Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardiz...Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index is calculated using monthly meteorological data from 1984 to 2020 in Shandong Province of China and is used to identify the province’s drought and flood characteristics.Then,food losses due to droughts and floods are estimated separately from disaster loss data.Finally,the relationship between drought/flood-related factors and food losses is quantified using methods such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression.The results show that:1)there is a trend of aridity in Shandong Province,and the drought characteristic variables are increasing yearly while flood duration and severity are decreasing.2)The food losses caused by droughts in Shandong Province are more than those caused by floods,and the area where droughts and floods occur frequently is located in Linyi City.3)The impact of precipitation on food loss due to drought/flood is significant,followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature.4)The relationship between drought and flood conditions and food losses can be precisely quantified.The accumulated drought duration of one month led to 1.939×10^(4)t of grain loss,and an increase in cumulative flood duration of one month resulted in1.134×10^(4)t of grain loss.If the cumulative drought severity and average drought peak increased by one unit,food loss due to drought will increase by 1.562×10^(4)t and 1.511×10^(6)t,respectively.If the cumulative flood severity and average flood peak increase by one unit,food loss will increase by 8.470×103t and 1.034×10^(6)t,respectively.展开更多
The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern China and northern China,known as the“southern floo...The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern China and northern China,known as the“southern flooding and northern drought”(SF-ND)pattern.In 2015,China experienced heavy rainfall in the south and the worst drought since 1979 in the north,which caused huge social and economic losses.Using reanalysis data,the atmospheric circulation anomalies and possible mechanisms related to the summer precipitation anomalies in 2015 were examined.The results showed that both El Niño and certain atmospheric teleconnections,including the Pacific Japan/East Asia Pacific(PJ/EAP),Eurasia pattern(EU),British–Baikal Corridor pattern(BBC),and Silk Road mode(SR),contributed to the dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies.The combination of these factors caused a southwards shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and a weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon.Consequently,it was difficult for the monsoon front and associated rain band to migrate northwards,which meant that less precipitation occurred in northern China while more precipitation occurred in southern China.This resulted in the SF-ND event.Moreover,further analysis revealed that global sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)or sea-ice anomalies were key to stimulating these atmospheric teleconnections.展开更多
With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from ...With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022,it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence(VIMFC)anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years,and the VIMFC,a physical quantity,can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the"strong signal"of drought and flood in southern China.Specifically,in drought years,the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent,while those are opposite in flood years.Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022,five SST high impact areas(i.e.,the North Pacific Ocean,Northwest Pacific Ocean,Southwest Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and East Pacific Ocean)are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months(May and June)and in the study period(July and August)in 1961-2022,and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified.Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport.Furthermore,it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other,namely an anticyclonic(cyclonic)circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China.These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought(flood)in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.展开更多
Droughts and soil erosion are among the most prominent climatic driven hazards in drylands,leading to detrimental environmental impacts,such as degraded lands,deteriorated ecosystem services and biodiversity,and incre...Droughts and soil erosion are among the most prominent climatic driven hazards in drylands,leading to detrimental environmental impacts,such as degraded lands,deteriorated ecosystem services and biodiversity,and increased greenhouse gas emissions.In response to the current lack of studies combining drought conditions and soil erosion processes,in this study,we developed a comprehensive Geographic Information System(GIS)-based approach to assess soil erosion and droughts,thereby revealing the relationship between soil erosion and droughts under an arid climate.The vegetation condition index(VCI)and temperature condition index(TCI)derived respectively from the enhanced vegetation index(EVI)MOD13A2 and land surface temperature(LST)MOD11A2 products were combined to generate the vegetation health index(VHI).The VHI has been conceived as an efficient tool to monitor droughts in the Negueb watershed,southeastern Tunisia.The revised universal soil loss equation(RUSLE)model was applied to quantitatively estimate soil erosion.The relationship between soil erosion and droughts was investigated through Pearson correlation.Results exhibited that the Negueb watershed experienced recurrent mild to extreme drought during 2000–2016.The average soil erosion rate was determined to be 1.8 t/(hm2•a).The mountainous western part of the watershed was the most vulnerable not only to soil erosion but also to droughts.The slope length and steepness factor was shown to be the most significant controlling parameter driving soil erosion.The relationship between droughts and soil erosion had a positive correlation(r=0.3);however,the correlation was highly varied spatially across the watershed.Drought was linked to soil erosion in the Negueb watershed.The current study provides insight for natural disaster risk assessment,land managers,and stake-holders to apply appropriate management measures to promote sustainable development goals in fragile environments.展开更多
Based on the annual variation of the rainfall departure percentage in summer in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valley, 7 cases for the abnormal drought and flooding summers (the dro...Based on the annual variation of the rainfall departure percentage in summer in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valley, 7 cases for the abnormal drought and flooding summers (the drought years: 1981. 1984, 1985; the flooding yearst 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987) are selected. First we analyse the general circulation characteristics of the summer drought and flooding, and then the evolution processes of the general circulation patterns from preceding winters to summers are studied. It is found that during the two kinds of preceding winters for the drought and flooding summer, not only the general circulation patterns in the high-mid latitudes, the local Hadley cells in East Asia but also the activities of the cold surge in the lower latitude are different obviously. Spring, especially April, is the turning period of the general circulation in preceding winter for the drought or nooding summer evolution towards opposite direction. Hereafter, the drought or flooding circulation pattern is established and developed.展开更多
