The tectonic conditions for strong earthquakes are complicated in various aspects.The genetic conditions for strong earthquakes were studied from the angle of various disciplines.About 20 conditions belonging to diffe...The tectonic conditions for strong earthquakes are complicated in various aspects.The genetic conditions for strong earthquakes were studied from the angle of various disciplines.About 20 conditions belonging to different fields have been described by predecessors.In this paper,the authors try to study and evaluate all the tectonic condition factors for strong earthquakes by the methods of fuzzy mathematics and hierarchical analysis.Taking the northern part of North China as an example,the authors make a comprehensive digital analysis of all the quantitative and semi-quantitative tectonic factors.The credibility values of all strong earthquakes with different magnitudes are given after statistical analysis and calculation.Forty-one fault zones in the study region are quantitatively analyzed,and the potential seismogenic fault zones,maximum magnitude,and risk of earthquake occurrence in the near future are assessed.The result of synthetic evaluation,based on all tectonic conditions of different展开更多
Through the statistical analysis of earthquake distribution along 51 strike-sli p active fault segments on the Chinese continent, we found that strong earthquak e distribution along the seismogenic fault segments is i...Through the statistical analysis of earthquake distribution along 51 strike-sli p active fault segments on the Chinese continent, we found that strong earthquak e distribution along the seismogenic fault segments is inhomogeneous and the dis tribution probability density p(K) can be stated as p(K)=1.1206e -3.947K in which K=S/(L/2), S refers to the distance from earthquake epicenter to the center of a fault segment, L is the length of the fault segment. The above model can be utilized to modify the probability density of earthquake occurrence of t he maximum magnitude interval in a potential earthquake source. Nevertheless, it is only suitable for those potential earthquake sources delineated along a sing le seismogenic fault. This inhomogeneous model has certain effects on seismic risk assessment, especia ll y for those potential earthquake sources with higher earthquake reoccurrence rat es of the maximum magnitude interval. In general, higher reoccurrence rate of th e maximum magnitude interval and lower exceeding probability level may bring lar ger difference of the results in seismic risk analysis by adopting the inhomogen eous model, the PGA values increase inner the potential earthquake source, but r educe near the vicinity and out of the potential earthquake source. Taking the T angyin potential earthquake source as an example, with exceeding probability of 10% and 2% in 50 years, the difference of the PGA values between inhomogeneous m odel and homogenous models can reach 12%.展开更多
On the basis of study results of deep sounding in the Yanqing Huailai basin, the shallow active tectonics, palaeoseismic events, seismic activity, distribution of crustal stress field and other related data are combi...On the basis of study results of deep sounding in the Yanqing Huailai basin, the shallow active tectonics, palaeoseismic events, seismic activity, distribution of crustal stress field and other related data are combined to study the earthquake risk of the basin comprehensively. Meanwhile, the comparison of deep structures between the basin and some other earthquake regions such as the Xingtai area is made. It is thought that there is the background of deep structures for occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes in the Yanqing Huailai basin and its periphery, and the possibility for an M =7 earthquake to occur there cannot be excluded.展开更多
Roughly along the Animaqing Maji peak, the Kunlun fault section between the Tuosuo Lake and Kendingna (east Maqin) can be subdivided into two geometric segments: the Huashixia and the Maqin segments. These two segment...Roughly along the Animaqing Maji peak, the Kunlun fault section between the Tuosuo Lake and Kendingna (east Maqin) can be subdivided into two geometric segments: the Huashixia and the Maqin segments. These two segments behave differently in their Holocene slip rates and paleo-earthquake activities, with obviously higher paleo-seismic activity on the Huashixia segment than on Maqin segment. As many as four strong Holocene earthquakes are identified on the Huashixia segment from trenching and geomorphic studies. The recurrent interval for the latest three earthquakes are at about 500 a and 640 a, respectively. On the Maqin segment, at least three paleo-earthquake events can be defined from trenching, with a recurrent interval for the latest two events at about 1000 a. M = 7.5 earthquakes on Huashixia segment recur at every 411 a to 608 a with a characteristic slip at 5.75±0.57 m. Although the Maqin segment is less active, its accumulated strain energy during the long time period since last earthquake occurred (about 1070 a BP) deserves enough notice on its future earthquake probabilities.展开更多
