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赤道太平洋温度纬向对流距平分析及其与ElNio/LaNia的关系
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作者 蔡怡 余宙文 《海洋预报》 北大核心 2004年第1期1-8,共8页
本文用最近 20 年赤道太平洋温度、流场资料,诊断了绝热不可压缩热平衡方程中纬向对流项,并且利用 EOF 分析方法,讨论了纬向对流距平变化及其与 El Nino/La Nina 的关系。分析发现:赤道太平洋温度纬向对流距平 EOF 分析第一模态反映了... 本文用最近 20 年赤道太平洋温度、流场资料,诊断了绝热不可压缩热平衡方程中纬向对流项,并且利用 EOF 分析方法,讨论了纬向对流距平变化及其与 El Nino/La Nina 的关系。分析发现:赤道太平洋温度纬向对流距平 EOF 分析第一模态反映了在经向的振荡,第二模态反映了在纬向的振动,它们都与 El Nino/LaNina 有密切的联系。这两个模态占了总量的 70%左右。纬向温度对流距平在 3°S^3°N、3°S 以南和 3°N 以北分为正负相间的三个不同的区域,当 3°S 以南和 3°N 以北的区域温度纬向对流正/负距平沿着斜温层向西太平洋移动时,赤道区域的温度纬向对流负/正距平则穿越斜温层向东太平洋移动,形成以赤道为对称的南北两个回路。对应赤道,在 3°S 以南和 3°N 以北区域的纬向温度对流距平并不是对称的,它们在位相、中心强度和中心强度位置上都是不同的,其中 3°N 以北与赤道区域形成一个比较明显的回路,而赤道以南的回路就不是那么明显。在赤道西太平洋暖池,温度的纬向对流有很大的贡献。在 El Nino 发生前一年,赤道西太平洋暖池,主要暖的对流发生在赤道和其以南地区。 展开更多
关键词 纬向温度对流距平 海温 流场 EOF分析 e1nino/LaNina
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不同空间型的El Nio对江淮流域夏季降水的影响 被引量:2
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作者 夏羽 朱伟军 章毅之 《热带气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2013年第6期963-972,共10页
利用江淮流域1979—2010年夏季降水资料和海温资料等,研究了不同空间型的El Nio对江淮流域夏季降水的影响。结果表明,El Nio年江淮流域夏季降水异常为东部偏多西部偏少,El Nio Modok年为全区偏少,这与用江淮流域夏季降水和同期热... 利用江淮流域1979—2010年夏季降水资料和海温资料等,研究了不同空间型的El Nio对江淮流域夏季降水的影响。结果表明,El Nio年江淮流域夏季降水异常为东部偏多西部偏少,El Nio Modok年为全区偏少,这与用江淮流域夏季降水和同期热带太平洋海温进行SVD分析的模态几乎一致。对东亚夏季风和环流场的分析结果表明其原因可能为:El Nio年东亚夏季风稍偏弱,长江中下游有异常上升运动,我国东北至西北太平洋海盆及江淮流域为负位势高度距平,华南至菲律宾海为正位势高度距平,江淮流域从低层到高层均为气旋性环流异常控制;而El Nio Modoki年为强东亚夏季风,且江淮流域有强烈的异常下沉运动,菲律宾、我国南海以及孟加拉湾北部均为显著的负位势高度距平,正距平中心位于日本及我国东海地区,菲律宾海地区及我国江淮流域低层的异常气旋式环流中心比El Nio年偏西且强度偏强,高层的异常反气旋环流中心也比El Nio年偏西、偏北,同时西太平洋副热带高压位置也较偏北。 展开更多
关键词 e1nino Modok 夏季降水 SVD分析 环流异常
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热带大气季节内振荡和ENSO的相互关系 被引量:80
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作者 李崇银 周亚萍 《地球物理学报》 SCIE EI CSCD 北大核心 1994年第1期17-26,共10页
通过观测资料的分析和数值模拟,研究了热带大气季节内振荡与ENSO的相互关系.一方面,在E1Nino事件发生之前,热带大气季节内振荡(尤其是在赤道中西太平洋地区)异常偏强,通过海一气相互作用它可能是E1Nino的一种重... 通过观测资料的分析和数值模拟,研究了热带大气季节内振荡与ENSO的相互关系.一方面,在E1Nino事件发生之前,热带大气季节内振荡(尤其是在赤道中西太平洋地区)异常偏强,通过海一气相互作用它可能是E1Nino的一种重要激发机制.同时,赤道中西太平洋地区大气季节内振荡的异常加强同东亚中高纬度地区30—60天振荡的加强和强东亚冬季风有关.另一方面,ENSO对热带大气季节内振荡也有重要影响,在E1Nino期间,热带大气季节内振荡明显减弱;其结构明显趋于正压性. 展开更多
关键词 厄尔尼诺 大气振荡 季节 热带
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南海海浪场与厄尔尼诺的相关性分析 被引量:7
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作者 郭随平 庄卉 +3 位作者 郑崇伟 贾本凯 陈志禄 王健 《海洋预报》 北大核心 2012年第6期37-43,共7页
利用来自ECMWF具有较高时空分辨率的近45年ERA-40海表风场资料和将风浪、涌浪分离的ERA-40海浪再分析资料,分析了南海海表风场、海浪场与厄尔尼诺的相关性。研究发现:(1)南海的海表风场、海浪场与nino3指数有着密切的关系,其中涌浪、混... 利用来自ECMWF具有较高时空分辨率的近45年ERA-40海表风场资料和将风浪、涌浪分离的ERA-40海浪再分析资料,分析了南海海表风场、海浪场与厄尔尼诺的相关性。研究发现:(1)南海的海表风场、海浪场与nino3指数有着密切的关系,其中涌浪、混合浪与nino3指数的相关性好于风浪;7月和10月海浪场与nino3指数的相关性好于1月和4月,其中4月相关性为全年最低。(2)南海海表风场、风浪、涌浪、混合浪场第一模态空间分布均呈现东北-西南走向的高值区分布,风浪场与海表风场具有较好的对应关系,而混合浪场则更多的是包含了涌浪的信息。(3)南海海表风场、风浪、涌浪、混合浪场存在3—3.75年的共同周期。南海的海表风场、风浪场与nino3指数存在的3.3年左右、5年左右的共同周期,涌浪场、混合浪场与nino3指数存在的3—4年左右的共同周期。 展开更多
关键词 ERA-40海浪再分析资料 南海 风浪 涌浪 厄尔尼诺 周期
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Delayed Impacts of the El Nio Episodes in the Central Pacific on the Summertime Climate Anomalies of Eastern China in 2003 and 2007 被引量:8
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作者 鲍名 韩荣青 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第3期553-563,共11页
In the summers of 2003 and 2007, eastern China suffered similar climate disasters with severe flooding in the Huaihe River valley and heat waves in the southern Yangtze River delta and South China. Using SST data and ... In the summers of 2003 and 2007, eastern China suffered similar climate disasters with severe flooding in the Huaihe River valley and heat waves in the southern Yangtze River delta and South China. Using SST data and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA along with reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR, the 2002/03 and 2006/07 E1 Nifio episodes in the central Pacific and their delayed impacts on the following early summertime climate anomalies of eastern China were analyzed. The possible physical progresses behaved as follows: Both of the moderate E1 Ninio episodes matured in the central equatorial Pacific during the early winter. The zonal wind anomalies near the sea surface of the west-central equatorial Pacific excited equatorial Kelvin waves propagating eastward and affected the evolution of the E1 Nifio episodes. From spring to early summer, the concurring anomalous easterly winds in the central equatorial Pacific and the end of upwelling Kelvin waves propagating eastward in the western equatorial Pacific, favored the equatorial warm water both of the SST and the subsurface temperature in the western Pacific. These conditions favored the warm state of the western equatorial Pacific in the early summer for both cases of 2003 and 2007. Due to the active convection in the western equatorial Pacific in the early summer and the weak warm SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific from spring to early summer, the convective activities in the western Pacific warm pool showed the pattern in which the anomalous strong convection only appeared over the southern regions of the tropical western Pacific warm pool, which effects the meridional shift of the western Pacific subtropical high in the summer. The physical progress of the delayed impacts of the E1 Nino episodes in the central equatorial Pacific and their decaying evolution on the climate anomalies in eastern China were interpreted through the key role of special pattern for the heat convection in the tropical western Pacific warm pool and the response of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. 展开更多
