Asymmetric relationship between global and national factors and domestic food prices:evidence from Turkey with novel nonlinear approaches

This study investigates the asymmetric relationship between global and national fac-tors and domestic food prices in Turkey,considering the recent rapid and continuous increase in domestic food prices.In this context,six global and three national explana-tory variables were included,and monthly data for the period from January 2004 to June 2021 were used.In addition,novel nonlinear time-series econometric approaches,such as wavelet coherence,Granger causality in quantiles,and quantile-on-quantile regression,were applied for examination at different times,frequencies,and quan-tiles.Moreover,the Toda-Yamamoto(TY)causality test and quantile regression(QR)approach were used for robustness checks.The empirical results revealed that(i)there is a significant relationship between domestic food prices and explanatory variables at different times and frequencies;(ii)a causal relationship exists in most quantiles,excluding the lowest quantile,some middle quantiles,and the highest quantile for some variables;(iii)the power of the effect of the explanatory variables on domestic food prices varies according to the quantiles;and(iv)the results were validated by the TY causality test and QR,which show that the results were robust.Overall,the empiri-cal results reveal that global and national factors have an asymmetric relationship with domestic food prices,highlighting the effects of fluctuations in global and national variables on domestic food prices.Thus,the results imply that Turkish policymakers should consider the asymmetric effects of global and national factors on domestic food prices at different times,frequencies,and quantiles.

Inflationary effects of oil prices and domestic gasoline prices:Markov-switching-VAR analysis

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.

Analysis on China Cotton Market

China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especially from a viewpoint of history to study domestic market price fluctuation. The cotton market history from E R. China＇s setting up to present has been divided into four stages and characterized as different agricultural policies applications and economic periodicities. Concluding from the history, artificial influences may be the most important reason of market inequilibrium, up to now, market and artificial interruption, are also the key problem. Then it takes domestic cotton demand as a study object, trying to find what will be a statistic significant cotton demand in national level and it＇s underneath demand frame. Through a seres of analysis on the demand frame, problems have been clearly displayed, an open microeconomic circulation supports our study and six variables had been described by statistics. Therefore, we can analyze the cases of real cotton demand that includes supply and demand reactions in China with experience and estimations. Otherwise, international cotton market is greatly interacted with Chinese domestic market more and more today. Some necessary analysis, such as international cotton supply and demand, Chinese cotton stock policy and world price long run tendency, are very important factors for Chinese cotton development. Those may concern Chinese access to WTO, cotton trade quota and tariff, welfare comparison, etc., all have been discussed in the paper.