Evaluating and selecting players to suit football clubs and decision-makers (coaches, managers, technical, and medical staff) is a difficult process from a managerial-financial and sporting perspective. Football is a ...Evaluating and selecting players to suit football clubs and decision-makers (coaches, managers, technical, and medical staff) is a difficult process from a managerial-financial and sporting perspective. Football is a highly competitive sport where sponsors and fans are attracted by success. The most successful players, based on their characteristics (criteria and sub-criteria), can influence the outcome of a football game at any given time. Consequently, the D-day of selection should employ a more appropriate approach to human resource management. To effectively address this issue, a detailed study and analysis of the available literature are needed to assist practitioners and professionals in making decisions about football player selection and hiring. Peer-reviewed journals were selected for collecting published papers between 2018 and 2023. A total of 66 relevant articles (journal articles, conference articles, book sections, and review articles) were selected for evaluation and analysis. The purpose of the study is to present a systematic literature review (SLR) on how to solve this problem and organize the published research papers that answer our four research questions.展开更多
Due to the numerous variables to take into account as well as the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty,evaluating educational institutions can be difficult.The concept of a possibility Pythagorean fuzzy hypersoft set(pP...Due to the numerous variables to take into account as well as the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty,evaluating educational institutions can be difficult.The concept of a possibility Pythagorean fuzzy hypersoft set(pPyFHSS)is more flexible in this regard than other theoretical fuzzy set-like models,even though some attempts have been made in the literature to address such uncertainties.This study investigates the elementary notions of pPyFHSS including its set-theoretic operations union,intersection,complement,OR-and AND-operations.Some results related to these operations are also modified for pPyFHSS.Additionally,the similarity measures between pPyFHSSs are formulated with the assistance of numerical examples and results.Lastly,an intelligent decision-assisted mechanism is developed with the proposal of a robust algorithm based on similarity measures for solving multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)problems.A case study that helps the decision-makers assess the best educational institution is discussed to validate the suggested system.The algorithmic results are compared with the most pertinent model to evaluate the adaptability of pPyFHSS,as it generalizes the classical possibility fuzzy set-like theoretical models.Similarly,while considering significant evaluating factors,the flexibility of pPyFHSS is observed through structural comparison.展开更多
Accurate medical diagnosis,which involves identifying diseases based on patient symptoms,is often hindered by uncertainties in data interpretation and retrieval.Advanced fuzzy set theories have emerged as effective to...Accurate medical diagnosis,which involves identifying diseases based on patient symptoms,is often hindered by uncertainties in data interpretation and retrieval.Advanced fuzzy set theories have emerged as effective tools to address these challenges.In this paper,new mathematical approaches for handling uncertainty in medical diagnosis are introduced using q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets(q-ROFS)and interval-valued q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets(IVq-ROFS).Three aggregation operators are proposed in our methodologies:the q-ROF weighted averaging(q-ROFWA),the q-ROF weighted geometric(q-ROFWG),and the q-ROF weighted neutrality averaging(qROFWNA),which enhance decision-making under uncertainty.These operators are paired with ranking methods such as the similarity measure,score function,and inverse score function to improve the accuracy of disease identification.Additionally,the impact of varying q-rung values is explored through a sensitivity analysis,extending the analysis beyond the typical maximum value of 3.The Basic Uncertain Information(BUI)method is employed to simulate expert opinions,and aggregation operators are used to combine these opinions in a group decisionmaking context.Our results provide a comprehensive comparison of methodologies,highlighting their strengths and limitations in diagnosing diseases based on uncertain patient data.展开更多
BACKGROUND Understanding a patient's clinical status and setting priorities for their care are two aspects of the constantly changing process of clinical decision-making.One analytical technique that can be helpfu...BACKGROUND Understanding a patient's clinical status and setting priorities for their care are two aspects of the constantly changing process of clinical decision-making.One analytical technique that can be helpful in uncertain situations is clinical judgment.Clinicians must deal with contradictory information,lack of time to make decisions,and long-term factors when emergencies occur.AIM To examine the ethical issues healthcare professionals faced during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic and the factors affecting clinical decision-making.METHODS This pilot study,which means it was a preliminary investigation to gather information and test the feasibility of a larger investigation was conducted over 6 months and we invited responses from clinicians worldwide who managed patients with COVID-19.The survey focused on topics related to their professional roles and personal relationships.We examined five core areas influencing critical care decision-making:Patients'personal factors,family-related factors,informed consent,communication and media,and hospital administrative policies on clinical decision-making.The collected data were analyzed using theχ2 test for categorical variables.RESULTS A total of 102 clinicians from 23 specialties and 17 countries responded to the survey.Age was a significant factor in treatment planning(n=88)and ventilator access(n=78).Sex had no bearing on how decisions were made.Most doctors reported maintaining patient confidentiality regarding privacy and informed consent.Approximately 50%of clinicians reported a moderate influence of clinical work,with many citing it as one of the most important factors affecting their health and relationships.Clinicians from developing countries had a significantly higher score for considering a patient's financial status when creating a treatment plan than their counterparts from developed countries.Regarding personal experiences,some respondents noted that treatment plans and preferences changed from wave to wave,and that there was a rapid turnover of studies and evidence.Hospital and government policies also played a role in critical decision-making.Rather than assessing the appropriateness of treatment,some doctors observed that hospital policies regarding medications were driven by patient demand.CONCLUSION Factors other than medical considerations frequently affect management choices.The disparity in treatment choices,became more apparent during the pandemic.We highlight the difficulties and contradictions between moral standards and the realities physicians encountered during this medical emergency.False information,large patient populations,and limited resources caused problems for clinicians.These factors impacted decision-making,which,in turn,affected patient care and healthcare staff well-being.展开更多
