It is widely recognized that assessments of the status of data-poor fish stocks are challenging and that Bayesian analysis is one of the methods which can be used to improve the reliability of stock assessments in dat...It is widely recognized that assessments of the status of data-poor fish stocks are challenging and that Bayesian analysis is one of the methods which can be used to improve the reliability of stock assessments in data-poor situations through borrowing strength from prior information deduced from species with good-quality data or other known information. Because there is considerable uncertainty remaining in the stock assessment of albacore tuna（Thunnus alalunga） in the Indian Ocean due to the limited and low-quality data, we investigate the advantages of a Bayesian method in data-poor stock assessment by using Indian Ocean albacore stock assessment as an example. Eight Bayesian biomass dynamics models with different prior assumptions and catch data series were developed to assess the stock. The results show（1） the rationality of choice of catch data series and assumption of parameters could be enhanced by analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters;（2） the reliability of the stock assessment could be improved by using demographic methods to construct a prior for the intrinsic rate of increase（r）. Because we can make use of more information to improve the rationality of parameter estimation and the reliability of the stock assessment compared with traditional statistical methods by incorporating any available knowledge into the informative priors and analyzing the posterior distribution based on Bayesian framework in data-poor situations, we suggest that the Bayesian method should be an alternative method to be applied in data-poor species stock assessment, such as Indian Ocean albacore.展开更多
The explosion of online information with the recent advent of digital technology in information processing,information storing,information sharing,natural language processing,and text mining techniques has enabled sto...The explosion of online information with the recent advent of digital technology in information processing,information storing,information sharing,natural language processing,and text mining techniques has enabled stock investors to uncover market movement and volatility from heterogeneous content.For example,a typical stock market investor reads the news,explores market sentiment,and analyzes technical details in order to make a sound decision prior to purchasing or selling a particular company’s stock.However,capturing a dynamic stock market trend is challenging owing to high fluctuation and the non-stationary nature of the stock market.Although existing studies have attempted to enhance stock prediction,few have provided a complete decision-support system for investors to retrieve real-time data from multiple sources and extract insightful information for sound decision-making.To address the above challenge,we propose a unified solution for data collection,analysis,and visualization in real-time stock market prediction to retrieve and process relevant financial data from news articles,social media,and company technical information.We aim to provide not only useful information for stock investors but also meaningful visualization that enables investors to effectively interpret storyline events affecting stock prices.Specifically,we utilize an ensemble stacking of diversified machine-learning-based estimators and innovative contextual feature engineering to predict the next day’s stock prices.Experiment results show that our proposed stock forecasting method outperforms a traditional baseline with an average mean absolute percentage error of 0.93.Our findings confirm that leveraging an ensemble scheme of machine learning methods with contextual information improves stock prediction performance.Finally,our study could be further extended to a wide variety of innovative financial applications that seek to incorporate external insight from contextual information such as large-scale online news articles and social media data.展开更多
Big data technology is changing with each passing day,generating massive amounts of data every day.These data have large capacity,many types,fast growth,and valuable features.The same is true for the stock investment ...Big data technology is changing with each passing day,generating massive amounts of data every day.These data have large capacity,many types,fast growth,and valuable features.The same is true for the stock investment market.The growth of the amount of stock data generated every day is difficult to predict.The price trend in the stock market is uncertain,and the valuable information hidden in the stock data is difficult to detect.For example,the price trend of stocks,profit trends,how to make a reasonable speculation on the price trend of stocks and profit trends is a major problem that needs to be solved at this stage.This article uses the Python language to visually analyze,calculate,and predict each stock.Realize the integration and calculation of stock data to help people find out the valuable information hidden in stocks.The method proposed in this paper has been tested and proved to be feasible.It can reasonably extract,analyze and calculate the stock data,and predict the stock price trend to a certain extent.展开更多
Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series da...Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on shorttime stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.展开更多
