DYNAMIC PREDICION OF FOREST FUEL LOADS BY GREY VERHULST MODEL

The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor- shrub, herbs’ grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflamma ble fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammabIe fuel loads in phododendron-- Larix gmelinii forest and in the herb- - Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm2and 10.473 t/hm2 respectively’ by 13 years later. and that was 12.297 t/hm 2 in herb--Larix gmeliniiforest by 7 years later.. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated.

A system dynamics model for billion trees tsunami afforestation project of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan:Model application to afforestation activities

As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present study is designed to build a Systems'model by incorporating major activities of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project(BTTAP)with special focus on afforestation activities to estimate the growth in forest area of KP.Availability of complete dataset was a challenge.To fix the model,the raw data taken from the project office has been utilized.Planning Commission Form 1-Phase I&II helped us with additional information.We relied on the data available for one and half period of the project as rest of the data is subject to the completion of the project.Our results show that the project target to enhance area under forest differs from the target to afforest area under the project.The system dynamics'model projection shows that the forest area of KP would be 23.59 million hectares at the end of the BTTA project,thus having an increase of 3.29%instead of 2%that has been initially proposed.However,the results show that the progress to meet the target in some afforestation classes is slow as compared to other categories.Farm forestry,plantation on communal lands and owners'plantation need special focus of the authority.Deforestation would affect 0.02 million hectares area of the project.The model under study may be used as a reference model that can be replicated to other areas where billion tree campaigns are going on.

Unsuspected implications arising from assumptions in simulations: insights from recasting a forest growth model in system dynamics

Background:Familiarity with a simulation platform can seduce modellers into accepting untested assumptions for convenience of implementation.These assumptions may have consequences greater than commonly suspected,and it is important that modellers remain mindful of assumptions and remain diligent with sensitivity testing.Methods:Familiarity with a technique can lead to complacency,and alternative approaches and software can reveal untested assumptions.Visual modelling environments based on system dynamics may help to make critical assumptions more evident by offering an accessible visual overview and empowering a focus on representational rather than computational efficiency.This capacity is illustrated using a cohort-based forest growth model developed for mixed species forest.Results:The alternative model implementation revealed that untested assumptions in the original model could have substantial influence on simulated outcomes.Conclusions:An important implication is that modellers should remain conscious of all assumptions,consider alternative implementations that reveal assumptions more clearly,and conduct sensitivity tests to inform decisions.

DYNAMIC MODELS OF MOISTURE CONTENT OF FOREST FUELS

The fuel moisture content is an integral part of any workable fire danger-rating system. This paper presented dynamic models for estimating 1-h, 10-h. 100-h and 1000-h timelag fuels, that were developed by multiple regression and stepwise variable selection of statistics. The variables include both meteorological factors and moisture contents observed prior to the day correspondingly. The analysis revealed that the fuel moisture content are correlated positively with the precipitation of 24 hours prior to the observation time, and negatiyely with air temperature at observing height of 1.5 meter in forest.

Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China

There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System （DLS） model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000-2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and makJng out the planning for forestry production Jn the Northeast China region.

Succession Features and Dynamic Simulation of Subalpine Forest in the Gongga Mountain, China

The Gongga Mountain of eastern Tibet Plateau is a representative of the alpine regions with high peaks and deep valleys. Climate change over the last thousand years has controlled the dynamics of glacier and debris flow occurrence, which resulted in substantial changes in the mountainous environment. The authors surveyed the community structure of primary forests in Gongga Mountain and forest successign processes in woodland plots. The changing features in the subalpine environment are discussed in this paper. Tree species and sizes between the glacier shrinking areas and debris flow fans in Hailuogou Valley are compared. The pioneer species that settle in debris flow fans and the glacier shrinking areas are Salix spp. and Populus purdomii. Abies fabri and Picea brachytyla are the climax tree species. The succession process of primary vegetation in Hailuogou (2700 ～ 3200 m) can be divided into four stages:

Dynamics of dominant tree species in a forest ecotone on the northern slop of Changbai Mountain