The critical role of patient-reported outcome measures(PROMs)in enhancing clinical decision-making and promoting patient-centered care has gained a profound significance in scientific research.PROMs encapsulate a pati...The critical role of patient-reported outcome measures(PROMs)in enhancing clinical decision-making and promoting patient-centered care has gained a profound significance in scientific research.PROMs encapsulate a patient's health status directly from their perspective,encompassing various domains such as symptom severity,functional status,and overall quality of life.By integrating PROMs into routine clinical practice and research,healthcare providers can achieve a more nuanced understanding of patient experiences and tailor treatments accordingly.The deployment of PROMs supports dynamic patient-provider interactions,fostering better patient engagement and adherence to tre-atment plans.Moreover,PROMs are pivotal in clinical settings for monitoring disease progression and treatment efficacy,particularly in chronic and mental health conditions.However,challenges in implementing PROMs include data collection and management,integration into existing health systems,and acceptance by patients and providers.Overcoming these barriers necessitates technological advancements,policy development,and continuous education to enhance the acceptability and effectiveness of PROMs.The paper concludes with recommendations for future research and policy-making aimed at optimizing the use and impact of PROMs across healthcare settings.展开更多
In view of the uncertainty of the monitored performance parameters of aeroengines, the fluctuating scope of the monitored infurmation during a period is taken as interval numbers, and the interval multi-attribute deci...In view of the uncertainty of the monitored performance parameters of aeroengines, the fluctuating scope of the monitored infurmation during a period is taken as interval numbers, and the interval multi-attribute decision-making method is employed to predict the performance of aeroengine, The synthetic weights of interval numbers are obtained by calculating deviation degree and possibility degree. As an example of application, 5 performance parameters monitored on 10 CF6 aeroengines of China Eastern Airlines Co., Ltd are adopted as decision attributes to verify the algorithm. The obtained synthetic ranking result shows the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed method in reflecting the performance stares of aeroengins.展开更多
This paper investigates the control systems and coordination mechanisms applied in the relationships between cruise line companies and terminal concessionaires in the cruise events management when the ships are stoppi...This paper investigates the control systems and coordination mechanisms applied in the relationships between cruise line companies and terminal concessionaires in the cruise events management when the ships are stopping on the quay. Using a case study methodology and focusing on the Italian context, this exploratory study, through a qualitative approach, interviewed two main cruise terminal concessionaires and indirectly observed events planned by cruise companies in sea ports selected for outlining the role of control systems, coordination, and knowledge sharing between the players in cruise events decision-making processes. The first results show that the cruise event management processes on ship berthing and on terminal are separated. The cruise companies don't involve terminal concessionaires in the event organization considering them only service suppliers Also, the concessionaires conceive the events planned in the cruise infrastructures as a business unit to optimize the space use, without any forms of coordination or control with cruise companies. Knowledge sharing, coordination, and control among the two players could support the planning, and management of "new cruise events" in which the visitors may be led from the infrastructure to the ships stopped on the quay. This study offers a set of key performance indicators to support the management, control, and coordination of each inter-organizational relationship identified. Managerial implications and suggestions for improving cruise events management have been provided.展开更多
The aim of this study was to describe the performance on a decision-making task of children and adolescents (aged 7 - 17 years) from a school in the city of Sogamoso. This non-experimental descriptive, cross-sectional...The aim of this study was to describe the performance on a decision-making task of children and adolescents (aged 7 - 17 years) from a school in the city of Sogamoso. This non-experimental descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted by means of a non probability sampling of type cases. The sample consisted of 325 subjects, to whom the Hungry Donkey Task in its version adapted for Colombia was applied. Through descriptive statistics, the test performance trend was established, finding that participants aged 7 to 11 years had better performance than adolescents 12 to 14 years old, which partially supports the hypothesis of decision-making development in J shape. Subjects aged 15 to 17 years had the most disadvantageous performance, which may indicate immaturity and slow development of prefrontal areas and the influence of the trend towards risk-taking, characteristic of this age range.展开更多
Light levels determine regeneration in stands and a key concern is how to regulate the light environment of different stand types to the requirements of the understory.In this study,we selected three stands typical in...Light levels determine regeneration in stands and a key concern is how to regulate the light environment of different stand types to the requirements of the understory.In this study,we selected three stands typical in south China(a Cryptomeria japonica plantation,a Quercus acutissima plantation,and a mixed stand of both)and three thinning intensities to determine the best understory light environ-ment for 3-year-old Phoebe bournei seedlings.The canopy structure,understory light environment,and photosynthe-sis and growth indicators were assessed following thin-ning.Thinning improved canopy structure and understory light availability of each stand;species composition was the reason for differences in the understory light environ-ment.Under the same thinning intensity,the mixed stand had the greatest light radiation and most balanced spectral composition.P.bournei photosynthesis and growth were closely related to the light environment;all three stands required heavy thinning to create an effective and sustained understory light environment.In a suitable understory light environment,the efficiency of light interception,absorption,and use by seedlings was enhanced,resulting in a higher carbon assimilation the main limiting factor was stomatal conductance.As a shade-avoidance signal,red/far-red radia-tion is a critical factor driving changes in photosynthesis and growth of P.bournei seedlings,and a reduction increased light absorption and use capacity and height:diameter ratios.The growth advantage transformed from diameter to height,enabling seedlings to access more light.Our findings suggest that the regeneration of shade-tolerant species such as P.bournei could be enhanced if a targeted approach to thinning based on stand type was adopted.展开更多
