A method for determining the layout of a yaw system based on the Delphi method and the analytic hierarchy process

Wind power technology has been widely used due to its characteristics of environmental protection,sustainability and low cost.The yaw system plays a vital role in improving the energy capture efficiency of a wind turbine.However,the method of layout deter­mination is lacking in the yaw system.To solve this problem,a method that combines the Delphi method and the analytic hierarchy process was proposed in this study.Twelve evaluation indexes,including transmission efficiency,ratio range,operating tempera­ture range and others,were identified by screening 18 technical indicators using the Delphi method.Subsequently,the evaluation system of the yaw system was established.Then,six configuration schemes were selected.Experts’scores of schemes were collected according to the evaluation system and the score matrix of evaluation indexes was obtained.The hierarchical model of the evalu­ation indexes of the yaw system was established and the comprehensive weight was obtained by using the analytic hierarchy pro­cess.After calculating the comprehensive evaluation score,the comprehensive evaluation result was obtained.The 2Z-X(A)negative mechanism,which achieved the highest score of 0.9227,is the optimal scheme.A new method and specific process are provided for designers.The research gap in the scheme selection method for yaw systems is filled.

Delphi and Analytic hierarchy process for the construction of a risk assessment index system for post-stroke shoulder-hand syndrome

Background:Shoulder-hand syndrome(SHS)is one of the common complications after stroke,which is difficult to cure once it occurs.Early risk identification is an effective measure to prevent and treat SHS,but there is no effective tool to assess the risk assessment of SHS.Objective:To develop a validated tool to assess the risk of SHS occurrence after stroke.Methods:This was an observational study with a 3-step process:(1)Literature review to establish initial indicators;(2)Application of a modified Delphi method for two rounds of correspondence,with final indicators obtained by modifying each round based on expert opinion;(3)Application of hierarchical analysis to determine the weights of each indicator.Results:The initial literature review constructed4 primary indicators and 24 secondary indicators;after the first round of Delphi,a total of 10 secondary indicators were deleted and 6 secondary indicators were added,and the final indicators included 3 primary indicators and 15 secondary indicators,and in the second round,consensus was reached;by AHP analysis,the highest weight was given to existing risk factors(0.5584),followed by relevant medical history(0.3196);lastly,demographic factors(0.1220),and the scores of other secondary indicators met the requirements.Conclusion:This study establishes and constructs a post-stroke SHS risk assessment tool,which provides a basis for early identification of SHS and early intervention.Meanwhile,this study provides a methodological reference for the development of other indicatorssets.

Research and application of sidewall stability predic-tion method based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy integrative evaluation method

As a difficult problem, sidewall instability has been beset drilling workers all the time. Not only does it cause huge economic losses, but also it determines the success or failure of drilling engineering. Due to complex relationship between various factors which influence sidewall stability, it hasn’t been found a widely applied method to predicate sidewall stability so far. Therefore, in order to formulate corresponding measures to ensure successful drilling, searching for a kind of better method to forecast sidewall stability before drilling becomes an imperative and significant topic for drilling engineering. On the basis of traditional sidewall stability analytical method, we have put forward the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to forecast sidewall stability regulation using physico-chemical performance parameters of the clay mineral. This method has been improved by introducing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Maximum Subjection Principle in the application process. After introducing Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify weight, and Maximum Subjection Principle to obtain evaluation results, it has reduced the influence of human factors and enhanced the accuracy of the fuzzy evaluation results. The application in Hailaer Area indicates that this method can predict sidewall stability of gas-oil well with high credibility and strong practicability.

Assessment of Effects of Green Construction by Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Synthetic Judgment Method

The index system, code system, and weights of indexes are established to assess the effects of green construction. The index system consists of index level, factor level and sub-factor level. The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weights of indexes, and the consistency test indicate that the weight assignment is reasonable. Using fuzzy synthetic judgment method, the assessment model is built, which includes factor set, weight set and conclusion set. An example is given to demonstrate the assessment procedures.

