Superiority of a Convolutional Neural Network Model over Dynamical Models in Predicting Central Pacific ENSO

The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices.The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural network(CNN)model with historical simulations from CMIP6 models.Compared with dynamical models,the CNN model has higher skill in predicting the SSTAs in the equatorial western-central Pacific,but not in the eastern Pacific.The CNN model can successfully capture the small-scale precursors in the initial SSTAs for the development of central Pacific ENSO to distinguish the spatial mode up to a lead time of seven months.A fusion model combining the predictions of the CNN model and the dynamical models achieves higher skill than each of them for both central and eastern Pacific ENSO.

Enhancing Deep Learning Soil Moisture Forecasting Models by Integrating Physics-based Models

Accurate soil moisture(SM)prediction is critical for understanding hydrological processes.Physics-based(PB)models exhibit large uncertainties in SM predictions arising from uncertain parameterizations and insufficient representation of land-surface processes.In addition to PB models,deep learning(DL)models have been widely used in SM predictions recently.However,few pure DL models have notably high success rates due to lacking physical information.Thus,we developed hybrid models to effectively integrate the outputs of PB models into DL models to improve SM predictions.To this end,we first developed a hybrid model based on the attention mechanism to take advantage of PB models at each forecast time scale(attention model).We further built an ensemble model that combined the advantages of different hybrid schemes(ensemble model).We utilized SM forecasts from the Global Forecast System to enhance the convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model for 1–16 days of SM predictions.The performances of the proposed hybrid models were investigated and compared with two existing hybrid models.The results showed that the attention model could leverage benefits of PB models and achieved the best predictability of drought events among the different hybrid models.Moreover,the ensemble model performed best among all hybrid models at all forecast time scales and different soil conditions.It is highlighted that the ensemble model outperformed the pure DL model over 79.5%of in situ stations for 16-day predictions.These findings suggest that our proposed hybrid models can adequately exploit the benefits of PB model outputs to aid DL models in making SM predictions.

Phenomenological Models of the Global Demographic Dynamics and Their Usage for Forecasting in 21st Century

A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 to 1958) could be described with incredibly high proximity by a hyperbolic function with the point of singularity on 13 November 2026. Thus, empirical regularity of the rise of the human population was established, which was marked by explosive demographic growth in the 20th century when during only one century it almost quadrupled: from 1.656 billion in 1900 to 6.144 billion in 2000. Nowadays, the world population has already overcome 7.8 billion people. Immediately after 1960, an active search for phenomenological models began to explain the mechanism of the hyperbolic population growth and the following demographic transition designed to stabilize its population. A significant role in explaining the mechanism of the hyperbolic growth of the world population was played by S. Kuznets (1960) and E. Boserup (1965), who found out that the rates of technological progress historically increased in proportion to the Earth’s population. It meant that the growth of the population led to raising the level of life-supporting technologies, and the latter in its turn enlarged the carrying capacity of the Earth, making it possible for the world population to expand. Proceeding from the information imperative, we have developed the model of the demographic dynamics for the 21st century for the first time. The model shows that with the development and spread of Intelligent Machines (IM), the number of the world population reaching a certain maximum will then irreversibly decline. Human depopulation will largely touch upon the most developed countries, where IM is used intensively nowadays. Until a certain moment in time, this depopulation in developed countries will be compensated by the explosive growth of the population in African countries located south of the Sahara. Calculations in our model reveal that the peak of the human population of 8.52 billion people will be reached in 2050, then it will irreversibly go down to 7.9 billion people by 2100, if developed countries do not take timely effective measures to overcome the process of information depopulation.

Dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network for COVID-19 forecasting

Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.

