Hog Production in China:Technological Bias and Factor Demand

Technological change and factor biases are estimated by employing a translog cost function based on a new adjusted dataset for China’s hog production sector. Technological change is found not to have been neutral and the factor bias to be statistically significant towards feed grain-saving technology. It is also found that the demand for feed grain is elastic with respect to its own price and that strong substitution relationships exist with respect to some other inputs. Thus, along with technological biases, the changes in input price could affect hog farmer input behaviors and therefore change factor shares of hog production cost in China. In other words, demand for feed grain is very elastic, which results in feed grain-saving technological bias. Two major policy implications can be drawn that rising feed grain prices could significantly reduce the feed grain input on hog farms and developing specialized hog farms could provide more employment opportunities for rural labor in China because feed grain and labor are complementary.

Analysis of the Influence Factors of Grain Supply-Demand Gap in China

Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates the correlation degree between the main grain varieties’ supply and demand gap and its influence factors. The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice. From the analysis results, we can obtain the difference between the factors affecting the grain supply and demand gap, and provide a certain theoretical basis and new ideas for the balance of grain supply and demand in China.

Factors Affecting Electricity Demand in Jordan

1) The paper examines the relationship between electricity demand and climate/non-climate related factors using statistical regression analysis. 2) It focuses on the environmental, demographic, policy (energy pricing) and technological factors as the main factors affecting the consumption pattern in Jordan. 3) The paper also presents the variations occurred in the electricity demand over the period 1994-2008. The variations that are observed during the period of study are: Shifting of the peak load occurrence from evening to morning period, Modification in the annual daily load curve especially in winter season, Variation in relationship between space temperature and demand especially in winter, and dramatic increase in electric generation after year 2003. The shift in peak load from evening to morning period is mainly due to technological factor as a result of wide use of the air conditions in houses, services and government offices for cooling in summer instead of ordinary air fans. The variations in consumption pattern between 2000 and 2007 are mainly associated with economic, social and demographic factors. The high demand at lower space temperature is governed by introducing new appliances for heating in winter as a result of low electricity pricing comparing with gasoline price. The dramatic increase in electric generation after 2003 is probably due to demographic factors as a result of high growth of population after the Gulf war II. 4) The correlation between the daily maximum loads in morning and evening periods with the differential temperature (ΔT) above 20?C threshold in summer and below 15?C threshold in winter, shows pronounced changes in 2007 compared with year 2000. The regression tests show that a decrease of 1?C below 15?C threshold in winter 1) increases the morning demand by only 2 MW/?C in 2000 and 16.7 MW/?C in 2007, 2) decreases the evening peak by ?2.6 MW/1?C in 2000 and increases the evening peak by 22.9 MW/1?C in 2007. Results show that the demographic, technological, environmental and national energy pricing factors play a vital rule in consumption pattern in Jordan. Moreover, the paper reveals that planners and decision makers should be careful when applying new tariff in the developing countries such as Jordan.

Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of Rural Households' Credit and Loan Demand——Investigation Based on Jianhu County, Jiangsu Province

By using the relevant data from 273 valid questionnaires of rural households in Jianhu County, Jiangsu Province, this study emphasizes on the factors of rural households' credit and loan demand by Probit model. The results show that the factors that influencing the credit demand of rural households include the features of the rural households, the economic activities of rural households and so on. Among the factors, the operation expenditure of rural households, the education degree of the household head and the understanding degree of the rural credit policies have great impact on the rural households' credit and loan demand. In the end, the suggestions on the basis of the research are put forward: developing diversified economy; improving rural households' income; increasing the reserve of rural labor resources and enhancing farmers' quality; strengthening the promotion of rural credit cooperative and perfecting the service quality of rural credit cooperative.