Decision-making and motion planning are extremely important in autonomous driving to ensure safe driving in a real-world environment.This study proposes an online evolutionary decision-making and motion planning frame...Decision-making and motion planning are extremely important in autonomous driving to ensure safe driving in a real-world environment.This study proposes an online evolutionary decision-making and motion planning framework for autonomous driving based on a hybrid data-and model-driven method.First,a data-driven decision-making module based on deep reinforcement learning(DRL)is developed to pursue a rational driving performance as much as possible.Then,model predictive control(MPC)is employed to execute both longitudinal and lateral motion planning tasks.Multiple constraints are defined according to the vehicle’s physical limit to meet the driving task requirements.Finally,two principles of safety and rationality for the self-evolution of autonomous driving are proposed.A motion envelope is established and embedded into a rational exploration and exploitation scheme,which filters out unreasonable experiences by masking unsafe actions so as to collect high-quality training data for the DRL agent.Experiments with a high-fidelity vehicle model and MATLAB/Simulink co-simulation environment are conducted,and the results show that the proposed online-evolution framework is able to generate safer,more rational,and more efficient driving action in a real-world environment.展开更多
Direct growth of redox-active noble metals and rational design of multifunctional electrochemical active materials play crucial roles in developing novel electrode materials for energy storage devices.In this regard,s...Direct growth of redox-active noble metals and rational design of multifunctional electrochemical active materials play crucial roles in developing novel electrode materials for energy storage devices.In this regard,silver(Ag)has attracted great attention in the design of efficient electrodes.Inspired by the house/building process,which means electing the right land,it lays a strong foundation and building essential columns for a complex structure.Herein,we report the construction of multifaceted heterostructure cobalt-iron hydroxide(CFOH)nanowires(NWs)@nickel cobalt manganese hydroxides and/or hydrate(NCMOH)nanosheets(NSs)on the Ag-deposited nickel foam and carbon cloth(i.e.,Ag/NF and Ag/CC)substrates.Moreover,the formation and charge storage mechanism of Ag are described,and these contribute to good conductive and redox chemistry features.The switching architectural integrity of metal and redox materials on metallic frames may significantly boost charge storage and rate performance with noticeable drop in resistance.The as-fabricated Ag@CFOH@NCMOH/NF electrode delivered superior areal capacity value of 2081.9μA h cm^(-2)at 5 mA cm^(-2).Moreover,as-assembled hybrid cell based on NF(HC/NF)device exhibited remarkable areal capacity value of 1.82 mA h cm^(-2)at 5 mA cm^(-2)with excellent rate capability of 74.77%even at 70 mA cm^(-2)Furthermore,HC/NF device achieved maximum energy and power densities of 1.39 mW h cm^(-2)and 42.35 mW cm^(-2),respectively.To verify practical applicability,both devices were also tested to serve as a self-charging station for various portable electronic devices.展开更多
The problem of prescribed performance tracking control for unknown time-delay nonlinear systems subject to output constraints is dealt with in this paper. In contrast with related works, only the most fundamental requ...The problem of prescribed performance tracking control for unknown time-delay nonlinear systems subject to output constraints is dealt with in this paper. In contrast with related works, only the most fundamental requirements, i.e., boundedness and the local Lipschitz condition, are assumed for the allowable time delays. Moreover, we focus on the case where the reference is unknown beforehand, which renders the standard prescribed performance control designs under output constraints infeasible. To conquer these challenges, a novel robust prescribed performance control approach is put forward in this paper.Herein, a reverse tuning function is skillfully constructed and automatically generates a performance envelop for the tracking error. In addition, a unified performance analysis framework based on proof by contradiction and the barrier function is established to reveal the inherent robustness of the control system against the time delays. It turns out that the system output tracks the reference with a preassigned settling time and good accuracy,without constraint violations. A comparative simulation on a two-stage chemical reactor is carried out to illustrate the above theoretical findings.展开更多
Solid solution-strengthened copper alloys have the advantages of a simple composition and manufacturing process,high mechanical and electrical comprehensive performances,and low cost;thus,they are widely used in high-...Solid solution-strengthened copper alloys have the advantages of a simple composition and manufacturing process,high mechanical and electrical comprehensive performances,and low cost;thus,they are widely used in high-speed rail contact wires,electronic component connectors,and other devices.Overcoming the contradiction between low alloying and high performance is an important challenge in the development of solid solution-strengthened copper alloys.Taking the typical solid solution-strengthened alloy Cu-4Zn-1Sn as the research object,we proposed using the element In to replace Zn and Sn to achieve low alloying in this work.Two new alloys,Cu-1.5Zn-1Sn-0.4In and Cu-1.5Zn-0.9Sn-0.6In,were designed and prepared.The total weight percentage content of alloying elements decreased by 43%and 41%,respectively,while the product of ultimate tensile strength(UTS)and electrical conductivity(EC)of the annealed state increased by 14%and 15%.After cold rolling with a 90%reduction,the UTS of the two new alloys reached 576 and 627MPa,respectively,the EC was 44.9%IACS and 42.0%IACS,and the product of UTS and EC(UTS×EC)was 97%and 99%higher than that of the annealed state alloy.The dislocations proliferated greatly in cold-rolled alloys,and the strengthening effects of dislocations reached 332 and 356 MPa,respectively,which is the main reason for the considerable improvement in mechanical properties.展开更多
In current practice of bolt reaming and anchoring of roadways in soft coal and rock mass,resin cartridges bend easily under the strong pushing and stirring of bolts,and the resin accumulates in the bolt-reamed area an...In current practice of bolt reaming and anchoring of roadways in soft coal and rock mass,resin cartridges bend easily under the strong pushing and stirring of bolts,and the resin accumulates in the bolt-reamed area and does not participate in the stirring.As a result,bolts encounter high drilling resistance and cannot reach the bottom of drillholes.The effective anchorage length is far less than the actual anchorage length.Bolts are not centered,and the shear is misaligned at the joint surface in the reaming area,which leads to cracking of the whole anchoring solid and large shear deformation of bolts.This study systematically analyzes the characteristics of roadway bolt reaming and anchoring.The influences of resin stirring force,bolt pull-out force,and reamingeanchoring solid strength on reamingeanchoring performance were analyzed theoretically.The main purpose is to develop a device that enhances reaming and anchoring.The mechanism through which the device strengthens the reamingeanchoring solid was analyzed theoretically.Numerical simulation and experiments were carried out to verify the improved performance of the small-pore reaming and anchoring using the proposed technology.The results showed that the stirring migration rate of the resin cartridge is greatly improved by adding the device to bolts.The reaction rate of the anchoring mixture,stirring pressure,pull-out force of the reaming and anchoring system,bolt concentricity,and shear and compressive strengths of the anchoring solid are also enhanced in the reaming area.This ensures that the resin cartridge in the reaming area is completely stirred,which greatly improves the shear resistance of the reamingeanchoring solid.Meanwhile,the drilling performance,torsional force,and stirring efficiency of bolts are maximized and prevail over those of conventional bolts.展开更多
Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and ...Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.展开更多
This paper studies the problem of time-varying formation control with finite-time prescribed performance for nonstrict feedback second-order multi-agent systems with unmeasured states and unknown nonlinearities.To eli...This paper studies the problem of time-varying formation control with finite-time prescribed performance for nonstrict feedback second-order multi-agent systems with unmeasured states and unknown nonlinearities.To eliminate nonlinearities,neural networks are applied to approximate the inherent dynamics of the system.In addition,due to the limitations of the actual working conditions,each follower agent can only obtain the locally measurable partial state information of the leader agent.To address this problem,a neural network state observer based on the leader state information is designed.Then,a finite-time prescribed performance adaptive output feedback control strategy is proposed by restricting the sliding mode surface to a prescribed region,which ensures that the closed-loop system has practical finite-time stability and that formation errors of the multi-agent systems converge to the prescribed performance bound in finite time.Finally,a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed algorithm.展开更多
The performance characteristics,particularly the starting performance of direct line-fed induction motors,which are mainly influenced by the design of the rotor,are crucial considerations for end-users.It is quite a c...The performance characteristics,particularly the starting performance of direct line-fed induction motors,which are mainly influenced by the design of the rotor,are crucial considerations for end-users.It is quite a challenging issue for motor manufacturers to enhance the starting performance of existing mass-produced motors with minimal modifications and expenses.In this paper,a simple and cost-effective method to improve the starting performance of a commercial squirrel-cage induction motor(SCIM)is proposed.The influence of geometric parameters of the end-ring on the performance characteristics,including starting(locked rotor)torque,pull-up and break down torque,starting current,rotor electric parameters,current density,power losses,and efficiency have been comprehensively investigated.It has been revealed that among the other end-ring design parameters,the ring thickness has a significant effect on the performance characteristics.An optimal end-ring thickness is determined,and its performance characteristics have been compared to those of its initial counterpart.Numeric and parametric analyses have been conducted using a 2D time-stepping finite element method(FEM).The FEM results were validated using experimental measurements obtained from an 11 kW SCIM prototype.展开更多
Aqueous zinc-ion batteries(AZIBs)are one of the most compelling alternatives of lithium-ion batteries due to their inherent safety and economics viability.In response to the growing demand for green and sustainable en...Aqueous zinc-ion batteries(AZIBs)are one of the most compelling alternatives of lithium-ion batteries due to their inherent safety and economics viability.In response to the growing demand for green and sustainable energy storage solutions,organic electrodes with the scalability from inexpensive starting materials and potential for biodegradation after use have become a prominent choice for AZIBs.Despite gratifying progresses of organic molecules with electrochemical performance in AZIBs,the research is still in infancy and hampered by certain issues due to the underlying complex electrochemistry.Strategies for designing organic electrode materials for AZIBs with high specific capacity and long cycling life are discussed in detail in this review.Specifically,we put emphasis on the unique electrochemistry of different redox-active structures to provide in-depth understanding of their working mechanisms.In addition,we highlight the importance of molecular size/dimension regarding their profound impact on electrochemical performances.Finally,challenges and perspectives are discussed from the developing point of view for future AZIBs.We hope to provide a valuable evaluation on organic electrode materials for AZIBs in our context and give inspiration for the rational design of high-performance AZIBs.展开更多
With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system.The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in th...With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system.The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in the field of human reliability analysis(HRA)to evaluate human reliability and assess risk in large complex systems.However,the classical SPAR-H method does not consider the dependencies among performance shaping factors(PSFs),whichmay cause overestimation or underestimation of the risk of the actual situation.To address this issue,this paper proposes a new method to deal with the dependencies among PSFs in SPAR-H based on the Pearson correlation coefficient.First,the dependence between every two PSFs is measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient.Second,the weights of the PSFs are obtained by considering the total dependence degree.Finally,PSFs’multipliers are modified based on the weights of corresponding PSFs,and then used in the calculating of human error probability(HEP).A case study is used to illustrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Ar...Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).展开更多
文摘Evaluating and selecting players to suit football clubs and decision-makers (coaches, managers, technical, and medical staff) is a difficult process from a managerial-financial and sporting perspective. Football is a highly competitive sport where sponsors and fans are attracted by success. The most successful players, based on their characteristics (criteria and sub-criteria), can influence the outcome of a football game at any given time. Consequently, the D-day of selection should employ a more appropriate approach to human resource management. To effectively address this issue, a detailed study and analysis of the available literature are needed to assist practitioners and professionals in making decisions about football player selection and hiring. Peer-reviewed journals were selected for collecting published papers between 2018 and 2023. A total of 66 relevant articles (journal articles, conference articles, book sections, and review articles) were selected for evaluation and analysis. The purpose of the study is to present a systematic literature review (SLR) on how to solve this problem and organize the published research papers that answer our four research questions.
