Morphodynamic signatures derived from daily surface elevation dynamics can explain the morphodynamic development of tidal flats

Understanding the sensitivity of tidal flats to environmental changes is challenging.Currently,most studies rely on process-based models to systematically explain the morphodynamic evolution of tidal flats.In this study,we proposed an alternative empirical approach to explore tidal flat dynamics using statistical indices based on long-term time series of daily surface elevation development.Surface elevation dynamic(SED)indices focus on the magnitude and period of surface elevation changes,while morphodynamic signature(MDS)indices relate sediment dynamics to environmental drivers.The statistical analyses were applied to an intervention site in the Netherlands to determine the effect of recently constructed groynes on the tidal flat.Using these analyses,we were able to(1)detect a reduction in the daily SED and(2)determine that the changes in the daily SED were predominantly caused by the reduction in wave impact between the groynes rather than the reduction in tidal currents.Overall,the presented results showed that the combination of novel statistical indices provides new insights into the trajectories of tidal flats,ecosystem functioning,and sensitivity to physical drivers(wind and tides).Finally,we suggested how the SED and MDS indices may help to explore the future trajectories and climate resilience of intertidal habitats.

Long-term Regional Dynamic Sea Level Changes from CMIP6 Projections

Anthropogenic climate forcing will cause the global mean sea level to rise over the 21st century.However,regional sea level is expected to vary across ocean basins,superimposed by the influence of natural internal climate variability.Here,we address the detection of dynamic sea level(DSL)changes by combining the perspectives of a single and a multimodel ensemble approach(the 50-member CanESM5 and a 27-model ensemble,respectively,all retrieved from the CMIP6 archive),under three CMIP6 projected scenarios:SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.The ensemble analysis takes into account four key metrics:signal(S),noise(N),S/N ratio,and time of emergence(ToE).The results from both sets of ensembles agree in the fact that regions with higher S/N(associated with smaller uncertainties)also reflect earlier ToEs.The DSL signal is projected to emerge in the Southern Ocean,Southeast Pacific,Northwest Atlantic,and the Arctic.Results common for both sets of ensemble simulations show that while S progressively increases with increased projected emissions,N,in turn,does not vary substantially among the SSPs,suggesting that uncertainty arising from internal climate variability has little dependence on changes in the magnitude of external forcing.Projected changes are greater and quite similar for the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and considerably smaller for the SSP1-2.6,highlighting the importance of public policies towards lower emission scenarios and of keeping emissions below a certain threshold.

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

Relationship of calcitonin gene-related peptide with disease progression and prognosis of patients with severe traumatic brain injury

Calcitonin gene-related peptide（CGRP） has been implicated in multiple functions across many bioprocesses; however, whether CGRP is associated with severe traumatic brain injury（TBI） remains poorly understood. In this study, 96 adult patients with TBI（enrolled from September 2015 to December 2016） were divided into a mild/moderate TBI group（36 males and 25 females, aged 38 ± 13 years） and severe TBI group（22 males and 13 females, aged 38 ± 11 years） according to Glasgow Coma Scale scores. In addition, 25 healthy individuals were selected as controls（15 males and 10 females, aged 39 ± 13 years）. Radioimmunoassay was used to detect serum levels of CGRP and endothelin-1 at admission and at 12, 24, 48, 72 hours, and 7 days after admission. CGRP levels were remarkably lower, but endothelin-1 levels were obviously higher in the severe TBI group compared with mild/moderate TBI and control groups. Levels of CGRP were remarkably lower, but endothelin-1 levels were obviously higher in deceased patients compared with patients who survived. Survival analysis and logistic regression showed that both CGRP and endothelin-1 levels were associated with patient mortality, with each serving as an independent risk factor for 6-month mortality of severe TBI patients. Moreover, TBI patients with lower serum CGRP levels had a higher risk of death. Thus, our retrospective analysis demonstrates the potential utility of CGRP as a new biomarker, monitoring method, and therapeutic target for TBI.

CAS-ESM2.0 Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP)

The second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2.0)is participating in the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project(FAFMIP)experiments in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).The purpose of FAFMIP is to understand and reduce the uncertainty of ocean climate changes in response to increased CO2 forcing in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models(AOGCMs),including the simulations of ocean heat content(OHC)change,ocean circulation change,and sea level rise due to thermal expansion.FAFMIP experiments(including faf-heat,faf-stress,faf-water,faf-all,faf-passiveheat,faf-heat-NA50pct and faf-heat-NA0pct)have been conducted.All of the experiments were integrated over a 70-year period and the corresponding data have been uploaded to the Earth System Grid Federation data server for CMIP6 users to download.This paper describes the experimental design and model datasets and evaluates the preliminary results of CAS-ESM2.0 simulations of ocean climate changes in the FAFMIP experiments.The simulations of the changes in global ocean temperature,Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC),OHC,and dynamic sea level(DSL),are all reasonably reproduced.

FGOALS-g3 Model Datasets for CMIP6 Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project(FAFMIP)is an endorsed Model Intercomparison Project in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).The goal of FAFMIP is to investigate the spread in the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model projections of ocean climate change forced by increased CO2,including the uncertainties in the simulations of ocean heat uptake,global mean sea level rise due to ocean thermal expansion and dynamic sea level change due to ocean circulation and density changes.The FAFMIP experiments have already been conducted with the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,gridpoint version 3.0(FGOALS-g3).The model datasets have been submitted to the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF)node.Here,the details of the experiments,the output variables and some baseline results are presented.Compared with the preliminary results of other models,the evolutions of global mean variables can be reproduced well by FGOALS-g3.The simulations of spatial patterns are also consistent with those of other models in most regions except the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean,indicating large uncertainties in the regional sea level projections of these two regions.

Recurrence anomaly of ground water behavior before strong earthquakes in North China

By analyzing the relationship between ground water behavior and strong seismic activity during the past more than 20 years in North China, we have found similar water level descending variation of a part of wells in the short-term stage before several strong earthquakes. The characteristics of anomaly are: at the beginning, water level dropped abruptly or accelerated to drop; then it turned to slow rising with a smaller amplitude than that of descending; earthquakes occurred during the slow-rising process of water level, and at that time or before earthquake occurrence, water level rose with a large amplitude. Among more than 100 wells in North China, the descending anomalies were not recorded for many times, but similar variation processes of water level were noted at different wells before several strong earthquakes, which proves that seismic precursory anomalies of ground water are of certain recurrence features, occurring repeatedly before different strong earthquakes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the genesis of this type of anomaly and its relationship with strong seismic activity.

A feedback control mechanism for adaptive SLO maintenance in dynamic service level management

With the increasing scale of information technology(IT)service system,traditional thresholdbased static service level management(SLM)solution appears to be inadequate to meet current increasingly management requirement of SLM.Due to the stochastic service request rate,the random inherent failure and load surge of IT devices during service operating stage of large scaled IT system,service level objective(SLO)maintenance issue has become a realistic and important issue in dynamic SLM.This paper proposes a closed-loop feedback control mechanism to adaptively maintain SLO that service provider(SP)guaranteed at service operation stage.The mechanism can automatically tune the capacity of IT infrastructure according to service performance dispersion and reduce SLO violations.Considering that the tuning operations also affect service performance,fuzzy control is applied to alleviate the negative effect caused by tuning operations.In the dynamic SLM system that is applied with this mechanism compared with the traditional threshold-based solution,it is proved that the amount of SLO violations obviously decreases,the reliability of the service system increases relatively,and the resource utilization of IT infrastructure is optimized.