Records and Disaster Evaluation of Typhoons in East Hainan Island in Recent 50 Years

Based on typhoon data in Hainan Island from 1957 to 2006,the basic changing characteristics of typhoons' landing on the east of Hainan Island were analyzed.Based on 48 typhoons cases and their disaster conditions,objective quantitative grades of typhoon disaster were separated with disaster indicator of typhoon(G) and disaster losses ratio(S).Besides,the disaster assessment was statistically analyzed.The results showed that in the past 50 years,the frequency of typhoons' landing on Hainan Island presented significant annual and monthly changes.The landing locations of typhoons were distributed unevenly.It showed fluctuant changes in disaster indexes of disastrous typhoons,and disaster indexes had increased in the recent 50 years.Typhoon disasters in Hainan Island were catastrophic and a vast majority of those typhoons were of disastrous scales.

A High Precision Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Flood Disaster Loss Based on Improved Genetic Programming

Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the complex relation between the input and output data of the system of flood disaster loss. Genetic programming (GP) solves problems by using ideas from genetic algorithm and generates computer programs automatically. In this study a new method named the evaluation of the grade of flood disaster loss (EGFD) on the basis of improved genetic programming (IGP) is presented (IGP-EGFD). The flood disaster area and the direct economic loss are taken as the evaluation indexes of flood disaster loss. Obviously that the larger the evaluation index value, the larger the corresponding value of the grade of flood disaster loss is. Consequently the IGP code is designed to make the value of the grade of flood disaster be an increasing function of the index value. The result of the application of the IGP-EGFD model to Henan Province shows that a good function expression can be obtained within a bigger searched function space; and the model is of high precision and considerable practical significance. Thus, IGP-EGFD can be widely used in automatic modeling and other evaluation systems.

Study on evaluation of cities' ability reducing earthquake disasters

Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.

Preface to the Special Issue on the"Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters"(FEMD)

Meteorological disasters usually exert huge impacts on the development of both human society and the economy. According to statistics from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, the annual mean economic loss caused by meteorological disasters accounts for 3%-6% of the total amount of global GDP. China is a country that has been one of the most severely influenced by natural disasters.

Disaster Loss Evaluation and Characteristics of the Seismic Hazard of the Nilka-Gongliu Earthquake with M_S6. 0

The epicenter intensity of Nilka-Gongliu earthquake with MS6. 0 was Ⅶ degrees; no fatalities but many residential buildings and public facilities were moderately damaged during the earthquake. Traffic and water conservation facilities were damaged to a certain extent but after emergency repair,production and life in the disaster area were not influenced. According to a sample survey of the earthquake filed,this earthquake caused direct economic loss of approximately 678. 46 million yuan( RMB),and the reconstruction funds required will be about 1. 20349 billion yuan( RMB).

Early Warning of Snow Disaster in Pasturing Areas of Inner Mongolia

Using ground and remote sensing monitoring, and national standards of snow disaster monitoring evaluation standards, quantitative evaluation of snow disaster was realized. Threshold of animal husbandry weather forecast indexes were applied to establish snow disaster early warning for different grasslands in pasturing areas of Inner Mongolia, and make the grade distribution map of snow disaster early warning. The forecast results basically met the real conditions, it proved that this forecast method was capable of evaluating scale and influence degree of snow disaster. However, the snow disaster grade forecast deviated from the real conditions for the influence of weather forecast accuracy rate.

Ideas of establishing the information system for emergence decisions on the protection against earthquakes and disaster reduction in cities (application of GIS)

ith urban reformation and opening becoming deeper,the work of protection against earthquake and disaster reduction would be more important.In this paper,some ideas are suggested about establishing the information system for emergency decisions on protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in cities .The information system mainly includes a subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake (which includes input of seismic information,distribution of earthquake intensity,evaluation of seismic fragility on all social factors and etc.) and a subsystem for the decisive information of seismic emergency(which mainly includes project of disaster relief,project of personnel evacuation,dangerous degree warning for the dangerous articlesstoring places and protection measures against them,assistant decision on fire due to earthquake,location of headquarter for providing disaster relief,and etc.). It is thought that the data investigation and collection about all kinds of buildings(including lifeline engineering)are the most important and difficult work as establishing this system.

How Can We Make Disaster Management Evaluations More Useful?An Empirical Study of Dutch Exercise Evaluations

The evaluation of simulated disasters(for example,exercises)and real responses are important activities.However,little attention has been paid to how reports documenting such events should be written.A key issue is how to make them as useful as possible to professionals working in disaster risk management.Here,we focus on three aspects of a written evaluation:how the object of the evaluation is described,how the analysis is described,and how the conclusions are described.This empirical experiment,based on real evaluation documents,asked 84 Dutch mayors and crisis management professionals to evaluate the perceived usefulness of the three aspects noted above.The results showed that how evalua・tions are written does matter.Specifically,the usefulness of an evaluation intended for learning purposes is improved when its analysis and conclusions are clearer.In contrast,evaluations used for accountability purposes are only improved by the clarity of the con elusion.These findings have implications for the way disaster management evaluations should be documented.

Near-Real-Time Analysis of Publicly Communicated Disaster Response Information

Analysis of a disaster event can identify strengths and weaknesses of the response implemented by the disaster management system;however, analysis does not typically occur until after the response phase is over.The result is that knowledge gained can only benefit future responses rather than the response under investigation. This article argues that there is an opportunity to conduct analysis while the response is operational due to the increasing availability of information within hours and days of a disaster event. Hence, this article introduces a methodology for analyzing publicly communicated disaster response information in near-real-time. A classification scheme for the disaster information needs of the public has been developed to facilitate analysis and has led to the establishment of best observed practice standards for content and timeliness. By comparing the information shared with the public within days of a disaster to these standards,information gaps are revealed that can be investigated further. The result is identification of potential deficiencies in communicating critical disaster response information to the public at a time when they can still be corrected.