On the Relationship Between the Crustal Strain Rate and Seismicity:Detect the Source-Field Relation from the Crustal Strain Field

The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent years by the recorded crustal strain field. Seismic activity, especially the recurrence period, is different in different areas. Ding Guoyu (1984) pointed out that, for different seismic regions, the difference in the recurrence period of strong earthquakes is mainly controlled by their difference in the rate of the tectonic movement, which is controlled by the seismogenic environment and the tectonic conditions. The method of determining the risky regions for strong shocks from the gradient of vertical strain rates observed in a geodetic survey is preliminarily tested with the earthquakes in recent years; the results show that this method is effective and useful for earthquake prediction. The relationship between CSR and seismicity in a specific region is studied with strain theories,

The Dynamic Characteristics of Strain Fields and Crustal Movement before the Wenchuan Earthquake (M_S=8.0)

In this paper, we analyze the crustal movements, strain field changes and large scale dynamic characteristics of horizontal deformation before the Wenchuan earthquake (M_S=8.0) using GPS data obtained from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China. The following issues are discussed. First, the strain fields of the Longmenshan fault zone located at the epicenter show slow accumulation, because of the tectonic dynamics process subjected to the eastward movement of the Bayan Har block. Second, the different movements between the Longmenshan fault and South China block are smaller than the errors of GPS observation. Third, the high value of compressive strain (2004～2007) is located at the epicenter, which shows that the local squeezing action is stronger than before. Fourth, the data from GPS reference stations in the Chinese Mainland show that crustal shortening is faster than before in the north-eastern direction, which is part of the background of the local tectonic dynamics increase in the Longmenshan fault zone.

Construction of GPS MonitoringNetwork,Characteristics of RecentCrustal Movement,and Relationbetween Stress Field andEarthquake Activity in the NingxiaRegion

GPS observation network is deployed in the central part of Ningxia, which is the juncture of the Alxa block, Ordos block and Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block. Using the data of five phases of repeated survey sine 1996, the current state of crustal movement in the central part of Ningxia is analyzed. From the result, we can know the following. (1) In the period from Dec. 1996 to May 1999, the central part of Ningxia had the phenomenon of left-lateral movement about the west margin of Ordos (measuring station P2) and the Lingwu fault on the east of the Yinchuan basin displayed the mode of left-lateral reverse strike slip movement. In that region, the direction of the principal stress field was NNE-SSW (with an azimuth of 29.8?; the central part to the south of the measuring station P2 displaced eastward; the vertical deformation was obviously greater than the horizontal deformation in order of magnitude; the Yinchuan basin and Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block were in a state of rising; the measuring station P1 in the hinterland of Ordos showed a trend of subsiding year by year; and there may be a hidden fault to exist between the measuring points P3 and P4. (2) About one year before the occurrence of moderately strong earthquakes in the vicinity of the measuring region, deformation anomalies and abnormal changes of principal stress direction can be observed by the GPS measuring stations in that region; before moderately strong earthquakes near the measuring region and before strong earthquakes in adjacent regions, the simulated GPS deformation vector field ofthat region can betoken the approximate position of the coming earthquake. These results can be regarded as the eigenvalues of earthquake prediction for consideration.

GPS数据揭示的喜马拉雅东构造结地区现今应变特征及其动力学机制

喜马拉雅东构造结位于印度与欧亚板块碰撞的前缘,是地壳缩短和构造旋转变形十分强烈的部位。本文收集东构造结及其周边区域大范围、长时段的最新GPS速度场资料,采用“二维张力样条”方法计算获得区域构造应变场,研究其现今地壳运动与构造变形特征。结果显示,高应变率区集中在喜马拉雅主逆冲断裂、实皆-阿帕龙断裂、鲜水河-小江断裂、东构造结的环形地区和印度东北部及缅甸西部的巴坎-若开山脉地区,而在跨嘉黎断裂和红河断裂区域并无显著的应变。区域最大剪切应变率主要沿着实皆-阿帕龙断裂、鲜水河-小江断裂等构造带分布,区域最大面压缩率发生在阿萨姆东北部一带(N28°~29°、E95.5°~96.5°),最高量值为151.8×10^(-9)a^(-1);反映喜马拉雅东构造结的最强变形核心部位已经由南迦巴瓦峰地区向其东南方向发生了转移,移至位于阿萨姆东北部地区的喜马拉雅主边界逆冲断裂与阿帕龙断裂的交汇处。综合分析认为,喜马拉雅东构造结地区在印度板块强烈的楔入挤压作用下,大陆变形以地壳增厚为主,深部以黏塑性为特征的下地壳和上地幔物质的流动驱动着上覆脆性上地壳地块。

Horizontal crustal deformation in Chinese Mainland analyzed by CMONOC GPS data from 2009-2013

In this study, we analyze the regional GPS data of Crustal Movement Observation Network of China （CMONOC） observed from 2009-2013 using the BERNESE GPS software, and then the preliminary results of horizontal velocity field and strain rate field are presented, which could reflect the overall deformation features in the Chinese mainland from 2009-2013. Besides, the velocity error and the probable factors that could influence the estimate of long-term deformation are also discussed.

