Information Models for Forecasting Nonlinear Economic Dynamics in the Digital Era

The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5th information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6th LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation cycle simulated by the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences

On the basis of more than 200-year control run, the performance of the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS-ESM-C） in simulating the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） cycle is evalu- ated, including the onset, development and decay of the ENSO. It is shown that, the model can reasonably simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in the tropical Pacif- ic, as well as the seasonal phase-locking of the ENSO. The model also captures two prerequisites for the E1 Nino onset, i.e., a westerly anomaly and a warm SST anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific. Owing to too strong forcing from an extratropical meridional wind, however, the westerly anomaly in this region is largely overestimated. Moreover, the simulated thermocline is much shallower with a weaker slope. As a result, the warm SST anomaly from the western Pacific propagates eastward more quickly, leading to a faster develop- ment of an E1 Nino. During the decay stage, owing to a stronger E1Nino in the model, the secondary Gill-type response of the tropical atmosphere to the eastern Pacific warming is much stronger, thereby resulting in a persistent easterly anomaly in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, a cold anomaly in the warm pool appears as a result of a lifted thermocline via Ekman pumping. Finally, an E1 Nino decays into a La Nina through their interactions. In addition, the shorter period and larger amplitude of the ENSO in the model can be attribut- ed to a shallower thermocline in the equatorial Pacific, which speeds up the zonal redistribution of a heat content in the upper ocean.

Identification of Areas of Econophysical Models Application

The article presents results of reflections on practical applications of econophysical models in different fields and areas of the management support and answers the question： In what areas and scopes of the management process is usage of econophysical models already effective or very likely to be effective？ It discusses the problem of gravity models and minority games used in economic and social sciences. Their applications in areas such as trade, transport, analysis of financial market fluctuations, or decision making are presented. An attempt is made to identify missing pieces in the area of broadly understood management, and possible directions for further research are suggested. The paper uses research methods such as desk research and literature review.

构建GPT大模型的经济循环体系:理论框架与发展路径

数字技术的爆发式增长及其与实体经济的深度融合,为推动中国经济高质量发展提供了强大动能,成为促进生产方式变革和经济结构变迁的主要力量。GPT大模型作为新一代人工智能技术,具有强大的自然语言处理能力,将持续对经济增长、生产效率、要素分配等各方面产生深刻影响。文本试图通过构建GPT大模型的经济循环体系、GPT大模型在国内外经济循环中发挥作用的理论框架以及GPT大模型的经济循环体系的发展路径,揭示GPT大模型经济循环体系的作用机制,为实体产业应用GPT大模型实现提质增效、助力经济高质量发展提供现实启示和参考依据。

基于绿色建筑全寿命周期的增量成本与收益模型研究

基于绿色建筑全寿命周期理论,以现有绿色建筑评价标准为基础,分析绿色建筑全寿命周期内增量成本与增量收益,构建经济性评价模型,并对某绿色建筑项目进行评估与分析,打破绿色建筑“高消费”的固有模式,推动绿色建筑市场化、普及化,促进绿色建筑发展,加速低碳经济转型。

跨境电商集聚对区域经济发展的空间效应研究

选取2016—2021年长三角、京津冀、珠三角地区的45个地级市面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型对跨境电商集聚和区域经济发展之间的影响效应进行实证研究。研究结果发现:跨境电商集聚对区域经济发展具有正向促进作用;此外,对外贸易水平、信息化水平、物流服务水平、人力资本、政府支持都是促进长三角、京津冀、珠三角区域经济发展的共同因素。应着力正视区域发展不平衡现象,强化区域间协同合作,完善电商配套服务体系,构建跨境电商创新生态体系,推动区域经济高质量发展。

电子商务发展与经济增长互动创新发展研究

利用2014-2021年山东省16地市电子商务发展和经济增长的面板时间序列数据,采用PVAR模型和SWOT-AHP模型,从推动力和拉动力两个维度分析了电子商务发展与经济增长的互动关系及影响因素。研究发现,电子商务发展与经济增长之间存在长期依存关系并具有单向因果关系;“紧缩规避(WT)”的战略方案是影响电子商务发展的制约性因素。政府应从政策争取与落实、人才培养与流动、企业联合与交融、氛围建设与维护四个方面促进电子商务发展与经济增长良性互动。

