Diagnostic Analysis of Rainstorm and Backward Trajectory Simulation of Water Vapor in Jilin Province in July,2010

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the rainstorm process and backward trajectory simulation of water vapor condition in Jilin Province in July,2010.[Method] Based on the actual situation data of routine weather chart,NCEP (2.5°×2.5°) reanalysis data per 6 h and GBL data of NOAA,the rainstorm process was carried out the diagnostic analysis of physical quantity in Jilin Province in July,2010.Moreover,HYSPLIT backward trajectory mode was used to simulate the water vapor source.[Result] The coexistence of upper-level divergence and low-level convergence generated the ascending motion,which was the dynamic condition of rainstorm appearance.The unstable energy induced by the low-level shear promoted the generation of heavy rainstorm.The water vapor source of precipitation process was divided into the water vapor in the southern sea area,northern high-altitude water vapor transportation and local water vapor source.[Conclusion] The research provided some reference basis for the forecast and analysis of rainstorm.

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON"MOLAVE"(0906)

This work examines the mechanism of rainfall associated with typhoon Molave(0906)in Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonamous Region with rainfall observations,radar mosaics from China National Meteorological Center and the final analysis data of National Center of Environmental Prediction(FNL/NCEP,USA).The result shows that the mechanism is different for the rainfall in the these areas.The rainfall in eastern Guangdong is mainly associated with a convective line to the front-right of the typhoon.The convective line is about 200 km away from the typhoon center.The rainfall in western Guangdong and Guangxi appear ahead of or to the left of the typhoon and is very close to the typhoon center.Both rainfall moves forward with the typhoon anticlockwise.It was also found that the rainfall occurred in the boundary between unstable and low-level convergent areas and closer to the convergent area.The unstable area is located in the downstream of rainfall and ahead of the convective line.It is an important factor to the development and convection.Strong frontogenesis is observed in the backward or upstream convective area of rainfall and is thus an important lifting condition for the formation of rainfall.When the low-level convergent area moves to the unstable area ahead of it,the unstable energy is left behind and as a result the convection is strengthened.

Diagnostic Analysis on a Regional Rainstorm Weather in North-central Henan Province

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. [Method] Based on the conventional meteorological observation data and the rainfall data of Henan Meteorological Station, the diagnostic analysis of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics on a rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province on July 19, 2010 was carried out. The characteristics of physical quantity field and the evolution of weather situation in north-central Henan Province when the rainstorm happened were studied. [Result] Western Pacific subtropical high strengthened to extend westward. The dynamic uplifting of low vortex at the middle and low layers, the strong water vapor transportation of southwest low-level jet caused the regional rainstorm weather process in north-central Henan Province. The diagnostic results of physical quantity showed that the deep, thick wet layer and the sustained water vapor convergence provided the abundant water vapor for rainstorm generation. The positive vorticity advection center developed and spread from northwest to southeast, which was favorable for the development of vertical movement. The structure maintenance of positive vorticity at the middle and low layers, negative vorticity at the middle and high levels provided the power condition for the regional rainstorm generation. The pumping effect of convergence at the middle and low layers, divergence at the high layer was favorable for the strengthening of vertical ascending motion at the low layer. The uplifting effect of dew point front at the middle and low layers triggered the release of unstable energy. The confrontation of warm and cold air was one of the important reasons for the regional rainstorm. TBB characteristic analysis showed that TBB was from -60 to -50 ℃ in north-central Henan Province in the whole strong precipitation time, and the moving speed was equivalent to that of southwest vortex. The low-value belt of TBB corresponded with the rainstorm occurrence zone in Henan, and the minimum-value center of TBB was basically consistent with the strongest center of precipitation. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the short-term forecast of rainstorm.

Diagnostic Analysis of a Snowfall Weather in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei in 2010

[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze a local snowstorm weather process which happened in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei during I - 4 January, 2010. [ Method] Based on routine meteorological observation data and NCEP/NCAR 2.5° ×2.5° grid data （four times every day）, a lo- cal snowstorm weather process which happened in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei during 1 -4 January, 2010 was carried out diagnostic analysis by using composite analysis method. [Result] Circumfluence on the ground and strong cold advection in the rear of upper trough were the main weath- er system of the snowfall. The deep thick wet layer and strong water vapor convergence provided sufficient water vapor for snowfall. The divergence field of low-level convergence and high^level divergence, dynamic coupling effect of vorticity provided favorable dynamic condition upwardly for the occurrence of strong snowfall. The steep dense area of Oso, low temperature at the ground layer and inversion temperature at the high layer provided certain energy condition for the development of snowfall weather. [ Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for snowfall forecast in future.