Based on research result concerning the preparation and activity of strong earthquakes in groups and using the finite element method, a finite element dynamic model for Southwest China is established in this paper. Us...Based on research result concerning the preparation and activity of strong earthquakes in groups and using the finite element method, a finite element dynamic model for Southwest China is established in this paper. Using this model, the stress adjustment in the whole of the Southwest China region in response to the stress change due to strong earthquake occurrence is studied. The preliminary result shows that many strong earthquakes occurred in areas where the stress heightened after the last strong earthquake. So, the finite element model set up in this paper is useful for judging the regions where strong earthquakes are likely to occur in future.展开更多
The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forec...The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass Ms8. 1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a Ms8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kuulun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of Ms7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of Ms5.0 and Ms6.0 earthquakes during 2002- 2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning＇er Ms6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years.展开更多
Using the latest results of seismic tomography, we studied the deep tectonic settings of the moderate and strong earthquakes in Anhul Province and its neighboring areas （28° - 39°N, 112°- 124°E）....Using the latest results of seismic tomography, we studied the deep tectonic settings of the moderate and strong earthquakes in Anhul Province and its neighboring areas （28° - 39°N, 112°- 124°E）. The results are as follows： （1） There exists a certain correlation between the location of moderate-strong earthquake, the geologic structure of the surface and the partitioning of active tectonic elements with the upper-crust velocity structure. Most earthquakes recording M ≥ 6.0 occur in high-velocity zones or in the transitional areas between high-velocity and low-velocity zones in the upper crust. Seismicity in the low-velocity zone has a lesser impact. Earthquakes occuring in the high-velocity zone are distributed mainly in the velocity variation area. The boundary belts and the interior of the North China plain fault block are the main active sites of moderate-strong earthquakes. Beneath the fault basins in the western and northern sides of the block, the upper crust is characterized by a wide discontinuous distribution in the low-velocity zone, and in the transition zone from the low- to high velocities, the moderate strong seismicity shows a zonal distribution where active faults are developed. The NW-extension Zhoukou-Hefei-Xuancheng low-velocity zone separates the highvelocity zones of Dabieshan Mountains and west Shandong-Anhul, and moderate-strong earthquakes on its northern side bordering the high-velocity zones are relatively frequent. This low-velocity zone is probably an important and deeply structured boundary between the North China and the South China tectonic provinces. （2） The frequent moderate-strong earthquake recorded in the past and the recent small earthquake activities in the Huoshan-Lu＇ an area are the result of a low-velocity zone in the middle crust beneath the central part of Dabieshan and the two sets of deep faults that cut through the crust. （3） In terms of deep structures, the distribution of moderate-strong earthquake in Anhui Province has an obvious regional feature. Based on historical earthquake recurrence intervals and analogue principles of deep seismogenic tectonics, the potential earthquake risk zones recording Ms5.0 in Anhui Province are determined.展开更多
Based on seismic data from the regional network for the last 34 years, we analyzed the present fault behavior of major fault zones around the Mabian area, southern Sichuan, and identified the risky fault-segments for ...Based on seismic data from the regional network for the last 34 years, we analyzed the present fault behavior of major fault zones around the Mabian area, southern Sichuan, and identified the risky fault-segments for potential future. The method of analysis is a combination of activity background of historical strong earthquakes mainly show ~ （ 1 ） The spatial distribution of b-values strong and large earthquakes in the spatial distribution of b-values with and current seismicity. Our results indicates significant heterogeneity in the studied area, which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress levels along various fault zones and segments. （2） Three anomalously low b-value areas with different dimensions were identified along the Mabian-Yanjin fault zone. These anomalies can be asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels. Two asperities are located in the north of Mabian county, in Lidian town in western Muchuan county, and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone. These two areas represent potential large earthquake seismogenic sites around the Mabian area in the near future. Besides them, the third relatively smaller asperity is identified at southern Suijiang, as another potential strong- earthquake source. （3） An asperity along the southwestern segment of the Longquanshan fault zone indicates the site of potential moderate-to-strong earthquakes. （4） The asperity along the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu fault has potential for a moderate-strong earthquake.展开更多