The effect of global climate change on vegetation growth is variable.Timely and effective monitoring of vegetation drought is crucial for understanding its dynamics and mitigation,and even regional protection of ecolo...The effect of global climate change on vegetation growth is variable.Timely and effective monitoring of vegetation drought is crucial for understanding its dynamics and mitigation,and even regional protection of ecological environments.In this study,we constructed a new drought index(i.e.,Vegetation Drought Condition Index(VDCI))based on precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,soil moisture and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)data,to monitor vegetation drought in the nine major river basins(including the Songhua River and Liaohe River Basin,Haihe River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Huaihe River Basin,Yangtze River Basin,Southeast River Basin,Pearl River Basin,Southwest River Basin and Continental River Basin)in China at 1-month–12-month(T1–T12)time scales.We used the Pearson's correlation coefficients to assess the relationships between the drought indices(the developed VDCI and traditional drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSMI)and Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(scPDSI))and the NDVI at T1–T12 time scales,and to estimate and compare the lag times of vegetation response to drought among different drought indices.The results showed that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration have positive and major influences on vegetation in the nine major river basins at T1–T6 time scales.Soil moisture shows a lower degree of negative influence on vegetation in different river basins at multiple time scales.Potential evapotranspiration shows a higher degree of positive influence on vegetation,and it acts as the primary influencing factor with higher area proportion at multiple time scales in different river basins.The VDCI has a stronger relationship with the NDVI in the Songhua River and Liaohe River Basin,Haihe River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Huaihe River Basin and Yangtze River Basin at T1–T4 time scales.In general,the VDCI is more sensitive(with shorter lag time of vegetation response to drought)than the traditional drought indices(SPEI,scPDSI and SSMI)in monitoring vegetation drought,and thus it could be applied to monitor short-term vegetation drought.The VDCI developed in the study can reveal the law of unclear mechanisms between vegetation and climate,and can be applied in other fields of vegetation drought monitoring with complex mechanisms.展开更多
To analyze the characteristics of drought and flood variations in Quanzhou during recent 55 years, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Fu...To analyze the characteristics of drought and flood variations in Quanzhou during recent 55 years, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) were calculated by using the monthly precipitation data from 6 meteorological bureaus across Quanzhou for 1960-2014. Results showed that: 1) During 1960-2014, the drought and flood showed Periodic variation characteristics in Quanzhou, the specific period of frequent drought was 1963-1972, 1977-1986 and 2009-2011, and the specific period of frequent flood was 1961-1962, 1972-1975, 1990-1992 and 1997-2007;the drought and flood did not have significant tendency of variation in Spring and Summer, and the drought and flood showed a non-significant downward trend in Autumn and Winter. 2) The drought and flood variation had relatively consistent trend in Quanzhou, but there was a big difference on the northwest mountainous area, the middle semi-mountainous area and the southeast coast area in some periods. 3) The precipitation cell and distribution in every season were Nan’an and Anxi, but there was a big difference in rainfall less area: it was Yongchun and Dehua in Spring, Chongwu and Jinjiang in Summer, Chongwu in Autumn, Dehua and Chongwu in Winter.展开更多
To comprehensively investigate characteristics of summer droughts and floods in the Yangtze River valley, a meteorological and hydrological coupling index (MHCI) was developed using meteorological and hydro- logical...To comprehensively investigate characteristics of summer droughts and floods in the Yangtze River valley, a meteorological and hydrological coupling index (MHCI) was developed using meteorological and hydro- logical data. The results indicate that: (1) in representing drought/flood information for the Yangtze River valley, the MHCI can reflect composite features of precipitation and hydrological observations; (2) compre- hensive analysis of the interannual phase difference of the precipitation and hydrological indices is important to recognize and predict annual drought/flood events along the valley; the hydrological index contributes more strongly to nonlinear and continuity features that indicate transition from long-term drought to flood conditions; (3) time series of the MHCI from 1960-2009 are very effective and sensitive in reflecting annual drought/flood characteristics, i.e. there is more rainfall or typical flooding in the valley when the MHCI is positive, and vice versa; and (4) verification of the MHCI indicates that there is significant correlation between precipitation and hydrologic responses in the valley during summer; the correlation coefficient was found to reach 0.82, exceeding the 0.001 significance level.展开更多
The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China(FPENC)provides an important ecological barrier which restrains the invasion of desert into Northwest China.Studying drought and flood characteristics in the FPENC can pro...The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China(FPENC)provides an important ecological barrier which restrains the invasion of desert into Northwest China.Studying drought and flood characteristics in the FPENC can provide scientific support and practical basis for the protection of the FPENC.Based on monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations,we determined the changes in climate and the temporal and spatial variations of drought and flood occurrence in the FPENC during 1960-2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Morlet wavelet transform,and inverse distance weighted interpolation method.Annual precipitation in the FPENC showed a slightly increasing trend from 1960 to 2020,with an increasing rate of about 1.15 mm/a.The interannual SPI exhibited obvious fluctuations,showing an overall non-significant upward trend(increasing rate of 0.02/a).Therefore,the study area showed a wetting trend in recent years.Drought and flood disasters mainly occurred on an interannual change cycle of 2-6 and 9-17 a,respectively.In the future,a tendency towards drought can be expected in the FPENC.The temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood differed in the northwestern,northern,and northeastern segments of the FPENC,and most of the drought and flood disasters occurred in local areas.Severe and extreme drought disasters were concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern segments,and severe and extreme flood disasters were mainly in the northeastern segment.Drought was most frequent in the northwestern segment,the central part of the northeastern segment,and the northern part of the northern segment.Flood was most frequent in the western part of the northwestern segment,the eastern part of the northeastern segment,and the eastern and western parts of the northern segment.The accurate evaluation of the degrees of drought and flood disasters in the FPENC will provide scientific basis for the regional climate study and critical information on which to base decisions regarding environmental protection and socio-economic development in this region.展开更多
Spatio-temporal analysis of drought provides valuable information for drought management and damage mitigation. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index at the time scale of 6 months (SPI-6) is selected to ...Spatio-temporal analysis of drought provides valuable information for drought management and damage mitigation. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index at the time scale of 6 months (SPI-6) is selected to reflect drought conditions in the North-Eastern coastal region of Vietnam. The drought events and their characteristics from 1981 to 2019 are detected at 9 meteorological stations and 10 Chirps rainfall stations. The spatio-temporal variation of drought in the study region is analyzed on the basis of the number, duration, severity, intensity, and peak of the detected drought events at the 19 stations. The results show that from 1981 to 2019 the drought events mainly occurred with 1-season duration and moderate intensity and peak. The number, duration, severity, and peak of the drought events were the greatest in the period 2001-2010 and were the smallest in the period 2011-2019. Among the 19 stations, the drought duration tends to decrease at 11 stations, increase at 7 stations, and has a slight variant at 1 station;the drought severity tends to decrease at 14 stations, increase at 4 stations, and has not a significant trend at 1 station;the drought intensity tends to decrease at 17 stations, increase at 1 station, and has a slight variant at 1 station;and the drought peak tends to decrease at 18 stations and increase at 1 station.展开更多