Potential Vorticity Diagnostic Analysis on the Impact of the Easterlies Vortex on the Short-term Movement of the Subtropical Anticyclone over the Western Pacific in the Mei-yu Period

By employing NCEP−NCAR 1°×1°reanalysis datasets,the mechanism of the easterlies vortex(EV)affecting the short-term movement of the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific(WPSA)in the mei-yu period is examined using potential vorticity(PV)theory.The results show that when the EV and the westerlies vortex(WV)travel west/east to the same longitude of 120°E,the WPSA suddenly retreats.The EV and WV manifest as the downward transport of PV in the upper troposphere,and the variation of the corresponding high-value regions of PV significantly reflects the intensity changes of the EV and WV.The meridional propagation of PV causes the intensity change of the EV.The vertical movement on both sides of the EV is related to the position of the EV relative to the WPSA and the South Asian high(SAH).When the high PV in the easterlies and westerlies arrive at the same longitude in the meridional direction,the special circulation pattern will lower the position of PV isolines at the ridge line of the WPSA.Thus,the cyclonic circulation at the lower level will be strengthened,causing the abnormally eastward retreat of the WPSA.Analysis of the PV equation at the isentropic surface indicates that when the positive PV variation west of the EV intensifies,it connects with the positive PV variation east of the WV,forming a positive PV band and making the WPSA retreat abnormally.The horizontal advection of the PV has the greatest effect.The contribution of the vertical advection of PV and the vertical differential of heating is also positive,but the values are relatively small.The contribution of the residual was negative and it becomes smaller before and after the WPSA retreats.

Diagnostic Analysis of a Rainstorm Process in Chongqing

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze a rainstorm process in Chongqing. [Methed] Based on precipitation product datasets and NCEP reanalysis data, synoptic situation and diagnostic analysis of a heavy rain process during 11 -12 May, 2012 in Chongqing were made, and the diagnostic analysis included dynamic and vapor conditions, instability index, vapor helicity and vapor divergence flux. [ Result] The east-south moving short wave trough and east-north moving southwest vortex were the main synoptic systems causing the heavy rain; the positive vorticity advection before trough and after ridge helped the ascending motion from surface; the southwest stream at 700 hPa provided vapor and energy, promoting and maintaining the intense development of convection; the higher vapor helicity and lower vapor divergence flux were well corresponding with higher precipitation area, and had well temporal correlation, which was significant for forecast of precipitation area and its development; the ascended warm wet stream on the lower air came across the cold air on the upper air, triggering the heavy rain; the Kindex and A index were significant for the heavy rain forecasting. [ Conclusion] The research could provide some references for research and forecast of future rainstorm process in Sichuan and Chongqing.

A three-dimensional ocean general circulation model for mesoscale eddies——Ⅱ Diagnostic analysis

A three-dimensional density field associated with mesoscaie unstable waves generated by the 3-D, primitive-equation model (Wang and Ikeda, 1996) is provided to the quasi-geostrophic pressure tendency and ω-equations, and to the (ageostrophic) Q-vector equation. Diagnostic analyses, analogous to the approaches in meteorology: ω-equation and Q-vector method, are for the first time developed to examine the mesoscaie dynamical processes and mechanisms of the unstable waves propagating in the mid-latitude ocean. The weaknesses and strengths of these two diagnostic approaches are evaluated and compared to the model results. The Q-vector method is then recommended to diagnose the vertical motion associated with the mesoscaie dynamics from a hydrographic CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth) array, while the quasi-geostrophic equations produce some small-scale features (errors) in the diagnosed fields.

A Diagnostic Analysis of Winter Atmospheric Circulation during the 1982-1983 ENSO Event

In this paper, the winter atmospheric circulation, the convection along the equator and their variations of 1982 and 1983 are investigated. It is suggested that there was a well organized three dimensional structure of anomalies of the atmospheric circulations during 1982 winter which may be related to the variations of the convection in the equatorial region.

