A scalar dynamic conditional correlation model:Structure and estimation

The dynamic conditional correlation(DCC) model has been widely used for modeling the conditional correlation of multivariate time series by Engle(2002). However, the stationarity conditions have been established only recently and the asymptotic theory of parameter estimation for the DCC model has not yet to be fully discussed. In this paper, we propose an alternative model, namely the scalar dynamic conditional correlation(SDCC) model. Sufficient and easily-checked conditions for stationarity, geometric ergodicity, andβ-mixing with exponential-decay rates are provided. We then show the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator(QMLE) of the model parameters under regular conditions.The asymptotic results are illustrated by Monte Carlo experiments. As a real-data example, the proposed SDCC model is applied to analyzing the daily returns of the FSTE(financial times and stock exchange) 100 index and FSTE 100 futures. Our model improves the performance of the DCC model in the sense that the Li-Mc Leod statistic of the SDCC model is much smaller and the hedging efficiency is higher.

Volatility spillovers,structural breaks and uncertainty in technology sector markets

This study uses the dynamic conditional correlation to investigate how technology subsector stocks interact with financial assets in the face of economic and financial uncertainty.Our results suggest that structural breaks have diverse effects on financial asset connectedness and that the level of bond linkage increases when the trend breaks.We see a growing co-movement between the technology sector and major financial assets when uncertainty is considered.Overall,our findings indicate that the connectedness response varies depending on the type of uncertainty shock.

Cholesky GAS models for large time-varying covariance matrices

This paper develops a new class of multivariate models for large-dimensional time-varying covariance matrices,called Cholesky generalized autoregressive score(GAS)models,which are based on the Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix and assume that the parameters are score-driven.Specifically,two types of score-driven updates are considered:one is closer to the GARCH family,and the other is inspired by the stochastic volatility model.We demonstrate that the models can be estimated equation-wise and are computationally feasible for high-dimensional cases.Moreover,we design an equationwise dynamic model averaging or selection algorithm which simultaneously extracts model and parameter uncertainties,equipped with dynamically estimated model parameters.The simulation results illustrate the superiority of the proposed models.Finally,using a sizeable daily return dataset that includes 124 sectors in the Chinese stock market,two empirical studies with a small sample and a full sample are conducted to verify the advantages of our models.The full sample analysis by a dynamic correlation network documents significant structural changes in the Chinese stock market before and after COVID-19.

Multi-dimensional scenario forecast for generation of multiple wind farms

A novel multi-dimensional scenario forecast approach which can capture the dynamic temporal-spatial interdependence relation among the outputs of multiple wind farms is proposed.In the proposed approach,support vector machine(SVM)is applied for the spot forecast of wind power generation.The probability density function(PDF)of the SVM forecast error is predicted by sparse Bayesian learning(SBL),and the spot forecast result is corrected according to the error expectation obtained.The copula function is estimated using a Gaussian copula-based dynamic conditional correlation matrix regression(DCCMR)model to describe the correlation among the errors.And the multidimensional scenario is generated with respect to the estimated marginal distributions and the copula function.Test results on three adjacent wind farms illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.