关键词 E1 Nino episodes climate impact eastern China
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The Influence of El Ni?o on MJO over the Equatorial Pacific 被引量:5
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作者 CHEN Xiong LI Chongyin TAN Yanke 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS 2015年第1期1-8,共8页
In this paper, the influence of E1 Nino event on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the equatorial Pacific is stud- ied by using reanalysis data and relevant numerical simulation results. It is clearly shown t... In this paper, the influence of E1 Nino event on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the equatorial Pacific is stud- ied by using reanalysis data and relevant numerical simulation results. It is clearly shown that E1 Nino can reduce the intensity of MJO. The kinetic energy of MJO over the equatorial Pacific is stronger before the occurrence of the E1 Nino event, but it is reduced rapidly after E1 v event outbreak, and the weakened MJO even can continue to the next summer. The convection over the cen- tral-western Pacific is weakened in E1 Nino winter. The positive anomalous OLR over the central-western Pacific has opposite variation in E1 Nino winter comparing to the non-ENSO cases. The vertical structure of MJO also affected by E1 Nino event, so the opposite direction features of the geopotential height and the zonal wind in upper and lower level troposphere for the MJO are not remarkable in the E1 Nino winter and tend to be barotropic features. El Nino event also has an influence on the eastward propa- gation of the MJO too. During E1 Nino winter, the eastward propagation of the MJO is not so regular and unanimous and there exists some eastward propagation, which is faster than that in non-ENSO case. Dynamic analyses suggest that positive SSTA (El Nino case) affects the atmospheric thickness over the equatorial Pacific and then the excited atmospheric wave-CISK mode is weakened, so that the intensity of MJO is reduced; the combining of the barotropic unstable mode in the atmosphere excited by external forcing (SSTA) and the original MJO may be an important reason for the MJO vertical structure tending to be barotropic during the E1 Nino. 展开更多
关键词 E1 Nino MJO INTENSITY vertical structure eastward propagation
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Initial Error-induced Optimal Perturbations in ENSO Predictions, as Derived from an Intermediate Coupled Model 被引量:6
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作者 Ling-Jiang TAO Rong-Hua ZHANG Chuan GAO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第6期791-803,共13页
The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (C... The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was em- ployed to study the largest initial error growth in the E1 Nino predictions of an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The optimal initial errors (as represented by CNOPs) in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and sea level anomalies (SLAs) were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nifia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of E1 Nino, the E1 Nino event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier (SPB) phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly, weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events. 展开更多
关键词 E1 Nino predictability initial errors intermediate coupled model spring predictability barrier
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Different Impact of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nio on the Duration of Sudden Stratospheric Warming 被引量:5
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作者 Yuanpu LI Wenshou TIAN 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第6期771-782,共12页
