By using occurrence years of great drought in Shaoyang district in recent 20 years,the time sequence was established,and by gray disaster prediction theory,the possible great drought years in future in Shaoyang distri...By using occurrence years of great drought in Shaoyang district in recent 20 years,the time sequence was established,and by gray disaster prediction theory,the possible great drought years in future in Shaoyang district were predicted. The results showed that one quasi-periodic of great drought occurrence in Shaoyang district is 2 years,the next great drought years are 2010,2012 and 2015. Gray prediction drought theory will provide scientific basis for drought resistance work in Shaoyang district.展开更多
During recent ten years, many serious disasters were prevented and reduced by Chinese people and Government. The mechanism of Chinese disaster prevention and reduction was summarized in this paper. 24 years ago, autho...During recent ten years, many serious disasters were prevented and reduced by Chinese people and Government. The mechanism of Chinese disaster prevention and reduction was summarized in this paper. 24 years ago, author presented modern theory of disaster prevention and reduction in China firstly. A lot of work was done by Chinese people and scientists. For example, presented strategic suggestion; promoted "China Center of Disaster Reduction"; finished "National Report" and "China Plan on Disaster Reduction" and "China Decade Report" etc. As other part of practice, a series of modern scientific and technologic systems or setup were established or developed. For example, "Synthetic Scientific System of Atmosphere Hydrosphere Disaster Reduction" (SSSAHDR) obtained greatly successes reducing losses about 200 million US$; and it promotes to establish "China Center of Disaster Reduction" and larger step of "China Modern Setup of Disaster Prevention and Reduction" was presented and so on. It is very clear that above theory and practice of disaster prevention and reduction are important and useful for Chinese works on disaster reduction; and it may be a reference for other countries, specially for developing countries. China is in the crossing region of two great hazard belts in the world, and it’s natural hazards frequently strike and cause heavy damage. So, China is one of the few countries where natural hazards strike frequently and make serious damage. During recent ten years (1989-1998), the middle value of all direct economic losses of natural disasters in China are 157.8 billion yuan RMB a year. It is about 2.6%～6.1% General National Production (GNP) of China, the middle loss value of GNP is 3.8% which is very high, it is about ten times than advancing countries. The maximum of economic losses is 300.7 billion yuan RMB in 1998, because great flood struck our country in this year. So, disaster prevention and reduction are very important task in China which is in relation closely with national economic development.展开更多
This research explored the basic issue of what preparedness means and entails to people in Fako Division,Cameroon—a place threated by many hazards and that has experienced many disasters.Findings from the analysis of...This research explored the basic issue of what preparedness means and entails to people in Fako Division,Cameroon—a place threated by many hazards and that has experienced many disasters.Findings from the analysis of the 33 interviews conducted in this study indicate that preparedness is a dynamic state of readiness that is dependent on context,a social process,and a process of completing activities to save lives and minimize the effects of disasters.In addition,the research determined that Cameroonians view a wholly prepared person as someone who would:(1)have knowledge about hazards and what to do about them;(2)engage others,including their families and neighbors,in discussions about activities related to hazards;and(3)participate in activities to minimize loss from hazards,sustain themselves in the face of hazards,and flee from hazards.The findings from the interview data synchronize to a large extent with what is implied,but not clearly stated,in the existing research literature.The article addresses this synchrony,posits a definition of preparedness,and identifies the theoretical components of preparedness.展开更多
The typhoon is one major threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, and its risk perception is crucial for contextualizing and managing disaster risks in different social settings. Social media data are a new d...The typhoon is one major threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, and its risk perception is crucial for contextualizing and managing disaster risks in different social settings. Social media data are a new data source for studying risk perception, because such data are timely, widely distributed, and sensitive to emergencies.However, few studies have focused on crowd sensitivity variation in social media data-based typhoon risk perception. Based on the regional disaster system theory, a framework of analysis for crowd risk perception was established to explore the feasibility of using social media data for typhoon risk perception analysis and crowd sensitivity variation. The goal was to quantitatively analyze the impact of hazard intensity and social and geographical environments on risk perception and its variation among population groups. Taking the Sina Weibo data during Typhoon Lekima of 2019 as an example, we found that:(1)Typhoon Lekima-related Weibo public attention changed in accordance with the evolution of the typhoon track and the number of Weibo posts shows a significantly positive correlation with disaster losses, while socioeconomic factors,including population, gross domestic product, and land area, are not explanatory factors of the spatial distribution of disaster-related Weibo posts;(2) Females, nonlocals with travel plans, and people living in areas with high hazard intensity, low elevation, or near waterbodies affected by Lekima paid more attention to the typhoon disaster;and(3)Descriptions of rainfall intensity by females are closer to the meteorological observation data.展开更多
文摘By using occurrence years of great drought in Shaoyang district in recent 20 years,the time sequence was established,and by gray disaster prediction theory,the possible great drought years in future in Shaoyang district were predicted. The results showed that one quasi-periodic of great drought occurrence in Shaoyang district is 2 years,the next great drought years are 2010,2012 and 2015. Gray prediction drought theory will provide scientific basis for drought resistance work in Shaoyang district.