As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in w...As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study therefore sought to investigate the rainfall variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in the study area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I and Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought variables (severity and duration) for future planning and management. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that based on 12-month SPI, Bamako experienced two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) and another in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). Drought years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI for annual totals. The result further indicated that based on the goodness of fit test, the P3 distribution represents the best fitted distribution to both drought severity and duration over Bamako. Bamako is expected to experience several severe severities with higher and shorter duration in the future. Severities with 1, 2, 6, and 10-month duration had return periods ranged from 2.4 to 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods had 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, and 49.14 severities, respectively, and durations associated to these severities were 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, and 48.2 months, respectively.展开更多
Based on the data of annual average precipitation in Deyang area and its five stations (Mianzhu, Deyang, Zhongjiang, Shifang and Guanghan) from 1984 to 2013, the annual precipitation anomaly percentage was calculated,...Based on the data of annual average precipitation in Deyang area and its five stations (Mianzhu, Deyang, Zhongjiang, Shifang and Guanghan) from 1984 to 2013, the annual precipitation anomaly percentage was calculated, and then the flood and drought situation in Deyang area was graded to discuss the variation characteristics of droughts and floods in the past 30 years. The results show that the cycle of droughts and floods in Deyang was about 3-5 a. The precipitation anomaly percentage indicates that the climate in Deyang area of Sichuan tended to be dry slowly in the past 30 years, and Deyang gradually entered a dry and warm period.展开更多
Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes and environment evolution,espectial-lyin the aspect of calamities,are made on the history documents of past 1500 years about Haiˊan region,Jian...Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes and environment evolution,espectial-lyin the aspect of calamities,are made on the history documents of past 1500 years about Haiˊan region,Jiangsu Province.There existed two obvious flooding-drought frequently-occurring periods:one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 100 AD to 1200AD.The period of 1550 AD to1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD.The main characteristic of the calamity periods is that they occurred by turns,and sometimes,both drought and flooding occurred in the same year.The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the main reason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Haiˊan region.Research results also show that the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with the solar activity,and therefore,occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with the intensity of the solar activity.This hypothesis may need further study in the future.展开更多
Due to the lack of a uniform and accurate defi-nition of‘drought’,several indicators have been introduced based on different variables and methods,and the efficiency of each of these is determined according to their...Due to the lack of a uniform and accurate defi-nition of‘drought’,several indicators have been introduced based on different variables and methods,and the efficiency of each of these is determined according to their relationship with drought.The relationship between two drought indices,SPI(standardized precipitation index)and SPEI(standard-ized precipitation-evapotranspiration index)in different sea-sons was investigated using annual rings of 15 tree samples to determine the effect of drought on the growth of oriental beech(Fagus orientalis Lipsky)in the Hyrcanian forests of northern Iran.The different evapotranspiration calcula-tion methods were evaluated on SPEI efficiency based on Hargreaves-Samani,Thornthwaite,and Penman-Monteith methods using the step-by-step M5 decision tree regression method.The results show that SPEI based on the Penman-Monteith in a three-month time scale(spring)had similar temporal changes and a better relationship with annual tree rings(R^(2)=0.81)at a 0.05 significant level.Abrupt change and a decreasing trend in the time series of annual tree rings are similar to the variation in the SPEI based on the Penman-Monteith method.Factors affecting evapotranspiration,temperature,wind speed,and sunshine hours(used in the Penman-Monteith method),increased but precipitation decreased.Using non-linear modeling methods,SPEI based on Penman-Monteith best illustrated climate changes affecting tree growth.展开更多
Drought(water shortage)can substantially limit the yield and economic value of rose plants(Rosa spp.).Here,we characterized the effect of exogenous calcium(Ca^(2+))on the antioxidant system and photosynthesis-related ...Drought(water shortage)can substantially limit the yield and economic value of rose plants(Rosa spp.).Here,we characterized the effect of exogenous calcium(Ca^(2+))on the antioxidant system and photosynthesis-related properties of rose under polyethylene glycol 6000(PEG6000)-induced drought stress.Chlorophyll levels,as well as leaf and root biomass,were significantly reduced by drought;drought also had a major effect on the enzymatic antioxidant system and increased concentrations of reactive oxygen species.Application of exogenous Ca^(2+)increased the net photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance of leaves,enhanced water-use efficiency,and increased the length and width of stomata following exposure to drought.Organ-specific physiological responses were observed under different concentrations of Ca^(2+).Application of 5 mmol·L^(-1)Ca^(2+)promoted photosynthesis and antioxidant activity in the leaves,and application of 10 mmol·L^(-1)Ca^(2+)promoted antioxidant activity in the roots.Application of exogenous Ca^(2+)greatly enhanced the phenotype and photosynthetic capacity of potted rose plants following exposure to drought stress.Overall,our findings indicate that the application of exogenous Ca^(2+)enhances the drought resistance of roses by promoting physiological adaptation and that it could be used to aid the cultivation of rose plants.展开更多
The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and pre...The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.展开更多
The impacts of climate change on the discharge regimes in New Brunswick (Canada) were analyzed, using artificial neural network models. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Mode...The impacts of climate change on the discharge regimes in New Brunswick (Canada) were analyzed, using artificial neural network models. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Model (CGCM3.1) under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios B1 and A2 defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate change fields (temperatures and precipitation) were downscaled using the delta change approach. Using the artificial neural network, future river discharge was predicted for selected hydrometric stations. Then, a frequency analysis was carried out using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function, where the parameters of the distribution were estimated using L-moments method. Depending on the scenario and the time slice used, the increase in low return floods was about 30% and about 15% for higher return floods. Low flows showed increases of about 10% for low return droughts and about 20% for higher return droughts. An important part of the design process using frequency analysis is the estimation of future change in floods or droughts under climate scenarios at a given site and for specific return periods. This was carried out through the development of Regional Climate Index (RCI), linking future floods and droughts to their frequencies under climate scenarios B1 and A2.展开更多
