The time-mean and interannual variability of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon （IIE） was assessed using both Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model （MPI-ESM） and ECHAM5...The time-mean and interannual variability of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon （IIE） was assessed using both Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model （MPI-ESM） and ECHAM5/MPI-OM and by calculating diagnostics and skill metrics around the IIE area. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects by moving from ECHAM5/MPI-OM to MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM is more skillful than ECHAM5/MPI-OM in modeling the time-mean state and the extreme condition of the IIE. Though simulation of the interannual variability significantly deviates to some extent in both MPI-ESM and ECHAM5/MPI-OM, MPI-ESM-LR shows better skill in reflecting the relationship among sea surface temperature anomalies over the Pacific, circulation anomalies over East Asia, and liE variability. The temperature becomes warmer under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in comparison with the historical experiments, but the position of the liE and the key physical process in relation to the IIE variability almost remains the same, suggesting that the Indian summer monsoon tends to change in phase with the East Asian summer monsoon under each RCP scenario. The relatively realistic description of the physical processes modulated by terrain in MPI-ESM may be one of the most important reasons why MPI-ESM performs better in simulating the liE.展开更多
An ensemble-based assimilation method is proposed for correcting the subsurface temperature field when nudging the sea surface temperature(SST) observations into the Max Planck Institute(MPI) climate model,ECHAM5/MPI-...An ensemble-based assimilation method is proposed for correcting the subsurface temperature field when nudging the sea surface temperature(SST) observations into the Max Planck Institute(MPI) climate model,ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This method can project SST directly to subsurface according to model ensemble-based correlations between SST and subsurface temperature. Results from a 50 year(1960–2009) assimilation experiment show the method can improve the subsurface temperature field up to 300 m compared to the qualitycontrolled subsurface ocean temperature objective analyses(EN4), through reducing the biases of the thermal states, improving the thermocline structure, and reducing the root mean square(RMS) errors. Moreover, as most of the improvements concentrate over the upper 100 m, the ocean heat content in the upper 100 m(OHT100 m)is further adopted as a property to validate the performance of the ensemble-based correction method. The results show that RMS errors of the global OHT100 m convergent to one value after several times iteration,indicating this method can represent the relationship between SST and subsurface temperature fields well, and then improve the accuracy of the simulation in the subsurface temperature of the climate model.展开更多
Based on the daily observational precipitation data of 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin for 1960-2005,and the projected daily data of 79 grids from ECHAM5/MPI-OM in the 20th century,time series of precipitation...Based on the daily observational precipitation data of 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin for 1960-2005,and the projected daily data of 79 grids from ECHAM5/MPI-OM in the 20th century,time series of precipitation extremes which contain annual maximum(AM)and Munger index(MI)were constructed.The distribution feature of precipitation extremes was analyzed based on the two index series.Research results show that(1)the intensity and probability of extreme heavy precipitation are higher in the middle Mintuo River sub-catchment,the Dongting Lake area,the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River,and the southeastern Poyang Lake sub-catchment;whereas,the intensity and probability of drought events are higher in the mid-lower Jinsha River sub-catchment and the Jialing River sub-catchment;(2)compared with observational data,the averaged value of AM is higher but the deviation coefficient is lower in projected data,and the center of precipitation extremes moves northwards;(3)in spite of certain differences in the spatial distributions of observed and projected precipitation extremes,by applying General Extreme Value(GEV)and Wakeby(WAK)models with the method of L-Moment Estimator(LME)to the precipitation extremes,it is proved that WAK can simulate the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated from both observed and projected data quite well.The WAK could be an important function for estimating the precipitation extreme events in the Yangtze River basin under future climatic scenarios.展开更多
The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Aca...The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM). Land surface schemes in ECHAM5 are simple and do not provide an adequate representation of the vegetation canopy and snow/frozen soil processes. Two AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type experiments using ECHAM5 and ECHAM5-CoLM are run over 30 yr and the results are compared with reanalysis and observational data. It is found that the pattern of land surface temperature simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM is significantly improved relative to ECHAM5. Specifically, the cold bias over Eurasia is removed and the root-mean-square error is reduced in most regions. The seasonal variation in the zonal mean land surface temperature and the in situ soil temperature at 20-and 80-cm depths are both better simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM. ECHAM5-CoLM produces a more reasonable spatial pattern in the soil moisture content, whereas ECHAM5 predicts much drier soils. The seasonal cycle of soil moisture content from ECHAM5-CoLM is a better match to the observational data in six specific regions. ECHAM5-CoLM reproduces the observed spatial patterns of both sensible and latent heat fluxes. The strong positive bias in precipitation over land is reduced in ECHAM5-CoLM, especially over the southern Tibetan Plateau and middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the summer monsoon rainy season.展开更多