Effect of structural characteristics distribution on strength demand and ductility reduction factor of MDOF systems considering soil-structure interaction

It is known that structural stiffness and strength distributions have an important role in the seismic response of buildings. The effect of using different code-specified lateral load patterns on the seismic performance of fixed-base buildings has been investigated by researchers during the past two decades. However, no investigation has yet been carried out for the case of soil-structure systems. In the present study, through intensive parametric analyses of 21,600 linear and nonlinear MDOF systems and considering five different shear strength and stiffness distribution patterns, including three code-specified patterns as well as uniform and concentric patterns subjected to a group of earthquakes recorded on alluvium and soft soils, the effect of structural characteristics distribution on the strength demand and ductility reduction factor of MDOF fixed-base and soil-structure systems are parametrically investigated. The results of this study show that depending on the level of inelasticity, soil flexibility and number of degrees-of-freedoms (DOFs), structural characteristics distribution can significantly affect the strength demand and ductility reduction factor of MDOF systems. It is also found that at high levels of inelasticity, the ductility reduction factor of low-rise MDOF soil-structure systems could be significantly less than that of fixed-base structures and the reduction is less pronounced as the number of stories increases.

Study on learning intention and influencing factors of rural demand - oriented junior medical students in Yunnan province

[目的] 探讨农村订单定向专科医学生的学习意愿及影响因素,为改善该群体的学习意愿提供依据. [方法]采取分层整群抽样方法抽取就读于云南省3所高职（ 专） 医学院校的413名农村订单定向专科医学生 为调查对象,采用调查问卷进行现场调查,调查内容包括基本情况、学习意愿、学习动力、报考原因等. [结果] 52. 96%的农村订单定向专科医学生学习意愿弱;学习动力来源主要是适应以后工作、获取知识技能、 报答父母辛勤付出;二分类Logistic回归结果显示,农村订单定向专科医学的学习意愿受到多种因素影响. [结论]农村订单定向专科医学生的学习意愿不强,需通过营造学习氛围、严格教学管理、专业思想教育、完 善招考政策进行引导和改善.

公立三甲医院医师继续医学教育现状及存在问题与对策

目的了解公立三甲医院医师继续医学教育的现状,探讨存在的问题以及对策,为后续制定针对性的继续教育项目,提升继续教育质量提供科学依据。方法选取百色市右江区三所公立三甲医院的220名医师作为研究对象,对其进行问卷调查,采集一般人口学资料、对开展继续教育的内容和形式需求,并分析影响参加继续教育的相关因素。此外,选取15人进行半结构式访谈,了解目前公立三甲医院医师继续医学教育存在的主要问题。结果共发出问卷220份,有效问卷208份,有效回收率94.5%。单因素分析结果显示,年龄、性别、职称和学历与公立三甲医院医师对继续教育必要性认知有关(P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄30~<40岁(β=1.704,P=0.033,OR=2.927,95%CI=1.092~7.845)、中级职称(β=1.211,P=0.029,OR=3.357,95%CI=1.133~9.943)以及单位认为继续教育必要的态度(β=1.369,P<0.001,OR=3.931,95%CI=2.390~6.468)是影响三甲医院医师参加继续教育的独立影响因素。公立三甲医院医师在继续教育的内容、形式、时长和费用分担上有一定的倾向。既往参加过继续教育的116名研究对象满意度仅为61.2%。研究对象认为目前继续教育存在的主要问题集中在科室支持力度不够、继续教育的内容和形式个性化不足、工作太忙没有时间、精力参与继续教育。结论公立三甲医院医师继续教育必要性的认知还有加强,医院以及科室也要积极主动地为其提供继续教育的条件和机会。此外,继续教育的管理部门应根据参与继续教育的学员特点,提供个性化、满足其需求的培训方案,优化全区的继续教育体系,更好地促进公立三甲医院医师继续教育的质量提升。

女士皮鞋外观设计需求驱动方式建构

目的 为了科学评价并划分女士皮鞋外观要素的需求类型,将用户需求要素量化分析得出其权重值,从而指导女士皮鞋外观设计,进而提升用户满意度,并构建出以用户需求为驱动方式的女士皮鞋外观设计模型。方法 首先,通过多渠道调研将女士皮鞋及其外观设计要素进行合理分类;其次,制作李克特量表以调研用户外观需求评价,应用Kano模型划分用户外观需求属性类别;最后,借助AHP层次分析法建构女士皮鞋外观要素需求分析模型,计算归纳出不同种类皮鞋各层级外观需求权重,并通过国内外优秀案例检验方法的合理性。结论 建立Kano-AHP的用户需求驱动方式,针对女士皮鞋外观设计要素对其重要度分类进行量化排序,得出女式皮鞋各外观要素在设计评价中的相对权重值,对鞋靴类产品外观设计有现实意义。