基金supported by the Deanship of Graduate Studies and Scientific Research at Qassim University(QU-APC-2024-9/1).
文摘Due to the numerous variables to take into account as well as the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty,evaluating educational institutions can be difficult.The concept of a possibility Pythagorean fuzzy hypersoft set(pPyFHSS)is more flexible in this regard than other theoretical fuzzy set-like models,even though some attempts have been made in the literature to address such uncertainties.This study investigates the elementary notions of pPyFHSS including its set-theoretic operations union,intersection,complement,OR-and AND-operations.Some results related to these operations are also modified for pPyFHSS.Additionally,the similarity measures between pPyFHSSs are formulated with the assistance of numerical examples and results.Lastly,an intelligent decision-assisted mechanism is developed with the proposal of a robust algorithm based on similarity measures for solving multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)problems.A case study that helps the decision-makers assess the best educational institution is discussed to validate the suggested system.The algorithmic results are compared with the most pertinent model to evaluate the adaptability of pPyFHSS,as it generalizes the classical possibility fuzzy set-like theoretical models.Similarly,while considering significant evaluating factors,the flexibility of pPyFHSS is observed through structural comparison.
文摘Accurate medical diagnosis,which involves identifying diseases based on patient symptoms,is often hindered by uncertainties in data interpretation and retrieval.Advanced fuzzy set theories have emerged as effective tools to address these challenges.In this paper,new mathematical approaches for handling uncertainty in medical diagnosis are introduced using q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets(q-ROFS)and interval-valued q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets(IVq-ROFS).Three aggregation operators are proposed in our methodologies:the q-ROF weighted averaging(q-ROFWA),the q-ROF weighted geometric(q-ROFWG),and the q-ROF weighted neutrality averaging(qROFWNA),which enhance decision-making under uncertainty.These operators are paired with ranking methods such as the similarity measure,score function,and inverse score function to improve the accuracy of disease identification.Additionally,the impact of varying q-rung values is explored through a sensitivity analysis,extending the analysis beyond the typical maximum value of 3.The Basic Uncertain Information(BUI)method is employed to simulate expert opinions,and aggregation operators are used to combine these opinions in a group decisionmaking context.Our results provide a comprehensive comparison of methodologies,highlighting their strengths and limitations in diagnosing diseases based on uncertain patient data.
文摘BACKGROUND Understanding a patient's clinical status and setting priorities for their care are two aspects of the constantly changing process of clinical decision-making.One analytical technique that can be helpful in uncertain situations is clinical judgment.Clinicians must deal with contradictory information,lack of time to make decisions,and long-term factors when emergencies occur.AIM To examine the ethical issues healthcare professionals faced during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic and the factors affecting clinical decision-making.METHODS This pilot study,which means it was a preliminary investigation to gather information and test the feasibility of a larger investigation was conducted over 6 months and we invited responses from clinicians worldwide who managed patients with COVID-19.The survey focused on topics related to their professional roles and personal relationships.We examined five core areas influencing critical care decision-making:Patients'personal factors,family-related factors,informed consent,communication and media,and hospital administrative policies on clinical decision-making.The collected data were analyzed using theχ2 test for categorical variables.RESULTS A total of 102 clinicians from 23 specialties and 17 countries responded to the survey.Age was a significant factor in treatment planning(n=88)and ventilator access(n=78).Sex had no bearing on how decisions were made.Most doctors reported maintaining patient confidentiality regarding privacy and informed consent.Approximately 50%of clinicians reported a moderate influence of clinical work,with many citing it as one of the most important factors affecting their health and relationships.Clinicians from developing countries had a significantly higher score for considering a patient's financial status when creating a treatment plan than their counterparts from developed countries.Regarding personal experiences,some respondents noted that treatment plans and preferences changed from wave to wave,and that there was a rapid turnover of studies and evidence.Hospital and government policies also played a role in critical decision-making.Rather than assessing the appropriateness of treatment,some doctors observed that hospital policies regarding medications were driven by patient demand.CONCLUSION Factors other than medical considerations frequently affect management choices.The disparity in treatment choices,became more apparent during the pandemic.We highlight the difficulties and contradictions between moral standards and the realities physicians encountered during this medical emergency.False information,large patient populations,and limited resources caused problems for clinicians.These factors impacted decision-making,which,in turn,affected patient care and healthcare staff well-being.
