Quality-adjusted life years and surgical waiting list:Systematic review of the literature

BACKGROUND The quality-adjusted life year(QALY)is a metric that is increasingly used today in the field of health economics to evaluate the value of different medical treatments and procedures.Surgical waiting lists(SWLs)represent a pressing problem in public healthcare.The QALY measure has rarely been used in the context of surgery.It would be interesting to know how many QALYs are lost by patients on SWLs.AIM To investigate the relationship between QALYs and SWLs in a systematic review of the scientific literature.METHODS The study was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Statement.An unlimited search was carried out in PubMed,updated on January 19,2024.Data on the following variables were investigated and analyzed:Specialty,country of study,procedure under study,scale used to measure QALYs,the use of a theoretical or real-life model,objectives of the study and items measured,the economic value assigned to the QALY in the country in question,and the results and conclusions published.RESULTS Forty-eight articles were selected for the study.No data were found regarding QALYs lost on SWLs.The specialties in which QALYs were studied the most in relation to the waiting list were urology and general surgery,with 15 articles each.The country in which the most studies of QALYs were carried out was the United States(n=21),followed by the United Kingdom(n=9)and Canada(n=7).The most studied procedure was organ transplantation(n=39),including 15 kidney,14 liver,5 heart,4 lung,and 1 intestinal.Arthroplasty(n=4),cataract surgery(n=2),bariatric surgery(n=1),mosaicplasty(n=1),and septoplasty(n=1)completed the surgical interventions included.Thirty-nine of the models used were theoretical(the most frequently applied being the Markov model,n=34),and nine were real-life.The survey used to measure quality of life in 11 articles was the European Quality of Life-5 dimensions,but in 32 articles the survey was not specified.The willingness-to-pay per QALY gained ranged from$100000 in the United States to€20000 in Spain.CONCLUSION The relationship between QALYs and SWLs has only rarely been studied in the literature.The rate of QALYs lost on SWLs has not been determined.Future research is warranted to address this issue.

Disability-adjusted life years and the trends of the burden of colorectal cancer:a population-based study in Shanghai,China during 2002 to 2016

Background:Colorectal cancer(CRC)still ranks the top in morbidity and mortality of cancers worldwide,posing a huge threat and burden to the society.We aimed to determine the age-standardized incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of CRC and explore potential changes in the temporal trends of the CRC burden in Shanghai during 2002 to 2016.Methods:The cancer statistics and demographics were obtained from the Cancer Registry and the Statistics Bureau of Pudong New Area,respectively.Data from 2002 to 2016 were included and analyzed retrospectively.DALYs were calculated using DisMod and the age-standardized rates(ASRs)were obtained according to Segi world standard population.Joinpoint regression was used to measure the trends in CRC incidence and to estimate the annual percent change.Results:The increasing trend of CRC ASR incidence halted after 2014,coinciding with the introduction of the Shanghai CRC screening program.The ASRs of mortality and DALYs increased,at 0.42%(P<0.05)and 4.07%(P<0.001)per year,respectively,which were mainly driven by men and individuals aged above the CRC screening program target.Conclusions:The disease burden of CRC in Shanghai remains serious,especially among men,and individuals aged>74 years.The benefits of the screening program have been partially proven by the ASRs of CRC incidence,providing important insights into better and wider application of screening programs.

Burden of road traffic accidents in Nepal by calculating disability-adjusted life years

Objective:To calculate the burden of road traffic accidents in Kathmandu Valley and then extrapolate this to the national level.Methods:A prospective study was performed to compute the burden of road traffic accidents by quantification of disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)using the Global Burden of Disease Study method on the basis of 1-year data from nine hospitals in Nepal and the Department of Foren-sic Medicine and cross-checked with the Nepal Traffic Directorate.Multiple methods were applied to the extrapolated population metrics of the burden of road traffic accidents in Nepal.Results:The total number of years of life lived in disability,years of life lost,and DALYs in Nepal were 38,848±194,119,935±1464,and 158,783±1658(95% confidence interval)re-spectively.The number of years lost because of morbidity and death was similar in Kathmandu Valley.Most(75%)of the DALYs resulted from years of life lost in Nepal.Males accounted for 73% of DALYs.Almost half(44%)of the DALYs were contributed by the group aged 15-29 years.Conclusion:This study is the first to calculate the burden of road traffic accidents in Nepal using Nepal’s own data.Nepal needs to develop and enhance its own system to identify significant public health issues so as to set national priorities for prevention of road traffic accidents.

Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study highlights the trends in death and disability-adjusted life years of leukemia from 1990 to 2017

Background:The patterns of leukemia burden have dramatically changed in recent years.This study aimed to estimate the global trends of leukemiarelated death and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)from 1990 to 2017.Methods:The data was acquired from the latest version of the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study.Estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)were calculated to estimate the trend of age-standardized rate(ASR)of death and DALYs due to leukemia and its main subtypes from 1990 to 2017.Results:Globally,the numbers of death and DALYs due to leukemia were 347.58×10^(3)(95%uncertainty interval[UI]=317.26×10^(3)-364.88×10^(3))and 11975.35×10^(3)(95%UI=10749.15×10^(3)-12793.58×10^(3))in 2017,with a 31.22% and 0.03% increase in absolute numbers from 1990 to 2017,respectively.Both of their ASR showed decreasing trends from 1990 to 2017 with the EAPCs being−1.04(95%confidence interval[CI]=(−1.10-−0.99)and−1.52(95%CI=−1.59-−1.44),respectively.Globally,the most pronounced decreasing trend of death and DALYs occurred in chronic myeloid leukemia with EAPCs of−2.76(95%CI=−2.88-−2.64)and−2.84(95%CI=−2.97-−2.70),respectively,while the trend increased in acute myeloid leukemia.The death and DALYs of leukemia decreased in most areas and countries with high socio-demographic index(SDI)including Bahrain,Finland,and Australia.Conclusions:The disease burden of death and DALYs due to leukemia decreased globally,and for most regions and countries from 1990 to 2017.However,the leukemia burden is still a substantial challenge globally and required adequate and affordable medical resources to improve the survival and quality of life of leukemia patients.

Racial disparity in years of potential life lost to induced abortions

The magnitude of the overall prevalence and racial disparity in induced abortion suggests that it is a major influence on the demographic and socioeconomic composition of the population of the United States (US). However, the years of potential lives averted by induced abortion have not been systematically studied. We applied race-specific intra-uterine death estimates to the induced abortions occurring to non-Hispanic (NH) white and non-Hispanic (NH) black women in the US state of North Carolina in 2008. The resultant estimate of births averted by induced abortion was used to project years of potential life lost. All-cause detailed mortality data were used to compare induced abortion with other contributing causes of years of potential life lost before age 75 (YPLL 75). For NH whites, induced abortions in 2008 contributed 59% of total YPLL 75, and 1.5 times the total YPLL 75 from all other causes combined. For NH blacks, induced abortions in 2008 contributed 76% of total YPLL 75 and 3.2 times the total YPLL 75 from all other causes combined. Induced abortion is the overwhelmingly predominant contributing cause of preventable potential lives lost in the North Carolina population, and NH blacks are disproportionately affected.

Maternal Death and Potential Years of Life Lost(PYLL)in Santa Catarina,Brazil,in 2000 and 2014

Introduction: Indicators of maternal health are often used to evaluate the social development and overall health of a population, as well as the accessibility of health services. Among these indicators, the Potential Years of Life Lost, which is associated with maternal deaths, is useful for the definition of priorities, monitoring, evaluation, and intervention, identifying the highest risk groups. Objective: To analyze the Potential Years of Life Lost by maternal death in Santa Catarina in 2000 and 2014. Method: An Ecological study with exploratory spatial analysis was conducted with data obtained from the Information System on Mortality and Live Births. Results: In the Information System, 35 maternal deaths in the year 2000 were identified and 24 in 2014. The total estimated years of life lost were 845 years in 2000 and 780 years in 2014, dominated by direct obstetric causes. In 2000, women who died lost, on average, 39.8 years of life;and 41.5 years in 2014. Conclusion: The spatial pattern observed in 2000 highlights areas of high risk in different regions of Santa Catarina. The greatest loss of years occurred in younger women, confirming the need to prevent and control maternal mortality and review strategies for compliance with public policies in the State.