Education Demand of New Generation Minority Migrant Workers in Kunming City and Survey of its Influence Factors

Based on the questionnaire survey for 431 new generation minority migrant workers in Kunming City,we carried out empirical research on education demands of these migrant workers and its influence factors.Survey results show that their education demands have significant features in learning purposes,contents,expenses,willingness,and manners,which are subject to subjective mentality,economic income,social relation network,as well as shortage in social supply of education and training.Therefore,apart from solving training problem of new generation minority migrant workers,government should also highly value their demands of training and arouse their enthusiasm for participation in training in accordance with cultural and psychological characteristics and living environment of these migrant workers.

考虑超碳需求响应的综合能源系统低碳优化调度

西北地区新能源发展迅速,充分利用当地独有的光热资源优势,同时结合火电低碳化改造与新能源协同运行,有利于推动当地能源系统绿色低碳转型。为尽最大限度地提升系统的减碳能力,提出一种基于源荷协同降碳的超碳需求响应模型,将动态碳排放因子作为分时电价的惩罚因子,从而将源侧碳信号传递至荷侧,驱使用户侧进行低碳性状态转移。首先,在日前调度阶段,构建预调度-再调度两阶段调度运行机制,再调度根据预调度的系统状态信息进行超碳需求响应,来深度降低系统碳排量。其次,将光热电站引入综合能源系统,与风电场、碳捕集电厂协同运行,从而构建高比例新能源场景,来验证超碳需求响应在此场景下的减碳效益。最后,建立了基于超碳需求响应的预调度-再调度两阶段低碳调度模型。经算例仿真分析表明,所提源荷协同降碳的新思路能有效提高系统的减碳能力,深入挖掘系统的降碳空间,提升系统的经济效益。

数字经济赋能新质生产力:一个分析框架

新质生产力以颠覆性技术创新为主导力量,以战略性新兴产业为核心载体,具有鲜明的人民性、协调性和开放性特征。依托数字经济缓解“需求不足、供给过剩、预期偏弱”这三重约束是新质生产力发展的重要进路。文章在探讨数字经济赋能新质生产力的应然性依据的基础上,在传统“需求-供给”二分法框架内纳入经济社会环境因素,构建“需求侧-供给侧-环境侧”三维分析框架,藉此探讨数字经济赋能新质生产力的内在机理。分析认为:数字经济可通过提升颠覆性技术创新水平、驱动战略性新兴产业创新发展和契合新质生产力应然特征三种途径赋能新质生产力。文章的政策含义是:要大力发展数字经济,努力形成数字经济、颠覆性技术创新与战略性新兴产业间的良性互动。

石家庄市裕华区老年人对“互联网+护理服务”的需求现状和影响因素

目的响应石家庄市卫生健康委员会对本市“互联网+护理服务”试点工作开展的号召,使“互联网+护理服务”能更大程度惠及裕华区老年人群。方法在查阅文献的基础上,设计石家庄市裕华区老年人对“互联网+护理服务”需求的调查问卷。运用SPSS 27.0统计学软件对数据进行整理与分析,探究石家庄市裕华区老年人对“互联网+护理服务”的需求现状和影响因素。结果地区、是否了解“护士上门服务”、文化程度、月医疗费用和居住状况均是裕华区老人使用“互联网+护理服务”需求的独立影响因素(P<0.05),而年龄对需求无影响(P>0.05)。结论裕华区老年人对“互联网+护理服务”的知晓比例偏低,但存在较高的真实需求且需求多样。建议建立市场化的宣传推广机制,同时要对上门护士进行全面、严格的“互联网+”专项资质认证及能力评估。

基于主要驱动因子筛选法和深度学习算法的浙江省动态需水量预测

收集了浙江省2000—2020年各用水行业需水量数据,采用基于Spearman秩相关分析的主要驱动因子筛选法筛选了影响各行业需水量的主要驱动因子,进而构造了改进的长短时记忆(LSTM)神经网络需水量预测模型,对各行业需水量进行动态滚动预测,并将改进LSTM模型的预测结果与传统单变量LSTM预测模型、卷积神经网络模型、支持向量回归模型的预测结果进行了对比。结果表明,基于主要驱动因子筛选法改进的LSTM模型能实时动态滚动预测各行业每年需水量,且预测结果精度高于其他3种模型。