Sustainable food waste management using modified fuzzy improved analytic hierarchy process:a study of Malaysia

Food waste generation is a pressing issue that requires urgent attention and concerted efforts worldwide.The staggering amount of food wasted each year not only wastes valuable resources but also exacerbates environmental,economic,and social challenges.Food Waste Management(FWM)consists of a complex array of criteria and sub-criteria,and treatments which seems interdependent.There is a need to evaluate the FWM with the help of important criteria and sub-criteria and treatments to address this challenge.In this study,we identified four important criteria,21 sub-criteria,and four alternatives of FWM for the case of Malaysia using the integrated approach of literature review and expert opinions.Further,we employed the approach of Modified Fuzzy Improved Analytical Hierarchy Process(IAHP)to corroborate the interrelationships among the identified criteria and sub-criteria,and their associated treatments.This study undertakes linear normalization methods to transform data into comparable numerical values and the Geometric Mean method to handle uncertainty in human judgments.Moreover,the Centroid method is employed to convert fuzzy weights into crisp sets for ease of interpretation.The results indicate that environmental is the most essential criterion,followed by social,economic,and technical.In addition,air and water pollution is identified as the most critical sub-criteria.Black Soldier Fly is discovered as the most sustainable FWM treatment,since it performs the best while meeting all the criteria and sub-criteria assessed.Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the outputs from the proposed method are robust and reliable.The finding suggests a proper and robust approach to help decision-makers select suitable FWM treatments to tackle various criteria and alternatives especially when handling inconsistent and uncertain judgments during evaluation.

Method of Estimating Human Error Probabilities in Construction for Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Failure Likelihood Index Method

Human error(HE) is the most important factor influencing on structural safety because its effect often exceeds the random deviation.Large numbers of facts have shown that structural failures may be caused by the gross error due to HE.So it is essential to analyze HE in construction.The crucial work of human error analysis(HEA) is the estimation of human error probability(HEP) in construction.The method for estimating HEP,analytic hierarchy process and failure likelihood index method(AHP-FLIM),is introduced in this paper.The method also uses the process of expert judgment within the failure likelihood index method(FLIM).A numerical example shows the effectiveness of the methods proposed.

A Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Kinematic Accuracy of Space Manipulator Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

The kinematic accuracy of space manipulator determines whether the spacecraft performs normally or not. Problems pertaining to structural deformation have received increased attention in recent times. In the space manipulator systems, flexible arms and joints can induce drastic dynamic instabilities. In applications such as the space station, kinematic error due to structural deformation can jointly affect the performance characteristics. And it is crucial for accuracy control of space manipulator to establish a precision index. Here we analyze the dynamics characteristic of flexible space manipulator considering the hysteresis of harmonic reducer based on method of nonconstraint boundary modal. For the sake of describing the output accuracy, we integrate the method of analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to establish a comprehensive evaluation index. A numerical simulation is performed to analyze the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of space manipulator with harmonic reducer. With the analysis of accuracy assessment, the relation among the hysteresis angle, rigidity and output accuracy is revealed. Considering the elastic modulus of flexible space manipulator and the hysteresis angle of harmonic reducer, we conduct an evaluation of output characteristics of flexible space manipulator with the proposed comprehensive evaluation index. The accuracy evaluation of output characteristics based on the proposed comprehensive evaluation index is implemented in the initial stage of space manipulator's design, which can not only solve the problems existing in the design but also save cost savings for ground tests. The results can be used in designing and optimizing future space manipulators, which may provide valuable references for design and thermal control of the space manipulator.