文摘The critical role of patient-reported outcome measures(PROMs)in enhancing clinical decision-making and promoting patient-centered care has gained a profound significance in scientific research.PROMs encapsulate a patient's health status directly from their perspective,encompassing various domains such as symptom severity,functional status,and overall quality of life.By integrating PROMs into routine clinical practice and research,healthcare providers can achieve a more nuanced understanding of patient experiences and tailor treatments accordingly.The deployment of PROMs supports dynamic patient-provider interactions,fostering better patient engagement and adherence to tre-atment plans.Moreover,PROMs are pivotal in clinical settings for monitoring disease progression and treatment efficacy,particularly in chronic and mental health conditions.However,challenges in implementing PROMs include data collection and management,integration into existing health systems,and acceptance by patients and providers.Overcoming these barriers necessitates technological advancements,policy development,and continuous education to enhance the acceptability and effectiveness of PROMs.The paper concludes with recommendations for future research and policy-making aimed at optimizing the use and impact of PROMs across healthcare settings.
文摘In view of the uncertainty of the monitored performance parameters of aeroengines, the fluctuating scope of the monitored infurmation during a period is taken as interval numbers, and the interval multi-attribute decision-making method is employed to predict the performance of aeroengine, The synthetic weights of interval numbers are obtained by calculating deviation degree and possibility degree. As an example of application, 5 performance parameters monitored on 10 CF6 aeroengines of China Eastern Airlines Co., Ltd are adopted as decision attributes to verify the algorithm. The obtained synthetic ranking result shows the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed method in reflecting the performance stares of aeroengins.
文摘This paper investigates the control systems and coordination mechanisms applied in the relationships between cruise line companies and terminal concessionaires in the cruise events management when the ships are stopping on the quay. Using a case study methodology and focusing on the Italian context, this exploratory study, through a qualitative approach, interviewed two main cruise terminal concessionaires and indirectly observed events planned by cruise companies in sea ports selected for outlining the role of control systems, coordination, and knowledge sharing between the players in cruise events decision-making processes. The first results show that the cruise event management processes on ship berthing and on terminal are separated. The cruise companies don't involve terminal concessionaires in the event organization considering them only service suppliers Also, the concessionaires conceive the events planned in the cruise infrastructures as a business unit to optimize the space use, without any forms of coordination or control with cruise companies. Knowledge sharing, coordination, and control among the two players could support the planning, and management of "new cruise events" in which the visitors may be led from the infrastructure to the ships stopped on the quay. This study offers a set of key performance indicators to support the management, control, and coordination of each inter-organizational relationship identified. Managerial implications and suggestions for improving cruise events management have been provided.
文摘The aim of this study was to describe the performance on a decision-making task of children and adolescents (aged 7 - 17 years) from a school in the city of Sogamoso. This non-experimental descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted by means of a non probability sampling of type cases. The sample consisted of 325 subjects, to whom the Hungry Donkey Task in its version adapted for Colombia was applied. Through descriptive statistics, the test performance trend was established, finding that participants aged 7 to 11 years had better performance than adolescents 12 to 14 years old, which partially supports the hypothesis of decision-making development in J shape. Subjects aged 15 to 17 years had the most disadvantageous performance, which may indicate immaturity and slow development of prefrontal areas and the influence of the trend towards risk-taking, characteristic of this age range.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31870613)Guizhou Province High-level Innovative Talents Training Plan Project(2016)5661.
文摘Light levels determine regeneration in stands and a key concern is how to regulate the light environment of different stand types to the requirements of the understory.In this study,we selected three stands typical in south China(a Cryptomeria japonica plantation,a Quercus acutissima plantation,and a mixed stand of both)and three thinning intensities to determine the best understory light environ-ment for 3-year-old Phoebe bournei seedlings.The canopy structure,understory light environment,and photosynthe-sis and growth indicators were assessed following thin-ning.Thinning improved canopy structure and understory light availability of each stand;species composition was the reason for differences in the understory light environ-ment.Under the same thinning intensity,the mixed stand had the greatest light radiation and most balanced spectral composition.P.bournei photosynthesis and growth were closely related to the light environment;all three stands required heavy thinning to create an effective and sustained understory light environment.In a suitable understory light environment,the efficiency of light interception,absorption,and use by seedlings was enhanced,resulting in a higher carbon assimilation the main limiting factor was stomatal conductance.As a shade-avoidance signal,red/far-red radia-tion is a critical factor driving changes in photosynthesis and growth of P.bournei seedlings,and a reduction increased light absorption and use capacity and height:diameter ratios.The growth advantage transformed from diameter to height,enabling seedlings to access more light.Our findings suggest that the regeneration of shade-tolerant species such as P.bournei could be enhanced if a targeted approach to thinning based on stand type was adopted.