To generate carbon credits under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation program（REDD＋）, accurate estimates of forest carbon stocks are needed. Carbon accounting efforts have focused on car...To generate carbon credits under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation program（REDD＋）, accurate estimates of forest carbon stocks are needed. Carbon accounting efforts have focused on carbon stocks in aboveground biomass（AGB）.Although wood specific gravity（WSG） is known to be an important variable in AGB estimates, there is currently a lack of data on WSG for Malagasy tree species. This study aimed to determine whether estimates of carbon stocks calculated from literature-based WSG values differed from those based on WSG values measured on wood core samples. Carbon stocks in forest biomass were assessed using two WSG data sets：（i） values measured from 303 wood core samples extracted in the study area,（ii） values derived from international databases. Results suggested that there is difference between the field and literaturebased WSG at the 0.05 level. The latter data set was on average 16 % higher than the former. However, carbon stocks calculated from the two data sets did not differ significantly at the 0.05 level. Such findings could be attributed to the form of the allometric equation used which gives more weight to tree diameter and tree height than to WSG. The choice of dataset should depend on the level of accuracy（Tier II or III） desired by REDD＋. As higher levels of accuracy are rewarded by higher prices, speciesspecific WSG data would be highly desirable.展开更多
Forecasting stock prices using deep learning models suffers from pro-blems such as low accuracy,slow convergence,and complex network structures.This study developed an echo state network(ESN)model to mitigate such pro...Forecasting stock prices using deep learning models suffers from pro-blems such as low accuracy,slow convergence,and complex network structures.This study developed an echo state network(ESN)model to mitigate such pro-blems.We compared our ESN with a long short-term memory(LSTM)network by forecasting the stock data of Kweichow Moutai,a leading enterprise in China’s liquor industry.By analyzing data for 120,240,and 300 days,we generated fore-cast data for the next 40,80,and 100 days,respectively,using both ESN and LSTM.In terms of accuracy,ESN had the unique advantage of capturing non-linear data.Mean absolute error(MAE)was used to present the accuracy results.The MAEs of the data forecast by ESN were 0.024,0.024,and 0.025,which were,respectively,0.065,0.007,and 0.009 less than those of LSTM.In terms of con-vergence,ESN has a reservoir state-space structure,which makes it perform faster than other models.Root-mean-square error(RMSE)was used to present the con-vergence time.In our experiment,the RMSEs of ESN were 0.22,0.27,and 0.26,which were,respectively,0.08,0.01,and 0.12 less than those of LSTM.In terms of network structure,ESN consists only of input,reservoir,and output spaces,making it a much simpler model than the others.The proposed ESN was found to be an effective model that,compared to others,converges faster,forecasts more accurately,and builds time-series analyses more easily.展开更多
Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision m...Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision model based on the forewarn of the market risk signal. Then, on probing into the structure and function of the realization of the model, the paper presents the method of data interface.展开更多
Stock Market is the market for security where organized issuance and trading of Stocks take place either through exchange or over the counter in electronic or physical form. It plays an important role in canalizing ca...Stock Market is the market for security where organized issuance and trading of Stocks take place either through exchange or over the counter in electronic or physical form. It plays an important role in canalizing capital from the investors to the business houses, which consequently leads to the availability of funds for business expansion. In this paper, we investigate to predict the daily excess returns of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) indices over the respective Treasury bill rate returns. Initially, we prove that the excess return time series do not fluctuate randomly. We are applying the prediction models of Autoregressive feed forward Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the excess return time series using lagged value. For the Artificial Neural Networks model using a Genetic Algorithm is constructed to choose the optimal topology. This paper examines the feasibility of the prediction task and provides evidence that the markets are not fluctuating randomly and finally, to apply the most suitable prediction model and measure their efficiency.展开更多
基金The Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission under contract No.14ZZ147the Opening Project of Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources(Shanghai Ocean University),Ministry of Education under contract No.A1-0209-15-0503-1
文摘It is widely recognized that assessments of the status of data-poor fish stocks are challenging and that Bayesian analysis is one of the methods which can be used to improve the reliability of stock assessments in data-poor situations through borrowing strength from prior information deduced from species with good-quality data or other known information. Because there is considerable uncertainty remaining in the stock assessment of albacore tuna（Thunnus alalunga） in the Indian Ocean due to the limited and low-quality data, we investigate the advantages of a Bayesian method in data-poor stock assessment by using Indian Ocean albacore stock assessment as an example. Eight Bayesian biomass dynamics models with different prior assumptions and catch data series were developed to assess the stock. The results show（1） the rationality of choice of catch data series and assumption of parameters could be enhanced by analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters;（2） the reliability of the stock assessment could be improved by using demographic methods to construct a prior for the intrinsic rate of increase（r）. Because we can make use of more information to improve the rationality of parameter estimation and the reliability of the stock assessment compared with traditional statistical methods by incorporating any available knowledge into the informative priors and analyzing the posterior distribution based on Bayesian framework in data-poor situations, we suggest that the Bayesian method should be an alternative method to be applied in data-poor species stock assessment, such as Indian Ocean albacore.
