Within the framework of endogenous growth theory,the dynamic relation between age structure of population and resident consumption was studied,and explicit relation between resident consumption and dependency coeffici...Within the framework of endogenous growth theory,the dynamic relation between age structure of population and resident consumption was studied,and explicit relation between resident consumption and dependency coefficient was obtained through Hamiltonian function method. Then,an empirical study was carried out based on panel data of 31 provinces of China in 2000-2013. The study gave following results: there is negative correlation between child dependency coefficient and resident consumption and there is positive correlation between elderly dependency coefficient and resident consumption; urbanization level weakens the negative effect of child dependency coefficient on resident consumption but it increases the positive effect of elderly dependency coefficient on resident consumption; social expenditure weakens the negative effect of child dependency coefficient on resident consumption,but it intensifies positive effect of elderly dependency coefficient on resident consumption. These results indicate that current population structure of China is favorable for growth of resident consumption demand,but in such aging population structure,economic development may lose demographic dividends.展开更多
By creating a two-sector intertemporal and intergenerational small open economy model,this paper investigates how real exchange rate responds to demographic shifts in the long term.The result shows that when the capit...By creating a two-sector intertemporal and intergenerational small open economy model,this paper investigates how real exchange rate responds to demographic shifts in the long term.The result shows that when the capital density of tradable goods sector exceeds that of non-tradable goods sector in a country,an increase in the country's elderly dependency rate(ODR) will cause its real exchange rate to appreciate.In addition,higher savings rate or per capita labor income means that real exchange rate is more responsive to ODR variations.We conducted an econometric test on our theoretical hypotheses using the data of 214 countries and regions during 1980-2013.Empirical result indicates that an increase of ODR will cause real exchange rate to appreciate.This result is robust and unaffected by sample grouping characteristics and differences.An increase in savings rate will significantly increase the ODR elasticity of real exchange rate.This conclusion is also significant and robust for overall samples and categorized samples(except for developed countries) and generally consistent with our theoretical hypothesis.However,our empirical research generally does not support the hypothesis that higher labor income increases the responsiveness of real exchange rate to ODR.This study is of great significance to unravel the effect of China's ageing population on the longterm variations of renminbi's exchange rate.展开更多
基金Supported by Project of National Natural Science Foundation(71573240)
文摘Within the framework of endogenous growth theory,the dynamic relation between age structure of population and resident consumption was studied,and explicit relation between resident consumption and dependency coefficient was obtained through Hamiltonian function method. Then,an empirical study was carried out based on panel data of 31 provinces of China in 2000-2013. The study gave following results: there is negative correlation between child dependency coefficient and resident consumption and there is positive correlation between elderly dependency coefficient and resident consumption; urbanization level weakens the negative effect of child dependency coefficient on resident consumption but it increases the positive effect of elderly dependency coefficient on resident consumption; social expenditure weakens the negative effect of child dependency coefficient on resident consumption,but it intensifies positive effect of elderly dependency coefficient on resident consumption. These results indicate that current population structure of China is favorable for growth of resident consumption demand,but in such aging population structure,economic development may lose demographic dividends.
基金the sponsorship of Major Project under the Special Foundation of the Ministry of Education for Basic University Research Funds Study on China's International Competitiveness under New-Type International Production System
文摘By creating a two-sector intertemporal and intergenerational small open economy model,this paper investigates how real exchange rate responds to demographic shifts in the long term.The result shows that when the capital density of tradable goods sector exceeds that of non-tradable goods sector in a country,an increase in the country's elderly dependency rate(ODR) will cause its real exchange rate to appreciate.In addition,higher savings rate or per capita labor income means that real exchange rate is more responsive to ODR variations.We conducted an econometric test on our theoretical hypotheses using the data of 214 countries and regions during 1980-2013.Empirical result indicates that an increase of ODR will cause real exchange rate to appreciate.This result is robust and unaffected by sample grouping characteristics and differences.An increase in savings rate will significantly increase the ODR elasticity of real exchange rate.This conclusion is also significant and robust for overall samples and categorized samples(except for developed countries) and generally consistent with our theoretical hypothesis.However,our empirical research generally does not support the hypothesis that higher labor income increases the responsiveness of real exchange rate to ODR.This study is of great significance to unravel the effect of China's ageing population on the longterm variations of renminbi's exchange rate.
