Planning problems are challenging and complex in that they usually involve multiple stakeholders with multi-attribute preferences. Thus few, if any, planning tools are useful in helping planners address such problems....Planning problems are challenging and complex in that they usually involve multiple stakeholders with multi-attribute preferences. Thus few, if any, planning tools are useful in helping planners address such problems. Decision analysis is less useful than expected in dealing with planning problems because it focuses overwhelmingly on making a single decision for a particular decision-maker. In this paper, we describe the theoretical foundation of a planning tool called the 'decision network', which aims to help planners make multiple and linked decisions when facing multiple stakeholders with multi-attribute preferences. The research provides a starting point for a fully fledged technology that is useful for dealing with complex planning problems. We first provide a general formulation of the planning problem that the decision network intends to address. We then introduce an efficient solution algorithm for this problem, with a numerical example to demonstrate how the algorithm works. The proposed solution algorithm is efficient, allowing computerization of the planning tool. We also demonstrate that the diagrammatic representation of the decision network is more efficient than that of a decision tree. Therefore, when dealing with challenging and complex planning problems, using the decision network to make multiple and linked decisions may yield more benefits than making such decisions independently.展开更多
The transmission delay of realtime video packet mainly depends on the sensing time delay(short-term factor) and the entire frame transmission delay(long-term factor).Therefore,the optimization problem in the spectrum ...The transmission delay of realtime video packet mainly depends on the sensing time delay(short-term factor) and the entire frame transmission delay(long-term factor).Therefore,the optimization problem in the spectrum handoff process should be formulated as the combination of microscopic optimization and macroscopic optimization.In this paper,we focus on the issue of combining these two optimization models,and propose a novel Evolution Spectrum Handoff(ESH)strategy to minimize the expected transmission delay of real-time video packet.In the microoptimized model,considering the tradeoff between Primary User's(PU's) allowable collision percentage of each channel and transmission delay of video packet,we propose a mixed integer non-linear programming scheme.The scheme is able to achieve the minimum sensing time which is termed as an optimal stopping time.In the macro-optimized model,using the optimal stopping time as reward function within the partially observable Markov decision process framework,the EHS strategy is designed to search an optimal target channel set and minimize the expected delay of packet in the long-term real-time video transmission.Meanwhile,the minimum expected transmission delay is obtained under practical cognitive radio networks' conditions,i.e.,secondary user's mobility,PU's random access,imperfect sensing information,etc..Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the ESH strategy can effectively reduce the transmission delay of video packet in spectrum handoff process.展开更多
The construction industry is one of the major producers of municipal solid waste.Although there are many studies in municipal solid waste management,the research on the recovery of recyclable building material from co...The construction industry is one of the major producers of municipal solid waste.Although there are many studies in municipal solid waste management,the research on the recovery of recyclable building material from construction sites remains limited.This paper addresses the optimal design issue of the construction and demolition(C&D)waste logistics network based on the features of the construction industry from the contractors’perspective.The purpose of this paper is to provide an optimal C&D waste recycling network decision(RND)model considering the change of construction sites location over time.A multi-period and multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming model was developed to minimize the cost of C&D waste disposal for contractors,and to minimize the carbon emissions from C&D waste transportation.An application study was conducted to assess the performance of the RND model.Through some sensitivity analysis experiments based on an immune genetic algorithm,the influences of environmental policies and carbon tax policy on improving the recycling rate of C&D waste and reduce the carbon emission were explored.The findings of this research suggest that:(1)a RND model with the feature of the construction industry developed in this paper can effectively optimize the C&D waste logistics network;(2)government policies and laws are valid political instruments to improve the recycling rate of C&D waste;(3)the carbon-tax analyses demonstrate that a carbon tax policy can effectively reduce carbon emissions.展开更多
This study is aimed at the development of a statistical model for forecasting heavy rain in South Korea. For the 3-hour weather forecast system, the 10 km×10 km area-mean amount of rainfall at 6 stations (Seoul,...This study is aimed at the development of a statistical model for forecasting heavy rain in South Korea. For the 3-hour weather forecast system, the 10 km×10 km area-mean amount of rainfall at 6 stations (Seoul, Daejeon, Gangreung, (Jwangju, Busan, and Jeju) in South Korea are used. And the corresponding 45 synoptic factors generated by the numerical model are used as potential predictors. Four statistical forecast models (linear regression model, logistic regression model, neural network model and decision tree model) for the occurrence of heavy rain are based on the model output statistics (MOS) method. They are separately estimated by the same training data. The thresholds are considered to forecast the occurrence of heavy rain because the distribution of estimated values that are generated by each model is too skewed. The results of four models are compared via Heidke skill scores. As a result, the logistic regression model is recommended.展开更多
