector up to the rated capacity with the frequency control function of solar PV instead of the capacity to keep frequency in the event of an accident.This will allow the further introduction of solar PV in Japan.展开更多
This paper first estimated the infectious capacity of COVID-19 based on the time series evolution data of confirmed cases in multiple countries. Then, a method to infer the cross-regional spread speed of COVID-19 was ...This paper first estimated the infectious capacity of COVID-19 based on the time series evolution data of confirmed cases in multiple countries. Then, a method to infer the cross-regional spread speed of COVID-19 was introduced in this paper, which took the gross domestic product(GDP) of each region as one of the factors that affect the spread speed of COVID-19 and studied the relationship between the GDP and the infection density of each region(China's Mainland, the United States, and EU countries). In addition, the geographic distance between regions was also considered in this method and the effect of geographic distance on the spread speed of COVID-19 was studied. Studies have shown that the probability of mutual infection of these two regions decreases with increasing geographic distance. Therefore, this paper proposed an epidemic disease spread index based on GDP and geographic distance to quantify the spread speed of COVID-19 in a region. The analysis results showed a strong correlation between the epidemic disease spread index in a region and the number of confirmed cases. This finding provides reasonable suggestions for the control of epidemics. Strengthening the control measures in regions with higher epidemic disease spread index can effectively control the spread of epidemics.展开更多
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2014XT06)
文摘Petroleum, the most important energy source in the world, plays an essential role in securing economic development. If a petroleum shortage happens, it will severely disrupt production and life. Cross-regional emergency scheduling can effectively alleviate a petroleum shortage and further enhance the efficiency of the emergency response. Considering the general lack of focus on cross-regional petroleum dispatching management, we propose a three-layer emergency scheduling network for petroleum based on a supernetwork model that can increase the regional emergency correlation by adding a transfer management process. Then, we compare the total demand for petroleum and the emergency costs considered in the petroleum emergency scheduling supernetwork model（the single-region and the cross-region scenarios）.The result shows that the cross-regional emergency scheduling pattern can effectively enhance the efficiency of the emergency preparations and reduce the emergency costs in most cases. However, when the vulnerabilities in the crossregional link grow or the regional linkage decreases, the effect of single-regional scheduling is better. In addition, the advantages of the cross-regional emergency scheduling network will be strengthened with an increase in its maximum emergency capability. Nonetheless, this advantage will disappear when the petroleum demand in the crisis layer reaches the maximum emergency response capacity. Finally, according to the comparative analysis simulation among scenarios,certain strategic policy recommendations are suggested to improve the petroleum emergency scheduling ability in regions.These recommendations include strengthening the cross-regional coordination mechanism, increasing the modes of petroleum transportation and enhancing the carrying capacity of regional emergency routes.
文摘The amount of solar PV installed capacity has steadily increased to 44.5 GW at the end of FY2017,since the introduction of the Feed in Tariff(FiT)to Japan in 2012.On the other hand,since the first curtailment of solar PV was conducted on October 13th,2018 in the Kyushu area,the curtailment has been frequently executed including wind power after that.In this study,cross-regional interconnector and pumped hydro energy storage(PHES)are focused on mitigating curtailment.In Japan,there are 9 electric power areas which connected each other by cross-regional interconnectors.According to the historical operation,cross-regional interconnectors were secured as emergency flexible measures,but after the implicit auction was started from October 2018,it is used on merit order.Regarding a PHES in Japan,they have been built with nuclear power plants for several decades.Because the output of nuclear power generation is constant,so the PHES is used to absorb the surplus at nighttime when the demand declines.All nuclear power plants in Japan have been shut down after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant following the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11th,2011.There are several nuclear power plants that have been restarted(9 reactors,as of August 2019).In this study,the amount of curtailment for solar PV in the Kyushu area is sent to the Chugoku area using the cross-regional interconnector(Kanmon line).Then,the PHES in the Chugoku area is pumping with low price.Because the spot price in the market is low when the curtailment is executed.After that,the PHES is generating at night with high price when the solar PV is not generating.It makes a profit by the deference for the cost of pumping and the revenue of generating by the PHES.As a calculation result,for one week from May 2nd to 8th,2019,a profit becomes 152.2 million JPY(about 1.22 million EUR).For this purpose,it is necessary to raise the operation capacity of the cross-regional interconnector up to the rated capacity with the frequency control function of solar PV instead of the capacity to keep frequency in the event of an accident.This will allow the further introduction of solar PV in Japan.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.62266030 and 61863025)International S & T Cooperation Projects of Gansu province (Grant No.144WCGA166)Longyuan Young Innovation Talents and the Doctoral Foundation of LUT。
文摘This paper first estimated the infectious capacity of COVID-19 based on the time series evolution data of confirmed cases in multiple countries. Then, a method to infer the cross-regional spread speed of COVID-19 was introduced in this paper, which took the gross domestic product(GDP) of each region as one of the factors that affect the spread speed of COVID-19 and studied the relationship between the GDP and the infection density of each region(China's Mainland, the United States, and EU countries). In addition, the geographic distance between regions was also considered in this method and the effect of geographic distance on the spread speed of COVID-19 was studied. Studies have shown that the probability of mutual infection of these two regions decreases with increasing geographic distance. Therefore, this paper proposed an epidemic disease spread index based on GDP and geographic distance to quantify the spread speed of COVID-19 in a region. The analysis results showed a strong correlation between the epidemic disease spread index in a region and the number of confirmed cases. This finding provides reasonable suggestions for the control of epidemics. Strengthening the control measures in regions with higher epidemic disease spread index can effectively control the spread of epidemics.