Diagnostic Analysis on Physical Quantities of Spring Hail Weather in Hunan

Based on hail weather cases in Chenzhou of Hunan in 2016,environmental conditions and physical quantity characteristics of hail generation were analyzed and studied from circulation field,low level jet,stability,dynamic and thermal fields,and some conclusions with the guiding significance of prediction were obtained,which had an active effect on guiding prewarning of hail weather in Hunan,forecast business in falling region,disaster prevention and mitigation.

Climate Prediction and Diagnostic Analysis of Typhoon Precipitation in Midsummer of Yongzhou

By consulting the typhoon yearbook and restoring the historical weather chart,technical separation of typhoon precipitation in Yongzhou from July to September of 1981-2015 was conducted.On this basis,climatic characteristics of typhoon precipitation in midsummer of Yongzhou were analyzed,and climate prediction and diagnostic analysis were carried out.The research results showed that typhoon precipitation was an important component of midsummer precipitation in Yongzhou,but its contribution to total precipitation was not as much as precipitation of the westerly belt system.When the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high was northward,typhoon precipitation was more than westerly precipitation in midsummer of Yongzhou;when the subtropical high was southward,there were more patterns of westerly precipitation year;when the subtropical high was normally northward,typhoon precipitation and westerly precipitation were less,with more dry years.In summer,abnormal cold sea surface temperature(SST)in tidal zone and warm pool zone of western Pacific and abnormal warm SST in NinoZ zone(strong El Nino event)were favorable for that the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high was southward,and there were more patterns of westerly precipitation year in midsummer of Yongzhou.On the contrary,when subtropical high was northward or normally northerly,there was less westerly precipitation.In non La Nina years when the subtropical high was northward,most of them were typhoon precipitation years.In La Nina years when the subtropical high was northward,most of them were dry years.

Analysis of a Type Ⅱ Snowstorm Process in the Early Spring of 2022 in Ulanqab

Based on the observation data of meteorological stations,Doppler radar observation data of Ulanqab City,and ERA-5 reanalysis data,a snowstorm process in Ulanqab City from March 17 to 18,2022 was analyzed.The results show that this was a type Ⅱ snowstorm process generated under the joint influence of upper trough and ground low inverted trough and frontal cyclone.The main period of snowfall can be divided into two time stages,and the total snowfall was more in the south and less in the north,which was consistent with that of average specific humidity field.Water vapor conditions provided by strong water vapor transport and convergence,strong upward movement shown by large vertical velocity field,and the suction action of high-and low-layer divergence and convergence were the reasons for the hourly heavy snowfall on the 18^(th).During the process,radar echoes were mainly sheet-shaped,and composite reflectivity was 15-25 dBZ in most areas.The zero speed line in the first period was positively"S"-shaped,and there was warm advection and southwest wind.On the morning of the 18^(th),after the cold front transited the city,Ulanqab City was gradually controlled by northwest wind,and the snow tended to end.

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS ON THE DYNAMICS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE(CAT)

Clear air turbulence(CAT),a meso-or microscale(subgrid scale)phenomenon occurring in synoptic scale flow field at high altitude,is very difficult to be observed by the conventional obser- vation network.Thus it is necessary to approach an index to predict CAT.But at first,the struc- ture characteristics of CAT should be preanalyzed.In this paper,based on the theoretical and diag- nostic analysis of a case,features for wind profile,energy budget and dynamic mechanism of this case were presented.Furthermore,an objective and quantitative index for CAT forecast was giv- en.The verification for its efficiency was done with both real-time observation data and products from a numerical model.The results are very encouraging.

Analysis of Characteristic and Causes of a Strong Cooling Process in China in the Early Winter of 2020/2021

The characteristics and causes of a drop in temperature during a cold wave process in the early winter of 2020/2021 were analyzed.The results show that the air temperature at 700-600 hPa over China was firstly and mostly influenced by the cold wave process,and then the cold air gradually extended to the lower layer,causing the most severe cooling in North China and its nearby areas.During the cold wave,the longitude of the upper-level jet over the Chinese mainland was larger;the Ural blocking high and the East Asian trough were stronger,so that the geopotential height gradient between the two was also significantly larger;the meridional air flow was abnormally strong,which was conducive to the southward transport of cold air from the middle and high latitudes.Results of the diagnostic analysis further show that the outbreak of the cold wave and the negative temperature tendency anomaly in the key area were mainly caused by the meridional temperature horizontal advection anomaly,while the temperature rise accompanied by abnormal air subsidence compensated for the abnormal decrease in temperature,which was conducive to the gradual rise of temperature in the key area.