基准排放因子更新对隧道需风量的影响研究

为解决交通车辆持续更新导致的城市隧道内通风系统设计浪费和运营闲置,研究基准排放因子更新对隧道需风量的影响,并建立2种应对车辆更新的基准排放因子计算方法.首先,通过理论分析明确需风量计算式中随时间更新的关键参数为基准排放因子;随后,根据定量分析得到基准排放因子和纵坡-车速系数更新对需风量的影响;最后,结合国外理念和实际设计经验,提出2种考虑时间更新的基准排放因子计算方法.研究结果表明:我国道路隧道通风设计规范在制定基准排放因子时参考了世界道路协会(PIARC)通风报告,并分析得到了参考理由;与2000年相比,2021年的CO、NOx和PM基准排放限值分别降低了81.6%、76.7%和97.9%;建立了使用机动车污染物排放限值作为基准排放因子的最不利设计方法,计算出2018年各污染物基准排放因子(CO为0.0011 m^(3)/(辆·km),PM为0.4610 m^(2)/(辆·km)),相比于2014年《细则》分别降低84.3%和77.0%.建立并验证了基准排放因子计算方法,为城市道路隧道通风系统设计提供参考.

无人机物流城市末端配送需求关键影响因素探索

无人机物流城市末端配送(DLULD)能有效解决传统末端配送存在的问题,更好地满足消费者需求。然而,DLULD需求受哪些因素影响,关键因素间的逻辑尚不清晰,直接限制了具体业务的推广与改进。通过文献研究构建需求影响因素指标体系,并首次将决策实验室-综合对抗解释结构模型引入DLULD研究,分析因素间关系与层级结构,找到提升DLULD服务的关键抓手,有助于物流业整体降本增效。结果表明:需求受到顶层、中间层和底层三层因素共同作用,并应重点关注服务可靠性、努力期望、绩效期望、交付风险和体积五个关键因素。据此提出,DLULD应从建立健全管理机制、把控运输风险,推动无人机技术持续发展、提高公众认知度,加强智能化水平建设、实现数字化管理等方面进行优化。

金沙江梯级库区生态系统服务供需耦合协调度及驱动因素

[目的]探索金沙江梯级水电工程库区生态系统服务供需关系的时空演变规律及其驱动因素,为水电工程库区生态管理提供决策支撑。[方法]基于金沙江梯级水电工程库区土地利用、人口、国内生产总值、归一化植被指数和降水量等数据,采用市场价值法、耦合协调度模型和地理加权回归模型等方法,开展库区生态系统服务供需耦合协调度及其驱动因素研究。[结果]2005—2019年期间库区生态系统服务价值增加了6.8亿元,总量达到了917亿元。生态系统服务供需严重失调和重度失调的区域,主要分布于金沙江北岸的四川省境内,勉强协调和良好协调的区域主要分布于金沙江南岸的云南省境内。植被覆盖对库区生态系统服务供需耦合度呈现正向驱动关系,人口和地形起伏度为负向驱动关系,降水量对库区北部局部地区为正向驱动关系,其余地区为负向驱动关系。[结论]库区生态系统服务供需耦合协调度呈现南高北低的空间分布特征,且受多重因素影响,未来应加强水电工程库区生态系统服务研究。