The aircraft condition monitoring network is responsible for collecting the status of each component in aircraft. The reliability of this network has a significant effect on safety of the aircraft. The aircraft condit...The aircraft condition monitoring network is responsible for collecting the status of each component in aircraft. The reliability of this network has a significant effect on safety of the aircraft. The aircraft condition monitoring network works in a real-time manner that all the data should be transmitted within the deadline to ensure that the control center makes proper decision in time. Only the connectedness between the source node and destination cannot guarantee the data to be transmitted in time. In this paper, we take the time deadline into account and build the task-based reliability model. The binary decision diagram (BDD), which has the merit of efficiency in computing and storage space, is introduced when calculating the reliability of the network and addressing the essential variable. A case is analyzed using the algorithm proposed in this paper. The experimental results show that our method is efficient and proper for the reliability analysis of the real-time network.展开更多
To solve the problem of information fusion from multiple sources in innovation alliances, an information fusion model based on the Bayesian network is presented. The multi-source information fusion process of innovati...To solve the problem of information fusion from multiple sources in innovation alliances, an information fusion model based on the Bayesian network is presented. The multi-source information fusion process of innovation alliances was classified into three layers, namely, the information perception layer, the feature clustering layer,and the decision fusion layer. The agencies in the alliance were defined as sensors through which information is perceived and obtained, and the features were clustered. Finally, various types of information were fused by the innovation alliance based on the fusion algorithm to achieve complete and comprehensive information. The model was applied to a study on economic information prediction, where the accuracy of the fusion results was higher than that from a single source and the errors obtained were also smaller with the MPE less than 3%, which demonstrates the proposed fusion method is more effective and reasonable. This study provides a reasonable basis for decision-making of innovation alliances.展开更多
基金supported by "the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan"(No.NSC101-2410-H305-066-MY2)
文摘Planning problems are challenging and complex in that they usually involve multiple stakeholders with multi-attribute preferences. Thus few, if any, planning tools are useful in helping planners address such problems. Decision analysis is less useful than expected in dealing with planning problems because it focuses overwhelmingly on making a single decision for a particular decision-maker. In this paper, we describe the theoretical foundation of a planning tool called the 'decision network', which aims to help planners make multiple and linked decisions when facing multiple stakeholders with multi-attribute preferences. The research provides a starting point for a fully fledged technology that is useful for dealing with complex planning problems. We first provide a general formulation of the planning problem that the decision network intends to address. We then introduce an efficient solution algorithm for this problem, with a numerical example to demonstrate how the algorithm works. The proposed solution algorithm is efficient, allowing computerization of the planning tool. We also demonstrate that the diagrammatic representation of the decision network is more efficient than that of a decision tree. Therefore, when dealing with challenging and complex planning problems, using the decision network to make multiple and linked decisions may yield more benefits than making such decisions independently.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.61301101
文摘The transmission delay of realtime video packet mainly depends on the sensing time delay(short-term factor) and the entire frame transmission delay(long-term factor).Therefore,the optimization problem in the spectrum handoff process should be formulated as the combination of microscopic optimization and macroscopic optimization.In this paper,we focus on the issue of combining these two optimization models,and propose a novel Evolution Spectrum Handoff(ESH)strategy to minimize the expected transmission delay of real-time video packet.In the microoptimized model,considering the tradeoff between Primary User's(PU's) allowable collision percentage of each channel and transmission delay of video packet,we propose a mixed integer non-linear programming scheme.The scheme is able to achieve the minimum sensing time which is termed as an optimal stopping time.In the macro-optimized model,using the optimal stopping time as reward function within the partially observable Markov decision process framework,the EHS strategy is designed to search an optimal target channel set and minimize the expected delay of packet in the long-term real-time video transmission.Meanwhile,the minimum expected transmission delay is obtained under practical cognitive radio networks' conditions,i.e.,secondary user's mobility,PU's random access,imperfect sensing information,etc..Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the ESH strategy can effectively reduce the transmission delay of video packet in spectrum handoff process.
