Superiority of a Convolutional Neural Network Model over Dynamical Models in Predicting Central Pacific ENSO

The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices.The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural network(CNN)model with historical simulations from CMIP6 models.Compared with dynamical models,the CNN model has higher skill in predicting the SSTAs in the equatorial western-central Pacific,but not in the eastern Pacific.The CNN model can successfully capture the small-scale precursors in the initial SSTAs for the development of central Pacific ENSO to distinguish the spatial mode up to a lead time of seven months.A fusion model combining the predictions of the CNN model and the dynamical models achieves higher skill than each of them for both central and eastern Pacific ENSO.

Dynamical analysis,control,boundedness,and prediction for a fractional-order financial risk system

This paper delves into the dynamical analysis,chaos control,Mittag–Leffler boundedness(MLB),and forecasting a fractional-order financial risk(FOFR)system through an absolute function term.To this end,the FOFR system is first proposed,and the adomian decomposition method(ADM)is employed to resolve this fractional-order system.The stability of equilibrium points and the corresponding control schemes are assessed,and several classical tools such as Lyapunov exponents(LE),bifurcation diagrams,complexity analysis(CA),and 0–1 test are further extended to analyze the dynamical behaviors of FOFR.Then the global Mittag–Leffler attractive set(MLAS)and Mittag–Leffler positive invariant set(MLPIS)for the proposed financial risk(FR)system are discussed.Finally,a proficient reservoir-computing(RC)method is applied to forecast the temporal evolution of the complex dynamics for the proposed system,and some simulations are carried out to show the effectiveness and feasibility of the present scheme.

Influencer identification of dynamical networks based on an information entropy dimension reduction method

Identifying critical nodes or sets in large-scale networks is a fundamental scientific problem and one of the key research directions in the fields of data mining and network science when implementing network attacks, defense, repair and control.Traditional methods usually begin from the centrality, node location or the impact on the largest connected component after node destruction, mainly based on the network structure.However, these algorithms do not consider network state changes.We applied a model that combines a random connectivity matrix and minimal low-dimensional structures to represent network connectivity.By using mean field theory and information entropy to calculate node activity,we calculated the overlap between the random parts and fixed low-dimensional parts to quantify the influence of node impact on network state changes and ranked them by importance.We applied this algorithm and the proposed importance algorithm to the overall analysis and stratified analysis of the C.elegans neural network.We observed a change in the critical entropy of the network state and by utilizing the proposed method we can calculate the nodes that indirectly affect muscle cells through neural layers.

Assessing the Performance of a Dynamical Downscaling Simulation Driven by a Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Dataset for Asian Climate

In this study,we aim to assess dynamical downscaling simulations by utilizing a novel bias-corrected global climate model(GCM)data to drive a regional climate model(RCM)over the Asia-western North Pacific region.Three simulations were conducted with a 25-km grid spacing for the period 1980–2014.The first simulation(WRF_ERA5)was driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5(ERA5)dataset and served as the validation dataset.The original GCM dataset(MPI-ESM1-2-HR model)was used to drive the second simulation(WRF_GCM),while the third simulation(WRF_GCMbc)was driven by the bias-corrected GCM dataset.The bias-corrected GCM data has an ERA5-based mean and interannual variance and long-term trends derived from the ensemble mean of 18 CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the WRF_GCMbc significantly reduced the root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)of the climatological mean of downscaled variables,including temperature,precipitation,snow,wind,relative humidity,and planetary boundary layer height by 50%–90%compared to the WRF_GCM.Similarly,the RMSEs of interannual-tointerdecadal variances of downscaled variables were reduced by 30%–60%.Furthermore,the WRF_GCMbc better captured the annual cycle of the monsoon circulation and intraseasonal and day-to-day variabilities.The leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF)shows a monopole precipitation mode in the WRF_GCM.In contrast,the WRF_GCMbc successfully reproduced the observed tri-pole mode of summer precipitation over eastern China.This improvement could be attributed to a better-simulated location of the western North Pacific subtropical high in the WRF_GCMbc after GCM bias correction.

