Multi-Satellite and Sensor Derived Trends and Variation of Snow Water Equivalent on the High-Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Utilizing more than 30 years of satellite-microwave sensor derived snow water equivalent data on the high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere we investigate regional trends and variations relative to elevation. On the low-elevation tundra regions encircling the Arctic we find high statistically significant trends of snow water equivalent. Across the high Arctic Siberia and Far East Russia through North America and northern Greenland we find increasing trends of snow water equivalent with local region variations in strength. Yet across the high Arctic of western Russia through Norway we find decreasing trends of snow water equivalent of varying strength. Power density spectra identify significant power at quasi-biennial and associated lunar nodal cycles. These cycles of the upper atmosphere circulation, ENSO and ocean circulation perturbations from tides forms the causative linkage between increasing snow water equivalent on low-elevation tundra landscapes and decreasing coastal sea ice cover as part of the Arctic system energy and mass cycles.

STUDY OF THE EQUIVALENT THEOREM OF GENERALIZED VARIATIONAL PRINCIPLES IN ELASTICITY

The relations of all generalized variational principles in elasticity are studied by employing the invariance theorem of field theory. The infinitesimal scale transformation in field theory was employed to investigate the equivalent theorem. Among the results found particularly interesting are those related to that all generalized variational principles in elasticity are equal to each other. Also studied result is that only two variables are independent in the functional and the stress-strain relation is the variational constraint condition for all generalized variational principles in elasticity. This work has proven again the conclusion of Prof. Chien Wei-zang.

VARIATIONAL METHOD TO ANALYZE THE EQUIVALENT NETWORK OF A RECTANGULAR DIELECTRIC POST IN A RECTANGULAR WAVEGUIDE

The equivalent filter modeling of a rectangular dielectric post in a rectangular waveguide is obtained through the variational expression of input impedance. The reflection coefficient expressed in components of network is in good agreement with the results given by K. Siakavara, et al. (1991), The method can be applied to design filter.

Variational Approach for the Adapted Solution of Backw ard Stochastic Differential Equations with Locally Lipschitz Diffusion Coefficients

One existence integral condition was obtained for the adapted solution of the general backward stochastic differential equations(BSDEs). Then by solving the integral constraint condition, and using a limit procedure, a new approach method is proposed and the existence of the solution was proved for the BSDEs if the diffusion coefficients satisfy the locally Lipschitz condition. In the special case the solution was a Brownian bridge. The uniqueness is also considered in the meaning of "F0-integrable equivalent class" . The new approach method would give us an efficient way to control the main object instead of the "noise".

Monthly gravity field recovery from GRACE orbits and K-band measurements using variational equations approach

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） mission can significantly improve our knowledge of the temporal variability of the Earth＇s gravity field.We obtained monthly gravity field solutions based on variational equations approach from GPS-derived positions of GRACE satellites and K-band range-rate measurements.The impact of different fixed data weighting ratios in temporal gravity field recovery while combining the two types of data was investigated for the purpose of deriving the best combined solution.The monthly gravity field solution obtained through above procedures was named as the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics（IGG） temporal gravity field models.IGG temporal gravity field models were compared with GRACE Release05（RL05） products in following aspects：（i） the trend of the mass anomaly in China and its nearby regions within 2005-2010; （ii） the root mean squares of the global mass anomaly during 2005-2010; （iii） time-series changes in the mean water storage in the region of the Amazon Basin and the Sahara Desert between 2005 and 2010.The results showed that IGG solutions were almost consistent with GRACE RL05 products in above aspects（i）-（iii）.Changes in the annual amplitude of mean water storage in the Amazon Basin were 14.7 ± 1.2 cm for IGG,17.1 ± 1.3 cm for the Centre for Space Research（CSR）,16.4 ± 0.9 cm for the GeoForschungsZentrum（GFZ） and 16.9 ± 1.2 cm for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory（JPL） in terms of equivalent water height（EWH）,respectively.The root mean squares of the mean mass anomaly in Sahara were 1.2 cm,0.9 cm,0.9 cm and 1.2 cm for temporal gravity field models of IGG,CSR,GFZ and JPL,respectively.Comparison suggested that IGG temporal gravity field solutions were at the same accuracy level with the latest temporal gravity field solutions published by CSR,GFZ and JPL.

Three-Dimensional Models for Analyzing the Cyclic Variations in a Lean Burn CNG Engine

Three-dimensional models, consisting of the flame kernel formation model, flame kernel development model and natural gas single step reaction model, are used to analyze the contribution of cyclic equivalence ratio variations to cyclic variations in the compressed natural gas （CNG） lean burn spark ignition engine. Computational results including the contributions of equivalence ratio cyclic variations to each combustion stage and effects of engine speed to the extent of combustion variations are discussed. It is concluded that the equivalence ratio variations affect mostly the main stage of combustion and hardly influence initial kernel development stage.

