Long-Term Trend of Temperature Derived by Statistical Downscaling Based on EOF Analysis

This study analyzes the ability of statistical downscaling models in simulating the long-term trend of temperature and associated causes at 48 stations in northern China in January and July 1961-2006. The statistical downscaling models are established through multiple stepwise regressions of predictor principal components （PCs）. The predictors in this study include temperature at 850 hPa （T850）, and the combination of geopotential height and temperature at 850 hPa （H850＋T850）. For the combined predictors, Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis of the two combined fields is conducted. The modeling results from HadCM3 and ECHAM5 under 20C3M and SERS A1B scenarios are applied to the statistical downscaling models to construct local present and future climate change scenarios for each station, during which the projected EOF analysis and the common EOF analysis are utilized to derive EOFs and PCs from the two general circulation models （GCMs）. The results show that （1） the trend of temperature in July is associated with the first EOF pattern of the two combined fields, not with the EOF pattern of the regional warming; （2） although HadCM3 and ECHAM5 have simulated a false long-term trend of temperature, the statistical downscaling method is able to well reproduce a correct long-term trend of temperature in northern China due to the successful simulation of the trend of main PCs of the GCM predictors; （3） when the two-field combination and the projected EOF analysis are used, temperature change scenarios have a similar seasonal variation to the observed one; and （4） compared with the results of the common EOF analysis, those of the projected EOF analysis have been much more strongly determined by the observed large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

CHARACTERIZATION AND CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION IN DRY-WET CONDITIONS IN AUTUMN IN SOUTHWEST CHINA

Based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 97 stations in Southwest China(SW China) from1960 to 2009, a dry-wet index is calculated. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of dry-wet conditions,precipitation and temperature are studied. Then the abnormal atmospheric circulation characteristics are discussed using reanalysis data. The results show that SW China has exhibited an overall trend of autumnal drought since the late1980 s, and this drought trend became more significant early in the 2000 s, especially in the eastern SW China. Autumnal dry-wet variation in southwestern China showed two major modes: consistent change across the entire region and opposing changes in the eastern and western regions. The spatial distribution of dry-wet anomalies was more significantly affected by precipitation, while temporal variation in dry-wet conditions was more strongly influenced by temperature. The former mode is affected by the anomalies of the precedent SST near the Western Pacific Warm Pool,the Western Pacific Subtropical High, the East Asian Trough and the South Trough. The latter mode is related to the wind anomalies in the eastern SW China and the vertical movement in the western and eastern SW China. These are the main influencing factors for the autumn dry-wet variation in SW China, which are of great significance to the prediction of drought.

Spatio-temporal variability of surface chlorophyll a in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea based on reconstructions of satellite data of 2001-2020

Chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration is a primary indicator for marine environmental monitoring.The spatio-temporal variations of sea surface Chl-a concentration in the Yellow Sea(YS)and the East China Sea(ECS)in 2001-2020 were investigated by reconstructing the MODIS Level 3 products with the data interpolation empirical orthogonal function(DINEOF)method.The reconstructed results by interpolating the combined MODIS daily+8-day datasets were found better than those merely by interpolating daily or 8-day data.Chl-a concentration in the YS and the ECS reached its maximum in spring,with blooms occurring,decreased in summer and autumn,and increased in late autumn and early winter.By performing empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition of the reconstructed data fields and correlation analysis with several potential environmental factors,we found that the sea surface temperature(SST)plays a significant role in the seasonal variation of Chl a,especially during spring and summer.The increase of SST in spring and the upper-layer nutrients mixed up during the last winter might favor the occurrence of spring blooms.The high sea surface temperature(SST)throughout the summer would strengthen the vertical stratification and prevent nutrients supply from deep water,resulting in low surface Chl-a concentrations.The sea surface Chl-a concentration in the YS was found decreased significantly from 2012 to 2020,which was possibly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).

Estimating the Retrievability of Temperature Profiles from Satellite Infrared Measurements

A method is developed to assess retrievability, namely the retrieval potential for atmospheric temperature profiles, from satellite infrared measurements in clear-sky conditions. This technique is based upon generalized linear inverse theory and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Utilizing the NCEP global temperature reanalysis data in January and July from 1999 to 2003, the retrievabilities obtained with the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder （AIRS） and the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder/3 （HIRS/3） sounding channel data are derived respectively for each standard pressure level on a global scale. As an incidental result of this study, the optimum truncation number in the method of generalized linear inverse is deduced too. The results show that the retrievabilities of temperature obtained with the two datasets are similar in spatial distribution and seasonal change characteristics. As for the vertical distribution, the retrievabilities are low in the upper and lower atmosphere, and high between 400 hPa and 850 hPa. For the geographical distribution, the retrievabilities are low in the low-latitude oceanic regions and in some regions in Antarctica, and relatively high in mid-high latitudes and continental regions. Compared with the HIRS/3 data, the retrievability obtained with the AIRS data can be improved by an amount between 0.15 and 0.40.