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF TYPHOON MORAKOT(2009) DURING ITS LANDING PROCESS

NCEP GFS(Global Forecast System)analytical data(available 4 times per day),satellite cloud image data and real-time observations of path and intensity of Typhoon Morakot are employed to investigate the variation of synoptic dynamics in its intensity and structure before and after the landing.This study intends to offer some hints for the forecast of intensity and structure of typhoons.Results show that in the tangential direction,the averaged asymmetry amplitude of wind on the radius of a large-value center of the low-level wind can be used as an important parameter for diagnosing the intensity of typhoons.Besides,the maximum of the upper dry potential vorticity in Morakot’s center tends to extend downward along the intensive gradient of tangential wind situated on the inner side of a large-value center of the low-level tangential wind.Additionally,the radial advection of the tangential wind determines the variation of tangential wind in conjunction with the vertical transmission of the tangential wind,the inertial centrifugal force and the Coriolis force.These four items are dominant in the motion equation of tangential wind based on a cylindrical coordinate without the effects of friction and turbulence.Moreover,the low-level convergence center of the typhoon has a tendency of shifting and developing along the intensive gradient of the tangential wind in the tangential direction.

Analysis on Formation Reason of the " 7.28" Regional Rainstorm in Zhongwei

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze formation reason of the ' 7.28' regional rainstorm in Zhongwei City.[Method] NCEP /NCAR reanalysis data and Micaps routine data were used to analyze formation reason of the regional rainstorm in Zhongwei City on July 28,2011.[Result]Under the east-high-west-low circulation situation,factors which caused this rainstorm included westerly jet at 200 hPa,cold trough at 500 hPa,low vortex and shear line at 700 hPa,quick alternation of the warm and cold airs at 850 hPa,stable northward movement of the subtropical high.Falling zone of the rainstorm was located at the right of the upper jet,the left of the low-level jet and the south of 700 hPa shear line.Analyses on the each physical quantity field showed that water vapor condition,vertical motion,energy,vorticity,divergence and wind field distribution over the rainstorm area were all beneficial for rainstorm generation.When the rainstorm occurred,radar echo mainly presented as mixed-cloud precipitation type.The echo intensity was from 30 to 45 dBz,and top height of the echo was from 7 to 8 km.[Conclusion]The research provided some experiences and theoretical guidance for future rainstorm forecast in Zhongwei City.

Analysis of a Heavy Precipitation Process Based on Wet Potential Vortex

In order to explore the relationship between heavy precipitation and the distribution characteristics of wet potential vorticity field,based on the NCEP 1°×1°6-hour reanalysis data,the wet potential vortex field in a heavy precipitation weather process in the central-southern part of Inner Mongolia was analyzed through the analysis of weather situation and calculation of vertical component(MPV_(1))and horizontal component(MPV_(2))of wet potential vortex(MPV).The results show that this heavy precipitation was a heavy precipitation weather process under the combined action of the cold air behind the trough and the southwest warm and humid airflow.The diagnostic analysis of θ_(se) shows that the south side of the area where the cold and warm air met before the precipitation was a high-temperature and high-humidity area,where a large amount of unstable energy was gathered,and the heavy precipitation occurred in the area with the most dense θ_(se) lines.This heavy precipitation process was dominated by the release of convective unstable energy in the lower troposphere,the positive pressure term of wet potential vortex MPV 1 was smaller than 0 in the lower troposphere and larger than 0 in the middle and upper layers;the positive-value wet potential vortex was transported to the lower layer,which was conducive to the release of unstable energy,so that precipitation increased.The negative-value center of wet potential vortex in the middle and low layers corresponded well to the heavy precipitation area,and the precipitation intensity and duration were consistent with the increase and enhancement time of the negative-value area of MPV_(1).The positive-value area of MPV_(1) was 6-12 h earlier than the heavy precipitation area,which has good indication significance for the prediction of the heavy precipitation area.In the lower troposphere,the configuration of MPV_(1)<0 and MPV_(2)>0 can be used as the basis for judging the location of precipitation center.