Preliminary Study on the Horizontal Crustal Deformation in Chinese Continent

In the paper, the current strain field and stress field in Chinese continent have been discussedbased on the processed data from two GPS campaigns of national GPS network carried out inthe years of 1994 and 1996. With a principal compressional strain direction of NNE, thewestern and castern parts of Qinghai-Xizang subplate are dominated by extensional straiu andthe central Part by compressional strain. Along the southwestern segment of southeastern partof Qinghai-Xizang subplate, i. e. Yunnan area, the princiPal compressional strain direction isNW and the compressional strain is equivalent to the extensional strain in magnitude. Theprincipal compressional strain of Xinjiang subplate is mainly NNE and NE with a difference inthe strain magnitude. The principal compressional strain in North China subplate is quite effective in NE and nearly EW directions with differences along some segments. However, thecompressional strain is corresponding to the extensional strain in magnitude in most areas.

Aseismic negative dislocation model and deformation analysis of crustal horizontal movement during 1999--2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block

Through numerical simulation for GPS data, aseismic negative dislocation model for crustal horizontal movement during 1999~2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block is presented, combined with the spatial distribution of apparent strain field in this area, the characteristics of motion and deformation of active blocks and their boundary faults, together with the place and intensity of strain accumulation are analyzed. It is shown that: a) 9 active blocks appeared totally clockwise motion from eastward by north to eastward by south. Obvious sinistral strike-slip and NE-NEE relative compressive motion between the blocks separated by Qilianshan-Haiyuan fault zone was discovered; b) 20 fault segments (most of them showed compression) locked the relative motion between blocks to varying degrees, among the total, the mid-east segment of Qilianshan fault (containing the place where it meets Riyueshan-Lajishan fault) and the place where it meets Haiyuan fault and Zhuanglanghe fault, more favored accumulation of strain. Moreover, the region where Riyueshan-Lajishan fault meets north boundary of Qaidam block may have strain accumulation to some degree. c) Obtained magnitude of block velocities and locking of their boundaries were less than relevant results for observation in the period of 1993~1999.

2022年门源6.9级地震的GPS形变特征

利用1999~2021年的GPS观测资料研究2022年门源6.9级地震震中附近区域的地壳形变特征。速度场在祁连山-海原地震带两侧呈现出明显的“南大北小”特性。发震断层速度剖面结果显示,断层两侧挤压速率为3.1 mm/a,走滑速率为3.9 mm/a,这与走滑为主的震源机制解一致。门源地震位于主应变率场和面膨胀率场高值区向低值区过渡的梯度带上,发生在最大剪应变率场和应变率第二张量不变量高值区边缘地区。同震库仑应力触发了大部分的余震,对冷龙岭断裂到海原断裂的地区有一定的应力加载作用。综合地壳形变特征和库仑应力等分析结果认为,冷龙岭断裂到海原断裂地区的地震危险性有所提高。

2021年青海玛多7.4级地震前应变演化特征分析

计算1999~2016年、2017~2020年青海玛多及其周边地区GNSS速度场,同时采用连续滑移回归方法获取该地区震前面膨胀率、主应变率及最大剪切应变率,分析其动态演变特征。结果表明:1)震前该地区构造运动并未出现明显调整;2)震前震中附近区域面膨胀率下降,说明震中附近区域应变能累积降低;3)震前震中附近区域最大剪切应变率和主应变率有所增强,说明震中附近出现应力调整现象,剪切作用增强。

基于GNSS速度场的川滇地区现今地壳构造运动形变特征分析

将川滇地区划分为5个次级块体,利用块体运动的整体旋转与线性应变模型分析近年来中国地壳运动观测网的GNSS对地观测速度场数据,得到该研究区域相对于亚欧板块1°×0.5°的水平运动速度场和应变场。分析该区域形变速度场和应变场的空间变化,发现川滇地区整体上呈现出由北向南顺时针变化的微弱压缩和扩张运动,川东南块体、川青甘块体分别呈NW-SE134.3°、NW-SE83.5°的微弱压缩运动,滇西块体、川西块体和滇中块体分别呈NW-SE90.2°、NW-SE28.2°、NW-SE68.7°的微弱扩张运动,其中川西块体的扩张运动相对于其他次级块体较为明显。川滇地区各次级块体形变在空间上存在一定差异,但整体上川滇地区主压应变轴从北至南由EW方向逐渐按顺时针偏转,到南部转变为NS方向,其变化走向为0.17°-89.89°,与利用地球物理方法得到的主压应变轴优势方向大体一致。