基金the financial support of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020AAA0108100)the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project(2021SHZDZX0100)the Shanghai Gaofeng and Gaoyuan Project for University Academic Program Development for funding。
文摘Decision-making and motion planning are extremely important in autonomous driving to ensure safe driving in a real-world environment.This study proposes an online evolutionary decision-making and motion planning framework for autonomous driving based on a hybrid data-and model-driven method.First,a data-driven decision-making module based on deep reinforcement learning(DRL)is developed to pursue a rational driving performance as much as possible.Then,model predictive control(MPC)is employed to execute both longitudinal and lateral motion planning tasks.Multiple constraints are defined according to the vehicle’s physical limit to meet the driving task requirements.Finally,two principles of safety and rationality for the self-evolution of autonomous driving are proposed.A motion envelope is established and embedded into a rational exploration and exploitation scheme,which filters out unreasonable experiences by masking unsafe actions so as to collect high-quality training data for the DRL agent.Experiments with a high-fidelity vehicle model and MATLAB/Simulink co-simulation environment are conducted,and the results show that the proposed online-evolution framework is able to generate safer,more rational,and more efficient driving action in a real-world environment.
基金supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF)grant funded by the Korean government (MSIP) (2018R1A6A1A03025708)。
文摘Direct growth of redox-active noble metals and rational design of multifunctional electrochemical active materials play crucial roles in developing novel electrode materials for energy storage devices.In this regard,silver(Ag)has attracted great attention in the design of efficient electrodes.Inspired by the house/building process,which means electing the right land,it lays a strong foundation and building essential columns for a complex structure.Herein,we report the construction of multifaceted heterostructure cobalt-iron hydroxide(CFOH)nanowires(NWs)@nickel cobalt manganese hydroxides and/or hydrate(NCMOH)nanosheets(NSs)on the Ag-deposited nickel foam and carbon cloth(i.e.,Ag/NF and Ag/CC)substrates.Moreover,the formation and charge storage mechanism of Ag are described,and these contribute to good conductive and redox chemistry features.The switching architectural integrity of metal and redox materials on metallic frames may significantly boost charge storage and rate performance with noticeable drop in resistance.The as-fabricated Ag@CFOH@NCMOH/NF electrode delivered superior areal capacity value of 2081.9μA h cm^(-2)at 5 mA cm^(-2).Moreover,as-assembled hybrid cell based on NF(HC/NF)device exhibited remarkable areal capacity value of 1.82 mA h cm^(-2)at 5 mA cm^(-2)with excellent rate capability of 74.77%even at 70 mA cm^(-2)Furthermore,HC/NF device achieved maximum energy and power densities of 1.39 mW h cm^(-2)and 42.35 mW cm^(-2),respectively.To verify practical applicability,both devices were also tested to serve as a self-charging station for various portable electronic devices.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (62103093)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFB3305905)+6 种基金the Xingliao Talent Program of Liaoning Province of China (XLYC2203130)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (N2108003)the Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province (2023-MS-087)the BNU Talent Seed Fund,UIC Start-Up Fund (R72021115)the Guangdong Key Laboratory of AI and MM Data Processing (2020KSYS007)the Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory IRADS for Data Science (2022B1212010006)the Guangdong Higher Education Upgrading Plan 2021–2025 of “Rushing to the Top,Making Up Shortcomings and Strengthening Special Features” with UIC Research,China (R0400001-22,R0400025-21)。
文摘The problem of prescribed performance tracking control for unknown time-delay nonlinear systems subject to output constraints is dealt with in this paper. In contrast with related works, only the most fundamental requirements, i.e., boundedness and the local Lipschitz condition, are assumed for the allowable time delays. Moreover, we focus on the case where the reference is unknown beforehand, which renders the standard prescribed performance control designs under output constraints infeasible. To conquer these challenges, a novel robust prescribed performance control approach is put forward in this paper.Herein, a reverse tuning function is skillfully constructed and automatically generates a performance envelop for the tracking error. In addition, a unified performance analysis framework based on proof by contradiction and the barrier function is established to reveal the inherent robustness of the control system against the time delays. It turns out that the system output tracks the reference with a preassigned settling time and good accuracy,without constraint violations. A comparative simulation on a two-stage chemical reactor is carried out to illustrate the above theoretical findings.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFB3803101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52022011,51974028,and 52090041)+1 种基金the Xiaomi Young Scholars ProgramChina National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(No.BX20230042)。
文摘Solid solution-strengthened copper alloys have the advantages of a simple composition and manufacturing process,high mechanical and electrical comprehensive performances,and low cost;thus,they are widely used in high-speed rail contact wires,electronic component connectors,and other devices.Overcoming the contradiction between low alloying and high performance is an important challenge in the development of solid solution-strengthened copper alloys.Taking the typical solid solution-strengthened alloy Cu-4Zn-1Sn as the research object,we proposed using the element In to replace Zn and Sn to achieve low alloying in this work.Two new alloys,Cu-1.5Zn-1Sn-0.4In and Cu-1.5Zn-0.9Sn-0.6In,were designed and prepared.The total weight percentage content of alloying elements decreased by 43%and 41%,respectively,while the product of ultimate tensile strength(UTS)and electrical conductivity(EC)of the annealed state increased by 14%and 15%.After cold rolling with a 90%reduction,the UTS of the two new alloys reached 576 and 627MPa,respectively,the EC was 44.9%IACS and 42.0%IACS,and the product of UTS and EC(UTS×EC)was 97%and 99%higher than that of the annealed state alloy.The dislocations proliferated greatly in cold-rolled alloys,and the strengthening effects of dislocations reached 332 and 356 MPa,respectively,which is the main reason for the considerable improvement in mechanical properties.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Liaoning Joint Fund Key Project(Grant No.U1908222)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Science Fund(Grant No.52104087).