The interannual variations of rainfall over southwest China(SWC) during spring and its relationship with sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the Pacific are analyzed, based on monthly mean precipitation data f...The interannual variations of rainfall over southwest China(SWC) during spring and its relationship with sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the Pacific are analyzed, based on monthly mean precipitation data from 26 stations in SWC between 1961 and 2010, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data, and Hadley global SST data. Sensitivity tests are conducted to assess the response of precipitation in SWC to SSTAs over two key oceanic domains, using the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5. The interannual variation of rainfall over SWC in spring is very significant.There are strong negative(positive) correlation coefficients between the anomalous precipitation over SWC and SSTAs over the equatorial central Pacific(the mid-latitude Pacific) during spring. Numerical simulations show that local rainfall in the northwest of the equatorial central Pacific is suppressed, and a subtropical anticyclone circulation anomaly is produced, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the mid-latitude western Pacific occurs, when the equatorial Pacific SSTAs are in a cold phase in spring. Anomalous northerly winds appear in the northeastern part of SWC in the lower troposphere. Precipitation increases over the Maritime Continent of the western equatorial Pacific, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly appears in the northwest of the western equatorial Pacific. A trough over the Bay of Bengal enhances the southerly flow in the south of SWC. The trough also enhances the transport of moisture to SWC. The warm moisture intersects with anomalous cold air over the northeast of SWC, and so precipitation increases during spring. On the interannual time scale, the impacts of the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs on rainfall in SWC during spring are not significant, because the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are affected by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs; that is,the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are a feedback to the circulation anomaly caused by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375097)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘The time-mean and interannual variability of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon （IIE） was assessed using both Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model （MPI-ESM） and ECHAM5/MPI-OM and by calculating diagnostics and skill metrics around the IIE area. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects by moving from ECHAM5/MPI-OM to MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM is more skillful than ECHAM5/MPI-OM in modeling the time-mean state and the extreme condition of the IIE. Though simulation of the interannual variability significantly deviates to some extent in both MPI-ESM and ECHAM5/MPI-OM, MPI-ESM-LR shows better skill in reflecting the relationship among sea surface temperature anomalies over the Pacific, circulation anomalies over East Asia, and liE variability. The temperature becomes warmer under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in comparison with the historical experiments, but the position of the liE and the key physical process in relation to the IIE variability almost remains the same, suggesting that the Indian summer monsoon tends to change in phase with the East Asian summer monsoon under each RCP scenario. The relatively realistic description of the physical processes modulated by terrain in MPI-ESM may be one of the most important reasons why MPI-ESM performs better in simulating the liE.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Programme of China [grant number 2017YFA0604201]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41576019 and 41876012]
基金The National Key R&D Program of China under contract No. 2017YFA0604201the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41876012 and 41861144015.
文摘An ensemble-based assimilation method is proposed for correcting the subsurface temperature field when nudging the sea surface temperature(SST) observations into the Max Planck Institute(MPI) climate model,ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This method can project SST directly to subsurface according to model ensemble-based correlations between SST and subsurface temperature. Results from a 50 year(1960–2009) assimilation experiment show the method can improve the subsurface temperature field up to 300 m compared to the qualitycontrolled subsurface ocean temperature objective analyses(EN4), through reducing the biases of the thermal states, improving the thermocline structure, and reducing the root mean square(RMS) errors. Moreover, as most of the improvements concentrate over the upper 100 m, the ocean heat content in the upper 100 m(OHT100 m)is further adopted as a property to validate the performance of the ensemble-based correction method. The results show that RMS errors of the global OHT100 m convergent to one value after several times iteration,indicating this method can represent the relationship between SST and subsurface temperature fields well, and then improve the accuracy of the simulation in the subsurface temperature of the climate model.