Multimodel Ensemble Forecast of Global Horizontal Irradiance at PV Power Stations Based on Dynamic Variable Weight

In the present study,multimodel ensemble forecast experiments of the global horizontal irradiance(GHI)were conducted using the dynamic variable weight technique.The study was based on the forecasts of four numerical models,namely,the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Prediction System,the Mesoscale Weather Numerical Prediction System of China Meteorological Administration,the China Meteorological Administration Regional Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System-Guangdong,and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model-Solar,and observational data from four photovoltaic(PV)power stations in Yangjiang City,Guangdong Province.The results show that compared with those of the monthly optimal numerical model forecasts,the dynamic variable weight-based ensemble forecasts exhibited 0.97%-15.96%smaller values of the mean absolute error and 3.31%-18.40%lower values of the root mean square error(RMSE).However,the increase in the correlation coefficient was not obvious.Specifically,the multimodel ensemble mainly improved the performance of GHI forecasts below 700 W m^(-2),particularly below 400 W m^(-2),with RMSE reductions as high as 7.56%-28.28%.In contrast,the RMSE increased at GHI levels above 700 W m^(-2).As for the key period of PV power station output(02:00-07:00),the accuracy of GHI forecasts could be improved by the multimodel ensemble:the multimodel ensemble could effectively decrease the daily maximum absolute error(AE max)of GHI forecasts.Moreover,with increasing forecasting difficulty under cloudy conditions,the multimodel ensemble,which yields data closer to the actual observations,could simulate GHI fluctuations more accurately.

Method of Dynamic VaR and CVaR Risk Measures Forecasting for Long Range Dependent Time Series on the Base of the Heteroscedastic Model

The paper proposes a new method of dynamic VaR and CVaR risk measures forecasting. The method is designed for obtaining the forecast estimates of risk measures for volatile time series with long range dependence. The method is based on the heteroskedastic time series model. The FIGARCH model is used for volatility modeling and forecasting. The model is reduced to the AR model of infinite order. The reduced system of Yule-Walker equations is solved to find the autoregression coefficients. The regression equation for the autocorrelation function based on the definition of a long-range dependence is used to get the autocorrelation estimates. An optimization procedure is proposed to specify the estimates of autocorrelation coefficients. The procedure for obtaining of the forecast values of dynamic risk measures VaR and CVaR is formalized as a multi-step algorithm. The algorithm includes the following steps: autoregression forecasting, innovation highlighting, obtaining of the assessments for static risk measures for residuals of the model, forming of the final forecast using the proposed formulas, quality analysis of the results. The proposed method is applied to the time series of the index of the Tokyo stock exchange. The quality analysis using various tests is conducted and confirmed the high quality of the obtained estimates.

Dynamics models of soil organic carbon

As the largest pool of terrestrial organic carbon, soils interact strongly with atmosphere composition, climate, and land change. Soil organic carbon dynamics in ecosystem plays a great role in global carbon cycle and global change. With development of mathematical models that simulate changes in soil organic carbon, there have been considerable advances in understanding soil organic carbon dynamics. This paper mainly reviewed the composition of soil organic matter and its influenced factors, and recommended some soil organic matter models worldwide. Based on the analyses of the developed results at home and abroad, it is suggested that future soil organic matter models should be developed toward based-process models, and not always empirical ones. The models are able to reveal their interaction between soil carbon systems, climate and land cover by technique and methods of GIS (Geographical Information System) and RS (Remote Sensing). These models should be developed at a global scale, in dynamically describing the spatial and temporal changes of soil organic matter cycle. Meanwhile, the further researches on models should be strengthen for providing theory basis and foundation in making policy of green house gas emission in China.

Dynamic Ensemble Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Model for PM2.5

In forecasting real time environmental factors,large data is needed to analyse the pattern behind the data values.Air pollution is a major threat towards developing countries and it is proliferating every year.Many methods in time ser-ies prediction and deep learning models to estimate the severity of air pollution.Each independent variable contributing towards pollution is necessary to analyse the trend behind the air pollution in that particular locality.This approach selects multivariate time series and coalesce a real time updatable autoregressive model to forecast Particulate matter(PM)PM2.5.To perform experimental analysis the data from the Central Pollution Control Board(CPCB)is used.Prediction is car-ried out for Chennai with seven locations and estimated PM’s using the weighted ensemble method.Proposed method for air pollution prediction unveiled effective and moored performance in long term prediction.Dynamic budge with high weighted k-models are used simultaneously and devising an ensemble helps to achieve stable forecasting.Computational time of ensemble decreases with paral-lel processing in each sub model.Weighted ensemble model shows high perfor-mance in long term prediction when compared to the traditional time series models like Vector Auto-Regression(VAR),Autoregressive Integrated with Mov-ing Average(ARIMA),Autoregressive Moving Average with Extended terms(ARMEX).Evaluation metrics like Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE)and the time to achieve the time series are compared.