The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and the HadlSST dataset (1959-2014) are used to analyze the impact of two types of E1 Nino events, i.e., eastern Pacific E1 Nino (EP-E1 Nino) and central Pacific E1 Nino (CP-E1 N... The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and the HadlSST dataset (1959-2014) are used to analyze the impact of two types of E1 Nino events, i.e., eastern Pacific E1 Nino (EP-E1 Nino) and central Pacific E1 Nino (CP-E1 Nino) events, on the duration of major and minor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in Northern Hemisphere winter (November to February). Al- though the frequency of major and minor SSWs during different types of E1 Nino shows no distinct differences, the duration of both major and minor SSWs during CP-E1 Nino is shorter than that during EP-E1 Nino. The spatial distribution of geopo- tential height anomalies preceding major SSWs resembles the western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern, while the spatial distribution of geopotential height anomalies preceding minor SSWs bears similarity to the Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern. An enhancement of the strength of both wavenumber 1 and wavenumber 2 is found before major SSWs. Before minor SSWs, wavenumber 1 is also strengthened, but wavenumber 2 is weakened. The analysis also reveals that EP-E1 Nino tends to induce positive phases of PNA and WP teleconnections, while CP-E1 Nino induces negative-phase WP teleconnection. As the positive phases of the PNA and WP teleconnections are related to the strengthening of wavenum- bet 1, EP-E1 Nino causes an enhancement of wavenumber 1 in the high-latitude upper troposphere and an enhancement of the upward wave flux in the high-latitude stratosphere, accompanied by a negative anomaly in Eliassen-Palm flux divergence in the subpolar stratosphere, which accounts for the longer SSW duration during EP-E1 Nino than during CP-E1 Nino. 展开更多
关键词 SSW TELECONNECTION E1 Nino
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PERTURBED SOLUTION OF SEA-AIR OSCILLATOR FOR THE EL NI O/LA NI O-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION MECHANISM 被引量:5
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作者 莫嘉琪 王辉 林万涛 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2005年第4期710-714,共5页
A class of coupled system to oscillate of the E1 Nino/La Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions and asymptotic behavior of the solution for an EN... A class of coupled system to oscillate of the E1 Nino/La Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions and asymptotic behavior of the solution for an ENSO model are obtained. 展开更多
关键词 Nonlinear perturbation theory E1 Nino/La Nino-Southern oscillation model
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Environmental anomalies in the northeastern East China Sea during the last 3 000 years:implications for El Nio activity in the Holocene 被引量:2
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作者 常凤鸣 李铁刚 +1 位作者 庄丽华 阎军 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第1期190-200,共11页
To reconstruct the productivity changes for the last 10 500 a in the northeastern East China Sea (ECS), biogenic compounds (such as carbonate, organic carbon and opal), marine micropaleontological fossils (plankt... To reconstruct the productivity changes for the last 10 500 a in the northeastern East China Sea (ECS), biogenic compounds (such as carbonate, organic carbon and opal), marine micropaleontological fossils (planktonic foraminifera, benthic foraminifera, radiolarian and silicoflagellate) and the compositional characters of benthic foraminifera fauna analyses were carried out on a sediment core DOC082 obtained from the western slope of Okinawa Trough (29°13.93′N, 128°08.53′E; 1 128 m water depth). The long-term changes of biogenic and micropaleontological proxies display some similarities through the last 10 500 a, which show three different phases: lower values are recorded during the early and middle ttolocene (before about 4 000 a BP), followed by an abrupt and remarkable increase at about 4 000 a BP, the late Holocene (after about 3 000 a BP) is characterized by continuously high values. The multi-proxy data of paleoproductivity and percents of benthic foraminifera genera (Uvigerina and Bulimina) show that during the early and middle Holocene (10 500-4 000 a BP) productivity was relatively low with a sudden and distinct increase at about 4 000 a BP, and the late Holocene (3 400-0 a BP) is marked by significantly higher productivity. Also, the radiolarian-based sea surface temperature (SST) records reveal a distinct decline in SST in the late Holocene after 3 200 a BP, very different from the early and middle Holocene. For the last 3 000 a, the enhanced biological productivity and distinctly lower SST indicate a major change of oceanographic conditions in the northeastern ECS. These marine environmental anomalies are consistent with other paleoclimatic records for the late Holocene in the Chinese continent and its surrounding regions. After analyzing the mechanisms of modern productivity and SST changes in the northeastern ECS, and based on the climatic anomalies in the Chinese continent and variations in the Kuroshio Current during modern El Nino periods, we suggest that the anomalous environmental conditions in the northeastern ECS may imply intensified El Nino activity during the late Holocene. 展开更多