I Do Biotech Dental Implants: Prospective Multicentric Study after 5 Years of Functional Loading

Introduction: I Do Biotech’s implants were developed starting in 2014. Since then, they obtained GMP and KFDA licenses for distribution in 2015. The main objective of this paper is to determine the survival rate of I Do Biotech implants five years after the first surgery. Material and Methods: 1000 implants were used on 480 prostheses across 10 clinics on 320 healthy, non-smoker and non-diabetic patients, chosen at random, of which 160 are male and 160 female, all in the age range of 30 to 50 years old. The failure rate was studied related to the patient’s gender, the length and diameter of the implant, anatomical location, the percentage of peri-implantitis, prosthodontic failures and the patient’s quality of life. Discussion: The results obtained are similar to those of Van Steenberghe D. Dieter-Busenlechner, E. Serrano Catauria and far superior to those of Sáenz Guzmán. Failure rates vary greatly from study to study due to the heterogeneity of the samples in the other research papers. Conclusion: The overall implant failure rate at 5 years is 1.7%. The factors affecting significantly the survival rate are: the implant diameter, its length and the anatomic area. Failure ratios increase significantly when the diameter or the length of the implant decreases, and when they are placed in the posterior maxilla (up to 4.3%). The rate of peri-implantitis is 5.1%. The prosthodontic failure rate is 2.91%. The improvement in quality of life and satisfaction increases with the years.

BRAIN TUMORS OF THE FIRST YEAR OF LIFE:CLINICAL AND SURGICAL MANAGEMENT

Brain tumors incidence in pediatric age hasbeen estimated between 1.3 to 5% with a relativeincidence of 1.4 to 11% during the first year oflife; the improvement in instrumental deviceshas lead to a relative increase in precocious diag-nosis. The choice to study brain tumors of the firstyear of life as a separate topic from pediatric ageones depends on the observation that these le-sions have peculiar clinical, topographic and tis-sular characteristics. The survival rate of thesepatients is very poor if compared with that found

Colorectal cancer’s burden attributable to a diet high in processed meat in the Belt and Road Initiative countries

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)plays a significant role in morbidity,mortality,and economic cost in the Belt and Road Initiative(“B and R”)countries.In addition,these countries have a substantial consumption of processed meat.However,the burden and trend of CRC in relation to the consumption of a diet high in processed meat(DHPM-CRC)in these“B and R”countries remain unknown.AIM To analyze the burden and trend of DHPM-CRC in the“B and R”countries from 1990 to 2019.METHODS We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study to collate information regarding the burden of DHPM-CRC.Numbers and age-standardized rates(ASRs)of deaths along with the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were determined among the“B and R”countries in 1990 and 2019.Using joinpoint regression analysis,the average annual percent change(AAPC)was used to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDALR)from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade(2010–2019).RESULTS We found geographical differences in the burden of DHPM-CRC among“B and R”countries,with the three highest-ranking countries being the Russian Federation,China,and Ukraine in 1990,and China,the Russian Federation,and Poland in 2019.The burden of DHPM-CRC generally increased in most member countries from 1990 to 2019(all P<0.05).The absolute number of deaths and DALYs in DHPM-CRC were 3151.15[95%uncertainty interval(UI)665.74-5696.64]and 83249.31(95%UI 15628.64-151956.31)in China in 2019.However,the number of deaths(2627.57-2528.51)and DALYs(65867.39-55378.65)for DHPM-CRC in the Russian Federation has declined.The fastest increase in ASDALR for DHPM-CRC was observed in Vietnam,Southeast Asia,with an AAPC value of 3.90%[95%confidence interval(CI):3.63%-4.16%],whereas the fastest decline was observed in Kyrgyzstan,Central Asia,with an AAPC value of-2.05%(95%CI:-2.37%to-1.73%).A substantial upward trend in ASR of mortality,years lived with disability,years of life lost,and DALYs from DHPM-CRC changes in 1990-2019 and the final decade(2010-2019)for most Maritime Silk Route members in East Asia,South Asia,Southeast Asia,North Africa,and the Middle East,as well as Central Europe,while those of the most Land Silk Route members in Central Asia and Eastern Europe have decreased markedly(all P<0.05).The ASDALR for DHPM-CRC increased more in males than in females(all P<0.05).For those aged 50-74 years,the ASDALR for DHPM-CRC in 40 members exhibited an increasing trend,except for 20 members,including 7 members in Central Asia,Maldives,and 12 high or high-middle social development index(SDI)members in other regions(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION The burden of DHPM-CRC varies substantially across“B and R”countries and threatens public health.Relevant evidence-based policies and interventions tailored to the different trends of countries in SDIs or Silk Routes should be adopted to reduce the future burden of CRC in“B and R”countries via extensive collaboration.