Ecosystems have increasingly been subject to the challenge of heavy drought under global warming. To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of drought on ecosystems, it is necessary to develop a drought index that can se...Ecosystems have increasingly been subject to the challenge of heavy drought under global warming. To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of drought on ecosystems, it is necessary to develop a drought index that can sensitively depict the response of vegetation to drought evolution at a biological time scale. For the ability of direct connection between climate and ecosystem by deficit of evapotranspiration, in the present study, a drought index was defined based on standardized evapotranspiration deficit (SEDI), according to the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration, to meet the need for highlighting drought impacts on ecological processes. Comparisons with traditional indices show that SEDI can reasonably detect droughts and climatic dry and wet transitions, especially at a monthly time scale, and can also regenerate long-term trends. Moreover, SEDI can more sensitively capture the biological changes of ecosystems in response to the dynamics of drought intensity, compared with the indices of precipitation and temperature. SEDI is more practical than the precipitation and temperature indices to highlight signals of biological effects in climate droughts. Hence, it has potential for use in assessments of climate change and its impact on ecosystems.展开更多
Agricultural drought is a type of natural disaster that seriously impacts food security.Because the relationships among short-term rainfall,soil moisture,and crop growth are complex,accurate identification of a drough...Agricultural drought is a type of natural disaster that seriously impacts food security.Because the relationships among short-term rainfall,soil moisture,and crop growth are complex,accurate identification of a drought situation is difficult.In this study,using a conceptual model based on the relationship between water deficit and crop yield reduction,we evaluated the drought process in a typical rainfed agricultural region,Hailar county in Inner Mongolia autonomous region,China.To quantify drought,we used the precipitation-based Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),the soil moisture-based Crop Moisture Index(CMI),as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI).Correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between dekad-scale drought indices during the growing season(May–September)and final yield,according to data collection from 2000 to 2010.The results show that crop yield has positive relationships with CMI from mid-June to mid-July and with the NDVI anomaly throughout July,but no correlation with SPI.Further analysis of the relationship between the two drought indices shows that the NDVI anomaly responds to CMI with a lag of 1 dekad,particularly in July.To examine the feasibility of employing these indices for monitoring the drought process at a dekad time scale,a detailed drought assessment was carried out for selected drought years.The results confirm that the soil moisture-based vegetation indices in the late vegetative to early reproductive growth stages can be used to detect agricultural drought in the study area.Therefore,the framework of the conceptual model developed for drought monitoring can be employed to support drought mitigation in the rainfed agricultural region of Northern China.展开更多
The water deficit in arid and semi-arid regions is the primary limiting factor for the development of urban greenery and forestation. In addition, planting the species that consume low levels of water is useful in ari...The water deficit in arid and semi-arid regions is the primary limiting factor for the development of urban greenery and forestation. In addition, planting the species that consume low levels of water is useful in arid and semi-arid regions that have poor water management measures. Leaf water potential(Ψ) is a physiological parameter that can be used to identify drought resistance in various species. Indeed, Ψ is one of the most important properties of a plant that can be measured using a pressure chamber. Drought avoiding or drought resistant species have a lower Ψ than plants that use normal or high levels of water. To determine drought resistance of species that are suitable for afforestation in arid urban regions, we evaluated twenty woody species in the Isfahan City, central Iran. The experimental design was random split-split plots with five replications. The species were planted outdoor in plastic pots and then subjected to treatments that consisted of two soil types and five drip irrigation regimes. To evaluate the resistance of each species to drought, we used the Ψ and the number of survived plants to obtain the drought resistance index(DRI). Then, cluster analysis, dendrogram, and similarity index were used to group the species using DRI. Result indicates that the evaluated species were classified into five groups:(1) high water consuming species(DRI>–60 MPa);(2) above normal water consuming species(–60 MPa≥DRI>–90 MPa);(3) normal water consuming species(–90 MPa≥DRI>–120 MPa);(4) semi-drought resistant species(–120 MPa≥DRI>–150 MPa);and(5) drought resistant species(DRI≤–150 MPa). According to the DRI, Salix babylonica L., Populus alba L., and P. nigra L. are high water consuming species, Platanus orientalis L. and Albizia julibrissin Benth are normal water consuming species, and Quercus infectoria Oliv. and Olea europaea L. can be considered as drought resistant species.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the National Social Science Foundation of China (No.19CGL045)。
文摘Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index is calculated using monthly meteorological data from 1984 to 2020 in Shandong Province of China and is used to identify the province’s drought and flood characteristics.Then,food losses due to droughts and floods are estimated separately from disaster loss data.Finally,the relationship between drought/flood-related factors and food losses is quantified using methods such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression.The results show that:1)there is a trend of aridity in Shandong Province,and the drought characteristic variables are increasing yearly while flood duration and severity are decreasing.2)The food losses caused by droughts in Shandong Province are more than those caused by floods,and the area where droughts and floods occur frequently is located in Linyi City.3)The impact of precipitation on food loss due to drought/flood is significant,followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature.4)The relationship between drought and flood conditions and food losses can be precisely quantified.The accumulated drought duration of one month led to 1.939×10^(4)t of grain loss,and an increase in cumulative flood duration of one month resulted in1.134×10^(4)t of grain loss.If the cumulative drought severity and average drought peak increased by one unit,food loss due to drought will increase by 1.562×10^(4)t and 1.511×10^(6)t,respectively.If the cumulative flood severity and average flood peak increase by one unit,food loss will increase by 8.470×103t and 1.034×10^(6)t,respectively.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41991281,42130613 and 41705073)the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fundthe Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.