关键词 late Holocene environmental anomalies E1 Nino northeastern East China Sea PALEOPRODUCTIVITY sea-surface temperature
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Distribution of the tropical Pacific surface zonal wind anomaly and its relation with two types of El Nio 被引量:2
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作者 汪洋 陈锦年 王宏娜 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第5期1137-1152,共16页
E1 Nino events with an eastern Pacific pattern (EP) and central Pacific pattern (CP) were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF). Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decom... E1 Nino events with an eastern Pacific pattern (EP) and central Pacific pattern (CP) were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF). Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decomposition (RSVD) analyses were then carried out to study the relation between the surface zonal wind (SZW) anomalies and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A possible physical process for the CP E1 Nifio was proposed. For the EP E1 Nino, strong westerly anomalies that spread eastward continuously produce an anomalous ocean zonal convergence zone (ZCZ) centered on about 165°W. This SZW anomaly pattern favors poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator. For the CP E1Nino, westerly anomalies and the ZCZ are mainly confined to the western Pacific, and easterly anomalies blow in the eastern Pacific. This SZW anomaly pattern restrains poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator; however, there is an eastward Sverdrup transport at about 5°N, which favors the wanning of the north-eastern tropical Pacific. It is found that the slowness of eastward propagation of subsurface warm water (partly from the downwelling caused by Ekman convergence and the ZCZ) is due to the slowdown of the undercurrent in the central basin, and vertical advection in the central Pacific may be important in the formation and disappearance of the CP E1 Nifio. 展开更多
关键词 surface zonal wind anomaly CP (central Pacific) E1 Nino rotated empirical orthogonal function rotated singular value decomposition zonal convergence physical process
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The increased storage of suspended particulate matter in the upper water of the tropical Western Pacific during the 2015/2016 super El Nino event 被引量:2
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作者 Wei GAO Zhenyan WANG +1 位作者 Xuegang LI Haijun HUANG 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第5期1675-1689,共15页
The climate variability induced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)cycle drives significant changes in the physical state of the tropical Western Pacific,which has important impacts on the upper ocean carbon cyc... The climate variability induced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)cycle drives significant changes in the physical state of the tropical Western Pacific,which has important impacts on the upper ocean carbon cycle.During 2015-2016,a super El Nino event occurred in the equatorial Pacific.Suspended particulate matter(SPM)data and related environmental observations in the tropical Western Pacific were obtained during two cruses in Dec.2014 and 2015,which coincided with the early and peak stages of this super El Nino event.Compared with the marine environments in the tropical Western Pacific in Dec.2014,an obviously enhanced upwelling occurred in the Mindanao Dome region;the nitrate concentration in the euphotic zone almo st tripled;and the size,mass concentration,and volume concentration of SPM obviously increased in Dec.2015.The enhanced upwelling in the Mindanao Dome region carried cold but eutrophic water upward from the deep ocean to shallow depths,even into the euphotic zone,which disrupted the previously N-limited conditions and induced a remarkable increase in phytoplankton blooms in the euphotic zone.The se results reveal the mechanism of how nutrient-limited ecosystems in the tropical Western Pacific respond to super El Nino events.In the context of the ENSO cycle,if predicted changes in biogenic particles occur,the proportion of carbon storage in the tropical Western Pacific is estimated to be increased by more than 52%,ultimately affecting the regional and possibly even global carbon cycle.This paper highlights the prospect for long-term prediction of the impact of a super El Nino event on the global carbon cycle and has profound implications for understanding El Nino events. 展开更多
关键词 suspended particulate matter field observations tropical Western Pacific 2015/2016 super E1 Nino event ocean carbon cycle
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Impacts of Two Types of El Nio on Atmospheric Circulation in the Southern Hemisphere 被引量:2