Enhanced measurement precision with continuous interrogation during dynamical decoupling

Dynamical decoupling(DD)is normally ineffective when applied to DC measurement.In its straightforward implementation,DD nulls out DC signal as well while suppressing noise.This work proposes a phase relay method that is capable of continuously interrogating the DC signal over many DD cycles.We illustrate its efficacy when applied to the measurement of a weak DC magnetic field with an atomic spinor Bose-Einstein condensate.Sensitivities approaching standard quantum limit or Heisenberg limit are potentially realizable for a coherent spin state or a squeezed spin state of 10000 atoms,respectively,while ambient laboratory level noise is suppressed by DD.Our work offers a practical approach to mitigate the limitations of DD to DC measurement and would find other applications for resorting coherence in quantum sensing and quantum information processing research.

Target layer state estimation in multi-layer complex dynamical networks considering nonlinear node dynamics

In many engineering networks, only a part of target state variables are required to be estimated.On the other hand,multi-layer complex network exists widely in practical situations.In this paper, the state estimation of target state variables in multi-layer complex dynamical networks with nonlinear node dynamics is studied.A suitable functional state observer is constructed with the limited measurement.The parameters of the designed functional observer are obtained from the algebraic method and the stability of the functional observer is proven by the Lyapunov theorem.Some necessary conditions that need to be satisfied for the design of the functional state observer are obtained.Different from previous studies, in the multi-layer complex dynamical network with nonlinear node dynamics, the proposed method can estimate the state of target variables on some layers directly instead of estimating all the individual states.Thus, it can greatly reduce the placement of observers and computational cost.Numerical simulations with the three-layer complex dynamical network composed of three-dimensional nonlinear dynamical nodes are developed to verify the effectiveness of the method.

A Neural-network-based Alternative Scheme to Include Nonhydrostatic Processes in an Atmospheric Dynamical Core

Here,a nonhydrostatic alternative scheme(NAS)is proposed for the grey zone where the nonhydrostatic impact on the atmosphere is evident but not large enough to justify the necessity to include an implicit nonhydrostatic solver in an atmospheric dynamical core.The NAS is designed to replace this solver,which can be incorporated into any hydrostatic models so that existing well-developed hydrostatic models can effectively serve for a longer time.Recent advances in machine learning(ML)provide a potential tool for capturing the main complicated nonlinear-nonhydrostatic relationship.In this study,an ML approach called a neural network(NN)was adopted to select leading input features and develop the NAS.The NNs were trained and evaluated with 12-day simulation results of dry baroclinic-wave tests by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.The forward time difference of the nonhydrostatic tendency was used as the target variable,and the five selected features were the nonhydrostatic tendency at the last time step,and four hydrostatic variables at the current step including geopotential height,pressure in two different forms,and potential temperature,respectively.Finally,a practical NAS was developed with these features and trained layer by layer at a 20-km horizontal resolution,which can accurately reproduce the temporal variation and vertical distribution of the nonhydrostatic tendency.Corrected by the NN-based NAS,the improved hydrostatic solver at different horizontal resolutions can run stably for at least one month and effectively reduce most of the nonhydrostatic errors in terms of system bias,anomaly root-mean-square error,and the error of the wave spatial pattern,which proves the feasibility and superiority of this scheme.

Computing large deviation prefactors of stochastic dynamical systems based on machine learning

We present a large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events in stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise.We aim to consider a next-to-leading-order approximation for more accurate calculation of the mean exit time by computing large deviation prefactors with the aid of machine learning.More specifically,we design a neural network framework to compute quasipotential,most probable paths and prefactors based on the orthogonal decomposition of a vector field.We corroborate the higher effectiveness and accuracy of our algorithm with two toy models.Numerical experiments demonstrate its powerful functionality in exploring the internal mechanism of rare events triggered by weak random fluctuations.

