Accounting concepts dictate that separately disclosed components should contain separate useful information. This paper examines the relations between income statement components and analysts＇ earnings forecasts and ...Accounting concepts dictate that separately disclosed components should contain separate useful information. This paper examines the relations between income statement components and analysts＇ earnings forecasts and forecast errors. Regressions explaining earnings forecasts using earnings components provide a better fit than regression using just aggregate income to explain forecasts. We interpret this as consistent with the hypothesis that analysts use incremental information in components not available in aggregate income. However, additional tests based on predictability of forecast errors indicate that analysts do not incorporate all information available in components into earnings forecasts. In addition, this inefficiency appears to increase at longer forecast horizons.展开更多
This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. Th...This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. This paper uses two statistical regression methods including Logistic model and Linear model to examine the inner interaction between financial ratios and future earnings from qualitative and quantitative perspectives respectively. Empirical tests find that financial ratios, especially ROE, can help to predict future earnings. Then we add auditor opinion variable into Logistic model to test whether going concern opinion in the auditor reports can be helpful for earnings forecast. Result shows the degree of optimistic statement of going concern opinion is significantly correlated with future earnings but with the disturbance of earnings management.展开更多
Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This stu...Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This study suspects that insiders have a temptation to strategically manipulate financial forecast information to influence markets and thus receive extra rents. Under the new earnings forecast disclosure policy, the number of disclosing firm decreases but the precision of earnings forecast increases. The empirical result from dynamic panel data evidences the forecast error of voluntary disclosure may negatively impact firm values. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between insiders＇ trading profit and manipulation of earnings forecasts. As volatility in insider manipulation increases, it is difficult for the investors to predict the real intention of insiders, and insiders may achieve greater benefits from trading. This study also observes that many listed companies hold investor conferences to provide earnings guidance in Taiwan. The reason may be that investor conference is more flexible and has less forecast error cost than the formal financial forecast. This study provides important insights into earnings forecast policy in emerging markets. The competent authority should improve corporate governance and develop monitoring functions to abate forecast manipulation.展开更多
We examine the relation between managerial ability and management forecast accuracy. We base our analysis on S＆P 500 Composite Index constituents for the period of 2006-2012. Data were collected from Thomson Reuteurs...We examine the relation between managerial ability and management forecast accuracy. We base our analysis on S＆P 500 Composite Index constituents for the period of 2006-2012. Data were collected from Thomson Reuteurs, Compustat and Demerjian, Lev, and McVay （2012）. We find that forecast accuracy is positively associated with managerial ability in the case of sales forecasts. Specifically, more able managers are associated with lower magnitude＇s forecast errors in the case of sales forecasts. Additional analysis finds that managerial ability is immaterial to EPS figures＇ forecast accuracy, i.e., EPS forecasts appear not to be affected by manager＇s superiority. Regarding sales forecasts, the results are consistent with the assertion that managers impact the quality of the delivered management forecasts. Regarding EPS forecasts, the results are in alignment with Demerjian, Lev, Lewis, and McVay （2013） who highlighted that managerial ability is an ability score related to the entire management team.展开更多
This paper investigates the semi-strong form of efficiency of Chinese stock markets in response to earnings forecast announcement by employing the methodology of event study. The sample period is from January 2009 to ...This paper investigates the semi-strong form of efficiency of Chinese stock markets in response to earnings forecast announcement by employing the methodology of event study. The sample period is from January 2009 to January 2018, in total 564 event were examined. The reaction of markets to different types of new announcement is investigated and presented separately. Firstly, examination of positive and negative earnings forecast report shows that information shock brings a significant positive and negative returns during the event window. In addition, analysis of different sub-windows showed prices adjust to news quickly and effectively. However, no news announcements bring no significant shock to market, prices are not impacted by slight change forecasts. In general, empirical results provided evidences of semi-strong market efficiency. Earnings forecast announcements possess huge impact on market prices, therefore participants can make abnormal profit if they act on the information very quickly. However, beyond event window information becomes ineffective and does not possess any kind of content to make above market returns .展开更多
降雨数值预报在预防极端天气和其他气象事件方面具有重要作用。通过提供可靠的概率预报,可以更准确地描述预报结果的不确定性,为决策者提供科学依据,从而提高应用价值和经济价值。以寸滩-三峡区间为研究对象,根据TIGGE资料中的ECMWF和NC...降雨数值预报在预防极端天气和其他气象事件方面具有重要作用。通过提供可靠的概率预报,可以更准确地描述预报结果的不确定性,为决策者提供科学依据,从而提高应用价值和经济价值。以寸滩-三峡区间为研究对象,根据TIGGE资料中的ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式,对2020-2022年(5-10月)逐日降水集合预报信息的精度进行评估。首先,采用Talagrand分布和Brier评分来评估不同预见期的集合预报能力;然后,采用贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)来修正集合预报;最后,对不同预见期的BMA修正值和实际降雨值之间的误差进行分析。结果显示:ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式的预报能力随预见期的增加逐渐下降,在不同预见期下,通过BMA修正后的降雨预报值具有更高的精度。展开更多
We investigate how the accounting treatment of intangible assets on managers’likelihood of issuing voluntary earnings guidance(MEF).We find that unrecognized intangibles(immediately expensed)are negatively associated...We investigate how the accounting treatment of intangible assets on managers’likelihood of issuing voluntary earnings guidance(MEF).We find that unrecognized intangibles(immediately expensed)are negatively associated with MEF issuance,while recognized intangibles(capitalized)show a positive association.These findings hold across various factors such as analysts’coverage,industry type and for a subsample that excludes software firms permitted to capitalize software development costs under SFAS No.86.In additional,we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of MEF issuance based on the characteristics of firm intangibility.We find a significant increase in the likelihood of MEF issuance for higher unrecognized intangibles with greater earnings uncertainty.This suggests that managers may prioritize delivering valuerelevant information to market participants to alleviate uncertainty.展开更多
文摘Accounting concepts dictate that separately disclosed components should contain separate useful information. This paper examines the relations between income statement components and analysts＇ earnings forecasts and forecast errors. Regressions explaining earnings forecasts using earnings components provide a better fit than regression using just aggregate income to explain forecasts. We interpret this as consistent with the hypothesis that analysts use incremental information in components not available in aggregate income. However, additional tests based on predictability of forecast errors indicate that analysts do not incorporate all information available in components into earnings forecasts. In addition, this inefficiency appears to increase at longer forecast horizons.