Mathematical Models of Tire-Longitudinal Road Adhesion and Their Use in the Study of Road Vehicle Dynamics

Mathematical models of tire-longitudinal road adhesion for use in the study of road vehicle dynamics are set up so as to express the relations of longitudinal adhesion coefficients with the slip ratio. They perfect the Pacejka's models in practical use by taking into account the influences of all essential parameters such as road surface condition. vehicle velocity. slip angle. vertical load and slip ratio on the longitudinal adhesion coefficients. The new models are more comprehensive more concise. simpler and more convenient in application in all kinds of simulations of car dynamics in various sorts of braking modes.

Mathematical Models of Tire-Lateral Road Adhesion for Use in Road Vehicle Dynamics Studies

Mathematical models of tire-lateral mad adhesion for use in mad vehicle dynamics studies are set up to express the relations of adhesion coefficients with slip ratio in lateral direction.The models of tire-lateral mad adhesion revolutionize the Pacejka's model in concept and therefore make it possible for applications in vehicle dynamics studies by the expression of lateral adhesion coefficient as a function of wheel slip ratio,instead of the wheel slip angle,taking into account in the mean time the influences of mad surface condition, vehicle velocity,vertical load,tire slip angle,and wheel camber angle.

Time-domain dynamic constitutive model suitable for mucky soil site seismic response

Soil nonlinear behavior displays noticeable effects on the site seismic response.This study proposes a new functional expression of the skeleton curve to replace the hyperbolic skeleton curve.By integrating shear modulus and combining the dynamic skeleton curve and the damping degradation coefficient,the constitutive equation of the logarithmic dynamic skeleton can be obtained,which considers the damping effect in a soil dynamics problem.Based on the finite difference method and the multi-transmitting boundary condition,a 1D site seismic response analysis program called Soilresp1D has been developed herein and used to analyze the time-domain seismic response in three types of sites.At the same time,this study also provides numerical simulation results based on the hyperbolic constitutive model and the equivalent linear method.The results verify the rationality of the new soil dynamic constitutive model.It can analyze the mucky soil site nonlinear seismic response,reflecting the deformation characteristics and damping effect of the silty soil.The hysteresis loop area is more extensive,and the residual strain is evident.

Hybrid Dynamic Variables-Dependent Event-Triggered Fuzzy Model Predictive Control

This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.

Adaptive Optimal Discrete-Time Output-Feedback Using an Internal Model Principle and Adaptive Dynamic Programming

In order to address the output feedback issue for linear discrete-time systems, this work suggests a brand-new adaptive dynamic programming(ADP) technique based on the internal model principle(IMP). The proposed method, termed as IMP-ADP, does not require complete state feedback-merely the measurement of input and output data. More specifically, based on the IMP, the output control problem can first be converted into a stabilization problem. We then design an observer to reproduce the full state of the system by measuring the inputs and outputs. Moreover, this technique includes both a policy iteration algorithm and a value iteration algorithm to determine the optimal feedback gain without using a dynamic system model. It is important that with this concept one does not need to solve the regulator equation. Finally, this control method was tested on an inverter system of grid-connected LCLs to demonstrate that the proposed method provides the desired performance in terms of both tracking and disturbance rejection.