文摘In current practice of bolt reaming and anchoring of roadways in soft coal and rock mass,resin cartridges bend easily under the strong pushing and stirring of bolts,and the resin accumulates in the bolt-reamed area and does not participate in the stirring.As a result,bolts encounter high drilling resistance and cannot reach the bottom of drillholes.The effective anchorage length is far less than the actual anchorage length.Bolts are not centered,and the shear is misaligned at the joint surface in the reaming area,which leads to cracking of the whole anchoring solid and large shear deformation of bolts.This study systematically analyzes the characteristics of roadway bolt reaming and anchoring.The influences of resin stirring force,bolt pull-out force,and reamingeanchoring solid strength on reamingeanchoring performance were analyzed theoretically.The main purpose is to develop a device that enhances reaming and anchoring.The mechanism through which the device strengthens the reamingeanchoring solid was analyzed theoretically.Numerical simulation and experiments were carried out to verify the improved performance of the small-pore reaming and anchoring using the proposed technology.The results showed that the stirring migration rate of the resin cartridge is greatly improved by adding the device to bolts.The reaction rate of the anchoring mixture,stirring pressure,pull-out force of the reaming and anchoring system,bolt concentricity,and shear and compressive strengths of the anchoring solid are also enhanced in the reaming area.This ensures that the resin cartridge in the reaming area is completely stirred,which greatly improves the shear resistance of the reamingeanchoring solid.Meanwhile,the drilling performance,torsional force,and stirring efficiency of bolts are maximized and prevail over those of conventional bolts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52079046).
文摘Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62203356)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(31020210502002)。
文摘This paper studies the problem of time-varying formation control with finite-time prescribed performance for nonstrict feedback second-order multi-agent systems with unmeasured states and unknown nonlinearities.To eliminate nonlinearities,neural networks are applied to approximate the inherent dynamics of the system.In addition,due to the limitations of the actual working conditions,each follower agent can only obtain the locally measurable partial state information of the leader agent.To address this problem,a neural network state observer based on the leader state information is designed.Then,a finite-time prescribed performance adaptive output feedback control strategy is proposed by restricting the sliding mode surface to a prescribed region,which ensures that the closed-loop system has practical finite-time stability and that formation errors of the multi-agent systems converge to the prescribed performance bound in finite time.Finally,a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed algorithm.
文摘The performance characteristics,particularly the starting performance of direct line-fed induction motors,which are mainly influenced by the design of the rotor,are crucial considerations for end-users.It is quite a challenging issue for motor manufacturers to enhance the starting performance of existing mass-produced motors with minimal modifications and expenses.In this paper,a simple and cost-effective method to improve the starting performance of a commercial squirrel-cage induction motor(SCIM)is proposed.The influence of geometric parameters of the end-ring on the performance characteristics,including starting(locked rotor)torque,pull-up and break down torque,starting current,rotor electric parameters,current density,power losses,and efficiency have been comprehensively investigated.It has been revealed that among the other end-ring design parameters,the ring thickness has a significant effect on the performance characteristics.An optimal end-ring thickness is determined,and its performance characteristics have been compared to those of its initial counterpart.Numeric and parametric analyses have been conducted using a 2D time-stepping finite element method(FEM).The FEM results were validated using experimental measurements obtained from an 11 kW SCIM prototype.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.22075027,52003030)Starting Grant from Beijing Institute of Technology and financial support from the State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology(YBKT21-06,YKBT23-05).
文摘Aqueous zinc-ion batteries(AZIBs)are one of the most compelling alternatives of lithium-ion batteries due to their inherent safety and economics viability.In response to the growing demand for green and sustainable energy storage solutions,organic electrodes with the scalability from inexpensive starting materials and potential for biodegradation after use have become a prominent choice for AZIBs.Despite gratifying progresses of organic molecules with electrochemical performance in AZIBs,the research is still in infancy and hampered by certain issues due to the underlying complex electrochemistry.Strategies for designing organic electrode materials for AZIBs with high specific capacity and long cycling life are discussed in detail in this review.Specifically,we put emphasis on the unique electrochemistry of different redox-active structures to provide in-depth understanding of their working mechanisms.In addition,we highlight the importance of molecular size/dimension regarding their profound impact on electrochemical performances.Finally,challenges and perspectives are discussed from the developing point of view for future AZIBs.We hope to provide a valuable evaluation on organic electrode materials for AZIBs in our context and give inspiration for the rational design of high-performance AZIBs.
基金Shanghai Rising-Star Program(Grant No.21QA1403400)Shanghai Sailing Program(Grant No.20YF1414800)Shanghai Key Laboratory of Power Station Automation Technology(Grant No.13DZ2273800).
文摘With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system.The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in the field of human reliability analysis(HRA)to evaluate human reliability and assess risk in large complex systems.However,the classical SPAR-H method does not consider the dependencies among performance shaping factors(PSFs),whichmay cause overestimation or underestimation of the risk of the actual situation.To address this issue,this paper proposes a new method to deal with the dependencies among PSFs in SPAR-H based on the Pearson correlation coefficient.First,the dependence between every two PSFs is measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient.Second,the weights of the PSFs are obtained by considering the total dependence degree.Finally,PSFs’multipliers are modified based on the weights of corresponding PSFs,and then used in the calculating of human error probability(HEP).A case study is used to illustrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by the Chinese–Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project,MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project,COMBINED (Grant No.328935)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075030)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1314)。
文摘Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).