1990—2019年江苏省人群伤害疾病负担及其变化特征

目的了解1990—2019年江苏省人群伤害的疾病负担及其变化趋势。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究资料,对1990—2019年江苏省人群伤害疾病负担进行分析,使用GBD 2019世界标准人口年龄构成对伤害发病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)率进行标化,应用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件计算年度平均变化百分比(AAPC),应用人群归因危险百分比(PAF)估计归因于职业性风险、饮酒和低骨密度所致伤害的疾病负担变化情况。结果2019年,江苏省全人群伤害标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率分别为7688.1/10万(95%UI:7141.0/10万~8287.0/10万)、40.0/10万(95%UI:28.8/10万~49.8/10万)和2135.3/10万(95%UI:1788.2/10万~2502.5/10万),男性伤害标化发病率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率均高于女性。1990—2019年,伤害标化发病率呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.41%,t=7.82,P<0.05),标化死亡率和标化DALYs率均呈下降趋势(AAPC为-1.89%和-2.19%,t值为-20.23和-23.16,P值均<0.05),伤害归因于职业性危害的PAF呈下降趋势(AAPC=-1.28%,t=-8.91,P<0.05),归因于饮酒和低骨密度的PAF呈上升趋势(AAPC为1.88%和2.46%,t值为16.73和30.69,P值均<0.05)。结论江苏省人群伤害疾病负担呈下降趋势,男性伤害疾病负担高于女性,应针对重点人群开展减少酒精使用、预防职业性危害和低骨密度预防等工作。

1990-2019年中国成年人归因于糖尿病的心血管疾病负担研究

背景在全球老龄化不断深化的背景下,慢性病患者不断增加,多病共存现象愈加严重。在普遍认知中,心血管疾病与2型糖尿病大多属于老年病,但随着居民生活节奏与饮食等行为方式的改变,很多疾病呈现年轻化趋势。现也有研究表明,与一般人群相比,年轻时患糖尿病的患者的心血管疾病风险及死亡率会相对增加。目的探究1990—2019年中国成年人归因于糖尿病的心血管疾病负担情况,为共病预防提供依据。方法基于2019年全球疾病负担研究(GBD)数据,主要采用死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率和计算获取的年估计变化百分比(EAPC)等指标评估我国心血管疾病(包括缺血性心脏病、脑卒中和外周动脉疾病3类)归因于糖尿病的疾病负担情况,并对年龄段(25~49岁、50~69岁、≥70岁)及性别进行分层分析,最后对疾病负担的时间趋势进行分析。结果中国25岁及以上人群归因于糖尿病的心血管疾病死亡数从1990年的29.805万例上升到2019年的70.034万例。男性归因于糖尿病的心血管疾病标化死亡率较1990年升高,而女性标化死亡率有所降低,且男性标化死亡率始终高于女性。2019年归因于糖尿病的心血管疾病DALY为1358.585万人年,按年龄划分的死亡率和DALY率随年龄增长而增加。女性标化DALY率下降趋势较男性明显(女性:EAPC=-0.32%,95%CI=-0.49%~-0.11%;男性:EAPC=-0.01%,95%CI=-0.26%~0.29%)。2019年归因于糖尿病的缺血性心脏病、外周动脉疾病患者3个年龄段的死亡率和DALY率较1990年大部分上升,而2019年归因于糖尿病的脑卒中患者3个年龄段的死亡率较1990年下降。1990—2019年心血管疾病中3类心血管疾病归因于糖尿病的标化DALY率占比呈波动性变化,但在2019年归因于糖尿病的3类心血管疾病标化DALY率占比均高于1990年。结论1990—2019年我国成年人归因于糖尿病的心血管疾病的死亡率和DALY率总体呈现上升趋势,人群糖尿病及心血管疾病共病风险较大,应注重在糖尿病患者中筛查心血管疾病或患心血管疾病风险高的个体,重点关注男性、高龄人群以及不良生活习惯较多的年轻人,对其进行早期的健康干预,减少共病疾病负担。

