能源投入回报(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)在1984年正式提出后,受全球能源生产放缓、油价剧烈波动等因素影响,受到越来越多的关注。国外学者进行了深入研究包括测算常规化石能源、非常规化石能源以及可再生能源等的EROI值,但国...能源投入回报(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)在1984年正式提出后,受全球能源生产放缓、油价剧烈波动等因素影响,受到越来越多的关注。国外学者进行了深入研究包括测算常规化石能源、非常规化石能源以及可再生能源等的EROI值,但国内相关研究甚少,因此,本文主要目的是通过系统分析EROI研究现状和趋势为国内学者研究提供参考。本文总结了目前国内外已测算出的常规油气、页岩气、生物能等的EROI值,发现化石能源EROI呈现下降趋势,新能源的EROI值较常规化石能源明显偏低。未来需要进一步研究的领域主要包括:非常规能源和新能源EROI值的测算;EROI与传统能源评价方法的结合;考虑环境破坏所产生能源成本下EROI的计算;考虑技术进步等因素下能源消耗的预测;研究EROI与经济发展、生活水平等方面关系。展开更多
This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil productio...This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year(or 9.6 EJ/year),in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around350 Bcm/year(or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year(or 91.9 EJ/year)around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI(energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.展开更多
以往油气供应问题的研究多从最终能源总产出出发,没有考虑油气生产中的能源投入变化引起的能源净产出变化,而净能源产出才是最终被人类社会利用的能源总量。在对中国能源投入回报值(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)计算与中国未来油...以往油气供应问题的研究多从最终能源总产出出发,没有考虑油气生产中的能源投入变化引起的能源净产出变化,而净能源产出才是最终被人类社会利用的能源总量。在对中国能源投入回报值(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)计算与中国未来油气总产量预测的基础上,通过为中国油气开采业EROI未来走势设定不同情景,研究中国未来油气净产出。从总产量来看,未来中国油气总产量依然有较大潜力;而从净能源角度来看,油气总量的峰值与净能源的峰值并不重叠,油气总量的显性增高可能因为EROI的降低而造成实际上净能源的降低。因此,中国在关注未来油气总产量的同时,应密切关注油气开采业的EROI及净产量,以合理规划未来石油开采量,并积极寻找高EROI替代能源。展开更多
Concerns about China’s energy security have escalated because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, so it is necessary to calculate the availability of domestic oil and gas resources and China’s ...Concerns about China’s energy security have escalated because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, so it is necessary to calculate the availability of domestic oil and gas resources and China’s ability to obtain foreign energy through trade. In this work,the calculation was done by using the energy return on investment（EROI） method. The results showed that the EROIstnd（i.e., standard EROI） of China’s oil and gas extraction decreased from approximately 17.3：1 in 1986 to 8.4：1 in 2003, but it increased to 12.2：1 in 2013. From a company-level perspective, the EROIstnddiffered for different companies and was in the range of（8–12）：1. The EROI2,d（EROI considering energy outputs after processed and direct energy inputs） for different companies was in the range of（3–7）：1. The EROI of imported oil（EROIIO）declined from 14.8：1 in 1998 to approximately 4.8：1 in 2014, and the EROI of imported natural gas（EROIING）declined from 16.7：1 in 2009 to 8.6：1 in 2014. In 2015, the EROIIO and EROIING showed a slight increase due to decreasing import prices. In general, this paper suggests that from a net energy perspective, it has become more difficult for China to obtain oil and gas from both domestic production and imports. China is experiencing an EROI decline, which demonstrates the risk in the use of unsustainable fossil resources.展开更多
Gas hydrates now are expected to be one of the most important future unconventional energy resources. In this paper, researches on gas hydrate exploitation in laboratory and field were reviewed and discussed from the ...Gas hydrates now are expected to be one of the most important future unconventional energy resources. In this paper, researches on gas hydrate exploitation in laboratory and field were reviewed and discussed from the aspects of energy efficiency. Different exploiting methods and different types of hydrate reservoir were selected to study their effects on energy efficiencies. Both laboratory studies and field tests have shown that the improved technologies can help to increase efficiency for gas hydrate exploitation. And it also showed the trend that gas hydrate exploitation started to change from permafrost to marine. Energy efficiency ratio （EER） and energy return on energy invested （EROI） were introduced as an indicator of efficiency for natural gas hydrate exploitation. An energy-efficient hydrate production process, called ＂Hydrate Chain Energy System （HCES）＂, including treatment of flue gas, replacement of CH4 with CO2, separation of CO2 from CH4, and storage and transportation of CH4 in hydrate form, was proposed for future natural gas hydrate exploitation. In the meanwhile, some problems, such as mechanism of C02 replacement, mechanism of CO2 separation, CH4 storage and transportation are also needed to be solved for increasing the energy efficiency of gas hydrate exploitation.展开更多