基于全生命周期经济评估的海上风电发展与思考

现阶段对海上风电经济性评估研究较少,而海上风电亟需经济性评估作为其大面积应用的基础。立足海上风电项目的经济性,首先,梳理了海上风电场的组成及发展,分析目前海上风电的3类6种发展模式;接着,将海上风电项目全生命周期分为初始投资、运营维护及退役回收3个阶段,分析各阶段的成本并搭建其数学模型;然后,引入净现值等6个经济指标评价了一个海上风电案例;最后,归纳海上风电当前发展及研究的不足,指明未来的研究方向,为海上风电更经济化的发展提供支撑和参考。

国外跨境电子商务税收冲击的经济效应:基于TSO-DSGE模型的研究

基于跨境电子商务的特点,本文构建了一个包含异质性贸易品生产商的三部门开放经济动态随机一般均衡模型,并在模型中引入了跨境电子商务出口贸易中介部门,定量分析了国外跨境电子商务税收冲击的经济效应。结果发现:①国外跨境电子商务税收冲击对我国产出的影响较为显著,抑制强度达71.3%,持续时间大致为10季;②对于厂商而言,税收冲击会提高产品价格,抑制国外居民消费,引发国内产出下降;为追求利润最大化,国内资本和劳动会转向传统贸易品和非贸易品;③提高跨境电子商务在出口贸易中的占比虽会导致收敛周期变长,但能更有效应对税收冲击;④跨境电子商务产品替代弹性越小,税收冲击的负面影响越小;且减少替代弹性能使税收冲击响应强度按64.22%的速度衰减,同时使产出波动周期平均缩短4.75季。据此,提出培育品牌卖家、增强消费者的品牌认同感,细化目标消费者、提高消费价格粘性,出台临时性出口补贴应对机制、落实解决出口退税难等对策。

基于P-E-R模型城市人口承载力的判断与提升路径研究——以青岛市为例

人口承载力正在成为制约城市规模扩张的关键因素。青岛市城镇化水平不断提高的同时,人口规模与城市承载力之间的矛盾日益凸显。运用P-E-R模型,基于高、中、低三方案,分别测算青岛市2007-2013年经济人口承载力、资源人口承载力。研究发现:青岛市经济人口承载力高于资源人口承载力,产业发展以资源高投入为代价;经济人口承载力差异明显,未来就业潜力堪忧;自然资源接近或达到本地资源潜力极限,人口承载力亟需进一步提升。鉴于此,新型城镇化背景下,青岛市提高人口承载力的路径是:协同推进人口发展与产业转型升级,增强经济承载力;促进人口合理布局,提高空间承载力;统筹推进城乡生态保护,提高资源环境承载力。

落实国家自主贡献对经济增长和能源对外依赖的影响

更新的国家自主贡献(NDCs)所描绘的碳减排路径,能够实现《巴黎协定》要求的2℃温控目标,这是全球应对气候变化努力的里程碑。然而,现有文献尚缺乏关于落实更新的NDCs的经济及能源影响效应的研究。有鉴于此,该研究借助全球多区域动态可计算一般均衡模型(GDyn-E),预测并比较了全球共同落实更新的NDCs对中国等主要国家和地区中长期经济增长、能源对外依赖水平的动态影响。研究发现:①中国落实国家自主贡献新目标,亦即“双碳”目标,无论是从相对减排幅度还是绝对减排幅度来看都表现十分优异,将与美、欧等发达经济体共同引领全球碳减排,为全球气候治理做出突出贡献。②全球共同落实更新的NDCs的经济影响呈现出很强的区域异质性,中国经济受到的负面影响较小,到2050年实际GDP损失率为0.27%~1.12%;美国和欧盟也表现出较好的经济韧性,但一些欠发达地区及化石能源净出口国会面临较为严重的经济损失。③化石能源净进口国可收获碳减排与提高能源独立性的协同效益,但化石能源净出口国的出口收入将受损。对于中国来说,得益于化石能源进口减少,可再生能源电力出口增加,中国的能源对外依赖度将在2030年后不断降低;与此同时,非化石能源占比显著提升,化石能源进口来源地也呈现多样化,这都将有助于提高中国整体的能源安全水平。基于上述结论,提出如下建议:中国在落实“双碳”目标进程中,要及时关注并督促各国NDCs履行落实情况,积极提供绿色援助,加强应对气候变化国际合作,同时积极拓展能源贸易伙伴,推动清洁能源贸易的开展。该研究揭示了全球共同落实更新的NDCs对中国等主要国家和地区经济发展、能源对外依赖的重要影响,可为中国在碳达峰碳中和进程中统筹碳减排、经济发展、能源安全,深度参与全球气候治理提供决策参考。