2015—2021年句容市居民死因分析

目的了解句容市居民主要死因及寿命损失情况,为制定慢性病防控政策提供科学依据。方法利用2015—2021年句容市居民人口数据和死因监测数据,分析粗死亡率、标化死亡率、死因顺位、构成比、期望寿命、去死因期望寿命、寿命损失值、年度变化百分比(APC)、潜在减寿年数(PYLL)、减寿率(PYLLR)和早死概率等指标以及变化趋势;预测句容市“健康中国2030”早死概率预测值与目标值实现情况。结果2015—2021年句容市平均粗死亡率为748.43/10万,平均标化死亡率为294.71/10万,标化死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(APC=-2.26%,t=85.33,P<0.05)。男性粗死亡率高于女性,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=53.40,P<0.05)。死因顺位前5位依次是恶性肿瘤、脑血管疾病、心脏病、伤害和呼吸系统疾病,占全死因87.15%。期望寿命由81.83岁增至82.76岁,男性由79.66岁增至80.68岁,女性由84.08岁增至84.92岁,总人群、男性、女性均呈上升趋势(APC分别为0.20%、0.21%、0.21%,t值为15.00~142.68,P值均<0.05)。7年间,去脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病、伤害的期望寿命分别由83.48、82.50、82.61岁增至84.20、83.16、83.96岁,均呈上升趋势(APC为0.18%~0.39%,t值为3.00~40.33,P值均<0.05);恶性肿瘤、脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病引起的寿命损失值呈下降趋势(APC分别为-2.82%、-2.99%、-7.69%),伤害引起的寿命损失值呈上升趋势(APC=7.33%),差异均有统计学意义(t值分别为8.33~48.09,P值均<0.05);四类重大慢性病总粗死亡率无明显变化趋势(APC=-0.18%,P>0.05);其中,慢阻肺粗死亡率呈逐年下降趋势(APC=-5.22%,t=16.52,P<0.05)。四类重大慢性病总标化死亡率(APC=-3.30%)和总早死概率(APC=-2.05%)呈均下降趋势(t=169.92、9.58,P值均<0.05)。预测2030年四类重大慢性病总早死概率为9.84%。2015—2021年句容市全死因PYLL为96864人年,全死因PYLLR为23.53‰,全死因和恶性肿瘤PYLL、PYLLR均呈逐年下降趋势(P值均<0.05)。结论2015—2021年句容市居民标化死亡率呈下降趋势,恶性肿瘤仍是主要死因,慢性病对句容市居民的期望寿命、潜在寿命和早死概率影响较大,伤害引起的寿命损失值呈上升趋势,应调整本地疾病防控策略。

1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担分析及未来10年发病预测

目的了解1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病、患病、死亡情况及疾病负担情况,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病情况,为评估和制定慢性阻塞性肺疾病相关预防治疗政策和措施提供数据支持。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global burden of disease study,GBD),研究分析1990-2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的发病、患病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、早死寿命损失年(YLL)、伤残寿命损失年(YLD)等情况。采用贝叶斯-时期-队列分析(BAPC)方法,预测2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病率。结果相对于1990年,2019年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病粗患病率增长35.44%,标化患病率减少27.16%,粗发病率增长38.31%,标化发病率减少28.52%,粗死亡率减少30.59%,标化死亡率减少70.08%。1990-2019年中国人群因慢性阻塞性肺疾病导致的YLL率由3281.48/10万降至862.37/10万,YLD率由330.33/10万降至240.40/10万,DALY率由3611.81/10万降至1102.77/10万。2019年男性慢性阻塞性肺疾病DALY率相比于1990年降低66.56%,女性DALY率相比于1990年降低71.87%。2020-2030年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率预计呈下降趋势,2030年男性标化发病率预计比2020年降低31.97%,女性标化发病率预计比2020年降低27.69%。结论1990-2019年,慢性阻塞性肺疾病对中国人口造成的疾病负担总体呈下降趋势。但从患病情况和死亡情况来看,发病及死亡人数较多,中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。同时预测结果显示,未来10年中国慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化发病率在下降,但是仍处于较高水平,因此进行早筛查、早预防和早治疗,及广泛开展慢阻肺相关知识普及,对于做好COPD疾病管理具有重要意义。