On the Differences in the Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability between Western and Eastern Central Africa: Case of 25 - 70-Day Oscillations

The intraseasonal timescale is critical in Central Africa, because the resources of the region are highly rainfall dependent. In this paper, we use 1DD GPCP rainfall product to investigate the differences in the space-time structures of the 25 - 70-day intraseasonal variability of rainfall, over the Western Central Africa (WCA) and the Eastern Central Africa (ECA), with different climate features. The results of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) analysis have shown that the amount of variance explained by the leading EOFs is greater in ECA (58.4%) than in WCA (49.8%). For both WCA and ECA, the power spectra of the Principal Components (PCs) peaked around 40 days, indicating a MJO signal. The seasonality of ISO is evident, but this seasonality is much noticeable in ECA where almost 80% of the total yearly ISO power occurs during November-April season, against only around 60% for WCA. Moreover, the lagged cross correlations computed between WCA and ECA PCs time series showed that most of the WCA PCs led ECA PCs time series with a timescale of 8 - 12 days, revealing that the eastward propagation could potentially be the relationship between WCA and ECA modes. The interannual variations in the ISO activity are weak in WCA, when compared with ECA where the signal exhibits larger interannual variations, quite linked with ENSO.

Spatial Distribution and Temporal Variation of the Winter Wheat Late Frost Disaster in Henan,China

The winter wheat late frost disaster（WFD） occurs mainly in the Yellow and Huaihe River area,of which Henan Province covers the most part.Henan is the major area of wheat production in China,but it is severely hit by the WFD.In this study,we construct a WFD index based on the minimum temperature and the winter wheat development period（WDP）.The WFD degrees and days at 30 agrometeorological stations in Henan Province during the period of 1981-2004 are calculated.For the large-scale temporal variation analysis of WFD,the 24-yr WDP observation series is relatively short,so it is expanded by using the relation between the turning green date of winter wheat and the 5-day running mean temperature and that between the stem elongation phase and the effective cumulative temperature above a critical value of 2.5 ℃.The WFD data are also expanded for the last 50 years and are analyzed by using the empirical orthogonal function（EOF） and the Morlet wavelet methods.Characteristics in the spatial distribution and temporal variation of WFD are revealed.The results show that the frequency of WFD is generally high,exceeding 40% in parts of Henan,and exhibits a rising trend in the period of 1970-1990.The variation trend of WFD degrees is similar to that of WFD days,and the areas with higher WFD degrees coincide the areas with more WFD days.Moreover,the WFD degree has a greater impact on the winter wheat yield than the WFD days.The areas with high WFD degrees lie in the southeast and southwest of Henan,and the areas with low WFD degrees lie in the south of the Huaihe River and parts of western Henan.Temporal variations of the first and second EOF modes of the WFD degree display 16-and quasi-22-yr periodicities,respectively.The areas of high（low） WFD frequency are distributed in the northern Henan and the southwest border of Henan（the northeast Henan and the middle part of southwest Henan）.The temporal variation of the first（second） EOF mode of WFD days exhibits a periodicity（periodicities） of quasi-4 yr（quasi-3 and quasi-6-7 yr）.

VARIATIONS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVER PACIFIC AND INDIAN OCEANS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON COLD SUMMER IN EAST ASIA

An EOF analysis was performed to investigate the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) of Pacific and Indian Oceans.Result shows that the distribution of SST anomaly exhibits a distinct anticorrelation pattern between Northwest and Southeast Pacific,as well as between Northwest Pacific and the Arabian Sea.It also shows that the sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly between North Pacific and North Indian Oceans is of a seesaw pattern,which we named the North Paci- fic and North Indian Ocean Oscillation (PIO).Such a phenomenon is closely correlated with the cold summer in East Asia.

Influences of the Three Gorges Dam in China on Precipitation over Surrounding Regions

Impacts of the Three Gorges Dam（TGD） in China on the regional pattern and annual amount of precipitation around the Three Gorges Reservoir（TGR） are examined by comparing observations before and after the operation of TGD（1984–2003 and 2004–13）. Empirical orthogonal function（EOF） analysis of the annual precipitation anomalies clearly indicates that the land-use change associated with the construction of TGD has not significantly changed the precipitation pattern. To investigate the impacts of TGD on the rainfall amount, we compare the relative variations of atmospheric variables related to precipitation formation in three spatial bands： over TGR, near TGR, and far from TGR. It is found that the differences in annual rainfall over TGD between the two periods before and after the operation of TGD are small, suggesting a weak impact of TGD on the rainfall amount. The TGD water level increased from 66 m before June 2003 to 175 m after 2010, and this may have slightly reduced precipitation on the local scale.