产业结构调整不同目标对降低二氧化碳排放量效果研究——基于GTAP-E模型

中国是全球温室气体排放第一大国,为减少二氧化碳的排放,中国承诺"到2015年,将通过各项措施实现单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2010年下降17%的目标"。本文利用多区域多部门GTAP-E模型,研究中国经济增长、节能减排、产业结构最优这3种不同的产业结构调整目标将对二氧化碳排放量造成的影响,结果发现,确保单一目标能够实现的政策措施无法在保证经济平稳运行的情况下同时实现产业结构优化和二氧化碳排放量有效降低,多项政策合理搭配应当作为政府今后的努力方向。

过度投资对经济周期作用的VEC模型测度

2008年金融危机后,我国采取投资拉动策略复苏经济,然而投资规模是否过度一直是实务界和经济学界争论的焦点。本研究采用实际GDP增长率、资本形成总额、银行部门提供的国内信贷、外国直接投资净流入、市场资本总额和CPI作为系统关键变量,通过VEC模型分析投资对经济周期的影响,根据对未来经济周期指标的预测判断我国目前是否存在过度投资,并提出将投资增长率、信贷增长率、股市市值增长率分别稳定在17%、18%和32%的政策建议。

非理想E类零电流开关整流器的时域分析

对非理想Ｅ类零电流开关整流电路进行了时域分析，所用的整流电路模型包含了二极管导通电阻，阀值电压和滤波电容；导出了决定电路工作状态的方程，给出了减小非理想元件影响的数值解．

电子商务发展水平的影响因素及经济效应研究

本文基于2015—2022年中国内地30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,实证检验电子商务发展的影响因素及其经济效应,西藏地区数据缺失较为严重,故排除在外。结果表明:(1)电子商务发展存在一定的自我调节机制,基础设施水平改善、消费水平提高、政府支出增加都能在不同程度上对电子商务发展具有显著的促进作用。(2)现阶段居民消费水平的提高对电子商务发展的促进作用是最明显的。(3)电子商务发展显著地促进了经济增长,但电子商务发展对经济增长的影响不是简单的促进作用,经济增长水平越高,越能促进电子商务发展,但同时电子商务的发展也会在一定程度上带来一定的负外部性,诸如实体经济的不景气、就业困难等问题,从而阻碍经济增长,且不同地区电子商务发展对经济增长的作用有所差别。根据这些结论本文提出相关政策建议。

金融周期视角下政策不确定性对杠杆率的影响研究

为了研究在金融周期的不同阶段如何优化各部门的杠杆率,选取2007年至2021年的经济政策不确定性指数与企业、金融和政府部门杠杆率数据,采取马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归(MS-VAR)模型,将金融周期识别为扩张阶段与收缩阶段,分区制研究经济政策不确定性指数对各部门杠杆率波动的影响。实证研究发现,这种影响存在异质性与非对称效应:各部门杠杆率在金融周期扩张阶段对政策不确定性的响应程度高于金融周期收缩阶段;政策不确定性在金融周期扩张阶段降低企业和政府杠杆率,在收缩阶段则是提高作用,而对金融部门杠杆率在任何阶段都是正向冲击。因此,应该根据杠杆率的顺逆周期特征判断政策调整方向,降低政策不确定性的不良影响,减少金融周期带来的不利冲击。