基金financial support provided by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities-China(No.2018CDJSK03XK15)project support by the National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of China-China(No.18BJY06).
文摘The construction industry is one of the major producers of municipal solid waste.Although there are many studies in municipal solid waste management,the research on the recovery of recyclable building material from construction sites remains limited.This paper addresses the optimal design issue of the construction and demolition(C&D)waste logistics network based on the features of the construction industry from the contractors’perspective.The purpose of this paper is to provide an optimal C&D waste recycling network decision(RND)model considering the change of construction sites location over time.A multi-period and multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming model was developed to minimize the cost of C&D waste disposal for contractors,and to minimize the carbon emissions from C&D waste transportation.An application study was conducted to assess the performance of the RND model.Through some sensitivity analysis experiments based on an immune genetic algorithm,the influences of environmental policies and carbon tax policy on improving the recycling rate of C&D waste and reduce the carbon emission were explored.The findings of this research suggest that:(1)a RND model with the feature of the construction industry developed in this paper can effectively optimize the C&D waste logistics network;(2)government policies and laws are valid political instruments to improve the recycling rate of C&D waste;(3)the carbon-tax analyses demonstrate that a carbon tax policy can effectively reduce carbon emissions.
文摘This study is aimed at the development of a statistical model for forecasting heavy rain in South Korea. For the 3-hour weather forecast system, the 10 km×10 km area-mean amount of rainfall at 6 stations (Seoul, Daejeon, Gangreung, (Jwangju, Busan, and Jeju) in South Korea are used. And the corresponding 45 synoptic factors generated by the numerical model are used as potential predictors. Four statistical forecast models (linear regression model, logistic regression model, neural network model and decision tree model) for the occurrence of heavy rain are based on the model output statistics (MOS) method. They are separately estimated by the same training data. The thresholds are considered to forecast the occurrence of heavy rain because the distribution of estimated values that are generated by each model is too skewed. The results of four models are compared via Heidke skill scores. As a result, the logistic regression model is recommended.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (60879024)
文摘The aircraft condition monitoring network is responsible for collecting the status of each component in aircraft. The reliability of this network has a significant effect on safety of the aircraft. The aircraft condition monitoring network works in a real-time manner that all the data should be transmitted within the deadline to ensure that the control center makes proper decision in time. Only the connectedness between the source node and destination cannot guarantee the data to be transmitted in time. In this paper, we take the time deadline into account and build the task-based reliability model. The binary decision diagram (BDD), which has the merit of efficiency in computing and storage space, is introduced when calculating the reliability of the network and addressing the essential variable. A case is analyzed using the algorithm proposed in this paper. The experimental results show that our method is efficient and proper for the reliability analysis of the real-time network.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71472053,71429001,and91646105)
文摘To solve the problem of information fusion from multiple sources in innovation alliances, an information fusion model based on the Bayesian network is presented. The multi-source information fusion process of innovation alliances was classified into three layers, namely, the information perception layer, the feature clustering layer,and the decision fusion layer. The agencies in the alliance were defined as sensors through which information is perceived and obtained, and the features were clustered. Finally, various types of information were fused by the innovation alliance based on the fusion algorithm to achieve complete and comprehensive information. The model was applied to a study on economic information prediction, where the accuracy of the fusion results was higher than that from a single source and the errors obtained were also smaller with the MPE less than 3%, which demonstrates the proposed fusion method is more effective and reasonable. This study provides a reasonable basis for decision-making of innovation alliances.