Dynamic Modeling and Experimental Verification of an RPR Type Compliant Paralle Mechanism with Low Orders

Efficiency of calculating a dynamic response is an important point of the compliant mechanism for posture adjustment.Dynamic modeling with low orders of a 2R1T compliant parallel mechanism is studied in the paper.The mechanism with two out-of-plane rotational and one lifting degrees of freedom(DoFs)plays an important role in posture adjustment.Based on elastic beam theory,the stiffness matrix and mass matrix of the beam element are established where the moment of inertia is considered.To improve solving efficiency,a dynamic model with low orders of the mechanism is established based on a modified modal synthesis method.Firstly,each branch of the RPR type mechanism is divided into a substructure.Subsequently,a set of hypothetical modes of each substructure is obtained based on the C-B method.Finally,dynamic equation of the whole mechanism is established by the substructure assembly.A dynamic experiment is conducted to verify the dynamic characteristics of the compliant mechanism.

Dynamics Modeling and Parameter Identification for a Coupled-Drive Dual-Arm Nursing Robot

A dual-arm nursing robot can gently lift patients and transfer them between a bed and a wheelchair.With its lightweight design,high load-bearing capacity,and smooth surface,the coupled-drive joint is particularly well suited for these robots.However,the coupled nature of the joint disrupts the direct linear relationship between the input and output torques,posing challenges for dynamic modeling and practical applications.This study investigated the transmission mechanism of this joint and employed the Lagrangian method to construct a dynamic model of its internal dynamics.Building on this foundation,the Newton-Euler method was used to develop a dynamic model for the entire robotic arm.A continuously differentiable friction model was incorporated to reduce the vibrations caused by speed transitions to zero.An experimental method was designed to compensate for gravity,inertia,and modeling errors to identify the parameters of the friction model.This method establishes a mapping relationship between the friction force and motor current.In addition,a Fourier series-based excitation trajectory was developed to facilitate the identification of the dynamic model parameters of the robotic arm.Trajectory tracking experiments were conducted during the experimental validation phase,demonstrating the high accuracy of the dynamic model and the parameter identification method for the robotic arm.This study presents a dynamic modeling and parameter identification method for coupled-drive joint robotic arms,thereby establishing a foundation for motion control in humanoid nursing robots.

Phase diagram and quench dynamics of a periodically drivenHaldane model

We investigate a periodically driven Haldane model subjected to a two-stage driving scheme in the form of a step function.By using the Floquet theory,we obtain the topological phase diagram of the system.We also find that anomalous Floquet topological phases exist in the system.Focusing on examining the quench dynamics among topological phases,we analyze the site distribution of the 0-mode and p-mode edge states in long-period evolution after a quench.The results demonstrate that,under certain conditions,the site distribution of the 0-mode can be confined at the edge even in long-period evolution.Additionally,both the 0-mode and p-mode can recover and become confined at the edge in long-period evolution when the post-quench parameters(T,M_(2) /M_(1))in the phase diagram cross away from the phase boundary (M_(2)/ M_(1))=(6√3t2)/ M_(1)−1.Furthermore,we conclude that whether the edge state is confined at the edge in the long-period evolution after a quench depends on the similarity of the edge states before and after the quench.Our findings reveal some new characteristics of quench dynamics in a periodically driven system.

A semi-analytical pressure and rate transient analysis model for inner boundary and propped fractures exhibiting dynamic behavior under long-term production conditions

The loss of hydrocarbon production caused by the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures under long-term production conditions has been widely reported in recent studies.However,the quantitative relationships for the variations of the inner boundary and propped fractures have not been determined and incorporated in the semi-analytical models for the pressure and rate transient analysis.This work focuses on describing the variations of the inner boundary and propped fractures and capturing the typical characteristics from the pressure transient curves.A generalized semi-analytical model was developed to characterize the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures under long-term production conditions.The pressure-dependent length shrinkage coefficients,which quantify the length changes of the inner zone and propped fractures,are modified and incorporated into this multi-zone semi-analytical model.With simultaneous numerical iterations and numerical inversions in Laplace and real-time space,the transient solutions to pressure and rate behavior are determined in just a few seconds.The dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures on transient pressure curves is divided into five periods:fracture bilinear flow(FR1),dynamic PFs flow(FR2),inner-area linear flow(FR3),dynamic inner boundary flow(FR4),and outer-area dominated linear flow(FR5).The early hump during FR2 period and a positive upward shift during FR4period are captured on the log-log pressure transient curves,reflecting the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures during the long-term production period.The transient pressure behavior will exhibit greater positive upward trend and the flow rate will be lower with the shrinkage of the inner boundary.The pressure derivative curve will be upward earlier as the inner boundary shrinks more rapidly.The lower permeability caused by the closure of un-propped fractures in the inner zone results in greater upward in pressure derivative curves.If the permeability loss for the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary caused by the closure of un-propped fractures is neglected,the flow rate will be overestimated in the later production period.