在在 broad-leaved/Korean 松( Pinus koraiensis )之间的森林交错群落的优势木种类的比赛和动力学在 Changbai 山的混交林和云杉冷杉木森林(也已知的同样黑暗的针叶树森林)，在东北中国的吉林省被使用 Lotka-Volterra 学习模型，基于从有为每一个的 20 m x90 m 的区域的 28 个样品阴谋的数据。结果证明在自然状况下面，社区的区别跟随了二条指令：一个人将是云杉(Picea jezoensis 和很少 P。koraiensis ) 并且冷杉木(Abiesnephrolepis )co 主导的针叶树森林，并且在平衡，冷杉木绝对是优势的(77.1% 相对优势(RD )) ；其它将是针叶树和阔叶的混交林，并且在平衡，阔叶的树种类是在 broad-leaved/Korean 松混交林的 50% RD 并且 66% RD 在阔叶并且云杉冷杉木混交林。学习证明两 broad-leaved/Korean 松混交林和黑暗针叶树森林是演替顶极群落，交错群落有过渡特征，并且森林社区的多样化建议继任的方向被本地产地影响。

Drivers of spatial structure in thinned forests

Background:As is widely known,an increasing number of forest areas were managed to preserve and enhance the health of forest ecosystems.However,previous research on forest management has often overlooked the importance of structure-based.Aims:Our objectives were to define the direction of structure-based forest management.Subsequently,we investigated the relationships between forest structure and the regeneration,growth,and mortality of trees under different thinning treatments.Ultimately,the drivers of forest structural change were explored.Methods:On the basis of 92 sites selected from northeastern China,with different recovery time (from 1 to 15years) and different thinning intensities (0–59.9%) since the last thinning.Principal component analysis (PCA)identified relationships among factors determining forest spatial structure.The structural equation model (SEM)was used to analyze the driving factors behind the changes in forest spatial structure after thinning.Results:Light thinning (0–20%trees removed) promoted forest regeneration,and heavy thinning (over 35% of trees removed) facilitated forest growth.However,only moderate thinning (20%–35%trees removed) created a reasonable spatial structure.While dead trees were clustered,and they were hardly affected by thinning intensity.Additionally,thinning intensity,recovery time,and altitude indirectly improve the spatial structure of the forest by influencing diameter at breast height (DBH) and canopy area.Conclusion:Creating larger DBH and canopy area through thinning will promote the formation of complex forest structures,which cultivates healthy and stable forests.

The Mathematical Model of Short-Term Forest Fire Spread

In this paper, we establish a mathematical model of the forest fire spread process based on a partial differential equation. We describe the distribution of time field and velocity field in the whole two-dimensional space by vector field theory. And we obtain a continuous algorithm to predict the dynamic behavior of forest fire spread in a short time. We use the algorithm to interpolate the fire boundary by cubic non-uniform rational B-spline closed curve. The fire boundary curve at any time can be simulated by solving the Eikonal equation. The model is tested in theory and in practice. The results show that the model has good accuracy and stability, and it’s compatible with most of the existing models, such as the elliptic model and the cellular automata model.

Machine learning models for stroke detection by observing the eye-movement features under five-color visual stimuli in traditional Chinese medicine

Objective:To develop a novel diagnostic modality to identify and diagnose stroke in daily life scenarios for improving the therapeutic effects and prognoses of patients.Methods:In this study,16 stroke patients and 24 age-matched healthy participants as controls were recruited for comparative analysis.Leveraging a portable eye-tracking device and integrating traditional Chinese medicine theory with modern color psychology principles,we recorded the eye movement signals and calculated eye movement features.Meanwhile,the stroke recognition models based on eye movement features were further trained by using random forest(RF),k-nearest neighbors(KNN),decision tree(DT),gradient boosting classifier(GBC),XGBoost,and CatBoost.Results:The stroke group and the healthy group showed significant differences in some eye movement features(P<.05).The models trained based on eye movement characteristics had good performances in recognizing stroke individuals,with accuracies ranging from 77.40%to 88.45%.Under the red stimulus,the eye movement model trained by RF became the best machine learning model with a recall of 84.65%,a precision of 86.48%,a F1 score of 85.47%.Among the six algorithms,RF and CatBoost performed better in classification.Conclusion:This study pioneers the application of traditional Chinese medicine's five-color stimuli to visual observation tasks.On the basis of the combined design,the eye-movement models can accurately identify stroke,and the developed high-performance models may be used in daily life scenarios.