汶川8.0级地震前区域地壳运动与应变场动态特征

利用中国地壳运动观测网络GPS资料,通过获取水平相对运动、水平应变场分布变化等,研究了汶川8.0级地震前的区域水平运动与应变率场变化,以及大尺度地壳运动动态特征等。研究结果表明,发生汶川8.0级地震的龙门山断裂带,由于受到其西侧巴颜喀拉地块向东运动的构造动力作用,处于缓慢的应变积累状态。在汶川地震前龙门山断裂带相对华南地块的差异运动小于GPS观测误差。川滇地区应变场图像显示2004-2007年面应变率负值最高区出现在汶川8.0级地震震中区及其附近,可能反应了局部挤压增强。GPS基准站资料反映的大尺度北东向地壳缩短的相对运动增强,也形成了促进龙门山断裂带发生大破裂的区域构造动力增强的背景条件。

GPS地壳形变监测网应变解算方法与程序设计

分析了在平面直角坐标系和大地坐标系内解算应变的方法及其特点,并以Matlab为开发平台,研制出一套在平面直角坐标系和大地坐标系中解算应变的程序GPSstrain。利用GPS监测网测站位移(速率),该程序能够解算剪切应变(γ1、γ2)、面应变、块体旋转、主应变及其方向、最大剪切应变及其方向,同时也可解算出这些应变分量的误差。另外该程序还具有高斯投影解算功能,根据各测站坐标能够自动形成所有的Delaunay三角形,并以图形方式显示。最后以实际算例给出了该解算程序的部分结果,并进行了初步的分析和讨论。

华北地区近期地壳水平运动与应力应变场特征

利用华北GPS监测网 1 992年、1 995年、1 996年的观测资料 ,应用最小二乘配置给出了华北地区相对水平位移场、应变场的分布图像 .经初步研究表明 :华北地区 1 992—1 995年间的水平位移和应变场表现为整体性不均匀的压性运动 ,1 995— 1 996年测区东部仍以水平压性运动为主 ,但测区西部则主要表现为张性运动 .水平运动 (方向、大小 )发生显著变化和应变高值区的地带主要位于块体边界带和主要断裂带附近 .燕山断块南边界的北东向断裂存在着较显著的左旋运动 .区内最大剪应变、面膨胀的高值区在天津、北京、唐山一带 .结合非连续变形数值分析方法 (DDA)初步分析认为 ,1 992— 1 995年GPS观测结果显示的华北地区存在东、西部构造应力作用的明显差别 ,华北东部以东西向压应力作用为主 ,而西部的南北向构造应力作用又明显大于东部 .

利用应变场和基线变化率研究新疆南天山地区近期地壳运动特征

利用GPS数据研究南天山地区地壳运动特征,截取了该区域2005～2009年GPS数据,在统一框架下进行解算,并绘制出不同时段的主应变、剪应变以及基线变化速率等图像,研究表明该区域的地壳形变具有自西向东、自南向北减弱的特点,主压应变主要表现为受印度板块向北推挤而形成的近南北向压性应力场。2005～2009年基线变化速率表明,以喀什沿经线南北向为界,其东部区域基本上为压缩区,其西部区域基本上为拉张区,东部的基线缩短平均速率(4.84mm/a)大于西部基线伸长的平均速率(3.06mm/a),以喀什沿纬线东西向为界,其南部区域基线变化平均速率(5.58mm/a)明显高于北部区域基线变化平均速率(3.52mm/a),且伸长、压缩变化速率最大基线均在南部地区,说明南部区域受到塔里木块体和青藏高原挤压比较强烈,表明喀什南部区域地壳运动相对活跃。

利用地形变观测量求解地壳水平应变场的方法

在前人工作基础上，初步研究建立了利用多种地形变资料联合求解地壳应变连续分布的方法途径和数学模型。包括利用多种地形变观测资料整体解算测区分单元的应变张量的最小二乘平差模型，以及借助最小二乘配置进行应变空间连续分布估计的方法。并给出了对临潼水平形变同监测资料的试算结果。

