目的基于传染病动力学SEAIQR(susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infected-quarantined-removed)模型和Dropout-LSTM(Dropout long short term memory network)模型预测西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的发展趋势,为评估“动态清...目的基于传染病动力学SEAIQR(susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infected-quarantined-removed)模型和Dropout-LSTM(Dropout long short term memory network)模型预测西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的发展趋势,为评估“动态清零”策略防控效果提供科学依据。方法考虑到西安市本轮疫情存在大量的无症状感染者、依时变化的参数以及采取的管控举措等特点,构建具有阶段性防控措施的时变SEAIQR模型。考虑到COVID-19疫情数据的时序性特征及它们之间的非线性关系,构建深度学习Dropout-LSTM模型。选用2021年12月9日-2022年1月31日西安市新增确诊病例数据进行拟合,用2022年2月1日-2022年2月7日数据评估预测效果,计算有效再生数(R_(t))并评价不同参数对疫情发展的影响。结果SEAIQR模型预测的新增确诊病例拐点预计在2021年12月26日出现,约为176例,疫情将于2022年1月24日实现“动态清零”,模型R^(2)=0.849。Dropout-LSTM模型能够体现数据的时序性与非线性特征,预测出的新增确诊病例数与实际情况高度吻合,R^(2)=0.937。Dropout-LSTM模型的MAE和RMSE均较SEAIQR模型低,说明预测结果更为理想。疫情暴发初期,R 0为5.63,自实施全面管控后,R_(t)呈逐渐下降趋势,直到2021年12月27日降至1.0以下。随着有效接触率不断缩小、管控措施的提早实施及免疫阈值的提高,新增确诊病例在到达拐点时的人数将会持续降低。结论建立的Dropout-LSTM模型实现了较准确的疫情预测,可为COVID-19疫情“动态清零”防控决策提供借鉴。展开更多
Artificial neural networks(ANN) have been extensively researched due to their significant energy-saving benefits.Hardware implementations of ANN with dropout function would be able to avoid the overfitting problem. Th...Artificial neural networks(ANN) have been extensively researched due to their significant energy-saving benefits.Hardware implementations of ANN with dropout function would be able to avoid the overfitting problem. This letter reports a dropout neuronal unit(1R1T-DNU) based on one memristor–one electrolyte-gated transistor with an ultralow energy consumption of 25 p J/spike. A dropout neural network is constructed based on such a device and has been verified by MNIST dataset, demonstrating high recognition accuracies(> 90%) within a large range of dropout probabilities up to40%. The running time can be reduced by increasing dropout probability without a significant loss in accuracy. Our results indicate the great potential of introducing such 1R1T-DNUs in full-hardware neural networks to enhance energy efficiency and to solve the overfitting problem.展开更多
This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the sparse inverse covariance matrixfor longitudinal data with informative dropouts. Based on the modified Cholesky decomposition,the sparse inverse covariance matrix ...This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the sparse inverse covariance matrixfor longitudinal data with informative dropouts. Based on the modified Cholesky decomposition,the sparse inverse covariance matrix is modelled by the autoregressive regression model,which guarantees the positive definiteness of the covariance matrix. To account for the informativedropouts, we then propose a penalized estimating equation method using the inverse probabilityweighting approach. The informative dropout propensity parameters are estimated by the generalizedmethod of moments. The asymptotic properties are investigated for the resulting estimators.Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method through Monte Carlosimulations and a practical application.展开更多
Flipover,an enhanced dropout technique,is introduced to improve the robustness of artificial neural networks.In contrast to dropout,which involves randomly removing certain neurons and their connections,flipover rando...Flipover,an enhanced dropout technique,is introduced to improve the robustness of artificial neural networks.In contrast to dropout,which involves randomly removing certain neurons and their connections,flipover randomly selects neurons and reverts their outputs using a negative multiplier during training.This approach offers stronger regularization than conventional dropout,refining model performance by(1)mitigating overfitting,matching or even exceeding the efficacy of dropout;(2)amplifying robustness to noise;and(3)enhancing resilience against adversarial attacks.Extensive experiments across various neural networks affirm the effectiveness of flipover in deep learning.展开更多