长汀生态恢复区不同混交比例针阔混交林内马尾松种群动态及其驱动机制

[目的]分析我国亚热带生态恢复典型先锋物种马尾松在不同混交比例针阔混交林内的种群动态及其驱动机制,为深入理解亚热带植被重建与恢复进程奠定基础。[方法]基于福建省长汀县生态恢复区4块不同混交比例针阔混交林内马尾松种群调查数据,构建积分投影模型并运用弹性分析、生命表响应试验等方法,探究混交林内马尾松种群动态及其驱动机制。[结果]针阔混交林内马尾松种群整体表现为持续衰退状态(种群增长率λ<1),随着阔叶树种在林分中相对多度增加,马尾松个体平均存活率和平均繁殖率以及λ均呈先上升后下降趋势。弹性分析表明,个体存活对混交林内马尾松种群增长最重要,小径级个体正生长利于种群发展,繁殖对种群增长的影响较为有限。随着阔叶树种相对多度增加,对马尾松种群增长最重要的个体逐渐由幼苗转变为成年树,种群维持风险逐渐增大。生命表响应试验显示,个体生长差异是不同混交林间马尾松种群增长差异的主要来源。[结论]随着阔叶树种混交比例上升,马尾松种群内幼苗和幼年树的比例和重要性持续降低,成年树的比例和重要性不断增加,不同生活史阶段个体生命率的差异化响应驱动马尾松种群动态变化。

林区智能作业车臂架动力学建模及优化设计

针对林区作业环境复杂等问题,设计一款面向林区作业的林区智能作业车。建立作业车臂架系统的运动学和动力学模型并进行三维软件仿真和优化设计。首先,采用解析几何法与拉格朗日动力学方程结合,建立臂架系统的动力学模型。其次,利用软件NX1899的机构动力学仿真工具Simcenter 3D Motion对臂架系统进行分析,得到臂架系统各油缸驱动力和行程随时间变化曲线。最后,基于响应面BBD(Box-Behnken design)设计响应面试验,对变幅油缸前后两铰点位置进行优化。结果表明,在油缸行程仅增加0.000 04%情况下,油缸驱动力减小2.33%,BBD所提供的试验设计可靠。因此,该动力学模型可为油缸选型和油缸受力优化提供理论依据。

Forest-CEW:一个模拟森林“能-碳-水”过程的生态系统模型

过程模型是探究生态系统内部运行机制的一个重要手段,但在这方面,我国目前所开展的原创性工作还比较少,鉴此,本文介绍了一个自主研发的、复杂程度适中、用户易于使用、结构合理、过程机理明确、接口丰富的生态系统过程模型,同时将其命名为Forest-CEW.该模型借鉴了陆面过程模式的框架,对现有的知识进行了整合,而且它还注重对环境生物物理过程和生理过程的刻画,具有友好的用户界面设计.为了验证模型的模拟效果,本文还将其模拟的结果与日本苫小牧站的实测数据进行了对比与分析,结果表明:其模拟效果非常理想,实测和模拟结果的线性回归斜率接近1. 0,决定系数达到了0. 88,并且其可以成功地再现生态系统的内部主要过程.此外,通过在实践中的不断改进,该模型还有望给业界提供更多有益的信息,从而使人们对生态系统的内部过程有更深入的理解.

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

Gap models across micro-to mega-scales of time and space:examples of Tansley’s ecosystem concept

Background:Gap models are individual-based models for forests.They simulate dynamic multispecies assemblages over multiple tree-generations and predict forest responses to altered environmental conditions.Their development emphases designation of the significant biological and ecological processes at appropriate time/space scales.Conceptually,they are with consistent with A.G.Tansley’s original definition of"the ecosystem".Results:An example microscale application inspects feedbacks among terrestrial vegetation change,air-quality changes from the vegetation’s release of volatile organic compounds(VOC),and climate change effects on ecosystem production of VOC’s.Gap models can allocate canopy photosynthate to the individual trees whose leaves form the vertical leaf-area profiles.VOC release depends strongly on leaf physiology by species of these trees.Leaf-level VOC emissions increase with climate-warming.Species composition change lowers the abundance of VOC-emitting taxa.In interactions among ecosystem functions and biosphere/atmosphere exchanges,community composition responses can outweigh physiological responses.This contradicts previous studies that emphasize the warming-induced impacts on leaf function.As a mesoscale example,the changes in climate(warming)on forests including pest-insect dynamics demonstrates changes on the both the tree and the insect populations.This is but one of many cases that involve using a gap model to simulate changes in spatial units typical of sampling plots and scaling these to landscape and regional levels.As this is the typical application scale for gap models,other examples are identified.The insect/climatechange can be scaled to regional consequences by simulating survey plots across a continental or subcontinental zone.Forest inventories at these scales are often conducted using independent survey plots distributed across a region.Model construction that mimics this sample design avoids the difficulties in modelling spatial interactions,but we also discuss simulation at these scales with contagion effects.Conclusions:At the global-scale,successful simulations to date have used functional types of plants,rather than tree species.In a final application,the fine-scale predictions of a gap model are compared with data from micrometeorological eddy-covariance towers and then scaled-up to produce maps of global patterns of evapotranspiration,net primary production,gross primary production and respiration.New active-remote-sensing instruments provide opportunities to test these global predictions.