晋中盆地构造变形与地裂缝活动GPS监测分析

基于"数字地震网络工程"2007～2010年GPS监测数据,获取了晋中盆地现今地壳形变特征,并进一步利用椭球面块体应变模型研究了晋中盆地现今地壳应变场特征,据此分析了其与地质灾害发生的内在关系,揭示了盆地内地质灾害多发的成因。研究结果表明:晋中盆地现今地壳整体朝南东向运动,在盆地中部清徐—太谷区域表现出明显的拉张运动;晋中盆地现今地壳应变场整体以NW-SE向拉张为主,其中清徐—太谷、介休是应变高值区也是地震、地裂缝灾害多发区,最大主张应变量达1.8×10-6/a,且区域拉张应变方向与地裂缝呈近似垂直关系,进一步证实了晋中盆地地裂缝的强构造属性。

云南地区近期地壳活动特征

基于云南省的GNSS连续观测资料,通过最小二乘、克里金插值等方法进行速度场、应变参数的求解,获得了自2010年起至今云南地区的地壳活动特征。结果表明,云南地区最大剪应变变化速率存在西强东弱,北强南弱的特征,目前滇西北地区最大剪应变增强最快,滇南至滇西南等区域挤压应变积累最明显,且2011年缅甸7.2级地震的发生未改变这一地区的应变积累趋势。

基于GPS的精河M_S6.6地震前地壳变形动态特征研究

利用2013~2017年3期GPS观测资料,获得精河6.6级地震前震中附近区域水平运动速率、主应变率、面膨胀率及最大剪应变率,并结合区域构造背景分析该区域变形动态特征。结果表明:震前震中附近区域速度场速率逐渐增大,发震断裂两盘构造运动速率不均,震中附近区域GPS测点的速率和运动方向存在差异,反应了地壳应变能量积累。震中区域主压应变率变化反映出应力调整过程,沿断层走向的张压转换的形变高梯度带、最大剪应变梯度带可为地震预测提供参考。

用GPS分析天山现今地壳变形与应变率场

基于中国地壳运动观测网络1999-2013年和中国大陆构造环境监测网络2009-2013年的GPS区域网观测资料,并结合境外天山、帕米尔等地区公开发布的速度场结果,获取整个天山及邻区较为完整的地壳运动图像以及应变率场分布特征。初步结果表明：1）天山地区现今应变率场分布的整体特征与该地区长期的地质构造背景具有一定的继承关系,天山以近南北向挤压缩短变形为主要特征,主压应变率由其西段（77°E附近）的约45×10-9/a,逐渐降至东段（86°E附近）的约10×10-9/a;2）天山西南部的帕米尔高原北缘逆冲断裂带及其北侧的阿莱山脉附近为面压缩区,主压应变率约为（50-60）×10-9/a,面膨胀率约为（40-50）×10-9/a,与已有GPS剖面观测到的该区域（10-15）mm/a的地壳缩短速率十分一致;3）与塔里木盆地相邻的帕米尔高原东部地区（38°N附近）,其现今地壳活动、应变率场分布与该地区目前处于拉张的地震、地质构造背景有很好的一致性,主应变率和面膨胀率显示存在一定程度的拉张变形,拉张应变率约为（10-20）×10-9/a,方向为近东西向;4）最大剪应变率结果显示天山地区存在一定程度的剪切变形,最大剪应变率高值区对应于西南天山的帕米尔北缘逆冲断裂带附近,幅度最大值约为40×10-9/a;5）另一最大剪应变率高值区位于天山西部（78°E附近）,幅度约为30×10-9/a。

堪察加地区现今地壳运动与变形特征研究

利用俄罗斯堪察加地区1995～2005年的 GPS 观洲数据,研究了该区现今地壳水平运动速度场特征.在球坐标系中解算了各应变率分量,分析了应变率场的空间分布特征.并与地震学和地质学研究结果进行了综合对比分析.结果表明.堪察加半岛北部的微板块边界并不明显.堪察加南部测站运动速度大于中部和北部地区.愈靠近东部板块汇聚区,测站速度越大.从东海岸到西海岸,测站水平速度存在明显的梯度衰减特征,水平运动方向与太平洋板块向西北的俯冲方向基本一致.各应变率分量具有东部海岸大于中部和西海岸、从东至西呈梯度衰减的特点.堪察加大部分地区处于 EW 和 NS 向压缩状念.局部存在拉张.面应变率结果显示绝大部分为压缩区;刚性转动结果表明大部分地区表现为顺时针转动,北部地区和南端顺时针旋转性明显.东部有效应变率明显大于西部地区,东西向梯度衰减关系明显.主压应变率明显大于主张应变率.特别是在东海岸地区.主压应变率方向与中等以上地震的主压应力轴在水平方向的投影方向基本一致.地壳变形场在空间分布上的不一致性主要与太平洋板块在堪察加半岛东南侧的俯冲深度、俯冲方位角、俯冲倾角和俯冲带的耦合强度有关.