文摘Based on the daily observational precipitation data of 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin for 1960-2005,and the projected daily data of 79 grids from ECHAM5/MPI-OM in the 20th century,time series of precipitation extremes which contain annual maximum(AM)and Munger index(MI)were constructed.The distribution feature of precipitation extremes was analyzed based on the two index series.Research results show that(1)the intensity and probability of extreme heavy precipitation are higher in the middle Mintuo River sub-catchment,the Dongting Lake area,the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River,and the southeastern Poyang Lake sub-catchment;whereas,the intensity and probability of drought events are higher in the mid-lower Jinsha River sub-catchment and the Jialing River sub-catchment;(2)compared with observational data,the averaged value of AM is higher but the deviation coefficient is lower in projected data,and the center of precipitation extremes moves northwards;(3)in spite of certain differences in the spatial distributions of observed and projected precipitation extremes,by applying General Extreme Value(GEV)and Wakeby(WAK)models with the method of L-Moment Estimator(LME)to the precipitation extremes,it is proved that WAK can simulate the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated from both observed and projected data quite well.The WAK could be an important function for estimating the precipitation extreme events in the Yangtze River basin under future climatic scenarios.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFB0200801,2017YFA0604300,and 2018YFC1507003)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100300)Basic Research Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2017Y004)
文摘The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM). Land surface schemes in ECHAM5 are simple and do not provide an adequate representation of the vegetation canopy and snow/frozen soil processes. Two AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type experiments using ECHAM5 and ECHAM5-CoLM are run over 30 yr and the results are compared with reanalysis and observational data. It is found that the pattern of land surface temperature simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM is significantly improved relative to ECHAM5. Specifically, the cold bias over Eurasia is removed and the root-mean-square error is reduced in most regions. The seasonal variation in the zonal mean land surface temperature and the in situ soil temperature at 20-and 80-cm depths are both better simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM. ECHAM5-CoLM produces a more reasonable spatial pattern in the soil moisture content, whereas ECHAM5 predicts much drier soils. The seasonal cycle of soil moisture content from ECHAM5-CoLM is a better match to the observational data in six specific regions. ECHAM5-CoLM reproduces the observed spatial patterns of both sensible and latent heat fluxes. The strong positive bias in precipitation over land is reduced in ECHAM5-CoLM, especially over the southern Tibetan Plateau and middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the summer monsoon rainy season.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41575083)National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(2015CB453200)
文摘The interannual variations of rainfall over southwest China(SWC) during spring and its relationship with sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the Pacific are analyzed, based on monthly mean precipitation data from 26 stations in SWC between 1961 and 2010, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data, and Hadley global SST data. Sensitivity tests are conducted to assess the response of precipitation in SWC to SSTAs over two key oceanic domains, using the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5. The interannual variation of rainfall over SWC in spring is very significant.There are strong negative(positive) correlation coefficients between the anomalous precipitation over SWC and SSTAs over the equatorial central Pacific(the mid-latitude Pacific) during spring. Numerical simulations show that local rainfall in the northwest of the equatorial central Pacific is suppressed, and a subtropical anticyclone circulation anomaly is produced, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the mid-latitude western Pacific occurs, when the equatorial Pacific SSTAs are in a cold phase in spring. Anomalous northerly winds appear in the northeastern part of SWC in the lower troposphere. Precipitation increases over the Maritime Continent of the western equatorial Pacific, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly appears in the northwest of the western equatorial Pacific. A trough over the Bay of Bengal enhances the southerly flow in the south of SWC. The trough also enhances the transport of moisture to SWC. The warm moisture intersects with anomalous cold air over the northeast of SWC, and so precipitation increases during spring. On the interannual time scale, the impacts of the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs on rainfall in SWC during spring are not significant, because the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are affected by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs; that is,the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are a feedback to the circulation anomaly caused by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs.