文摘目的基于传染病动力学SEAIQR(susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infected-quarantined-removed)模型和Dropout-LSTM(Dropout long short term memory network)模型预测西安市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的发展趋势,为评估“动态清零”策略防控效果提供科学依据。方法考虑到西安市本轮疫情存在大量的无症状感染者、依时变化的参数以及采取的管控举措等特点,构建具有阶段性防控措施的时变SEAIQR模型。考虑到COVID-19疫情数据的时序性特征及它们之间的非线性关系,构建深度学习Dropout-LSTM模型。选用2021年12月9日-2022年1月31日西安市新增确诊病例数据进行拟合,用2022年2月1日-2022年2月7日数据评估预测效果,计算有效再生数(R_(t))并评价不同参数对疫情发展的影响。结果SEAIQR模型预测的新增确诊病例拐点预计在2021年12月26日出现,约为176例,疫情将于2022年1月24日实现“动态清零”,模型R^(2)=0.849。Dropout-LSTM模型能够体现数据的时序性与非线性特征,预测出的新增确诊病例数与实际情况高度吻合,R^(2)=0.937。Dropout-LSTM模型的MAE和RMSE均较SEAIQR模型低,说明预测结果更为理想。疫情暴发初期,R 0为5.63,自实施全面管控后,R_(t)呈逐渐下降趋势,直到2021年12月27日降至1.0以下。随着有效接触率不断缩小、管控措施的提早实施及免疫阈值的提高,新增确诊病例在到达拐点时的人数将会持续降低。结论建立的Dropout-LSTM模型实现了较准确的疫情预测,可为COVID-19疫情“动态清零”防控决策提供借鉴。
基金Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2021YFA1202600 and 2023YFE0208600)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 62174082, 92364106, 61921005, 92364204, and 62074075)。
文摘Artificial neural networks(ANN) have been extensively researched due to their significant energy-saving benefits.Hardware implementations of ANN with dropout function would be able to avoid the overfitting problem. This letter reports a dropout neuronal unit(1R1T-DNU) based on one memristor–one electrolyte-gated transistor with an ultralow energy consumption of 25 p J/spike. A dropout neural network is constructed based on such a device and has been verified by MNIST dataset, demonstrating high recognition accuracies(> 90%) within a large range of dropout probabilities up to40%. The running time can be reduced by increasing dropout probability without a significant loss in accuracy. Our results indicate the great potential of introducing such 1R1T-DNUs in full-hardware neural networks to enhance energy efficiency and to solve the overfitting problem.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12171450).
文摘This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the sparse inverse covariance matrixfor longitudinal data with informative dropouts. Based on the modified Cholesky decomposition,the sparse inverse covariance matrix is modelled by the autoregressive regression model,which guarantees the positive definiteness of the covariance matrix. To account for the informativedropouts, we then propose a penalized estimating equation method using the inverse probabilityweighting approach. The informative dropout propensity parameters are estimated by the generalizedmethod of moments. The asymptotic properties are investigated for the resulting estimators.Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method through Monte Carlosimulations and a practical application.
基金supported in part by the National Institutes of Health,Nos.R01CA237267,R01HL151561,R01EB031102,and R01EB032716.
文摘Flipover,an enhanced dropout technique,is introduced to improve the robustness of artificial neural networks.In contrast to dropout,which involves randomly removing certain neurons and their connections,flipover randomly selects neurons and reverts their outputs using a negative multiplier during training.This approach offers stronger regularization than conventional dropout,refining model performance by(1)mitigating overfitting,matching or even exceeding the efficacy of dropout;(2)amplifying robustness to noise;and(3)enhancing resilience against adversarial attacks.Extensive experiments across various neural networks affirm the effectiveness of flipover in deep learning.