基金supported by Mahidol University(Grant No.MU-MiniRC02/2564)We also appreciate the partial computing resources from Grant No.RSA6280105funded by Thailand Science Research and Innovation(TSRI),(formerly known as the Thailand Research Fund(TRF)),and the National Research Council of Thailand(NRCT).
文摘The explosion of online information with the recent advent of digital technology in information processing,information storing,information sharing,natural language processing,and text mining techniques has enabled stock investors to uncover market movement and volatility from heterogeneous content.For example,a typical stock market investor reads the news,explores market sentiment,and analyzes technical details in order to make a sound decision prior to purchasing or selling a particular company’s stock.However,capturing a dynamic stock market trend is challenging owing to high fluctuation and the non-stationary nature of the stock market.Although existing studies have attempted to enhance stock prediction,few have provided a complete decision-support system for investors to retrieve real-time data from multiple sources and extract insightful information for sound decision-making.To address the above challenge,we propose a unified solution for data collection,analysis,and visualization in real-time stock market prediction to retrieve and process relevant financial data from news articles,social media,and company technical information.We aim to provide not only useful information for stock investors but also meaningful visualization that enables investors to effectively interpret storyline events affecting stock prices.Specifically,we utilize an ensemble stacking of diversified machine-learning-based estimators and innovative contextual feature engineering to predict the next day’s stock prices.Experiment results show that our proposed stock forecasting method outperforms a traditional baseline with an average mean absolute percentage error of 0.93.Our findings confirm that leveraging an ensemble scheme of machine learning methods with contextual information improves stock prediction performance.Finally,our study could be further extended to a wide variety of innovative financial applications that seek to incorporate external insight from contextual information such as large-scale online news articles and social media data.
基金supported by Hunan Provincial Education Science 13th Five Year Plan(Grant No.XJK016BXX001)Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province(Grant No.17YBA049)+2 种基金Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2017JJ2016)The work is also supported by Open foundation for University Innovation Platform from Hunan Province,China(Grant No.18K103)the 2011 Collaborative Innovation Center of Big Data for Financial and Economical Asset Development and Utility in Universities of Hunan Province.
文摘Big data technology is changing with each passing day,generating massive amounts of data every day.These data have large capacity,many types,fast growth,and valuable features.The same is true for the stock investment market.The growth of the amount of stock data generated every day is difficult to predict.The price trend in the stock market is uncertain,and the valuable information hidden in the stock data is difficult to detect.For example,the price trend of stocks,profit trends,how to make a reasonable speculation on the price trend of stocks and profit trends is a major problem that needs to be solved at this stage.This article uses the Python language to visually analyze,calculate,and predict each stock.Realize the integration and calculation of stock data to help people find out the valuable information hidden in stocks.The method proposed in this paper has been tested and proved to be feasible.It can reasonably extract,analyze and calculate the stock data,and predict the stock price trend to a certain extent.