基于Delphi-AHP的轻武器训练安全风险因素分析

轻武器是军队数量最多、使用频率最高,也是训练中出现安全事故较多的一类装备。为解决轻武器训练安全风险因素缺乏量化分析的问题,采用“Delphi构建指标-AHP确定权重-事故分析对比验证”的方法,首次构建了轻武器训练安全评价指标体系,系统分析风险因素。结果表明:基于Delphi-AHP确定的指标权重与事故分析结果较为一致,研究方法科学合理;轻武器训练风险性高、影响因素多,需重点考虑人员和管理因素,关注受训者技能水平、受训者安全意识、组织指挥、风险评估及隐患排查等因素,组训时需考虑不同种类轻武器风险因素差异。

基于AHP-Delphi法的黄河山西段水土流失治理生态效益评价研究

针对黄河山西段水土流失问题,对山西采取的水土流失治理措施进行梳理。基于AHP法与Delphi法构建起包含三个评价层次、十二个指标层的水土流失治理生态效益综合评价体系,详细分析各指标含义及计算方法,并对该体系的一致性进行检验,计算各指标的权重,对无量纲化处理过后的各指标进行分值量化,结合评价等级标准,最终得出结论:治理后总体评分为81.61分,评价等级为Ⅳ级。说明山西多年来对省内水土流失问题的整治取得了良好效益,有效缓解了水土流失问题。

Application of Choquet Integral-Importance-Performance Analysis and TOPSIS Methods in Approaching the Preference Factors of Calligraphy and Seal Engraving Imagery

Classical Chinese characters,presented through calligraphy,seal engraving,or painting,can exhibit different aesthetics and essences of Chinese characters,making them the most important asset of the Chinese people.Calligraphy and seal engraving,as two closely related systems in traditional Chinese art,have developed through the ages.Due to changes in lifestyle and advancements in modern technology,their original functions of daily writing and verification have gradually diminished.Instead,they have increasingly played a significant role in commercial art.This study utilizes the Evaluation Grid Method(EGM)and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to research the key preference factors in the application of calligraphy and seal engraving imagery.Different from the traditional 5-point equal interval semantic questionnaire,this study employs a non-equal interval semantic questionnaire with a golden ratio scale,distinguishing the importance ratio of adjacent semantic meanings and highlighting the weighted emphasis on visual aesthetics.Additionally,the study uses Importance-Performance Analysis(IPA)and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)to obtain the key preference sequence of calligraphy and seal engraving culture.Plus,the Choquet integral comprehensive evaluation is used as a reference for IPA comparison.It is hoped that this study can provide cultural imagery references and research methods,injecting further creativity into industrial design.

利用Delphi法和层次分析法构建医学援外培训效果评价指标体系

目的科学构建医学援外培训效果评价指标体系,为精准评价医学援外培训效果提供有效参考。方法在系统分析案例单位承办的91期援外培训项目交流座谈纪要和学员满意度调查问卷的基础上,初步制定了医学援外培训效果评价指标体系草案,再采用Delphi法进行专家咨询,通过问卷回收率和权威系数分别反映专家积极性和权威性;专家意见集中程度用条目相关性均值和CV表示,专家意见协调程度用肯德尔协调系数(Kendall’s W值)表示。最终制定的医学援外培训效果评价指标体系共包含4个一级指标(反应层、学习层、行为层和结果层),11个二级指标(培训需求、培训内容和培训师资等)和42个三级指标(驻外机构服务、基础技能考核及新技术新业务开展情况等)。结果三轮咨询均发放18份问卷,每轮均收回18份,回收率100%。第一、第二、第三轮专家咨询的判断系数(Ca)分别为0.906,0.883,0.911,熟悉程度系数(Cs)分别为0.789,0.878,0.878,三轮专家咨询的权威系数分别为0.847,0.881,0.895。以属性必要性为例,第一轮一级指标、二级指标、三级指标的专家意见协调程度的Kendall’s W值分别为0.021,0.032,0.133,显著性检验结果显示差异有统计学意义(P<0.001);第二轮一级指标、二级指标、三级指标的专家意见协调程度的Kendall’s W值分别为0.143,0.055,0.158;第三轮一级指标、二级指标、三级指标的专家意见协调程度的Kendall’s W值分别为0.149,0.099,0.171。结论采用Delphi法和层次分析法构建医学援外培训效果评价指标体系具有较高的科学性,可作为客观评价医学援外培训效果的工具。