文摘The spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China often shows a dipole pattern,with anti-phased precipitation anomalies between southern China and northern China,known as the“southern flooding and northern drought”(SF-ND)pattern.In 2015,China experienced heavy rainfall in the south and the worst drought since 1979 in the north,which caused huge social and economic losses.Using reanalysis data,the atmospheric circulation anomalies and possible mechanisms related to the summer precipitation anomalies in 2015 were examined.The results showed that both El Niño and certain atmospheric teleconnections,including the Pacific Japan/East Asia Pacific(PJ/EAP),Eurasia pattern(EU),British–Baikal Corridor pattern(BBC),and Silk Road mode(SR),contributed to the dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies.The combination of these factors caused a southwards shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and a weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon.Consequently,it was difficult for the monsoon front and associated rain band to migrate northwards,which meant that less precipitation occurred in northern China while more precipitation occurred in southern China.This resulted in the SF-ND event.Moreover,further analysis revealed that global sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)or sea-ice anomalies were key to stimulating these atmospheric teleconnections.
基金The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)Program(2019QZKK0105)the Science and Technology Development Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2022KJ022)+2 种基金Special Fund for the Basic Scientific Research Expenses of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2021Z013)the Science and Technology Development Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2022KJ021)Major Projects of the Natural Science Foundation of China(91337000)。
文摘With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022,it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence(VIMFC)anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years,and the VIMFC,a physical quantity,can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the"strong signal"of drought and flood in southern China.Specifically,in drought years,the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent,while those are opposite in flood years.Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022,five SST high impact areas(i.e.,the North Pacific Ocean,Northwest Pacific Ocean,Southwest Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and East Pacific Ocean)are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months(May and June)and in the study period(July and August)in 1961-2022,and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified.Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport.Furthermore,it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other,namely an anticyclonic(cyclonic)circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China.These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought(flood)in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.
基金Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)The World Academy of Science (TWAS) for providing financial support
文摘Droughts and soil erosion are among the most prominent climatic driven hazards in drylands,leading to detrimental environmental impacts,such as degraded lands,deteriorated ecosystem services and biodiversity,and increased greenhouse gas emissions.In response to the current lack of studies combining drought conditions and soil erosion processes,in this study,we developed a comprehensive Geographic Information System(GIS)-based approach to assess soil erosion and droughts,thereby revealing the relationship between soil erosion and droughts under an arid climate.The vegetation condition index(VCI)and temperature condition index(TCI)derived respectively from the enhanced vegetation index(EVI)MOD13A2 and land surface temperature(LST)MOD11A2 products were combined to generate the vegetation health index(VHI).The VHI has been conceived as an efficient tool to monitor droughts in the Negueb watershed,southeastern Tunisia.The revised universal soil loss equation(RUSLE)model was applied to quantitatively estimate soil erosion.The relationship between soil erosion and droughts was investigated through Pearson correlation.Results exhibited that the Negueb watershed experienced recurrent mild to extreme drought during 2000–2016.The average soil erosion rate was determined to be 1.8 t/(hm2•a).The mountainous western part of the watershed was the most vulnerable not only to soil erosion but also to droughts.The slope length and steepness factor was shown to be the most significant controlling parameter driving soil erosion.The relationship between droughts and soil erosion had a positive correlation(r=0.3);however,the correlation was highly varied spatially across the watershed.Drought was linked to soil erosion in the Negueb watershed.The current study provides insight for natural disaster risk assessment,land managers,and stake-holders to apply appropriate management measures to promote sustainable development goals in fragile environments.
文摘Based on the annual variation of the rainfall departure percentage in summer in the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valley, 7 cases for the abnormal drought and flooding summers (the drought years: 1981. 1984, 1985; the flooding yearst 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987) are selected. First we analyse the general circulation characteristics of the summer drought and flooding, and then the evolution processes of the general circulation patterns from preceding winters to summers are studied. It is found that during the two kinds of preceding winters for the drought and flooding summer, not only the general circulation patterns in the high-mid latitudes, the local Hadley cells in East Asia but also the activities of the cold surge in the lower latitude are different obviously. Spring, especially April, is the turning period of the general circulation in preceding winter for the drought or nooding summer evolution towards opposite direction. Hereafter, the drought or flooding circulation pattern is established and developed.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52179015,42301024)the Key Technologies Research&Development and Promotion Program of Henan(232102110025)the Cultivation Plan of Innovative Scientific and Technological Team of Water Conservancy Engineering Discipline of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(CXTDPY-9).