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作者 孙丹 薛峰 周天军 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第6期1732-1742,共11页
Based on NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmo- spheric Research) reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010, the impacts of two types of E1 Nino on atmospheric circulation in the ... Based on NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmo- spheric Research) reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010, the impacts of two types of E1 Nino on atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are analyzed. It is shown thaL when a warming event occurs in the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP E1 Nino), there is a negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly in the east- ern Pacific and a positive one in the western Pacific. Besides, there exists a negative anomaly between 40°S and 60°S and a positive anomaly to the south of 60°S. When a warming event in the central Pacific (CP E1 Nino) occurs, there appears a negative SLP anomaly in the central Pacific and a positive SLP anomaly in the eastern and western Pacific, but the SLP anomalies are not so evident in the SH extratropics. In particular, the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern induced by the CP E1 Nino is located more northwestward, with a weaker anomaly compared with the EP E1 Nino. This difference is directly related with the different position of heating centers associated with the two types of E1 Nino events. Because the SST anomaly associated with CP E1 Nino is located more westward than that associated with EP El Nino, the related heating center tends to move westward and the response of SH atmospheric circulation to the tropical heating changes accordingly, thus exciting a different position of the PSA pattern. It is also noted that the local meridional cell plays a role in the SH high latitudes during EP E1 Nino. The anomalous ascending motion due to the enhancement of convection over the eastern Pacific leads to an enhancement of the local Hadley cell and the meridional cell in the middle and high latitudes, which in turn induces an anomalous descending motion and the related positive anomaly of geopotential height over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea. 展开更多
关键词 eastern Pacific E1 Nifio central Pacific E1 Nino atmospheric circulation Southern Hemisphere Pacific-South America pattern
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Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Zhejiang Province,East China:Past and Future 被引量:1
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作者 Feng Lihua Hong Weihu 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2007年第3期257-264,共8页
On the basis of large amount of historical and measured data, this paper analyzed the regional, periodic, frequency, continuing, and response characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang and proposed the concept... On the basis of large amount of historical and measured data, this paper analyzed the regional, periodic, frequency, continuing, and response characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang and proposed the conception of ratio of peak runoff. Main characteristics of droughts and floods in Zhejiang are as follows: 1) The western Zhejiang region is plum rain major control area, and the eastern coastal region of Zhejiang is typhoon major control area. 2) Within a long period in the future, Zhejiang will be in the long period that features droughts. 3) In Zhejiang the 17th century was frequent drought and flood period, the 16th, 19th, and 20th centuries were normal periods, while the 18th century was spasmodic drought and flood period. 4) The severe and medium floods in Zhejiang were all centered around the M-or m-year of the 11-year sunspot activity period. 5) There are biggish years of annual runoff occurred in E1 Nifio year (E) or the following year (E+1) in Zhejiang. The near future evolution trend of droughts and floods in Zhejiang is as follows: 1) Within a relatively long period in the future, Zhejiang Province will be in the long period of mostly drought years. 2) Between 1999 and 2009 this area will feature drought years mainly, while the period of 2010-2020 will feature flood years mostly. 3) Zhejiang has a good response to the sunspot activities, and the years around 2009, 2015, and 2020 must be given due attention, especially around 2020 there might be an extremely severe flood year in Zhejiang. 4) Floods in Zhejiang have good response to El Nifio events, in El Nifio year or the following year much attention must be paid to. And 5) In the future, the first, second, and third severe typhoon years in Zhejiang will be 2009. 2012. and 2015. resnectivelv. 展开更多
关键词 drought and flood sunspot activity E1 Nino event evolution trend Zhejiang Province
