Dose-Injury Relation as a Model for Uncertainty Propagation from Input Dose to Target Dose

We study a general framework for assessing the injury probability corresponding to an input dose quantity. In many applications, the true value of input dose may not be directly measurable. Instead, the input dose is estimated from measurable/controllable quantities via numerical simulations using assumed representative parameter values. We aim at developing a simple modeling framework for accommodating all uncertainties, including the discrepancy between the estimated input dose and the true input dose. We first interpret the widely used logistic dose-injury model as the result of dose propagation uncertainty from input dose to target dose at the active site for injury where the binary outcome is completely determined by the target dose. We specify the symmetric logistic dose-injury function using two shape parameters: the median injury dose and the 10 - 90 percentile width. We relate the two shape parameters of injury function to the mean and standard deviation of the dose propagation uncertainty. We find 1) a larger total uncertainty will spread more the dose-response function, increasing the 10 - 90 percentile width and 2) a systematic over-estimate of the input dose will shift the injury probability toward the right along the estimated input dose. This framework provides a way of revising an established injury model for a particular test population to predict the injury model for a new population with different distributions of parameters that affect the dose propagation and dose estimation. In addition to modeling dose propagation uncertainty, we propose a new 3-parameter model to include the skewness of injury function. The proposed 3-parameter function form is based on shifted log-normal distribution of dose propagation uncertainty and is approximately invariant when other uncertainties are added. The proposed 3-parameter function form provides a framework for extending skewed injury model from a test population to a target population in application.

A COMPUTER SIMULATION OF HIGH-DOSE ION IMPLANTATION INTO AMORPHOUS MATERIALS

A computer program MACA was developed for simulating high-dose ion implantation into amorphous solids. The topology of amorphous solids was modelled by adjusting the free flight path distribution between collisions, so that the radial distribution function will characterize the short - range order and long - range disorder of amorphous targets. A simulation example is given.

Utility of the low-accelerating-dose regimen in 182 liver recipients with recurrent hepatitis C virus

AIM: To describe our experience using a low-acceleratingdose regimen(LADR) with pegylated interferon alpha-2a and ribavirin in treatment of hepatitis C virus(HCV) recurrence. METHODS: From 2003, a protocolized LADR strategy was employed to treat liver transplant(LT) recipients with recurrent HCV at our institution. Medical records of 182 adult patients with recurrent HCV treated with LADR between 1/2003 and 1/2011 were reviewed. Histopathology from all post-LT liver biopsies were reviewed in a blinded fashion. Paired recipient and donor IL28 B status were assessed. A novel technique was employed to ascertain recipient and donor IL28B(rs12979860) Gt data using DNA extracted from archival FFPE tissue from explanted native livers and donor gallbladders respectively. The primary endpoint was SVR; secondary endpoints examined include(1) patient and graft survival;(2) effect of anti-viral therapy on liver histology(fibrosis and inflammation);(3) incidence of on-treatment development of ACR, CDR, or PCH;(4) association of recipient and donor IL28 B genotype with SVR; and(5) incidence of antiviral therapy-associated adverse events(anemia, leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, depression) and hepatic decompensation.RESULTS: The overall SVR rate was 38%(29% Gt1, 67% Gt2, 86% Gt3 and 58% Gt4). HCV Gt(P < 0.0001), donor age(P = 0.003), cytomegalovirus mismatch(P = 0.001), baseline serum bilirubin(P = 0.002), and baseline viral load(P = 0.04) were independent predictors for SVR. SVR rates were significantly higher in the recipient-CC/donor-non CC pairs(P = 0.007). Neither baseline fibrosis nor change in fibrosis stage after anti-viral therapy were associated with SVR. Fibrosis progressed in 72% of patients despite SVR. Median graft survival was 91 mo. Five-year patient survival was superior in patients who achieved SVR(97% vs 82%, P = 0.001). Pre-treatment ALP ≥ 150 U/L(P = 0.01), total bilirubin ≥ 1.5 mg/d L(P = 0.001) and creatinine ≥ 2 mg/d L(P = 0.001) were independently associated with patient survival. Only 13% of patients achieving SVR died during the followup period. Treatment discontinuation and treatmentrelated mortality occurred in 35% and 2.2% of patients, respectively. EPO, G-CSF and blood transfusion were needed in 89%, 40% and 23% of patients, respectively. Overall hospitalization rate for treatment-related serious adverse events was 21%. Forty-six(25%) of the patients were deceased; among those who died, 25(54%) were due to liver-related complications, and 4 deaths(9%) occurred while receiving therapy(2 patients experienced hepatic decompensation and 2 sepsis). CONCLUSION: LADR strategy remains relevant in managing post-LT recurrent HCV where access to DAAs is limited. SVR is associated with improved survival, but fibrosis progression still occurs.