文摘The effect of global climate change on vegetation growth is variable.Timely and effective monitoring of vegetation drought is crucial for understanding its dynamics and mitigation,and even regional protection of ecological environments.In this study,we constructed a new drought index(i.e.,Vegetation Drought Condition Index(VDCI))based on precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,soil moisture and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)data,to monitor vegetation drought in the nine major river basins(including the Songhua River and Liaohe River Basin,Haihe River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Huaihe River Basin,Yangtze River Basin,Southeast River Basin,Pearl River Basin,Southwest River Basin and Continental River Basin)in China at 1-month–12-month(T1–T12)time scales.We used the Pearson's correlation coefficients to assess the relationships between the drought indices(the developed VDCI and traditional drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),Standardized Soil Moisture Index(SSMI)and Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(scPDSI))and the NDVI at T1–T12 time scales,and to estimate and compare the lag times of vegetation response to drought among different drought indices.The results showed that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration have positive and major influences on vegetation in the nine major river basins at T1–T6 time scales.Soil moisture shows a lower degree of negative influence on vegetation in different river basins at multiple time scales.Potential evapotranspiration shows a higher degree of positive influence on vegetation,and it acts as the primary influencing factor with higher area proportion at multiple time scales in different river basins.The VDCI has a stronger relationship with the NDVI in the Songhua River and Liaohe River Basin,Haihe River Basin,Yellow River Basin,Huaihe River Basin and Yangtze River Basin at T1–T4 time scales.In general,the VDCI is more sensitive(with shorter lag time of vegetation response to drought)than the traditional drought indices(SPEI,scPDSI and SSMI)in monitoring vegetation drought,and thus it could be applied to monitor short-term vegetation drought.The VDCI developed in the study can reveal the law of unclear mechanisms between vegetation and climate,and can be applied in other fields of vegetation drought monitoring with complex mechanisms.
文摘To analyze the characteristics of drought and flood variations in Quanzhou during recent 55 years, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) were calculated by using the monthly precipitation data from 6 meteorological bureaus across Quanzhou for 1960-2014. Results showed that: 1) During 1960-2014, the drought and flood showed Periodic variation characteristics in Quanzhou, the specific period of frequent drought was 1963-1972, 1977-1986 and 2009-2011, and the specific period of frequent flood was 1961-1962, 1972-1975, 1990-1992 and 1997-2007;the drought and flood did not have significant tendency of variation in Spring and Summer, and the drought and flood showed a non-significant downward trend in Autumn and Winter. 2) The drought and flood variation had relatively consistent trend in Quanzhou, but there was a big difference on the northwest mountainous area, the middle semi-mountainous area and the southeast coast area in some periods. 3) The precipitation cell and distribution in every season were Nan’an and Anxi, but there was a big difference in rainfall less area: it was Yongchun and Dehua in Spring, Chongwu and Jinjiang in Summer, Chongwu in Autumn, Dehua and Chongwu in Winter.
基金supported by project GYHY201106050the National"973"Program of China under Grant No.2011CB403404,and Project No.2009Y002
文摘To comprehensively investigate characteristics of summer droughts and floods in the Yangtze River valley, a meteorological and hydrological coupling index (MHCI) was developed using meteorological and hydro- logical data. The results indicate that: (1) in representing drought/flood information for the Yangtze River valley, the MHCI can reflect composite features of precipitation and hydrological observations; (2) compre- hensive analysis of the interannual phase difference of the precipitation and hydrological indices is important to recognize and predict annual drought/flood events along the valley; the hydrological index contributes more strongly to nonlinear and continuity features that indicate transition from long-term drought to flood conditions; (3) time series of the MHCI from 1960-2009 are very effective and sensitive in reflecting annual drought/flood characteristics, i.e. there is more rainfall or typical flooding in the valley when the MHCI is positive, and vice versa; and (4) verification of the MHCI indicates that there is significant correlation between precipitation and hydrologic responses in the valley during summer; the correlation coefficient was found to reach 0.82, exceeding the 0.001 significance level.
基金This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871097).
文摘The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China(FPENC)provides an important ecological barrier which restrains the invasion of desert into Northwest China.Studying drought and flood characteristics in the FPENC can provide scientific support and practical basis for the protection of the FPENC.Based on monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations,we determined the changes in climate and the temporal and spatial variations of drought and flood occurrence in the FPENC during 1960-2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Morlet wavelet transform,and inverse distance weighted interpolation method.Annual precipitation in the FPENC showed a slightly increasing trend from 1960 to 2020,with an increasing rate of about 1.15 mm/a.The interannual SPI exhibited obvious fluctuations,showing an overall non-significant upward trend(increasing rate of 0.02/a).Therefore,the study area showed a wetting trend in recent years.Drought and flood disasters mainly occurred on an interannual change cycle of 2-6 and 9-17 a,respectively.In the future,a tendency towards drought can be expected in the FPENC.The temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood differed in the northwestern,northern,and northeastern segments of the FPENC,and most of the drought and flood disasters occurred in local areas.Severe and extreme drought disasters were concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern segments,and severe and extreme flood disasters were mainly in the northeastern segment.Drought was most frequent in the northwestern segment,the central part of the northeastern segment,and the northern part of the northern segment.Flood was most frequent in the western part of the northwestern segment,the eastern part of the northeastern segment,and the eastern and western parts of the northern segment.The accurate evaluation of the degrees of drought and flood disasters in the FPENC will provide scientific basis for the regional climate study and critical information on which to base decisions regarding environmental protection and socio-economic development in this region.