国家电子商务示范城市建设降低了碳排放吗?——来自长江经济带城市的经验数据

文章以国家电子商务示范城市政策作为准自然实验,选取2006—2020年长江经济带106个城市的面板数据,运用双重差分法检验城市电商化转型对城市碳减排的影响,结果显示,城市电商化转型显著降低长江经济带城市的碳排放水平,并在经过多重稳健性检验后依然成立。城市电商化转型主要通过推动产业结构升级、降低能源消耗以及促进绿色技术创新实现碳减排效应,该效应在不同地理区位和城市特征下存在差异。鉴于此,长江经济带城市应总结示范城市建设经验、加大电子商务绿色发展理念的支持以及采取因地制宜的城市电商化转型策略,实现经济发展与环境保护双向协调推进。

Analyzing Industrial Structure Evolution of Old Industrial Cities Using Evolutionary Resilience Theory：A Case Study in Shenyang of China

The recession and revitalization of old industrial cities concerns urban industrial evolution and its characteristics. Based on the theory of evolutionary resilience, we developed an analytical framework for the industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities, and applied the framework to a case study in Shenyang. The following conclusions are drawn. First, since 1978, Shenyang's industrial growth capacity has shown fluctuation between ‘contraction-expansion'. As the secondary industry has a much stronger expansionary and contractionary capacity for growth, this results in lacking stability leading to industrial structure transformation. Second, since 1999, the orientation towards a high-end manufacturing industry in Shenyang has weakened, and the evolution of the new and old growth path is characterized by low-end orientation. Third, since 2007, Shenyang's industrial innovation output capacity has dropped sharply which has been significantly affected by scientific and technological personnel and enterprise-owed science and technology institutions and to a less extent by R&D expenditure. We applied the resilience theory to study the industrial evolution of an old industrial city, explored new study perspectives on industrial evolution and verified the applicability of the resilience theory. This paper provides a scientific reference for understanding the recent deceleration in economic growth in the Northeast old industrial base, and for exploring new paths toward revitalization.

AN ECONOMIC MODEL-BASED MATCHING APPROACH BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS THROUGH A BROKER IN AN OPEN E- MARKETPLACE

A broker in an open e-marketplace enables buyers and sellers to do business with each other. Although a broker plays an important role in e-marketplaces, theory and guidelines for matching between buyers and sellers in multi-attribute exchanges are limited. Therefore, a challenge for a broker＇s responsibility is how to maximize a buyer＇s total satisfaction degree as its goals under the consideration of trade-off between a buyer＇s buying quantity and price paid to a seller, and other attributes. To solve this challenge, this paper proposes an economic model-based matching approach between a buyer＇s requirements and a seller＇s offers. The major contributions of this paper are that （i） a broker can model a seller＇s price policy as per a buyer＇s buying quantity through communication between a broker and a seller; （ii） due to each buyer＇s different quantity demand, a broker models a buyer＇s satisfaction degree as per a buyer＇s buying quantity based on communication between a broker and a buyer; and （iii） to carry out a broker＇s matching processes, an objective function and a set of constraints are generated to help a broker to maximize a buyer＇s total satisfaction degree. Experimental results demonstrate the good performance of the proposed approach.

滇中城市经济圈可持续发展探讨——基于P-E-R区域匹配模型

承载力分析是对社会可持续发展能力评价的有效指标,朱宝树教授提出的P-E-R区域匹配模型通过相对经济承载力和相对资源承载力的分析可具体考察各区域内人口与经济、资源承载力3者的关系,进而阐释区域社会可持续发展的能力。滇中城市经济圈各地相对经济承载力和相对资源承载力各有不同,因而所存在的可持续发展问题各异。影响滇中城市经济圈可持续发展的问题主要是人口压力大、资源环境承载力脆弱、经济发展滞后、产业支撑力不够等。因此,针对这些影响滇中城市经济圈可持续发展的问题,制定一些合理的相关人口政策和经济政策对滇中城市经济圈的可持续发展是有必要的。