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Perturbed solution of sea-air oscillator for the El Nino/ La Nina-Southern Oscillation mechanism 被引量:1
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作者 ZHOU Xianchun LIN Yihua +1 位作者 WANG Hui MO Jiaqi 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2009年第3期1-4,共4页
A class of coupled system of the E1 Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic... A class of coupled system of the E1 Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic behavior of solution for corresponding problem is considered. 展开更多
关键词 nonlinear perturbation theory E1 Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation model
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On the Mechanism of the Locking of the El Nino Event Onset Phase to Boreal Spring 被引量:1
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作者 严邦良 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第5期741-750,共10页
The mechanism of the locking of the E1 Nino event onset phase to boreal spring (from April to June) in an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model is investigated. The results show that the seasonal variation of ... The mechanism of the locking of the E1 Nino event onset phase to boreal spring (from April to June) in an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model is investigated. The results show that the seasonal variation of the zonal wind anomaly over the equatorial Pacific associated with the seasonal variation of the ITCZ is the mechanism of the locking in the model. From January to March of the E1 Nino year, the western wind anomaly over the western equatorial Pacific can excite the downwelling Kelvin wave that propagates eastward to the eastern and middle Pacific by April to June. From April to December of the year before the E1 Nifio year, the eastern wind anomaly over the equatorial Pacific forces the downwelling Rossby waves that modulate the ENSO cycle. The modulation and the reflection at the western boundary modulate the time of the transition from the cool to the warm phase to September of the year before the E1 Nifio year and cause the strongest downwelling Kelvin wave from the reflected Rossby waves at the western boundary to arrive in the middle and eastern equatorial Pacific by April to June of the E1 Nino year. The superposition of these two kinds of downwelling Kelvin waves causes the El Nino event to tend to occur from April to June. 展开更多
关键词 ENSO cycle locking of the E1 Nino event onset phase ocean-atmosphere interaction
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REGIONAL DISCREPANCIES OF THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN WARMING ON NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY IN THE YEARS OF DECAYING EL NIO 被引量:1
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作者 J1N Shuang-long1, WU Shu-hui2, LIU Zheng-qi3, ZHANG Heng-zheng3, 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2018年第3期314-322,共9页
This study investigates the influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) warming on tropical cyclone(TC)genesis in different regions of the western North Pacific(WNP) from July to October(JASO) during the decaying El Nio.... This study investigates the influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) warming on tropical cyclone(TC)genesis in different regions of the western North Pacific(WNP) from July to October(JASO) during the decaying El Nio. The results show significant negative TC frequency anomalies localized in the southeastern WNP. Correlation analysis indicates that a warm sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the TIO strongly suppresses TC genesis south of 21°N and east of 140°E in JASO. Reduced TC genesis over the southeastern WNP results from a weak monsoon trough and divergence and subsidence anomalies associated with an equatorial baroclinic Kelvin wave. Moreover,suppressed convection in response to a cold local SSTA, induced by the increased northeasterly connected by the wind-evaporation-SST positive feedback mechanism, is found unfavorable for TC genesis. Positive TC genesis anomalies are observed over higher latitudinal regions(at around 21°N, 140°E) and the western WNP because of enhanced convection along the northern flank of the WNP anomalous anticyclone and low-level convergence,respectively. Although local modulation(e.g., local SST) could have greater dominance over TC activity at higher latitudes in certain anomalous years(e.g., 1988), a warm TIO SSTA can still suppress TC genesis in lower latitudinal regions of the WNP. A better understanding of the contributions of TIO warming could help improve seasonal TC predictions over different regions of the WNP in years of decaying El Nio. 展开更多
关键词 TYPHOON tropical Indian Ocean E1 Nino sea surface temperature anomaly