New Development in Study of the Faustmann Optimal Forest Harvesting

Chinese forest resources have become very scarce in the face of rapid economic growth demand, while the reform of collective forest right system is in full swing across the country. It will directly affect the regeneration level of forest resources and the diverse ecological value functions. In this article, the mainstream model paradigm of forest economics, that is, the basic framework of the Faustmann model and its evolution process are made in a more detailed explanation, especially the extended model including considered silvicultural effort, tax subsidies, risk dynamic management, and forest regeneration factors are made in more detailed explanations. This article concludes with the future further research directions of forest economics, including the design of dynamic models that includes considered uneven-aged forest management, non-timber goods and services, dynamic forest models. The research reflects the general trend of interdisciplinary and cross-border.

基于退耕还林工程的生态环境质量动态变化研究——以云南兰坪县为例

2014年云南省怒江傈僳族自治州(简称怒江州)正式启动新一轮退耕还林还草工程,为探讨该轮退耕还林工程对怒江州兰坪白族普米族自治县(简称兰坪县)生态环境质量的影响,选择退耕还林工程实施前(2013年)、实施中(2017年)和实施末期(2020年)3个时间,基于遥感生态指数模型,选取绿度、干度、湿度和热度4个指标,运用主成分分析法对兰坪县2013—2020年的生态环境质量动态变化进行研究。结果表明:1)2013—2020年兰坪县生态环境质量处于上升趋势,中排乡、石登乡和河西乡的生态环境质量改善较为明显;2)2013—2020年,75%以上区域的生态环境质量等级保持不变,其他区域的生态环境质量等级呈小幅度变化,生态环境质量变好的区域面积要大于生态环境质量变差的区域面积;3)退耕还林斑块的生态环境质量提升程度要高于退耕还林2 km缓冲区以及整个研究区的生态环境质量提高程度,退耕还林工程对生态环境质量的改善具有显著影响,可通过进一步推进退耕还林工程来改善兰坪县的生态环境质量;4)研究区潜在的退耕区主要分布在中排乡、石登乡、营盘镇和兔峨乡4个乡镇,其可作为进一步退耕还林的重点区域。

林木果球采收机械臂动力学参数辨识及补偿

由于林木果球采收机械臂的工作场景复杂,对机械臂控制精准度的要求越来越高,研究机械臂动力学模型对其控制精度的影响非常重要。为提升机械臂的控制精度,提出一种在优化后的激励轨迹下基于最小二乘法和高斯混合模型(GMM)的3次迭代整体参数辨识方法。该方法以6自由度机械臂构型为例,通过建立动力学模型及QR(正交三角)分解得到最小参数集;通过轨迹优化算法得到激励轨迹的优化参数,进而得到优化的激励轨迹;得到轨迹后,依次对关节力矩采用迭代加权最小二乘法进行理论辨识,构建区分关节高、低速的非线性模型对机械臂非线性摩擦力进行拟合,用GMM算法来补偿无法精确建模的不确定力矩分量。在COMAN R5机械臂上进行试验测试,结果表明,所提出的轨迹参数优化方法将条件数从329减少到193,力矩残差的平均均方根从9.53降低到6.14,从而证明激励轨迹和辨识方案的可行性和有效性。

东北针阔混交林生物量动态过程及稳定性研究

[目的]探讨东北地区混交林地上生物量动态过程驱动因子,以准确理解森林服务和功能。[方法]基于东北金沟岭林场的110块固定样地,描述了1987—2017年的森林动态变化过程。利用分段结构方程模型来评估森林结构、气候、地形和多样性对地上生物量的森林动态过程(生长、进界和死亡)的影响,并进一步探究生物量动态过程对稳定性的作用。[结果]表明,生物量生长量受到林分断面积(β=0.562)、海拔(β=0.853)和年均温(β=0.820)的正向影响,与胸径基尼系数呈负相关(β=-0.274)。生物量进界增长量随海拔(β=0.913)、年均温(β=0.944)的增加而增加,与胸径变异系数呈显著负相关(β=-0.233)。生物量死亡损失量只与林分断面积(β=0.467)呈显著正相关。另外,本研究还发现,死亡是影响森林生物量稳定性的最重要因素。[结论]总体来看,海拔和年均温是林分生物量变化的重要驱动因素,以后要更加关注死亡树木的情况,从而更好地进行森林经营。