文摘Spatio-temporal analysis of drought provides valuable information for drought management and damage mitigation. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index at the time scale of 6 months (SPI-6) is selected to reflect drought conditions in the North-Eastern coastal region of Vietnam. The drought events and their characteristics from 1981 to 2019 are detected at 9 meteorological stations and 10 Chirps rainfall stations. The spatio-temporal variation of drought in the study region is analyzed on the basis of the number, duration, severity, intensity, and peak of the detected drought events at the 19 stations. The results show that from 1981 to 2019 the drought events mainly occurred with 1-season duration and moderate intensity and peak. The number, duration, severity, and peak of the drought events were the greatest in the period 2001-2010 and were the smallest in the period 2011-2019. Among the 19 stations, the drought duration tends to decrease at 11 stations, increase at 7 stations, and has a slight variant at 1 station;the drought severity tends to decrease at 14 stations, increase at 4 stations, and has not a significant trend at 1 station;the drought intensity tends to decrease at 17 stations, increase at 1 station, and has a slight variant at 1 station;and the drought peak tends to decrease at 18 stations and increase at 1 station.
文摘As an extended period of unusually dry weather conditions without sufficient rain, drought poses enormous risk on societies. Characterized by the absence of precipitation for long periods of time, often resulting in water scarcity, droughts are increasingly posing significant environmental challenges. Drought is therefore considered an important element in the management of water resources, especially groundwater resources during drought. This study therefore sought to investigate the rainfall variability and the frequency of drought for the period 1991 to 2020 in Bamako based on monthly rainfall data from Bamako-Senou gauge station. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) for 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timescales and the SPI for annual totals were used to characterized drought in the study area (Bamako). Univariate parametric probability distributions such as Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel type I and Pearson type III (P3) distributions were fitted with drought variables (severity and duration) for future planning and management. Non-parametric test such as Mann-Kendall trend test was also used to detect trend in annual rainfall data. The results showed that based on 12-month SPI, Bamako experienced two (02) extreme droughts one in July 2002 (SPI = -2.2165) and another in June 2015 (SPI = -2.0598 QUOTE SPI=-2.0598 ). Drought years represented 46.67% for the overall periods according to the SPI for annual totals. The result further indicated that based on the goodness of fit test, the P3 distribution represents the best fitted distribution to both drought severity and duration over Bamako. Bamako is expected to experience several severe severities with higher and shorter duration in the future. Severities with 1, 2, 6, and 10-month duration had return periods ranged from 2.4 to 3.8 years, while 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods had 18.51, 26.08, 33.25, 35.50, 42.38, and 49.14 severities, respectively, and durations associated to these severities were 19.8, 26.9, 33.5, 35.6, 42, and 48.2 months, respectively.
文摘Based on the data of annual average precipitation in Deyang area and its five stations (Mianzhu, Deyang, Zhongjiang, Shifang and Guanghan) from 1984 to 2013, the annual precipitation anomaly percentage was calculated, and then the flood and drought situation in Deyang area was graded to discuss the variation characteristics of droughts and floods in the past 30 years. The results show that the cycle of droughts and floods in Deyang was about 3-5 a. The precipitation anomaly percentage indicates that the climate in Deyang area of Sichuan tended to be dry slowly in the past 30 years, and Deyang gradually entered a dry and warm period.
文摘Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes and environment evolution,espectial-lyin the aspect of calamities,are made on the history documents of past 1500 years about Haiˊan region,Jiangsu Province.There existed two obvious flooding-drought frequently-occurring periods:one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 100 AD to 1200AD.The period of 1550 AD to1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD.The main characteristic of the calamity periods is that they occurred by turns,and sometimes,both drought and flooding occurred in the same year.The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the main reason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Haiˊan region.Research results also show that the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with the solar activity,and therefore,occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with the intensity of the solar activity.This hypothesis may need further study in the future.
基金This work was supported by Iran National Science Foundation(INSF)(grant no.96012844).
文摘Due to the lack of a uniform and accurate defi-nition of‘drought’,several indicators have been introduced based on different variables and methods,and the efficiency of each of these is determined according to their relationship with drought.The relationship between two drought indices,SPI(standardized precipitation index)and SPEI(standard-ized precipitation-evapotranspiration index)in different sea-sons was investigated using annual rings of 15 tree samples to determine the effect of drought on the growth of oriental beech(Fagus orientalis Lipsky)in the Hyrcanian forests of northern Iran.The different evapotranspiration calcula-tion methods were evaluated on SPEI efficiency based on Hargreaves-Samani,Thornthwaite,and Penman-Monteith methods using the step-by-step M5 decision tree regression method.The results show that SPEI based on the Penman-Monteith in a three-month time scale(spring)had similar temporal changes and a better relationship with annual tree rings(R^(2)=0.81)at a 0.05 significant level.Abrupt change and a decreasing trend in the time series of annual tree rings are similar to the variation in the SPEI based on the Penman-Monteith method.Factors affecting evapotranspiration,temperature,wind speed,and sunshine hours(used in the Penman-Monteith method),increased but precipitation decreased.Using non-linear modeling methods,SPEI based on Penman-Monteith best illustrated climate changes affecting tree growth.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFD1000400)Innovative Program for Graduate Student of Qingdao Agricultural University(Grant No.QNYCX22045).