大连地区2009年12月29～30日寒潮天气过程分析(英文)

By using the routine weather data and the numerical value forecast products,applying the weather analysis and diagnostic analysis methods,the cold wave weather which happened in the south area of Dalian was analyzed on December 29-30,2009.The results showed that based on the temperature rise in prior period,the strong cold air accumulated in Mongolia and passed Ulan Bator,Erenhot to invade Dalian area.In the cold wave process,the circulation situations in the middle and high latitudes were the 'one ridge and one trough' pattern in Asia.The dynamic mechanisms were the rotary low-pressure trough in high altitude and the strong frontal zone,and the flow field which induced the cold wave to break out was the 'low trough rotation pattern'.After the cold air broke out,Dalian area was controlled by the strong cold advection.The cold high-pressure on the ground entered into the key zone and reached the intensity of cold wave.However,the circulation of cold wave occurrence was southerly,and the shifts of cold air and influence system were quicker.Therefore,the cold wave appeared in Dalian's south areas which included Lvshun,Dalian and Jinzhou.On this basis,the key point of cold wave weather forecast in Dalian area was summarized.

大连市一次冰雹天气诊断分析(英文)

By using regular meteorological data and Doppler radar data,causes for a hail storm over northern area of Dalian on Oct.13,2009 were analyzed from several aspects,including synoptic background,T-LnP charts and the characteristics of radar reflectivity factor evolution.The results showed that the hail storm occurred in downstream of 500 hPa trough.The 500 hPa cold trough turned zonally and triggered the formation of shear line on lower level.Before the hail event,instability energy and moisture supply were observed.The shear line on lower level intensified the atmospheric instability,promoted the release of potential energy,caused the hail event.The cooperation of upper and lower level jet streams provided favorable dynamic condition for strong convection development.The Doppler radar analysis showed that strong convection was comprised of multiple convection cells,which demonstrated 'L' and 'V' shapes during mature stage,with peak intensity of 50-60 dBz.

A Generalized Frontogenesis Function and Its Application

With the definition of generalized potential temperature, a new generalized frontogenesis function, which is expressed as the Lagrangian change rate of the magnitude of the horizontal generalized potential temperature gradient, is derived. Such a frontogenesis function is more appropriate for a real moist atmosphere because it can reflect frontogenesis processes, in which the atmosphere in a frontal zone is typically characterized by neither completely dry nor uniform saturation. Furthermore, by derivation, the expression of generalized frontogenesis function includes both temperature and humidity gradients, which is different from and superior to the traditional frontogenesis function in moist processes, which also uses equivalent potential temperature. Diagnostic studies of real cases are performed and show that the generalized frontogenesis function in non- uniformly saturated moist atmosphere indeed provides a useful tool for frontogenesis, compared to using the traditional frontogenesis function. The new frontogenesis function can be used in situations involving either a strong temperature or moisture gradient and is closely correlated with precipitation.

THERMAL FORCING IMPACTS OF THE EASTERLY VORTEX ON THE EAST-WEST SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets(1 000 to 10 hPa,2.5°× 2.5°),the thermal forcing impacts are analyzed of an easterly vortex(shortened as EV) over the tropical upper troposphere on the quasi-horizontal movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone(shortened as WPS A) during 22-25 June 2003.The relevant mechanisms are discussed as well.It is shown that the distribution and intensity of the non-adiabatic effect near the EV result in the anomalous eastward retreat of the WPSA.The WPSA prefers extending to the colder region,i.e.,it moves toward the region in which the non-adiabatic heating is weakening or the cooling is strengthening.During the WPSA retreat,the apparent changes of non-adiabatic heating illustrate the characteristics of enhanced cooling in the east side of the EV.Meanwhile,the cooling in the west side exhibits a weakened eastward trend,most prominently at 300 hPa in the troposphere.The evidence on the factors causing the change in thermal condition is found:the most important contribution to the heating-rate trend is the vertical transport term,followed in turn by the local change in the heating rate term and the horizontal advection term.As a result,the atmospheric non-adiabatic heating generated by the vertical transport and local change discussed above is mainly connected to the retreat of the WPSA.