Universal basis underlying temperature, pressure and size induced dynamical evolution in metallic glass-forming liquids

The dramatic temperature-dependence of liquids dynamics has attracted considerable scientific interests and efforts in the past decades, but the physics of which remains elusive. In addition to temperature, some other parameters, such as pressure, loading and size, can also tune the liquid dynamics and induce glass transition, which makes the situation more complicated. Here, we performed molecular dynamics simulations for Ni_(50)Zr_(50) bulk liquid and nanodroplet to study the dynamics evolution in the complex multivariate phase space, especially along the isotherm with the change of pressure or droplet size. It is found that the short-time Debye–Waller factor universally determines the long-time relaxation dynamics no matter how the temperature, pressure or size changes. The basic correlation even holds at the local atomic scale. This finding provides general understanding of the microscopic mechanism of dynamic arrest and dynamic heterogeneity.

Dynamical localization in a non-Hermitian Floquet synthetic system

We investigate the non-Hermitian effects on quantum diffusion in a kicked rotor model where the complex kicking potential is quasi-periodically modulated in the time domain.The synthetic space with arbitrary dimension can be created by incorporating incommensurate frequencies in the quasi-periodical modulation.In the Hermitian case,strong kicking induces the chaotic diffusion in the four-dimension momentum space characterized by linear growth of mean energy.We find that the quantum coherence in deep non-Hermitian regime can effectively suppress the chaotic diffusion and hence result in the emergence of dynamical localization.Moreover,the extent of dynamical localization is dramatically enhanced by increasing the non-Hermitian parameter.Interestingly,the quasi-energies become complex when the non-Hermitian parameter exceeds a certain threshold value.The quantum state will finally evolve to a quasi-eigenstate for which the imaginary part of its quasi-energy is large most.The exponential localization length decreases with the increase of the non-Hermitian parameter,unveiling the underlying mechanism of the enhancement of the dynamical localization by nonHermiticity.

Spontaneous Recovery in Directed Dynamical Networks

Complex networked systems,which range from biological systems in the natural world to infrastructure systems in the human-made world,can exhibit spontaneous recovery after a failure;for example,a brain may spontaneously return to normal after a seizure,and traffic flow can become smooth again after a jam.Previous studies on the spontaneous recovery of dynamical networks have been limited to undirected networks.However,most real-world networks are directed.To fill this gap,we build a model in which nodes may alternately fail and recover,and we develop a theoretical tool to analyze the recovery properties of directed dynamical networks.We find that the tool can accurately predict the final fraction of active nodes,and the prediction accuracy decreases as the fraction of bidirectional links in the network increases,which emphasizes the importance of directionality in network dynamics.Due to different initial states,directed dynamical networks may show alternative stable states under the same control parameter,exhibiting hysteresis behavior.In addition,for networks with finite sizes,the fraction of active nodes may jump back and forth between high and low states,mimicking repetitive failure-recovery processes.These findings could help clarify the system recovery mechanism and enable better design of networked systems with high resilience.

A Dynamical System-Based Framework for Dimension Reduction

We propose a novel framework for learning a low-dimensional representation of data based on nonlinear dynamical systems,which we call the dynamical dimension reduction(DDR).In the DDR model,each point is evolved via a nonlinear flow towards a lower-dimensional subspace;the projection onto the subspace gives the low-dimensional embedding.Training the model involves identifying the nonlinear flow and the subspace.Following the equation discovery method,we represent the vector field that defines the flow using a linear combination of dictionary elements,where each element is a pre-specified linear/nonlinear candidate function.A regularization term for the average total kinetic energy is also introduced and motivated by the optimal transport theory.We prove that the resulting optimization problem is well-posed and establish several properties of the DDR method.We also show how the DDR method can be trained using a gradient-based optimization method,where the gradients are computed using the adjoint method from the optimal control theory.The DDR method is implemented and compared on synthetic and example data sets to other dimension reduction methods,including the PCA,t-SNE,and Umap.

