Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. ...Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. Since ERN in the Sequential SIR model fluctuates in multiple dimensions due to changes in the surrounding environment, it is difficult to set the appropriate accuracy of the uncertainty region of the estimated data. The challenge in this study is to build a mathematical model of infectious disease according to the characteristics and data characteristics of the infectious disease and select an appropriate estimation method. Highly accurate quantitative research that analyzes the validity of “how infectious diseases prevail” from an academic point of view is the key to prediction and estimation in appropriate infection situation analysis. In this study, we adopted a statistical multivariate analysis method (T method) that enables evaluation and prediction of important factors related to ERN estimation and analysis of phenomena that change in real time (time series analysis). It was clarified that it is possible to estimate with higher accuracy by applying the T method to the estimated value of ERN by the current SIR mathematical model.展开更多
Multi-source information fusion （MSIF） is imported into structural damage diagnosis methods to improve the validity of damage detection. After the introduction of the basic theory, the function model, classification...Multi-source information fusion （MSIF） is imported into structural damage diagnosis methods to improve the validity of damage detection. After the introduction of the basic theory, the function model, classifications and mathematical methods of MSIF, a structural damage detection method based on MSIF is presented, which is to fuse two or more damage character vectors from different structural damage diagnosis methods on the character-level. In an experiment of concrete plates, modal information is measured and analyzed. The structural damage detection method based on MSIF is taken to localize cracks of concrete plates and it is proved to be effective. Results of damage detection by the method based on MSIF are compared with those from the modal strain energy method and the flexibility method. Damage, which can hardly be detected by using the single damage identification method, can be diagnosed by the damage detection method based on the character-level MSIF technique. Meanwhile multi-location damage can be identified by the method based on MSIF. This method is sensitive to structural damage and different mathematical methods for MSIF have different preconditions and applicabilities for diversified structures. How to choose mathematical methods for MSIF should be discussed in detail in health monitoring systems of actual structures.展开更多
文摘Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. Since ERN in the Sequential SIR model fluctuates in multiple dimensions due to changes in the surrounding environment, it is difficult to set the appropriate accuracy of the uncertainty region of the estimated data. The challenge in this study is to build a mathematical model of infectious disease according to the characteristics and data characteristics of the infectious disease and select an appropriate estimation method. Highly accurate quantitative research that analyzes the validity of “how infectious diseases prevail” from an academic point of view is the key to prediction and estimation in appropriate infection situation analysis. In this study, we adopted a statistical multivariate analysis method (T method) that enables evaluation and prediction of important factors related to ERN estimation and analysis of phenomena that change in real time (time series analysis). It was clarified that it is possible to estimate with higher accuracy by applying the T method to the estimated value of ERN by the current SIR mathematical model.
基金The National High Technology Research and Develop-ment Program of China(863Program)(No.2006AA04Z416)the Na-tional Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(No.50725828)the Excellent Dissertation Program for Doctoral Degree of Southeast University(No.0705)
文摘Multi-source information fusion （MSIF） is imported into structural damage diagnosis methods to improve the validity of damage detection. After the introduction of the basic theory, the function model, classifications and mathematical methods of MSIF, a structural damage detection method based on MSIF is presented, which is to fuse two or more damage character vectors from different structural damage diagnosis methods on the character-level. In an experiment of concrete plates, modal information is measured and analyzed. The structural damage detection method based on MSIF is taken to localize cracks of concrete plates and it is proved to be effective. Results of damage detection by the method based on MSIF are compared with those from the modal strain energy method and the flexibility method. Damage, which can hardly be detected by using the single damage identification method, can be diagnosed by the damage detection method based on the character-level MSIF technique. Meanwhile multi-location damage can be identified by the method based on MSIF. This method is sensitive to structural damage and different mathematical methods for MSIF have different preconditions and applicabilities for diversified structures. How to choose mathematical methods for MSIF should be discussed in detail in health monitoring systems of actual structures.