文摘Drought(water shortage)can substantially limit the yield and economic value of rose plants(Rosa spp.).Here,we characterized the effect of exogenous calcium(Ca^(2+))on the antioxidant system and photosynthesis-related properties of rose under polyethylene glycol 6000(PEG6000)-induced drought stress.Chlorophyll levels,as well as leaf and root biomass,were significantly reduced by drought;drought also had a major effect on the enzymatic antioxidant system and increased concentrations of reactive oxygen species.Application of exogenous Ca^(2+)increased the net photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance of leaves,enhanced water-use efficiency,and increased the length and width of stomata following exposure to drought.Organ-specific physiological responses were observed under different concentrations of Ca^(2+).Application of 5 mmol·L^(-1)Ca^(2+)promoted photosynthesis and antioxidant activity in the leaves,and application of 10 mmol·L^(-1)Ca^(2+)promoted antioxidant activity in the roots.Application of exogenous Ca^(2+)greatly enhanced the phenotype and photosynthetic capacity of potted rose plants following exposure to drought stress.Overall,our findings indicate that the application of exogenous Ca^(2+)enhances the drought resistance of roses by promoting physiological adaptation and that it could be used to aid the cultivation of rose plants.
文摘The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.
文摘The impacts of climate change on the discharge regimes in New Brunswick (Canada) were analyzed, using artificial neural network models. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Model (CGCM3.1) under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios B1 and A2 defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate change fields (temperatures and precipitation) were downscaled using the delta change approach. Using the artificial neural network, future river discharge was predicted for selected hydrometric stations. Then, a frequency analysis was carried out using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function, where the parameters of the distribution were estimated using L-moments method. Depending on the scenario and the time slice used, the increase in low return floods was about 30% and about 15% for higher return floods. Low flows showed increases of about 10% for low return droughts and about 20% for higher return droughts. An important part of the design process using frequency analysis is the estimation of future change in floods or droughts under climate scenarios at a given site and for specific return periods. This was carried out through the development of Regional Climate Index (RCI), linking future floods and droughts to their frequencies under climate scenarios B1 and A2.
基金sponsored by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFA0606002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575087 and 41875082)the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘Ecosystems have increasingly been subject to the challenge of heavy drought under global warming. To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of drought on ecosystems, it is necessary to develop a drought index that can sensitively depict the response of vegetation to drought evolution at a biological time scale. For the ability of direct connection between climate and ecosystem by deficit of evapotranspiration, in the present study, a drought index was defined based on standardized evapotranspiration deficit (SEDI), according to the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration, to meet the need for highlighting drought impacts on ecological processes. Comparisons with traditional indices show that SEDI can reasonably detect droughts and climatic dry and wet transitions, especially at a monthly time scale, and can also regenerate long-term trends. Moreover, SEDI can more sensitively capture the biological changes of ecosystems in response to the dynamics of drought intensity, compared with the indices of precipitation and temperature. SEDI is more practical than the precipitation and temperature indices to highlight signals of biological effects in climate droughts. Hence, it has potential for use in assessments of climate change and its impact on ecosystems.
基金supported by the Global Center of Excellence Project for Dryland Science of the Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports,Science and Technology of Japan
文摘Agricultural drought is a type of natural disaster that seriously impacts food security.Because the relationships among short-term rainfall,soil moisture,and crop growth are complex,accurate identification of a drought situation is difficult.In this study,using a conceptual model based on the relationship between water deficit and crop yield reduction,we evaluated the drought process in a typical rainfed agricultural region,Hailar county in Inner Mongolia autonomous region,China.To quantify drought,we used the precipitation-based Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),the soil moisture-based Crop Moisture Index(CMI),as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI).Correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between dekad-scale drought indices during the growing season(May–September)and final yield,according to data collection from 2000 to 2010.The results show that crop yield has positive relationships with CMI from mid-June to mid-July and with the NDVI anomaly throughout July,but no correlation with SPI.Further analysis of the relationship between the two drought indices shows that the NDVI anomaly responds to CMI with a lag of 1 dekad,particularly in July.To examine the feasibility of employing these indices for monitoring the drought process at a dekad time scale,a detailed drought assessment was carried out for selected drought years.The results confirm that the soil moisture-based vegetation indices in the late vegetative to early reproductive growth stages can be used to detect agricultural drought in the study area.Therefore,the framework of the conceptual model developed for drought monitoring can be employed to support drought mitigation in the rainfed agricultural region of Northern China.
文摘The water deficit in arid and semi-arid regions is the primary limiting factor for the development of urban greenery and forestation. In addition, planting the species that consume low levels of water is useful in arid and semi-arid regions that have poor water management measures. Leaf water potential(Ψ) is a physiological parameter that can be used to identify drought resistance in various species. Indeed, Ψ is one of the most important properties of a plant that can be measured using a pressure chamber. Drought avoiding or drought resistant species have a lower Ψ than plants that use normal or high levels of water. To determine drought resistance of species that are suitable for afforestation in arid urban regions, we evaluated twenty woody species in the Isfahan City, central Iran. The experimental design was random split-split plots with five replications. The species were planted outdoor in plastic pots and then subjected to treatments that consisted of two soil types and five drip irrigation regimes. To evaluate the resistance of each species to drought, we used the Ψ and the number of survived plants to obtain the drought resistance index(DRI). Then, cluster analysis, dendrogram, and similarity index were used to group the species using DRI. Result indicates that the evaluated species were classified into five groups:(1) high water consuming species(DRI>–60 MPa);(2) above normal water consuming species(–60 MPa≥DRI>–90 MPa);(3) normal water consuming species(–90 MPa≥DRI>–120 MPa);(4) semi-drought resistant species(–120 MPa≥DRI>–150 MPa);and(5) drought resistant species(DRI≤–150 MPa). According to the DRI, Salix babylonica L., Populus alba L., and P. nigra L. are high water consuming species, Platanus orientalis L. and Albizia julibrissin Benth are normal water consuming species, and Quercus infectoria Oliv. and Olea europaea L. can be considered as drought resistant species.