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Surface thermal centroid anomaly of the eastern equatorial Pacific as a unified Nio index
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作者 方明强 陈艳 +1 位作者 李洪平 吴立新 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第5期1129-1136,共8页
By analyzing the variability of global SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies, we propose a unified Nifio index using the surface thermal centroid anomaly of the region along the Pacific equator embraced by the 0.7... By analyzing the variability of global SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies, we propose a unified Nifio index using the surface thermal centroid anomaly of the region along the Pacific equator embraced by the 0.7~C contour line of the standard deviation of the SST anomalies and try to unify the traditional Nifio regions into a single entity. The unified Nifio region covers almost all of the traditional Nifio regions. The anomaly time series of the averaged SST over this region are closely correlated to historical Nifio indices. The anomaly time series of the zonal and meridional thermal centroid have close correlation with historical TNI (Trans-Nifio index) indices, showing differences among E1 Nifio (La Nifia) events. The meridional centroid anomaly suggests that areas of maximum temperature anomaly are moving meridionally (although slightly) with synchronous zonal movement. The zonal centroid anomalies of the unified Nifio region are found helpful in the classification of the Eastern Pacific (EP)/Central Pacific (CP) types of E1 Nifio events. More importantly, the zonal centroid anomaly shows that warm areas might move during a single warming/cooling phase. All the current Nifio indices can be well represented by a simple linear combination of unified Nifio indices, which suggests that the thermal anomaly (SSTA) and thermal centroid location anomaly of the unified Nifio region would yield a more complete image of each E1 Nifio/ La Nina event. 展开更多
关键词 E1 Nino La Nifia unified Nifio index thermal centroid
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Global influenza in cold phase of Pacific Decade Oscillation
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作者 YANG Donghong YANG Debin YANG Xuexiang 《Global Geology》 2010年第2期104-107,共4页
Based on the study of the cold phase of the Pacific Decade Oscillation, pandemic influenza is related to climate. The relation of low temperature, Pacific Decade Oscillation, strongest earthquake, Influenza, hurricane... Based on the study of the cold phase of the Pacific Decade Oscillation, pandemic influenza is related to climate. The relation of low temperature, Pacific Decade Oscillation, strongest earthquake, Influenza, hurricane and E1 Nino is researched in this study. In the cold period of Pacific Decade Oscillation, the strongest earthquake, hurricane with La Ni'na, Pandemic Influenza with E1 Nino will occur stronger and stronger. From 1950 to 1976, the strongest dust-storm is connected with Pandemic Influenza one by one. So, dust-storm is one of factors to spread pandemic influenza viruses. 展开更多
关键词 low temperature Pacific Decade Oscillation pandemic influenza strongest earthquake duststorm SUNSPOT E1 Nino La Nina
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BIFURCATION OF THE NORTH EQUATORIAL CURRENT DERIVED FROM ALTIMETRY IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN 被引量:30
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作者 WANG Qing-ye HU Dun-xin 《Journal of Hydrodynamics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2006年第5期620-626,共7页
The gridded (1/3°*1/3°) altimetry data from October 1992 through December 2004 were analyzed to study the seasonal and interannual variabilities of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) ... The gridded (1/3°*1/3°) altimetry data from October 1992 through December 2004 were analyzed to study the seasonal and interannual variabilities of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) at the surface in the western North Pacific Ocean. Calculations show that on annual average the bifurcation occurs at about 13.4°N at the surface. The geostrophic flow derived from Sea Surface Height (SSH) data shows that the southernmost latitude of the NEC bifurcation at the surface is about 12.9°N in June and the northernmost latitude is about 14.1°N in December. Correlation analyses between the bifurcation latitude and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOl) suggest that the bifurcation latitude is highly correlated with the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. During the E1 Nino years the bifurcation of the NEC takes place at higher latitudes and vice versa. 展开更多
关键词 bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current altimetry data Pacific Ocean North Equatorial Current (NEC) E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events
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