EQUIVALENT BOUNDARY INTEGRAL EQUATIONS WITH INDIRECT VARIABLES FOR PLANE ELASTICITY PROBLEMS

The exact form of the exterior problem for plane elasticity problems was produced and fully proved by the variational principle.Based on this,the equivalent boundary integral equations(EBIE) with direct variables,which are equivalent to the original boundary value problem,were deduced rigorously.The conventionally prevailing boundary integral equation with direct variables was discussed thoroughly by some examples and it is shown that the previous results are not EBIE.

CHARACTERISTICS OF Sq VARIATION OF GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT THE GREAT WALL STATION, ANTARCTICA IN WINTER

In this paper the characteristics of Sq variation of geomagnetic field in the region of the Chinese Great Wall Station (CGWS), Antarctica, in winter are analyzed from geomagnetic data obtained at the Geomagnetic Observatory of CGWS. The result enables us to reveal the following aspects: (1) The pattern of Sq variation at CGWS in early (Apr.) and Late winter (Sep.) is similar to that at Beijing Geomagnetic Observatory (BJO) at the middle latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. It may be controlled by the midlatitudinal ionospheric dynamo current. Amplitude of Sq variation is very small, and the harmonics in 8 hours or shorter periods in midwinter (June and July) is predominant because of the decreased effect of solar ultraviolet radiation and the dominant geomagnetic disturbance at high latitudes. (2) The vectors of Sq-equivalent current in the daytime are about five times more than that in the night. The direction of the vectors is clockwise in the daytime (08-15h) and counterclockwise in the night in early and late winter. Both of the vectors are very small because of the effect of the current density in the ionosphere is relatively weak in midwinter. The direction of vectors of Sq-equivalent current at CGWS in early and late winter is different from that in midwinter. It may be affected by the ionospheric current and field-aligned current in the polar region.

基于LUCC的生态系统服务价值时空演变——以祁连山区域为例

分析祁连山区域生态系统服务价值的时空变化特征,可为该区土地高效开发利用、生态恢复与保护机制的构建提供数据支撑。基于1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据,运用改进的当量因子定量评估祁连山区域不同历史时期的生态系统服务价值,结合空间自相关及GIS空间统计方法,探究研究区不同乡镇的地均生态系统服务价值时空变化特征。结果表明:1)1980-2020年,研究区主要土地类型为未利用地、草地、林地、耕地,总覆盖率在93%以上。其中林地和未利用地面积减少,建设用地动态度变化最大。2)1980-2020年,祁连山区域生态系统服务总价值增加了170.8285×10^(8)元,其中草地、林地和水域的生态服务价值占78%,水文调节和气候调节的生态服务价值占60.14%。3)地均生态系统服务价值的空间正相关性较明显,空间集聚程度较高。高值聚集区有由增加向减少转变的趋势,低值聚集区逐年增加。4)1980-2010年,祁连山区域南部生态系统服务价值高于北部,北部生态系统服务价值在2010年后有增加趋势,但研究区南北间生态系统服务价值还未达到均衡和稳定。

基于切片采样-马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟的高比例新能源电力系统等效惯量概率评估

风电、光伏新能源发电功率的不确定性给高比例新能源电力系统的等效惯量评估带来了新的挑战。基于确定性的惯量评估方法不能有效反映全分析时段高比例新能源电力系统惯量的时序变化态势。为了评估新能源波动所引起的系统惯量不确定性,该文提出了一种基于切片采样–马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(slice sample Markov chain Monte Carlo,S-MCMC)的系统等效惯量概率评估方法。首先,对高比例新能源电力系统惯量组成及特性进行了分析,并对同步旋转设备的有效机械惯量、风电光伏电源的有效虚拟惯量进行量化计算。然后,基于Copula函数建立风速和光照强度之间的相关性模型,利用S-MCMC对系统等效惯量进行概率评估,从而得到系统等效惯量时序变化区间。最后,以改进的IEEE 39节点系统进行仿真分析,验证了所提出方法及分析结果的有效性。