基金This paper is sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.70172023） and Education Department of China （01JA630019）. The author is grateful to Prof. Minghai Wei of Sun Yat-sen University and Prof.
文摘This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. This paper uses two statistical regression methods including Logistic model and Linear model to examine the inner interaction between financial ratios and future earnings from qualitative and quantitative perspectives respectively. Empirical tests find that financial ratios, especially ROE, can help to predict future earnings. Then we add auditor opinion variable into Logistic model to test whether going concern opinion in the auditor reports can be helpful for earnings forecast. Result shows the degree of optimistic statement of going concern opinion is significantly correlated with future earnings but with the disturbance of earnings management.
文摘Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This study suspects that insiders have a temptation to strategically manipulate financial forecast information to influence markets and thus receive extra rents. Under the new earnings forecast disclosure policy, the number of disclosing firm decreases but the precision of earnings forecast increases. The empirical result from dynamic panel data evidences the forecast error of voluntary disclosure may negatively impact firm values. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between insiders＇ trading profit and manipulation of earnings forecasts. As volatility in insider manipulation increases, it is difficult for the investors to predict the real intention of insiders, and insiders may achieve greater benefits from trading. This study also observes that many listed companies hold investor conferences to provide earnings guidance in Taiwan. The reason may be that investor conference is more flexible and has less forecast error cost than the formal financial forecast. This study provides important insights into earnings forecast policy in emerging markets. The competent authority should improve corporate governance and develop monitoring functions to abate forecast manipulation.
文摘We examine the relation between managerial ability and management forecast accuracy. We base our analysis on S＆P 500 Composite Index constituents for the period of 2006-2012. Data were collected from Thomson Reuteurs, Compustat and Demerjian, Lev, and McVay （2012）. We find that forecast accuracy is positively associated with managerial ability in the case of sales forecasts. Specifically, more able managers are associated with lower magnitude＇s forecast errors in the case of sales forecasts. Additional analysis finds that managerial ability is immaterial to EPS figures＇ forecast accuracy, i.e., EPS forecasts appear not to be affected by manager＇s superiority. Regarding sales forecasts, the results are consistent with the assertion that managers impact the quality of the delivered management forecasts. Regarding EPS forecasts, the results are in alignment with Demerjian, Lev, Lewis, and McVay （2013） who highlighted that managerial ability is an ability score related to the entire management team.
文摘This paper investigates the semi-strong form of efficiency of Chinese stock markets in response to earnings forecast announcement by employing the methodology of event study. The sample period is from January 2009 to January 2018, in total 564 event were examined. The reaction of markets to different types of new announcement is investigated and presented separately. Firstly, examination of positive and negative earnings forecast report shows that information shock brings a significant positive and negative returns during the event window. In addition, analysis of different sub-windows showed prices adjust to news quickly and effectively. However, no news announcements bring no significant shock to market, prices are not impacted by slight change forecasts. In general, empirical results provided evidences of semi-strong market efficiency. Earnings forecast announcements possess huge impact on market prices, therefore participants can make abnormal profit if they act on the information very quickly. However, beyond event window information becomes ineffective and does not possess any kind of content to make above market returns .
文摘降雨数值预报在预防极端天气和其他气象事件方面具有重要作用。通过提供可靠的概率预报,可以更准确地描述预报结果的不确定性,为决策者提供科学依据,从而提高应用价值和经济价值。以寸滩-三峡区间为研究对象,根据TIGGE资料中的ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式,对2020-2022年(5-10月)逐日降水集合预报信息的精度进行评估。首先,采用Talagrand分布和Brier评分来评估不同预见期的集合预报能力;然后,采用贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)来修正集合预报;最后,对不同预见期的BMA修正值和实际降雨值之间的误差进行分析。结果显示:ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式的预报能力随预见期的增加逐渐下降,在不同预见期下,通过BMA修正后的降雨预报值具有更高的精度。
文摘We investigate how the accounting treatment of intangible assets on managers’likelihood of issuing voluntary earnings guidance(MEF).We find that unrecognized intangibles(immediately expensed)are negatively associated with MEF issuance,while recognized intangibles(capitalized)show a positive association.These findings hold across various factors such as analysts’coverage,industry type and for a subsample that excludes software firms permitted to capitalize software development costs under SFAS No.86.In additional,we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of MEF issuance based on the characteristics of firm intangibility.We find a significant increase in the likelihood of MEF issuance for higher unrecognized intangibles with greater earnings uncertainty.This suggests that managers may prioritize delivering valuerelevant information to market participants to alleviate uncertainty.