四川省居民婴幼儿托育机构需求及影响因素分析

目的:探讨四川省居民对不同类型托育机构的需求及其影响因素,为提升托育服务的供需适配性提供政策建议。方法:本研究为横断面调查,研究对象为2020年11~12月,通过多阶段整群方便抽样获得四川全省21个市(州)183个县(市、区)准备生育或送托的城乡居民样本,由卫生健康主管部门组织社工对调查对象实施自填电子问卷。对居民托育机构需求类型、可能的影响因素进行统计描述,采用卡方检验和二元Logistic回归分析进行统计检验。结果:本研究共纳入19 934名调查对象。户籍、居住地、收入水平会影响居民对托育机构需求,其中户籍为城镇的居民相较于乡村居民,更多选择企事业单位内设托育机构(OR=1.49,95%CI:1.34~1.67);居住地为主城区,城乡结合区,乡、镇的居民,相较乡村的居民,更多选择企事业单位内设托育机构(主城区:OR=1.94,95%CI:1.62~2.32;城乡结合区:OR=1.64,95%CI:1.35~1.98;乡、镇:OR=1.78,95%CI:1.53~2.08)和商业民办托育机构(主城区:OR=2.83,95%CI:2.27~3.53;城乡结合区:OR=2.64,95%CI:2.10~3.32;乡、镇:OR=1.42,95%CI:1.16~1.74);居住为主城区、城乡结合区的居民,相对于乡村居民,更多选择小区内家庭托育(主城区:OR=1.24,95%CI:1.02~1.51;城乡结合区:OR=1.35,95%CI:1.11~1.64);家庭月收入小于1万元的居民(69.92%),相对于3万元以上的居民(10.22%),选择商业民办托育机构更少(OR=0.67,95%CI:0.55~0.81);家庭月收入1~3万元的居民(19.87%),相对于3万元以上的居民(10.22%),选择幼儿园内设托育机构更少(OR=0.85,95%CI:0.74~0.96)。结论:应大力发展幼儿园内设托育并以之为主体;鼓励有条件的企事业单位内设托育机构;适度发展小区内家庭托育点和商业民办托育机构。

社会经济因素对老年长期照护方式选择的影响:基于安德森健康行为模型的实证研究

目的分析需要长期照护老年人的基本特征,探究老年人群选择长期照护方式的潜在影响因素,为预先优化对应的照护服务提供理论依据。方法利用中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查数据,选择“社会化长期照护”或“非正式的家庭照护”为被解释变量,以修正的安德森健康行为模型为理论分析框架,采用logistic回归模型探究前倾因素、使能因素、需求因素对选择长期照护方式的影响。结果需要长期照护的65岁及以上老年人中,848名(16.68%)选择社会化长期照护,4236名(83.32%)选择家庭照护;5084名老年人中,87.43%为80岁及以上,64.10%为女性,79.85%为未婚/丧偶/离异,67.54%为农村户籍,80.76%享受医疗保险,69.81%患有慢性病。小学以上受教育程度、未婚/丧偶/离异、东部/东北部、南方、城市地区、高收入、享受离退休待遇、未参加医疗保险、所在社区提供生活照料服务的老年人,更加倾向于选择社会化长期照护(P<0.05)。结论家庭照护是我国长期照护的主要方式,选择何种长期照护方式主要受受教育程度、婚姻状况、家庭规模、医疗保险等因素的影响。建议以社区为平台基础,整合养老生活照料和医养资源,深入发挥家庭在长期照护中的积极作用。

NSICU过渡期患者家属需求现况调查及影响因素分析

目的调查神经外科重症监护室(NSICU)过渡期患者家属需求现状,并分析其影响因素,为开展下一步的干预措施提供理论依据。方法采用便利抽样法选取2022年11月至2023年4月该院收治的NSICU过渡期患者家属115例作为研究对象。采取一般资料调查问卷、ICU过渡期患者家属需求量表、ICU转出患者家属迁移应激量表分别对患者家属进行调查。结果115例患者家属平均ICU过渡期患者家属需求量表得分为(100.17±8.38)分,与ICU转出患者家属迁移应激量表总分呈正相关,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。有无照顾经验、患者入住NSICU方式、迁移应激水平为NSICU过渡期患者家属需求的影响因素,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论NSICU过渡期患者家属需求水平较高,医护人员应对患者家属有无照顾经验、患者入住NSICU方式、迁移应激等因素实施个体化干预,以满足患者家属的需求。

Influence factors of international gold futures price volatility

Based on the commodity property and finance property of gold in the international gold futures market,the influence factors of international gold futures price volatility are analyzed from the perspectives of supply and demand factors,financial factors and speculation factors.The structural vector autoregression(SVAR)model is applied to investigating the direction and strength of the effects of influence factors on the international gold futures prices and the variance decomposition approach(VDA)is used to compare the contributions of these factors.The results show that the supply and demand factors still play a fundamental role in the international gold futures price volatility and the role of“China’s gold demand”is exaggerated.The financial factors and speculation factors have significant impacts on the international gold futures price volatility,which reflects that the financial property of gold becomes increasingly important.Governments and investors should pay close attention to the financial property of gold futures.