We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,...We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,degree,betweenness,closeness,and eigenvector centralities,to detect whether network properties drive the currency risk premia.We observe that closeness and betweenness centralities can negatively drive currency excess returns but do not exhibit a relationship with forward spread.Thus,our developed network centralities are independent of an unconditional carry trade risk factor.Based on our findings,we develop a trading strategy by taking a long position on peripheral countries’currencies and a short position on core coun-tries’currencies.The aforementioned strategy generates a higher Sharpe ratio than the currency momentum strategy.Our proposed strategy is robust to foreign exchange regimes and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.展开更多
A model was proposed for addressing investment risk of the flee reserve in the form of credit or currency risk. This risk was expressed by a constant amount K （ e. g., securitization） upon an interest-increasing eve...A model was proposed for addressing investment risk of the flee reserve in the form of credit or currency risk. This risk was expressed by a constant amount K （ e. g., securitization） upon an interest-increasing event and a random variable Z representing the recovery rate of a bond or a devaluation factor. The model equation is an integro-differential equation with deviating arguments. The analytical solutions were obtained for the probability of survival as Z is a discrete random variable and as Z is a continuous random variable respectively.展开更多
To investigate hedging effectiveness of multinational companies in respect of using currency derivatives,the author adapts an innovative and multi layers GJR-GARCH-based model.This model broke down the currency risk f...To investigate hedging effectiveness of multinational companies in respect of using currency derivatives,the author adapts an innovative and multi layers GJR-GARCH-based model.This model broke down the currency risk faced by MNCs in each business area and added six control variables other than foreign sales ratio,all these variables have been proved to be related to MNCs'currency risk exposure but was not included into previous models.Moreover,this model absorbs advantages of several models built in previous studies and combines them into a whole,intact model.This paper also employed a wide research scope,using a sample of 48 non-financial and 28 financial firms headquartered in USA.Also,comparison between financial and non-financial firms is an innovation of our research.According to the result,hedging of non-financial companies in respect of currency risk is ineffective,and financial companies are more likely using currency derivatives to speculate.展开更多
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,Grant No.2023A1515030221.
文摘We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,degree,betweenness,closeness,and eigenvector centralities,to detect whether network properties drive the currency risk premia.We observe that closeness and betweenness centralities can negatively drive currency excess returns but do not exhibit a relationship with forward spread.Thus,our developed network centralities are independent of an unconditional carry trade risk factor.Based on our findings,we develop a trading strategy by taking a long position on peripheral countries’currencies and a short position on core coun-tries’currencies.The aforementioned strategy generates a higher Sharpe ratio than the currency momentum strategy.Our proposed strategy is robust to foreign exchange regimes and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
基金Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 10471088, 60572126）
文摘A model was proposed for addressing investment risk of the flee reserve in the form of credit or currency risk. This risk was expressed by a constant amount K （ e. g., securitization） upon an interest-increasing event and a random variable Z representing the recovery rate of a bond or a devaluation factor. The model equation is an integro-differential equation with deviating arguments. The analytical solutions were obtained for the probability of survival as Z is a discrete random variable and as Z is a continuous random variable respectively.
文摘To investigate hedging effectiveness of multinational companies in respect of using currency derivatives,the author adapts an innovative and multi layers GJR-GARCH-based model.This model broke down the currency risk faced by MNCs in each business area and added six control variables other than foreign sales ratio,all these variables have been proved to be related to MNCs'currency risk exposure but was not included into previous models.Moreover,this model absorbs advantages of several models built in previous studies and combines them into a whole,intact model.This paper also employed a wide research scope,using a sample of 48 non-financial and 28 financial firms headquartered in USA.Also,comparison between financial and non-financial firms is an innovation of our research.According to the result,hedging of non-financial companies in respect of currency risk is ineffective,and financial companies are more likely using currency derivatives to speculate.