Charge self-consistent dynamical mean field theory calculations incombination with linear combination of numerical atomic orbitalsframework based density functional theory

We present a formalism of charge self-consistent dynamical mean field theory(DMFT)in combination with densityfunctional theory(DFT)within the linear combination of numerical atomic orbitals(LCNAO)framework.We implementedthe charge self-consistent DFT+DMFT formalism by interfacing a full-potential all-electron DFT code with threehybridization expansion-based continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo impurity solvers.The benchmarks on several 3d,4fand 5f strongly correlated electron systems validated our formalism and implementation.Furthermore,within the LCANOframework,our formalism is general and the code architecture is extensible,so it can work as a bridge merging differentLCNAO DFT packages and impurity solvers to do charge self-consistent DFT+DMFT calculations.

Theory and practice for assessing structural integrity and dynamical integrity of high-speed trains

Purpose–The safety and reliability of high-speed trains rely on the structural integrity of their components and the dynamic performance of the entire vehicle system.This paper aims to define and substantiate the assessment of the structural integrity and dynamical integrity of high-speed trains in both theory and practice.The key principles and approacheswill be proposed,and their applications to high-speed trains in Chinawill be presented.Design/methodology/approach–First,the structural integrity and dynamical integrity of high-speed trains are defined,and their relationship is introduced.Then,the principles for assessing the structural integrity of structural and dynamical components are presented and practical examples of gearboxes and dampers are provided.Finally,the principles and approaches for assessing the dynamical integrity of highspeed trains are presented and a novel operational assessment method is further presented.Findings–Vehicle system dynamics is the core of the proposed framework that provides the loads and vibrations on train components and the dynamic performance of the entire vehicle system.For assessing the structural integrity of structural components,an open-loop analysis considering both normal and abnormal vehicle conditions is needed.For assessing the structural integrity of dynamical components,a closed-loop analysis involving the influence of wear and degradation on vehicle system dynamics is needed.The analysis of vehicle system dynamics should follow the principles of complete objects,conditions and indices.Numerical,experimental and operational approaches should be combined to achieve effective assessments.Originality/value–The practical applications demonstrate that assessing the structural integrity and dynamical integrity of high-speed trains can support better control of critical defects,better lifespan management of train components and better maintenance decision-making for high-speed trains.

Dynamical Modeling and Dynamic Characteristics Analysisof a Coaxial Dual-Rotor System

The dual-rotor structure serves as the primary source of vibration in aero-engines. Understanding itsdynamical model and analyzing dynamic characteristics, such as critical speed and unbalanced response, arecrucial for rotor system dynamics. Previous work introduced a coaxial dual-rotor-support scheme for aeroengines,and a physical model featuring a high-speed flexible inner rotor with a substantial length-to-diameter ratiowas designed. Then a finite element (FE) dynamic model based on the Timoshenko beam elements and rigid bodykinematics of the dual-rotor system is modeled, with the Newmark method and Newton–Raphson method used forthe numerical calculation to study the dynamic characteristics of the system. Three different simulation models,including beam-based FE (1D) model, solid-based FE (3D) model, and transfer matrix model, were designed tostudy the characteristics of mode and the critical speed characteristic of the dual-rotor system. The unbalancedresponse of the dual-rotor system was analyzed to study the influence of mass unbalance on the rotor system. Theeffect of different disk unbalance phases and different speed ratios on the dynamic characteristics of the dual-rotorsystem was investigated in detail. The experimental result shows that the beam-based FE model is effective andsuitable for studying the dual-rotor system.

Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Using WRF: A Dynamical Downscaling Perspective