The studies and development of coal seam gas（CSG） have been conducted for more than 30 years in China, but few of China＇s CSG projects have achieved large-scale commercial success; faced with the boom of shale gas,...The studies and development of coal seam gas（CSG） have been conducted for more than 30 years in China, but few of China＇s CSG projects have achieved large-scale commercial success; faced with the boom of shale gas, some investors are beginning to lose patience and confidence in CSG. China currently faces the following question： Should the government continue to vigorously support the development of the CSG industry？ To provide a reference for policy makers and investors, this paper calculates the EROI_（stnd）[a standardized energy return on investment（EROI） method], EROI_（ide）（the maximum theoretical EROI）, EROI_（3,i）（EROI considering the energy investment in transport）, and EROI_（3,1＋e）（EROI with environmental inputs） of a single vertical CSG well in the Fanzhuang CSG project in the Qinshui Basin. The energy payback time（EPT） and the greenhouse gas（GHG） emissions of the CSG systems are also calculated. The results show that over a 15-year lifetime, EROI_（stnd）, EROI_（ide）, EROI_（3,1）, and EROI_（3,1＋e）are expected to deliver EROIs of approximately11：1, 20：1, 7：1, and 6：1, respectively. The EPT within different boundaries is no more than 2 years, and the life-cycle GHG emissions are approximately 18.8 million kg CO_2 equivalent. The relatively high EROI and short EPT indicate that the government should take more positive measures to promote the development of the CSG industry.展开更多
The concern on climate change and on the limitations of fossil fuels is leading to the promotion of renewable-based energy options. However, the assessment of the energy profitability of a technology is still a contro...The concern on climate change and on the limitations of fossil fuels is leading to the promotion of renewable-based energy options. However, the assessment of the energy profitability of a technology is still a controversial topic, especially when renewable-based systems are compared with non-renewable ones and when the depletion of the stocks of available resources is not accounted properly. As a matter of fact, some popular energy indicators do not seem to cover all the aspects of the problem, with the risk of drawing ambiguous conclusions. A set of life cycle-based indicators is proposed in order to establish a more reliable approach to the assessment of energy products which decouples the different contributions given by renewable and non-renewable resources. The proposed set of indicators has been quantified for different groups of energy products and compared with an energy indicator frequently used (i.e. EROI). A coherent assessment of the depletion of energy resources and of the energy profitability of the products is presented. The indicators could even contribute to understand the feasibility of energy projects and plans by evaluating their impact on the stock of energy resources.展开更多
文摘能源投入回报(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)在1984年正式提出后,受全球能源生产放缓、油价剧烈波动等因素影响,受到越来越多的关注。国外学者进行了深入研究包括测算常规化石能源、非常规化石能源以及可再生能源等的EROI值,但国内相关研究甚少,因此,本文主要目的是通过系统分析EROI研究现状和趋势为国内学者研究提供参考。本文总结了目前国内外已测算出的常规油气、页岩气、生物能等的EROI值,发现化石能源EROI呈现下降趋势,新能源的EROI值较常规化石能源明显偏低。未来需要进一步研究的领域主要包括:非常规能源和新能源EROI值的测算;EROI与传统能源评价方法的结合;考虑环境破坏所产生能源成本下EROI的计算;考虑技术进步等因素下能源消耗的预测;研究EROI与经济发展、生活水平等方面关系。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71503264,71373285,71303258)Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China(Grant Nos.15YJC630121,13YJC630148)+1 种基金Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(No.2462014YJRC024)the Major Program of the National Social Science Found of China(Grant No.13&ZD159)
文摘This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year(or 9.6 EJ/year),in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around350 Bcm/year(or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year(or 91.9 EJ/year)around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI(energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.