文摘Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on shorttime stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.
基金supported by TWAS (The World Academy of Sciences) and CIRAD (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)
文摘To generate carbon credits under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation program（REDD＋）, accurate estimates of forest carbon stocks are needed. Carbon accounting efforts have focused on carbon stocks in aboveground biomass（AGB）.Although wood specific gravity（WSG） is known to be an important variable in AGB estimates, there is currently a lack of data on WSG for Malagasy tree species. This study aimed to determine whether estimates of carbon stocks calculated from literature-based WSG values differed from those based on WSG values measured on wood core samples. Carbon stocks in forest biomass were assessed using two WSG data sets：（i） values measured from 303 wood core samples extracted in the study area,（ii） values derived from international databases. Results suggested that there is difference between the field and literaturebased WSG at the 0.05 level. The latter data set was on average 16 % higher than the former. However, carbon stocks calculated from the two data sets did not differ significantly at the 0.05 level. Such findings could be attributed to the form of the allometric equation used which gives more weight to tree diameter and tree height than to WSG. The choice of dataset should depend on the level of accuracy（Tier II or III） desired by REDD＋. As higher levels of accuracy are rewarded by higher prices, speciesspecific WSG data would be highly desirable.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72073041)Open Foundation for the University Innovation Platform in Hunan Province(No.18K103)+2 种基金2011 Collaborative Innovation Center for Development and Utilization of Finance and Economics Big Data Property,Universities of Hunan Province,Open Project(Nos.20181901CRP03,20181901CRP04,20181901CRP05)2020 Hunan Provincial Higher Education Teaching Reform Research Project(Nos.HNJG-2020-1130,HNJG-2020-1124)2020 General Project of Hunan Social Science Fund(No.20B16).
文摘Forecasting stock prices using deep learning models suffers from pro-blems such as low accuracy,slow convergence,and complex network structures.This study developed an echo state network(ESN)model to mitigate such pro-blems.We compared our ESN with a long short-term memory(LSTM)network by forecasting the stock data of Kweichow Moutai,a leading enterprise in China’s liquor industry.By analyzing data for 120,240,and 300 days,we generated fore-cast data for the next 40,80,and 100 days,respectively,using both ESN and LSTM.In terms of accuracy,ESN had the unique advantage of capturing non-linear data.Mean absolute error(MAE)was used to present the accuracy results.The MAEs of the data forecast by ESN were 0.024,0.024,and 0.025,which were,respectively,0.065,0.007,and 0.009 less than those of LSTM.In terms of con-vergence,ESN has a reservoir state-space structure,which makes it perform faster than other models.Root-mean-square error(RMSE)was used to present the con-vergence time.In our experiment,the RMSEs of ESN were 0.22,0.27,and 0.26,which were,respectively,0.08,0.01,and 0.12 less than those of LSTM.In terms of network structure,ESN consists only of input,reservoir,and output spaces,making it a much simpler model than the others.The proposed ESN was found to be an effective model that,compared to others,converges faster,forecasts more accurately,and builds time-series analyses more easily.
文摘Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision model based on the forewarn of the market risk signal. Then, on probing into the structure and function of the realization of the model, the paper presents the method of data interface.
文摘Stock Market is the market for security where organized issuance and trading of Stocks take place either through exchange or over the counter in electronic or physical form. It plays an important role in canalizing capital from the investors to the business houses, which consequently leads to the availability of funds for business expansion. In this paper, we investigate to predict the daily excess returns of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) indices over the respective Treasury bill rate returns. Initially, we prove that the excess return time series do not fluctuate randomly. We are applying the prediction models of Autoregressive feed forward Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the excess return time series using lagged value. For the Artificial Neural Networks model using a Genetic Algorithm is constructed to choose the optimal topology. This paper examines the feasibility of the prediction task and provides evidence that the markets are not fluctuating randomly and finally, to apply the most suitable prediction model and measure their efficiency.