文摘During recent ten years, many serious disasters were prevented and reduced by Chinese people and Government. The mechanism of Chinese disaster prevention and reduction was summarized in this paper. 24 years ago, author presented modern theory of disaster prevention and reduction in China firstly. A lot of work was done by Chinese people and scientists. For example, presented strategic suggestion; promoted "China Center of Disaster Reduction"; finished "National Report" and "China Plan on Disaster Reduction" and "China Decade Report" etc. As other part of practice, a series of modern scientific and technologic systems or setup were established or developed. For example, "Synthetic Scientific System of Atmosphere Hydrosphere Disaster Reduction" (SSSAHDR) obtained greatly successes reducing losses about 200 million US$; and it promotes to establish "China Center of Disaster Reduction" and larger step of "China Modern Setup of Disaster Prevention and Reduction" was presented and so on. It is very clear that above theory and practice of disaster prevention and reduction are important and useful for Chinese works on disaster reduction; and it may be a reference for other countries, specially for developing countries. China is in the crossing region of two great hazard belts in the world, and it’s natural hazards frequently strike and cause heavy damage. So, China is one of the few countries where natural hazards strike frequently and make serious damage. During recent ten years (1989-1998), the middle value of all direct economic losses of natural disasters in China are 157.8 billion yuan RMB a year. It is about 2.6%～6.1% General National Production (GNP) of China, the middle loss value of GNP is 3.8% which is very high, it is about ten times than advancing countries. The maximum of economic losses is 300.7 billion yuan RMB in 1998, because great flood struck our country in this year. So, disaster prevention and reduction are very important task in China which is in relation closely with national economic development.
文摘This research explored the basic issue of what preparedness means and entails to people in Fako Division,Cameroon—a place threated by many hazards and that has experienced many disasters.Findings from the analysis of the 33 interviews conducted in this study indicate that preparedness is a dynamic state of readiness that is dependent on context,a social process,and a process of completing activities to save lives and minimize the effects of disasters.In addition,the research determined that Cameroonians view a wholly prepared person as someone who would:(1)have knowledge about hazards and what to do about them;(2)engage others,including their families and neighbors,in discussions about activities related to hazards;and(3)participate in activities to minimize loss from hazards,sustain themselves in the face of hazards,and flee from hazards.The findings from the interview data synchronize to a large extent with what is implied,but not clearly stated,in the existing research literature.The article addresses this synchrony,posits a definition of preparedness,and identifies the theoretical components of preparedness.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFC1508903)the Science Technology Department of Zhejiang Province(No.2022C03107)the International Center for Collaborative Research on Disaster Risk Reduction。
文摘The typhoon is one major threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, and its risk perception is crucial for contextualizing and managing disaster risks in different social settings. Social media data are a new data source for studying risk perception, because such data are timely, widely distributed, and sensitive to emergencies.However, few studies have focused on crowd sensitivity variation in social media data-based typhoon risk perception. Based on the regional disaster system theory, a framework of analysis for crowd risk perception was established to explore the feasibility of using social media data for typhoon risk perception analysis and crowd sensitivity variation. The goal was to quantitatively analyze the impact of hazard intensity and social and geographical environments on risk perception and its variation among population groups. Taking the Sina Weibo data during Typhoon Lekima of 2019 as an example, we found that:(1)Typhoon Lekima-related Weibo public attention changed in accordance with the evolution of the typhoon track and the number of Weibo posts shows a significantly positive correlation with disaster losses, while socioeconomic factors,including population, gross domestic product, and land area, are not explanatory factors of the spatial distribution of disaster-related Weibo posts;(2) Females, nonlocals with travel plans, and people living in areas with high hazard intensity, low elevation, or near waterbodies affected by Lekima paid more attention to the typhoon disaster;and(3)Descriptions of rainfall intensity by females are closer to the meteorological observation data.