基于Delphi-AHP法构建经尿道前列腺切除手术关键技术评价量表

目的构建经尿道前列腺切除手术(TURP)关键技术评价量表,为科学评价TURP手术技能提供工具。方法于2022年6月选取21位来自国内不同地区的泌尿外科及医学教育领域专家作为函询对象,通过德尔菲(Delphi)专家咨询法确定评价指标,通过层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)确定各项指标的权重及赋值。结果函询专家权威程度(Cr)为0.92,积极系数100%,协调系数为0.434(P<0.001)。形成包括7个一级指标、20个二级指标的TURP评价量表。层次分析结果显示,本研究的一致性比例CR为0.01,满足一致性检验。结论本研究构建的TURP关键技术评价量表科学可信,可为客观评价TURP手术技能提供工具。

基于Delphi法的临床学科评估指标体系构建

目的构建三级综合医院临床学科评估指标体系。方法2018年1—6月间,新疆维吾尔自治区人民医院采用专题小组讨论法德尔菲法进行三轮专家咨询调查,确定3个层级的临床学科评估指标;运用层次分析法建立层次结构模型,构建两两比较判断矩阵,确定3个层级指标权重。结果构建了涵盖5个一级指标、17个二级指标和53个三级指标的临床学科评估指标体系;其中5个一级指标医疗能力和质量、人才队伍、科研教学能力、学科声誉、运行效率的权重值分别为0.276、0.167、0.201、0.133、0.223。结论本研究的指标设置明确合理,权重系数精准稳定,评价体系全面可靠,为医院临床学科的评估、管理提供科学的量化依据。

Alunite processing method selection using the AHP and TOPSIS approaches under fuzzy environment

Alunite is the most important non bauxite resource for alumina. Various methods have been proposed and patented for processing alunite, but none has been performed at industrial scale and no technical,operational and economic data is available to evaluate methods. In addition, selecting the right approach for alunite beneficiation, requires introducing a wide range of criteria and careful analysis of alternatives.In this research, after studying the existing processes, 13 methods were considered and evaluated by 14 technical, economic and environmental analyzing criteria. Due to multiplicity of processing methods and attributes, in this paper, Multi Attribute Decision Making methods were employed to examine the appropriateness of choices. The Delphi Analytical Hierarchy Process(DAHP) was used for weighting selection criteria and Fuzzy TOPSIS approach was used to determine the most profitable candidates. Among 13 studied methods, Spanish, Svoronos and Hazan methods were respectively recognized to be the best choices.

Analysis of Landscape Vitality of Historical and Cultural Blocks Based on AHPFuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method:A Case Study of Daopashi Street in Anqing City

Historical and cultural blocks are witnesses of history and inheritors of culture. As one of the main spaces for outdoor interaction in historical and cultural blocks, the improvement of its vitality is of great significance for the improvement of residential environment and the better inheritance of history and culture. Taking Daopashi Street in Anqing City as an example, an evaluation model of landscape spatial vitality of historical and cultural blocks was constructed from three aspects of viewing function, store status and service facilities, and analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the index weight and vaguely evaluate the landscape spatial vitality of historical and cultural blocks. The results show that through the comparison of weight, architectural style(0.317), the practicability of service facilities(0.168) and plant landscape(0.165) had a significant impact on the landscape spatial vitality of historical and cultural blocks,and the landscape spatial vitality of historical and cultural blocks in Daopashi Street in Anqing City was at a good level.