1990-2019年中国心血管疾病流行现状、疾病负担及发病预测分析

背景心血管疾病是严重危害人类健康的重大慢病,且仍是我国乃至全球一个亟待解决的公共卫生问题。目的探讨1990—2019年中国心血管疾病流行特征和疾病负担情况,预测2020—2050年中国心血管疾病发病情况,为心血管疾病相关防治策略的制订提供参考。方法检索2019年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2019)数据库,提取1990—2019年中国及全球心血管疾病负担及危险因素的相关数据并进行分析,使用基于GBD 2019数据库可公开的发病率、患病率、死亡率以及对应的年龄标准化(简称标化)率来量化心血管疾病的疾病流行情况,使用伤残损失寿命年(YLD)、早死损失寿命年(YLL)、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)量化疾病负担情况,构建ARIMA模型预测2020—2050年中国心血管疾病的发病情况。结果1990—2019年中国心血管疾病的发病率、患病率及死亡率呈逐年上升趋势,其中发病率、患病率及死亡率分别增长了93.75%、99.75%、57.39%。女性的标化发病率、标化患病率均高于男性,标化死亡率低于男性(P<0.05)。从2019年数据上看,中国心血管疾病总体发病率随着年龄升高呈上升趋势,在95岁及以上年龄组达到最高值。男性和女性的发病率趋势与总体趋势相似,但略有差异。总体患病率随着年龄升高呈上升趋势,女性高于男性。在45岁以后心血管疾病的死亡率呈现上升趋势,男性的死亡率在各个年龄段均高于女性。1990—2019年男性YLL率、YLD率、DALY率增长了36.99%、102.42%、40.78%,女性增长了2.79%、107.13%、11.50%。从2019年数据来看,中国总人群心血管疾病的YLL率、YLD率、DALY率总体随着年龄的增加呈上升趋势,尚无拐点出现。男性YLL率、DALY率随人口老龄化进展逐渐升高并远高过女性,女性YLD率在55~59岁年龄组后逐渐升高并远高过男性。1990—2019年,全球心血管疾病的标化发病率、标化患病率及标化死亡率呈逐年下降趋势,而中国的标化发病率和标化患病率仍有所增加,标化死亡率虽有所降低,但仍高于全球范围。从全球整体水平上看,中国心血管疾病的标化YLL率、标化DALY率虽同全球一样呈下降趋势,但2000年以后中国心血管疾病的疾病负担高于全球整体水平,且标化YLD率逐年增加。与心血管疾病死亡相关的危险因素主要是吸烟、吸二手烟、饮酒、体力活动少、高空腹血糖、高收缩压、高BMI、高低密度脂蛋白胆固醇以及肾功能不全。从中国及全球相关数据来看,高收缩压(高血压)依然是造成心血管疾病死亡的首要危险因素,且死亡人数逐年增加。高低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(高脂血症)是全球及近年来中国心血管疾病死亡的第二因素。2020—2050年中国心血管疾病标化发病率仍呈上升趋势,预计到2050年心血管疾病的标化发病率将达到663.618/10万。结论1990—2019年我国心血管疾病的发病率、患病率及死亡率呈逐年上升趋势,因心血管疾病导致的疾病负担较重,在未来50年尚无拐点出现,疾病流行及负担情况均高于全球范围。预计到2050年心血管疾病的标化发病率将达到663.618/10万。

