Digital Agriculture is one of the important applications of Digital Earth.As the global climate changes and food security becomes an increasingly important issue,agriculture drought comes to the focus of attention.Chi...Digital Agriculture is one of the important applications of Digital Earth.As the global climate changes and food security becomes an increasingly important issue,agriculture drought comes to the focus of attention.China is a typical monsoon climate country as well as an agricultural country with the world’s largest population.The East Asian monsoon has had a tremendous impact upon agricultural production.Therefore,a maize drought disaster risk assessment,in line with the requirements of sustainable development of agriculture,is important for ensuring drought disaster reduction and food security.Meteorology,soil,land use,and agro-meteorological observation information of the research area were collected,and based on the concept framework of‘hazard-inducing factors assessment(hazard)-vulnerability assessment of hazard-affected body(vulner-ability curve)-risk assessment(risk),’importing crop model EPIC(Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator),using crop model simulation and digital mapping techniques,quantitative assessment of spatio-temporal distribution of maize drought in China was done.The results showed that:in terms of 2,5,10,and 20 year return periods,the overall maize drought risk decreased gradually from northwest to southeast in the maize planting areas.With the 20 year return period,high risk value regions(drought loss rate]0.5)concentrate in the irrigated maize region of Northwest china,ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in Northern China,Hetao Irrigation Area,and north-central area of North China Plain,accounting for 6.41%of the total maize area.These results can provide a scientific basis for the government’s decision-making in risk management and drought disaster prevention in China.展开更多
Climate change-induced drought poses a serious negative impact on global crop production and food security.The Huang Huai Hai(HHH)Plain,one of the most important grain production areas in China,is heavenly stricken by...Climate change-induced drought poses a serious negative impact on global crop production and food security.The Huang Huai Hai(HHH)Plain,one of the most important grain production areas in China,is heavenly stricken by drought.Motivated by formulating drought risk prevention strategies that adapt to climate change on the HHH Plain,therefore,the present study aims to quantitatively evaluate the winter wheat drought risk under multiple climate scenarios using the Environmental Policy Impact Climate(EPIC)model.Based on the well-validated EPIC model,the drought hazard intensity(dHI),physical vulnerability(pV),and drought risk(dR)of the HHH Plain from 2010 to 2099 are assessed.Temporally,the dR showed an increasing trend in the long term,the high dR areas increased by 0.63%and 1.18%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.Spatially,dR showed a pattern of high in the south and low in the north whether under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenario.Comparatively,the dR was 0.211 under the RCP4.5 scenario which was slightly higher than that under the RCP8.5 scenario,i.e.0.207.The Huanghuai Plain agricultural subregion will be a high dHI-pV-dR region.The temperature increase might be the main factor affecting the wheat drought risk.展开更多
In this paper, authors established a farmer crop selection model（FCS） for the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang of the Northeast China. With linking to the environmental policy integrated climate m...In this paper, authors established a farmer crop selection model（FCS） for the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang of the Northeast China. With linking to the environmental policy integrated climate model（EPIC）, the simulated results of FCS model for maize, rice and soybean were spatialized with 1 km×1 km grids to obtain cropping pattern. The reference map of spatial distribution for the three staple crops acquired by remote sensing imageries was applied to validate the simulated cropping pattern. The results showed that（1） the total simulation accuracy for the study area was 78.62%, which proved simulation method was applicable and feasible;（2） simulation accuracy for Jilin Province was the highest among the three provinces with a rate of 82.45% since its simple cropping system and not complex topography;（3） simulation accuracy for maize was the best among the three staple crops with a ratio of 81.14% because the study area is very suitable for maize growth. We hope this study could provide the reference for cropping pattern forecasting and decision-making.展开更多
基金by National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(No.2006BAD20B03)Special Grant for Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases(2008ZX10004-012).
文摘Digital Agriculture is one of the important applications of Digital Earth.As the global climate changes and food security becomes an increasingly important issue,agriculture drought comes to the focus of attention.China is a typical monsoon climate country as well as an agricultural country with the world’s largest population.The East Asian monsoon has had a tremendous impact upon agricultural production.Therefore,a maize drought disaster risk assessment,in line with the requirements of sustainable development of agriculture,is important for ensuring drought disaster reduction and food security.Meteorology,soil,land use,and agro-meteorological observation information of the research area were collected,and based on the concept framework of‘hazard-inducing factors assessment(hazard)-vulnerability assessment of hazard-affected body(vulner-ability curve)-risk assessment(risk),’importing crop model EPIC(Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator),using crop model simulation and digital mapping techniques,quantitative assessment of spatio-temporal distribution of maize drought in China was done.The results showed that:in terms of 2,5,10,and 20 year return periods,the overall maize drought risk decreased gradually from northwest to southeast in the maize planting areas.With the 20 year return period,high risk value regions(drought loss rate]0.5)concentrate in the irrigated maize region of Northwest china,ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in Northern China,Hetao Irrigation Area,and north-central area of North China Plain,accounting for 6.41%of the total maize area.These results can provide a scientific basis for the government’s decision-making in risk management and drought disaster prevention in China.
基金This research is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41877521,41271515]the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2016YFA0602402].
文摘Climate change-induced drought poses a serious negative impact on global crop production and food security.The Huang Huai Hai(HHH)Plain,one of the most important grain production areas in China,is heavenly stricken by drought.Motivated by formulating drought risk prevention strategies that adapt to climate change on the HHH Plain,therefore,the present study aims to quantitatively evaluate the winter wheat drought risk under multiple climate scenarios using the Environmental Policy Impact Climate(EPIC)model.Based on the well-validated EPIC model,the drought hazard intensity(dHI),physical vulnerability(pV),and drought risk(dR)of the HHH Plain from 2010 to 2099 are assessed.Temporally,the dR showed an increasing trend in the long term,the high dR areas increased by 0.63%and 1.18%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.Spatially,dR showed a pattern of high in the south and low in the north whether under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenario.Comparatively,the dR was 0.211 under the RCP4.5 scenario which was slightly higher than that under the RCP8.5 scenario,i.e.0.207.The Huanghuai Plain agricultural subregion will be a high dHI-pV-dR region.The temperature increase might be the main factor affecting the wheat drought risk.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41001049, 2011–2013)the China Regional Arable Land Resources Changes and its Warning-A Case Study in Northeast China, Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2004DIB3J092, 2003–2008)
文摘In this paper, authors established a farmer crop selection model（FCS） for the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang of the Northeast China. With linking to the environmental policy integrated climate model（EPIC）, the simulated results of FCS model for maize, rice and soybean were spatialized with 1 km×1 km grids to obtain cropping pattern. The reference map of spatial distribution for the three staple crops acquired by remote sensing imageries was applied to validate the simulated cropping pattern. The results showed that（1） the total simulation accuracy for the study area was 78.62%, which proved simulation method was applicable and feasible;（2） simulation accuracy for Jilin Province was the highest among the three provinces with a rate of 82.45% since its simple cropping system and not complex topography;（3） simulation accuracy for maize was the best among the three staple crops with a ratio of 81.14% because the study area is very suitable for maize growth. We hope this study could provide the reference for cropping pattern forecasting and decision-making.