基于Delphi-Fuzzy丘陵地区农机服务质量评价体系研究

科学客观地评价农机服务质量能促进农业机械化良性发展,采用五要素和五维度理论为基础,提出基于德尔菲法和模糊综合评价法相结合的数学模型(Delphi-Fuzzy)构建丘陵地区农机服务质量评价体系;遴选丘陵地区农机服务质量评价指标共计17项,配合层次分析法(AHP)修正Delphi模型,并利用SPSS和MATLAB软件求解模型,得到综合评价值为0.371 8;再根据最大隶属度原则,得到该企业的农机服务质量评定为“优秀”等级,同时“一般”和“差”评价等级的评价值为0.236 8,占比23.68%,说明具有一定的改进空间。根据赋值法对排名靠后的5项指标(ZB4、ZB7、ZB8、ZB12、ZB15)确定改进方向,后期需继续优化农机结构,降低零部件磨损程度,增强人员专业程度、提供个性化服务,增强优惠保障力度、提高售后服务质量,创新售后维修手段、优化流程等。

基于层次分析法-德尔菲法的高价值专利筛选研究——以稀土永磁产业为例

高价值专利作为知识产权强国建设的压舱石,对其进行筛选及评估具有重要的现实意义。构建涵盖经济-技术-法律-战略“四维一体”的高价值专利评价指标体系,综合运用层次分析法和德尔菲法,依托DPS数据处理系统为指标赋权,以大为(Innojoy)专利数据库为数据源进行检索,筛选永磁材料高价值专利。将排名前10位的高价值专利呈现作为模拟现实示例以供参考。对比DPI指数,发现高价值专利筛选结果高度吻合。本评价体系及方法适用于从海量专利中遴选出高价值专利,可为产业相关从业人员及研究者判别技术实力、进行专利资产管理及聚焦技术创新研究提供一种可供参考的专利筛选方式。

基于密切值决策方法的伊阿铁路走向规划研究

铁路线路方案比选是复杂的多目标决策问题,科学合理的开展线路方案比选对合理确定线路走向极其重要。采用改进密切值决策方法作为铁路线路方案比选的理论支撑,选取建筑长度、桥隧总长、伊阿铁路投资、路网中区域3条铁路的总投资、覆盖经济据点、运量吸引及路网布局等7个因子作为评价指标,利用层次分析法计算评价因子的权重,引入欧氏距离概念得到各方案与最优点和最劣点的“距离”,并计算相应的密切值,进而对线路方案排序择优。以新建伊宁至阿克苏铁路线路走向方案比选为例,结合上述理论方法进行实例研究。研究表明,采用层次分析法计算评价因子权重,采用改进密切值决策方法对方案进行排序择优具有逻辑严谨、形象客观等特点,该方法是适用于铁路线路方案比选的理论方法。

精神科住培医师置信职业行为评价指标体系的构建

目的:置信职业行为指受训者具备被信任的能力后,能够独立执行和完成的具体临床任务。本研究构建适合精神科住培医师置信职业行为评价指标体系,为制定培训策略及考核标准提供参考依据。方法:通过文献分析、半结构访谈建立精神科住培医师置信职业行为条目库,对全国7所国家级住培基地、3所医学院校的63名精神科领域专家进行德尔菲咨询,全面筛选与整理指标,并结合层次分析法确定各级指标及其权重。结果:构建了包括4个一级指标、17个二级指标、68个三级指标在内具有层次性的精神科住培医师置信职业行为评价指标体系,并确定了一、二、三级指标的权重。结论:置信职业行为评价指标体系全面系统、贴合临床工作、便于实际应用,能够为精神科住培医师考核提供量化标准,促进培训质量的提高。

组合赋权法在卷烟机综合性能评价中应用

【目的】客观准确地评价卷烟机设备性能,从质量水平、消耗水平和效能水平3个维度出发,构建设备综合性能评价指标体系和组合赋权评价模型。【方法】利用最大熵原理给出最优组合系数和方案评价计算步骤。开展Topsis方法、层次分析法、熵值法和组合赋权法在卷烟机设备综合性能评价的实例分析和比较工作。【结果】4种方法具有显著正相关关系,评价结果满足一致性。组合赋权法与其他评价方法相比具有最优组合系数和误差平方和小优势。