文摘The tectonic conditions for strong earthquakes are complicated in various aspects.The genetic conditions for strong earthquakes were studied from the angle of various disciplines.About 20 conditions belonging to different fields have been described by predecessors.In this paper,the authors try to study and evaluate all the tectonic condition factors for strong earthquakes by the methods of fuzzy mathematics and hierarchical analysis.Taking the northern part of North China as an example,the authors make a comprehensive digital analysis of all the quantitative and semi-quantitative tectonic factors.The credibility values of all strong earthquakes with different magnitudes are given after statistical analysis and calculation.Forty-one fault zones in the study region are quantitatively analyzed,and the potential seismogenic fault zones,maximum magnitude,and risk of earthquake occurrence in the near future are assessed.The result of synthetic evaluation,based on all tectonic conditions of different
文摘Through the statistical analysis of earthquake distribution along 51 strike-sli p active fault segments on the Chinese continent, we found that strong earthquak e distribution along the seismogenic fault segments is inhomogeneous and the dis tribution probability density p(K) can be stated as p(K)=1.1206e -3.947K in which K=S/(L/2), S refers to the distance from earthquake epicenter to the center of a fault segment, L is the length of the fault segment. The above model can be utilized to modify the probability density of earthquake occurrence of t he maximum magnitude interval in a potential earthquake source. Nevertheless, it is only suitable for those potential earthquake sources delineated along a sing le seismogenic fault. This inhomogeneous model has certain effects on seismic risk assessment, especia ll y for those potential earthquake sources with higher earthquake reoccurrence rat es of the maximum magnitude interval. In general, higher reoccurrence rate of th e maximum magnitude interval and lower exceeding probability level may bring lar ger difference of the results in seismic risk analysis by adopting the inhomogen eous model, the PGA values increase inner the potential earthquake source, but r educe near the vicinity and out of the potential earthquake source. Taking the T angyin potential earthquake source as an example, with exceeding probability of 10% and 2% in 50 years, the difference of the PGA values between inhomogeneous m odel and homogenous models can reach 12%.
文摘On the basis of study results of deep sounding in the Yanqing Huailai basin, the shallow active tectonics, palaeoseismic events, seismic activity, distribution of crustal stress field and other related data are combined to study the earthquake risk of the basin comprehensively. Meanwhile, the comparison of deep structures between the basin and some other earthquake regions such as the Xingtai area is made. It is thought that there is the background of deep structures for occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes in the Yanqing Huailai basin and its periphery, and the possibility for an M =7 earthquake to occur there cannot be excluded.
基金Sino-French Cooperative Research program ″The Shortening Mechanisms of Eastern Kunlun Lithosphere″.
文摘Roughly along the Animaqing Maji peak, the Kunlun fault section between the Tuosuo Lake and Kendingna (east Maqin) can be subdivided into two geometric segments: the Huashixia and the Maqin segments. These two segments behave differently in their Holocene slip rates and paleo-earthquake activities, with obviously higher paleo-seismic activity on the Huashixia segment than on Maqin segment. As many as four strong Holocene earthquakes are identified on the Huashixia segment from trenching and geomorphic studies. The recurrent interval for the latest three earthquakes are at about 500 a and 640 a, respectively. On the Maqin segment, at least three paleo-earthquake events can be defined from trenching, with a recurrent interval for the latest two events at about 1000 a. M = 7.5 earthquakes on Huashixia segment recur at every 411 a to 608 a with a characteristic slip at 5.75±0.57 m. Although the Maqin segment is less active, its accumulated strain energy during the long time period since last earthquake occurred (about 1070 a BP) deserves enough notice on its future earthquake probabilities.
基金ThisprojectwassponsoredbytheNationalKeyBasicResearchProgram (G19980 4 0 7) China .