云南省农村居民2011年和2021年五种常见慢性病疾病负担的变化研究

背景慢性病已成为影响人群健康的主要公共卫生问题,我国的慢性病患者数量持续增加,死亡病例数也逐年递增,患者疾病负担正逐渐加重。掌握慢性病疾病负担的变化情况,对慢性病的防控工作意义重大,但目前鲜见针对云南省农村常见慢性病疾病负担变化的研究。目的分析云南省农村居民2011年和2021年5种常见慢性病[高血压、冠心病、脑卒中、哮喘和慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)]疾病负担的变化情况。方法采用重复横断面设计,分别于2011年和2021年采用多阶段分层随机抽样方法选取云南省8400名和7700名≥35岁的农村居民为研究对象,收集研究对象现场问卷调查和体格检查数据,以及5种常见慢性病的死因数据;采用主成分分析法,选取文化程度、家庭人均年收入和医疗服务可及性3个变量构建社会经济地位(SEP)指标,利用各变量系数计算SEP综合得分,并依据SEP综合得分的四分位数将社会经济地位分为低、中等偏下、中等偏上和高4个等级;采用伤残调整寿命年(DALY)测量5种慢性疾病的疾病负担大小。结果与2011年比较,2021年云南省农村居民的高血压(25.14%与41.57%)、脑卒中(1.03%与2.52%)和COPD(9.23%与12.60%)的总体患病率均升高(P均<0.05),且男性、女性和各个社会经济地位人群的患病率也升高(P<0.05);冠心病(2.02%与2.30%)和哮喘(1.36%与1.61%)的总体患病率无明显变化(P>0.05),但男性和高社会经济地位人群的冠心病患病率、男性和中等偏上社会经济地位人群的哮喘患病率却升高(P<0.05);男性2021年5种慢性病的患病率均高于女性(P<0.05);2021年不同社会经济地位人群的COPD患病率呈递减趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=6.801,P<0.001)。此外,冠心病(10.45与18.18)、脑卒中(12.80与23.20)、哮喘(4.54与9.10)和COPD(35.99与49.07)的每千人口DALY均升高,高血压(1.38和1.26)降低;其中以COPD的每千人口DALY和伤残所致生命损失年(YLD)较高,脑卒中的每千人口早死所致生命损失年(YLL)较高。结论云南省农村居民2021年5种常见慢性病的患病率和疾病负担与2011年比较,以升高为主,且2021年COPD的疾病负担最重,男性和低社会经济地位人群是未来慢性病防控的重点人群。应采取有针对性的预防和控制策略,降低慢性病对人群健康的危害。

1990-2019年中国归因于高体质指数的2型糖尿病疾病负担分析与预测研究

背景中国的糖尿病患者数位居全球首位。近年来糖尿病患病率和死亡率不断上升,威胁人们健康水平,给我国人民群众带来沉重负担。随着肥胖患病率不断上升,预计糖尿病疾病负担将持续上升,糖尿病已成为我国不容忽视的公共卫生问题。目的描述和分析1990—2019年中国归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病疾病负担状况及其变化趋势,预测2020—2024年中国归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病疾病负担状况,旨在为中国2型糖尿病科学防控提供依据。方法于2023年5月,从2019年全球疾病负担(GBD 2019)中提取1990—2019年中国2型糖尿病伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)、DALYs率、标化DALYs率、死亡人数、死亡率及标化死亡率等疾病负担指标的数据,采用联结点回归模型通过年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析其变化趋势。基于1990—2016年数据(训练集),构建归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病DALYs率和死亡率的自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,利用2017—2019年数据(测试集)进行模型评价。用预测值与实际值得到的相对误差、模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)、均方误差(MASE)及均方根误差(RMSE)判断模型预测效果,选择最佳模型预测2020—2024年中国归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病疾病负担。结果1990—2019年:疾病负担整体呈上升趋势(标化DALYs率AAPC=2.85%,标化死亡率AAPC=2.32%,均P<0.05),标化DALYs率从80.21/10万增至181.54/10万,标化死亡率从1.25/10万增至2.39/10万;男性和女性的标化DALYs率和标化死亡率均呈快速上升趋势,与1990年相比,2019年男性标化DALYs率增长了173%,女性增长了89%,男性标化死亡率增长了146%,女性增长了58%;DALYs率和死亡率随年龄增加明显增加,DALYs率在30岁后迅速增加,高峰基本维持在65~69岁(1990年337.47/10万,2019年711.09/10万)和70~74岁年龄组(1990年323.64/10万,2019年730.47/10万),人群死亡率在45岁后迅速增加,高峰维持在95岁以上(1990年12.78/10万,2019年33.29/10万);与全球相比,我国归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病的DALYs率和死亡率整体增速均较高。在1990—2019年中均有4个时间拐点,标化DALYs率和标化死亡率分别在2000—2004年和1996—2004年增速最快。经ARIMA模型预测得到2020—2024年中国归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病标化DALYs率和标化死亡率均呈持续上升趋势,到2024年分别达到205.142/10万(95%CI=189.775/10万~220.508/10万)和2.621/10万(95%CI=2.343/10万~2.900/10万)。结论我国归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病的疾病负担总体呈上升趋势,表现为由伤残导致的疾病负担与死亡人数升高,且增速高于全球。我国男性归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病的疾病负担逐渐高于女性,归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病的DALYs率和死亡率有年轻化趋势,ARIMA模型显示归因于高BMI的2型糖尿病的疾病负担预计将持续上升。为减轻2型糖尿病疾病负担,应该对重点人群(男性、中老年人群)加强健康教育,以提高对糖尿病防治的知晓度,可以通过提倡健康饮食和生活习惯加强体质量管理。