Characterization and identification towards dynamic-based electrical modeling of lithium-ion batteries

Lithium-ion batteries are widely recognized as a crucial enabling technology for the advancement of electric vehicles and energy storage systems in the grid.The design of battery state estimation and control algorithms in battery management systems is usually based on battery models,which interpret crucial battery dynamics through the utilization of mathematical functions.Therefore,the investigation of battery dynamics with the purpose of battery system identification has garnered considerable attention in the realm of battery research.Characterization methods in terms of linear and nonlinear response of lithium-ion batteries have emerged as a prominent area of study in this field.This review has undertaken an analysis and discussion of characterization methods,with a particular focus on the motivation of battery system identification.Specifically,this work encompasses the incorporation of frequency domain nonlinear characterization methods and dynamics-based battery electrical models.The aim of this study is to establish a connection between the characterization and identification of battery systems for researchers and engineers specialized in the field of batteries,with the intention of promoting the advancement of efficient battery technology for real-world applications.

Dynamic response of mountain tunnel,bridge,and embankment along the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor to active fault based on model tests

The Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor is prone to numerous active faults and frequent strong earthquakes.While extensive studies have individually explored the effect of active faults and strong earthquakes on different engineering structures,their combined effect remains unclear.This research employed multiple physical model tests to investigate the dynamic response of various engineering structures,including tunnels,bridges,and embankments,under the simultaneous influence of cumulative earthquakes and stick-slip misalignment of an active fault.The prototype selected for this study was the Kanding No.2 tunnel,which crosses the Yunongxi fault zone within the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor.The results demonstrated that the tunnel,bridge,and embankment exhibited amplification in response to the input seismic wave,with the amplification effect gradually decreasing as the input peak ground acceleration(PGA)increased.The PGAs of different engineering structures were weakened by the fault rupture zone.Nevertheless,the misalignment of the active fault may decrease the overall stiffness of the engineering structure,leading to more severe damage,with a small contribution from seismic vibration.Additionally,the seismic vibration effect might be enlarged with the height of the engineering structure,and the tunnel is supposed to have a smaller PGA and lower dynamic earth pressure compared to bridges and embankments in strong earthquake zones crossing active faults.The findings contribute valuable insights for evaluating the dynamic response of various engineering structures crossing an active fault and provide an experimental reference for secure engineering design in the challenging conditions of the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor.

Dynamics modeling and optimal control for multi-information diffusion in Social Internet of Things

As an ingenious convergence between the Internet of Things and social networks,the Social Internet of Things(SIoT)can provide effective and intelligent information services and has become one of the main platforms for people to spread and share information.Nevertheless,SIoT is characterized by high openness and autonomy,multiple kinds of information can spread rapidly,freely and cooperatively in SIoT,which makes it challenging to accurately reveal the characteristics of the information diffusion process and effectively control its diffusion.To this end,with the aim of exploring multi-information cooperative diffusion processes in SIoT,we first develop a dynamics model for multi-information cooperative diffusion based on the system dynamics theory in this paper.Subsequently,the characteristics and laws of the dynamical evolution process of multi-information cooperative diffusion are theoretically investigated,and the diffusion trend is predicted.On this basis,to further control the multi-information cooperative diffusion process efficiently,we propose two control strategies for information diffusion with control objectives,develop an optimal control system for the multi-information cooperative diffusion process,and propose the corresponding optimal control method.The optimal solution distribution of the control strategy satisfying the control system constraints and the control budget constraints is solved using the optimal control theory.Finally,extensive simulation experiments based on real dataset from Twitter validate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model,strategy and method.