文摘Based on research result concerning the preparation and activity of strong earthquakes in groups and using the finite element method, a finite element dynamic model for Southwest China is established in this paper. Using this model, the stress adjustment in the whole of the Southwest China region in response to the stress change due to strong earthquake occurrence is studied. The preliminary result shows that many strong earthquakes occurred in areas where the stress heightened after the last strong earthquake. So, the finite element model set up in this paper is useful for judging the regions where strong earthquakes are likely to occur in future.
基金sponsored by the Key Project of Chinese National Programs for Fundamental Research and Development (973 program) (2004CB418406)the State Science and Technology Program of Tackle Key Problem(2006BAC01B02-01-04),China
文摘The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass Ms8. 1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a Ms8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kuulun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of Ms7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of Ms5.0 and Ms6.0 earthquakes during 2002- 2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning＇er Ms6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years.
基金The research was under the key science and technologyresearchfunds of the Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province ,China .
文摘Using the latest results of seismic tomography, we studied the deep tectonic settings of the moderate and strong earthquakes in Anhul Province and its neighboring areas （28° - 39°N, 112°- 124°E）. The results are as follows： （1） There exists a certain correlation between the location of moderate-strong earthquake, the geologic structure of the surface and the partitioning of active tectonic elements with the upper-crust velocity structure. Most earthquakes recording M ≥ 6.0 occur in high-velocity zones or in the transitional areas between high-velocity and low-velocity zones in the upper crust. Seismicity in the low-velocity zone has a lesser impact. Earthquakes occuring in the high-velocity zone are distributed mainly in the velocity variation area. The boundary belts and the interior of the North China plain fault block are the main active sites of moderate-strong earthquakes. Beneath the fault basins in the western and northern sides of the block, the upper crust is characterized by a wide discontinuous distribution in the low-velocity zone, and in the transition zone from the low- to high velocities, the moderate strong seismicity shows a zonal distribution where active faults are developed. The NW-extension Zhoukou-Hefei-Xuancheng low-velocity zone separates the highvelocity zones of Dabieshan Mountains and west Shandong-Anhul, and moderate-strong earthquakes on its northern side bordering the high-velocity zones are relatively frequent. This low-velocity zone is probably an important and deeply structured boundary between the North China and the South China tectonic provinces. （2） The frequent moderate-strong earthquake recorded in the past and the recent small earthquake activities in the Huoshan-Lu＇ an area are the result of a low-velocity zone in the middle crust beneath the central part of Dabieshan and the two sets of deep faults that cut through the crust. （3） In terms of deep structures, the distribution of moderate-strong earthquake in Anhui Province has an obvious regional feature. Based on historical earthquake recurrence intervals and analogue principles of deep seismogenic tectonics, the potential earthquake risk zones recording Ms5.0 in Anhui Province are determined.
基金This research is supported by the National Key Basic Research 973 Project(Grant No.:2008CB425701)the Special Project M7.0~8.0 of China Earthquake Administration
文摘Based on seismic data from the regional network for the last 34 years, we analyzed the present fault behavior of major fault zones around the Mabian area, southern Sichuan, and identified the risky fault-segments for potential future. The method of analysis is a combination of activity background of historical strong earthquakes mainly show ~ （ 1 ） The spatial distribution of b-values strong and large earthquakes in the spatial distribution of b-values with and current seismicity. Our results indicates significant heterogeneity in the studied area, which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress levels along various fault zones and segments. （2） Three anomalously low b-value areas with different dimensions were identified along the Mabian-Yanjin fault zone. These anomalies can be asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels. Two asperities are located in the north of Mabian county, in Lidian town in western Muchuan county, and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone. These two areas represent potential large earthquake seismogenic sites around the Mabian area in the near future. Besides them, the third relatively smaller asperity is identified at southern Suijiang, as another potential strong- earthquake source. （3） An asperity along the southwestern segment of the Longquanshan fault zone indicates the site of potential moderate-to-strong earthquakes. （4） The asperity along the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu fault has potential for a moderate-strong earthquake.
