Analysis and Prognostication of Residents'Per Capita Disposable Income in Hubei Province using Time Series Prediction Methods

To anticipate the fluctuations in per capita disposable income among Hubei Province inhabitants for the subsequent biennium,a dataset spanning from 2005 to 2022 was culled.Employed in this study were three distinct time series prognostication methodologies:Exponential Smoothing(Holt-Winter),Autoregressive Moving Average(ARMA),and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA).These techniques were applied to envision the forthcoming trajectory of per capita disposable income for the province's residents.By computing diverse metrics to assess predictive discrepancies—like the Mean Absolute Error(MAE)and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)—the effectiveness of the assorted models was gauged,culminating in the selection of the ARIMA model due to its superior performance.Capitalizing on this,approximations for per capita disposable income during 2023 and 2024 were extrapolated.The resultant prognoses project a sustained and noteworthy uptick in per capita disposable income for urban denizens of Hubei Province in the forthcoming biennial span.Ultimately,the findings were translated into actionable policy suggestions and deductions,rendering them highly pertinent for the dissection of Hubei Province's economic evolution.

China’s Cross-Border E-Commerce: Evolution Pattern and Influencing Factors

In recent years,while the traditional trade sectors have been shrinking,China’s cross-border e-commerce has undergone rapid development and has become a new driver of its international trade.Based on analysis of the evolution pattern of China’s cross-border e-commerce,this paper uses a revised gravity model to test empirically the driving factors and the resistance factors in the development of the country’s cross-border e-commerce.The results show that the total GDP,per capita disposable income of urban residents,total imports and exports,and the scale of the online shopping market have a positive relationship with cross-border e-commerce transactions,which are conducive to the development of cross-border e-commerce,while logistics costs inhibit the development of cross-border e-commerce.Accordingly,the paper puts forward several policy recommendations.

An Empirical Evidence of the Consumption Function for Turkey

The aim of this paper is to test the Hall （1978）＇s permanent income hypothesis by the specification proposed by Campbell and Mankiw （1989） and Rao （2005）, and five consumptions function specifications of Ghali and Renaud （1971） for a small-open economy, Turkey. We used three methods to investigate the per capita disposable income elasticity of consumption. These are Ordinary Least Squares, Two Stage Ordinary Least Squares with instrument variable and Non-Linear Least Squares with instrument variable for to estimate the specifications. The results indicate that nearly 90% of the consumers in Turkey use the rule of thumb of current disposable income to determine the current consumption. The estimates for the Ghali and Renaud （1971） specifications are consistent by the Rao （2005） concerning the income elasticity of consumption parameter.

Accurate Understanding of China's Income, Consumption and Investment

This study elaborates on the differences between resident disposable income in the flow of fimds table and in the household survey; between household consumption in expenditure- based GDP and in the household survey; and between gross fixed capital formation in expenditure-based GDP and total fixed asset investment in the whole country as shown in investment statistics, from the point of view of their basic concepts and purposes, scope of specifications, data sources, calculation methods and data presentation. We show that the household survey somewhat underestimates household income and consumption, while investment statistics somewhat overestimate total investment in fixed assets. This does not, however, directly affect the accurate understanding of such major economic structures as the structure of the distribution of Chinese nationals＇ disposable income among households, enterprises and government, the structure of final demand, etc.

Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption in China

The paper investigates the relationship between changes in asset wealth and the trend movements of household consumption in urban China. Using the vector error correction cointegration model we demonstrate that there is a unique long-run cointegrating relationship between household consumption, disposable income, financial wealth and housing wealth in urban China. We find that housing wealth is the only factor that restores the long-run equilibrium relationship when the cointegrated system is disturbed by an external shock. In addition, our permanent-transitory variance decomposition analysis indicates that nearly all variance in the movement of consumption is permanent, supporting the classical random walk hypothesis of consumption behavior. However, a large proportion of variance in the short-run movements of housing wealth is found to be transitory.