基于多应用场景的改进DV-Hop定位模型

针对距离矢量跳(DV-Hop)定位模型定位精度低、优化策略场景依赖性强的问题,提出一种基于函数分析和模拟定参的改进DV-Hop模型——函数修正距离矢量跳(FuncDV-Hop)定位模型。首先,分析DV-Hop模型的平均跳距、距离估计和最小二乘法中的误差原因,引入待定系数优化、阶跃函数分段实验、带等效点的权重函数策略和极大似然估计修正;其次,考虑多应用场景,用控制变量法,分别将总节点数、信标节点比例、通信半径、信标节点数和待测节点数作为变量,设计对照实验;最后,进行仿真定参和整合优化测试两阶段实验,最终的改进策略较原DV-Hop模型的定位精度提高了23.70%~75.76%,平均优化率57.23%。实验结果表明,FuncDV-Hop模型的优化率最高达到了50.73%,与基于遗传算法和神经动力学改进的DV-Hop模型相比,FuncDV-Hop模型的优化率提升了0.55%~18.77%。所提模型不引入其他参量,不增加无线传感器网络(WSN)的协议开销,且有效提高定位精度。

考虑用户出行成本预算的电力-交通耦合网络充电站定价策略

随着电动汽车的规模化发展,研究如何有效考虑用户的出行行为机理并制定合理的充电站充电价格,对电力-交通网络的协同优化调度具有重大意义。针对此问题,提出了考虑用户出行成本预算的电力-交通耦合网络充电站定价策略。首先,建立考虑出行成本预算的交通用户均衡模型,将均衡状态通过变分不等式进行等效描述,从而对电动汽车出行需求和充电行为进行刻画。其次,构建考虑功率削减的配电网二阶锥优化模型,将充电站定价问题转化为含有变分不等式约束的优化问题,并根据问题设计交替迭代算法和外梯度算法进行求解。最后,通过算例对所提模型和方法的有效性进行验证,结果表明了考虑出行成本预算对耦合网络充电定价的必要性。

基于土地利用变化的湄洲岛生态系统服务价值时空变化分析

[目的]以“文化型”“朝圣型”“旅游型”海岛—湄洲岛为研究对象,分析2000—2020年海岛开发建设过程生态系统服务价值(ESV)的时空变化特征,为制定湄洲岛旅游区土地利用规划和生态建设提供科学参考。[方法]以覆盖湄洲岛的1985—2020年全球30 m精细地表覆盖动态监测数据为数据源,采用ArcGIS技术提取研究区2000,2005,2010,2015和2020年5期土地利用数据,通过土地动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和生态贡献率分析20 a间湄洲岛土地利用变化特征,并结合当量因子法估算湄洲岛生态系统服务价值(ESV)。[结果]①2000—2020年,湄洲岛土地利用类型以建设用地和耕地为主,面积变化上主要表现为建设用地和湿地面积的增长,耕地和林地面积的减少;土地利用转移以林地—耕地—建设用地—水域之间的相互流转和建设用地对耕地和林地的侵占为主;②研究期限内湄洲岛ESV大幅下降,20 a内减少了1252.69万元,林地和耕地是湄洲岛ESV的主要贡献因子,湿地和水域面积增加是ESV增加的主要影响因素;③各单项生态系统服务价值主要表现为:调节服务>支持服务>供给服务>文化服务;④ESV空间分布呈中间低、四周高的特征,高值区与域内森林覆盖率高的区域高度重叠,低值区主要分布在建设用地。[结论]林地和耕地是湄洲岛ESV的主要贡献因子,调节服务对湄洲岛生态系统服务价值量贡献最高。因此在开发建设过程中应提高建设用地利用效率,加强对耕地和林地保护。

安徽省非点源污染氮磷负荷时空变化及来源分析

探究安徽省非点源污染状况,对保障安徽省水生态安全以及安徽省的高质量发展具有重要意义。采用输出系数模型以及等标污染负荷法,估算安徽省2005-2020年氮磷污染负荷总量;结合GIS技术,分析其时空变化特征;在计算各污染源的等标污染负荷量以及等标污染贡献率的基础上,进一步探究安徽省非点源氮磷污染的主要污染源。结果表明:安徽省非点源氮磷污染存在很大的空间分异性,整体表现为皖北和皖中较高,皖南较低的特点,其中非点源氮磷污染负荷最高的是阜阳市,最低的为铜陵,前者约为后者的6~7倍;在时间上,在全省不同地区及各市,氮污染负荷总量整体呈上升趋势,而磷污染负荷变化则呈现不同的变化趋势;从类型看,非点源氮污染负荷的主要贡献源是土地利用,非点源磷污染负荷主要贡献源是畜禽养殖;从具体指标看,耕地为安徽省非点源氮的主要污染源,农村生活排放和耕地是安徽省非点源磷的主要污染源。