1990-2019年金砖国家慢性阻塞性肺疾病疾病负担研究

背景作为新兴经济体,金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)疾病负担的显著增加成为其共同面临的卫生挑战。目的本研究旨在了解金砖国家因COPD所致疾病负担现状、既往变化趋势和归因危险因素,为我国评价和制定COPD防控策略、加强金砖国家卫生合作提供依据。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2019),对1990—2019年金砖国家COPD的患病率、死亡率、伤残寿命调整年(DALY)率的变化趋势进行描述,使用Joinpoint软件计算其年度变化百分比(APC)与平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),运用人群归因危险百分比(PAF)估计不同危险因素导致COPD疾病负担的比例。结果2019年金砖国家疾病负担均随年龄增长呈上升趋势,在45岁以上增长迅速且存在一定性别差异;1990—2019年金砖国家COPD患病率均呈上升趋势,除印度外其他金砖国家的死亡率和DALY率均观察到下降趋势;金砖国家标化患病率、标化死亡率和标化DALY率的AAPC均呈下降趋势,中国下降幅度最大,AAPC分别为-1.14%、-4.22%和-4.17%(P<0.05);烟草使用是巴西、俄罗斯、中国和南非COPD疾病负担的首位危险因素,PAF均超过50%,而印度的首位危险因素为空气污染。结论金砖国家COPD疾病负担依然沉重,且不同国家内部存在差异;金砖国家COPD防治行动取得积极成果,但总体改善程度不及亚太高收入国家;中国COPD疾病负担总量下降趋势明显,但防控形势依旧严峻;金砖国家应更加关注中老年群体的COPD防治,同时持续关注因烟草使用和环境污染等引起的健康效应问题。

2014—2021年江西省死因监测地区肝癌死亡情况分析

目的分析江西省死因监测地区居民肝癌死亡水平及其疾病负担情况,为针对性开展肝癌防控措施提供建议。方法利用2014—2021年江西省20个国家级死因监测地区报告的居民肝癌死亡数据,计算肝癌死亡率、标化死亡率、年龄别死亡率、早死所致的寿命损失年(years of life lost,YLL)率、平均寿命损失年(average years of life lost,AYLL)等指标,2014—2021年趋势分析采用平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)表示。结果2014—2021年,江西省死因监测地区肝癌死亡率为21.41/10万,标化死亡率为20.01/10万,男性死亡率高于女性,农村死亡率高于城市(P<0.05)。肝癌年龄别死亡率随年龄增长而上升,死亡率从30岁开始快速上升。2014—2021年男性、女性、农村居民死亡率AAPC分别为2.60%、5.58%、3.55%(P<0.05);城市居民死亡率、各人群标化死亡率变化趋势均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。男性、女性、城市、农村居民AYLL的AAPC分别为-1.75%、-2.88%、-2.46%、-1.94%(P<0.05);女性YLL率呈上升趋势(AAPC=2.56%,P<0.05)。结论江西省肝癌死亡水平较高,但早死导致的疾病负担有下降趋势,男性与农村居民是肝癌防控的重点人群。

1981—2020年昆山市肺癌疾病负担和间接经济负担分析

目的分析昆山市1981—2020年肺癌所致的疾病负担和间接经济负担。方法1981—2020年肺癌发病和死亡病例来源于肿瘤登记和死因监测,以伤残调整生命年(DALY)为疾病负担评价指标,以人力资本法计算因肺癌所致的间接经济负担。结果1981—2020年昆山户籍居民因肺癌死亡9272例,男性和女性分别为7106例、2166例。全人群中肺癌所致的DALY在1981—1990年、1991—2000年、2001—2010年、2011—2020年四个时期分别为3.81人年/千人、4.14人年/千人、4.38人年/千人、9.46人年/千人;与之相对应肺癌所致的间接经济负担为1051.5万元、14165.7万元、81379.4万元和665914.9万元。2011—2020年,男性、女性及总人群中寿命损失年(YLL)占DALY的比例分别为92.42%、95.15%和93.60%。结论昆山市肺癌所致的DALY呈现持续上升趋势,与之对应的间接经济负担重。肺癌所致的疾病负担与间接经济负担在年龄间并不对称,提示在人群中有效预防肺癌,降低肺癌负担十分紧迫,特别是45~59岁人群。