文摘以往油气供应问题的研究多从最终能源总产出出发,没有考虑油气生产中的能源投入变化引起的能源净产出变化,而净能源产出才是最终被人类社会利用的能源总量。在对中国能源投入回报值(Energy Return on Investment,EROI)计算与中国未来油气总产量预测的基础上,通过为中国油气开采业EROI未来走势设定不同情景,研究中国未来油气净产出。从总产量来看,未来中国油气总产量依然有较大潜力;而从净能源角度来看,油气总量的峰值与净能源的峰值并不重叠,油气总量的显性增高可能因为EROI的降低而造成实际上净能源的降低。因此,中国在关注未来油气总产量的同时,应密切关注油气开采业的EROI及净产量,以合理规划未来石油开采量,并积极寻找高EROI替代能源。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71273277)the Philosophy and Social Sciences Major Research Project of the Ministry of Education(No.11JZD048)
文摘Concerns about China’s energy security have escalated because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, so it is necessary to calculate the availability of domestic oil and gas resources and China’s ability to obtain foreign energy through trade. In this work,the calculation was done by using the energy return on investment（EROI） method. The results showed that the EROIstnd（i.e., standard EROI） of China’s oil and gas extraction decreased from approximately 17.3：1 in 1986 to 8.4：1 in 2003, but it increased to 12.2：1 in 2013. From a company-level perspective, the EROIstnddiffered for different companies and was in the range of（8–12）：1. The EROI2,d（EROI considering energy outputs after processed and direct energy inputs） for different companies was in the range of（3–7）：1. The EROI of imported oil（EROIIO）declined from 14.8：1 in 1998 to approximately 4.8：1 in 2014, and the EROI of imported natural gas（EROIING）declined from 16.7：1 in 2009 to 8.6：1 in 2014. In 2015, the EROIIO and EROIING showed a slight increase due to decreasing import prices. In general, this paper suggests that from a net energy perspective, it has become more difficult for China to obtain oil and gas from both domestic production and imports. China is experiencing an EROI decline, which demonstrates the risk in the use of unsustainable fossil resources.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51176051 and 51106054)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central University (2015ZM057, 2013ZZ0032 and 2014ZP0007)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2015M572321)the Petro China Innovation Foundation (2013D-5006-0107)
文摘Gas hydrates now are expected to be one of the most important future unconventional energy resources. In this paper, researches on gas hydrate exploitation in laboratory and field were reviewed and discussed from the aspects of energy efficiency. Different exploiting methods and different types of hydrate reservoir were selected to study their effects on energy efficiencies. Both laboratory studies and field tests have shown that the improved technologies can help to increase efficiency for gas hydrate exploitation. And it also showed the trend that gas hydrate exploitation started to change from permafrost to marine. Energy efficiency ratio （EER） and energy return on energy invested （EROI） were introduced as an indicator of efficiency for natural gas hydrate exploitation. An energy-efficient hydrate production process, called ＂Hydrate Chain Energy System （HCES）＂, including treatment of flue gas, replacement of CH4 with CO2, separation of CO2 from CH4, and storage and transportation of CH4 in hydrate form, was proposed for future natural gas hydrate exploitation. In the meanwhile, some problems, such as mechanism of C02 replacement, mechanism of CO2 separation, CH4 storage and transportation are also needed to be solved for increasing the energy efficiency of gas hydrate exploitation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71273277, 71722003, 71690244)the Philosophy and Social Sciences Major Research Project of the Ministry of Education (No. 11JZD048)the National Key R&D Program (2016YFC0208901)
文摘The studies and development of coal seam gas（CSG） have been conducted for more than 30 years in China, but few of China＇s CSG projects have achieved large-scale commercial success; faced with the boom of shale gas, some investors are beginning to lose patience and confidence in CSG. China currently faces the following question： Should the government continue to vigorously support the development of the CSG industry？ To provide a reference for policy makers and investors, this paper calculates the EROI_（stnd）[a standardized energy return on investment（EROI） method], EROI_（ide）（the maximum theoretical EROI）, EROI_（3,i）（EROI considering the energy investment in transport）, and EROI_（3,1＋e）（EROI with environmental inputs） of a single vertical CSG well in the Fanzhuang CSG project in the Qinshui Basin. The energy payback time（EPT） and the greenhouse gas（GHG） emissions of the CSG systems are also calculated. The results show that over a 15-year lifetime, EROI_（stnd）, EROI_（ide）, EROI_（3,1）, and EROI_（3,1＋e）are expected to deliver EROIs of approximately11：1, 20：1, 7：1, and 6：1, respectively. The EPT within different boundaries is no more than 2 years, and the life-cycle GHG emissions are approximately 18.8 million kg CO_2 equivalent. The relatively high EROI and short EPT indicate that the government should take more positive measures to promote the development of the CSG industry.
文摘The concern on climate change and on the limitations of fossil fuels is leading to the promotion of renewable-based energy options. However, the assessment of the energy profitability of a technology is still a controversial topic, especially when renewable-based systems are compared with non-renewable ones and when the depletion of the stocks of available resources is not accounted properly. As a matter of fact, some popular energy indicators do not seem to cover all the aspects of the problem, with the risk of drawing ambiguous conclusions. A set of life cycle-based indicators is proposed in order to establish a more reliable approach to the assessment of energy products which decouples the different contributions given by renewable and non-renewable resources. The proposed set of indicators has been quantified for different groups of energy products and compared with an energy indicator frequently used (i.e. EROI). A coherent assessment of the depletion of energy resources and of the energy profitability of the products is presented. The indicators could even contribute to understand the feasibility of energy projects and plans by evaluating their impact on the stock of energy resources.