加速寿命试验三参数威布尔分布的极小变异-极大似然估计

目的 在加速试验中,对寿命服从三参数威布尔分布的产品进行可靠性评估与寿命预测,解决形状参数小于1时传统方法难以计算的问题。方法 利用三参数威布尔分布与指数分布之间的转换关系,以变异系数误差最小为优化目标,在确定最优位置参数估计值的基础上,应用拟极大似然方法估计分布模型中的其余参数,建立极小变异–极大似然估计(MV-MLE)。根据加速寿命试验中失效机理不变的原则,在失效机理等同条件下,将该方法推广至多应力水平下的可靠寿命评估。结果 在单一应力与多应力水平下,通过仿真模拟验证了所提方法的有效性。与传统方法相比,在小样本条件下,所提方法可提高形状参数(机理等同性参数)估计精度40%以上。结论 所提方法对于三参数威布尔分布的参数估计和寿命评估具有较高精度,能够有效克服传统方法的不足,在加速寿命试验评估中具有良好的应用效果。

基于松弛变异系数的多微电网同调判定与等值建模

随着新能源的快速发展,分布式电源及微电网接入配电网的比例持续增加,配电网仿真研究变得更加困难。同调判定与等值建模是降低电网模型阶数的一种常用方法,已有不少研究利用同调理论对分布式电源进行等值建模。但现存分布式电源同调方法大多适用于下垂或虚拟同步控制,多控制方法下的电力电子器件通用同调识别方法尚未得到充分研究,多数分布式电源同调判定未考虑网络阻抗对同调性影响。在此背景下,提出了一种基于松弛变异系数的同调判定方法,该同调方法能综合量化多状态量子系统同调程度,且能更直观地体现各子系统的同调程度。首先,针对分群阈值确定困难的问题,提出了基于群内最大松弛变异系数曲线决定最佳分群数。然后,通过Kron化简对网络模型进行了进一步收缩。最后,通过IEEE 33节点配电系统改进算例验证了所提方法的有效性。

基于能量变分法的钢底板波形钢腹板组合箱梁畸变效应分析

为合理分析钢底板波形钢腹板梯形箱梁的畸变效应,按各板件面内外抗弯刚度不变的原则将全截面等效为钢材,利用圣维南原理考虑顶底板对波形钢腹板的约束作用,修正畸变扇性坐标分布模式,基于能量变分法建立畸变控制微分方程。与已有文献及有限元进行对比分析,并研究腹板俯角和波形钢腹板厚度变化对畸变翘曲正应力的影响。结果表明,本文解析解与文献解及ANSYS解均吻合较好;基于圣维南原理修正后的扇形坐标分布模式更合理;利用本文等效方法亦可分析传统波形钢腹板组合箱梁的畸变效应;腹板俯角的设置有利于减小畸变翘曲正应力;波形钢腹板厚度变化对腹板与底板交接处的畸变翘曲正应力影响显著。

基于变分BP神经网络的普通公路轴载计算

以普通公路为研究对象,旨在实现路段轴载谱和当量轴次的计算。首先,以《公路沥青路面设计规范》为依据,分析轴载谱和累计当量轴次的计算需求;之后,针对行业信息资源现状,解析多输入多输出的数据驱动特征;进而,针对多元耦合的计算流程,建立变分BP神经网络模型;最后,以徐州地区普通公路网为实例,对所提出方法进行验证。验证集计算中,所得月度当量轴次的推算偏差为17.15%,优于灰色系统预测模型偏差结果(19.89%)以及多元线性回归模型偏差结果(22.37%);轴载谱推算结果中,精度最高的车型为3轴车。所计算的重点轴荷范围可作为重载交通管控和基建养护决策的参考。

基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的江苏入境旅游需求变化对地区经济的影响分析

本文依据江苏2002年旅游活动社会核算矩阵,构建了一个省级双区域静态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,模型包括了5个与旅游活动密切相关的产业和第一产业、第二产业、其他第三产业共8个产业、外省与国外两个外部区域,并根据CGE模型的一般优化假设,设计了5类方程模块,分别是生产模块、收入与支出模块、贸易模块、投资与资本积累模块、宏观闭合与均衡模块,进而对入境旅游需求变化对江苏省地区经济产生的影响进行了全面的定量分析。分析得出:当入境旅游需求分别增长10%、20%、30%时,江苏省地区生产总值在当年10388.31亿元的基础上会增长0.114%、0.231%、0.353%,即入境游客消费每增长1元,地区生产总值分别增长1.36元1、.38元1、.41元,江苏省的社会福利(用等价变化计算)将分别增加0.749、0.763、0.778元等。

适合国情的实用当量电价法

中国自1984 年以来执行直接鼓励投资的多家办电方针和电价的双轨制,在促进电力大发展的同时,也使开放发电市场面临一系列难题,其中一些难题在世界上也是没有先例的。指出两部制电价的两个经济学基础在中国已不复存在;英国的定价方法将抑制中国电力工业的发展;而拍卖的单一电价的多变性,中国的市场难以承受。介绍了适合中国的当量电价法及发电领域经济关系的调整,包括融资和重组。给出了该当量电价法的建模与算法。