Seasonal forecasting of the Indian summer monsoon by dynamically downscaling the CFSv2 output using a high resolution WRF model over the hindcast period of 1982-2008 has been performed in this study. The April start ensemble mean of the CFSv2 has been used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for driving the WRF. The WRF model is integrated from 1st May through 1st October for each monsoon season. The analysis suggests that the WRF exhibits potential skill in improving the rainfall skill as well as the seasonal pattern and minimizes the meteorological errors as compared to the parent CFSv2 model. The rainfall pattern is simulated quite closer to the observation (IMD) in the WRF model over CFSv2 especially over the significant rainfall regions of India such as the Western Ghats and the central India. Probability distributions of the rainfall show that the rainfall is improved with the WRF. However, the WRF simulates copious amounts of rainfall over the eastern coast of India. Surface and upper air meteorological parameters show that the WRF model improves the simulation of the lower level and upper-level winds, MSLP, CAPE and PBL height. The specific humidity profiles show substantial improvement along the vertical column of the atmosphere which can be directly related to the net precipitable water. The CFSv2 underestimates the specific humidity along the vertical which is corrected by the WRF model. Over the Bay of Bengal, the WRF model overestimates the CAPE and specific humidity which may be attributed to the copious amount of rainfall along the eastern coast of India. Residual heating profiles also show that the WRF improves the thermodynamics of the atmosphere over 700 hPa and 400 hPa levels which helps in improving the rainfall simulation. Improvement in the land surface fluxes is also witnessed in the WRF model.

Dynamically triggered seismicity on a tectonic scale:A review

Earthquakes triggered by dynamic disturbances have been confirmed by numerous observations and experiments.In the past several decades,earthquake triggering has attracted increasing attention of scholars in relation to exploring the mechanism of earthquake triggering,earthquake prediction,and the desire to use the mechanism of earthquake triggering to reduce,prevent,or trigger earthquakes.Natural earthquakes and large‐scale explosions are the most common sources of dynamic disturbances that trigger earthquakes.In the past several decades,some models have been developed,including static,dynamic,quasi‐static,and other models.Some reviews have been published,but explosiontriggered seismicity was not included.In recent years,some new results on earthquake triggering have emerged.Therefore,this paper presents a new review to reflect the new results and include the content of explosion‐triggered earthquakes for the reference of scholars in this area.Instead of a complete review of the relevant literature,this paper primarily focuses on the main aspects of dynamic earthquake triggering on a tectonic scale and makes some suggestions on issues that need to be resolved in this area in the future.

Exponential Synchronization of Delayed Stochastic Complex Dynamical Networks via Hybrid Impulsive Control

Dear Editor,This letter addresses the synchronization problem of a class of delayed stochastic complex dynamical networks consisting of multiple drive and response nodes.The aim is to achieve mean square exponential synchronization for the drive-response nodes despite the simultaneous presence of time delays and stochastic noises in node dynamics.

Structure and dynamical properties during solidification of liquid aluminum induced by cooling and compression

The structural transformation from a liquid into a crystalline solid is an important subject in condensed matter physics and materials science. In the present study, first-principles molecular dynamics calculations are performed to investigate the structure and properties of aluminum during the solidification which is induced by cooling and compression. In the cooling process and compression process, it is found that the icosahedral short-range order is initially enhanced and then begin to decay, the face-centered cubic short-range order eventually becomes dominant before it transforms into a crystalline solid.

A Unique Modelling Strategy to Dynamically Simulate the Performance of a Lobe Pump for Industrial Applications

The performance of a newly designed tri-lobe industrial lobe pump of high capacity is simulated by using commercial CFD solver Ansys Fluent. A combination of user-defined-functions and meshing strategies is employed to capture the rotation of the lobes. The numerical model is validated by comparing the simulated results with the literature values. The processes of suction, displacement, compression and exhaust are accurately captured in the transient simulation. The fluid pressure value remains in the range of inlet pressure value till the processes of suction and displacement are over. The instantaneous process of compression is accurately captured in the simulation. The movement of a particular working chamber is traced along the gradual degree of lobe’s rotation. At five different degrees of lobe’s rotation, pressure contour plots are reported which clearly shows the pressure values inside the working chamber. Each pressure value inside the working chamber conforms to the particular process in which the working chamber is operating. Finally, the power requirement at the shaft of rotation is estimated from the simulated values. The estimated value of power requirement is 3.61 BHP FHP whereas the same calculated theoretically is 3 BHP FHP. The discrepancy is attributed to the assumption of symmetry of blower along the thickness.