Detection of ULF electromagnetic emissions as a precursor to two earthquakes in China

The geomagnetic data recorded by Kashi and Jinghai observatories in China were analyzed with improved polarization method. We compared the result around 0.01 Hz which is thought to be useful to detect the ULF anomaly with the result around 0.1 Hz which was inferred from the earthquake depth according to the skin effect, and found that 0.1 Hz is more proper to detect the ULF anomaly for both earthquakes studied in this paper.

Nucleation of earthquakes and its implication to precursors

The recent argument about nucleation phase of earthquakes reminds us to completely study the concept of earthquake nucleation. The original meaning of nucleation includes concentration, nucleation and initiation of the eruptive processes. Thus, it is needed to discuss how to exactly translate the word 'nucleation' into Chinese in different fields. The basic concept of earthquake nucleation refers to microcrack concentration in rock. It causes local weakening and instability of the rock. The narrow sense of nucleation theory of friction constitutive is significant in friction of fault surfaces, but should not abuse everywhere unconditionally. In terms of thermodynamics, nucleation actually means the variety processes of multiple state parameters of rock. The nucleation is a project that covers multiple courses. In this paper, the studies of damage theory, fracture, earthquake rupture dynamics and constitutive of friction and their implication to earthquake nucleation are remarked. The recently developments are introduced, including the influence of tectonic on the earthquake nucleation process, the method of measuring medium anisotropy, especially shear wave splitting led by concentration and orientation of microcracks. and the experimental study of remote sensing of infrared and microwave radiation related to the nucleation, etc. This paper also discusses the characteristic of large earthquake nucleation, and the implication of above studies to precursors of Strong earthquakes.

Seismogenic model of earthquakes in groups in tectonic block and analysis for some features of earthquake precursory field

Based on the research of computer model on unified seismogenic process of grouped earthquakes in tectonic blockunder tectonodynamic force, some characteristics of seismic activity and some features of earthquake precursoryfield have been studied, including activity of grouped earthquakes, the relationship between earthquake activityand earthquake precursors, the cause of earthquake precursors and so on. By comparing research between the results of theoretical model and practical earthquake cases, some physical explanation for seismogenic process,some characteristics of earthquake activity, and the features of earthquake precursory field have been given.

Results of Geomagnetic Studies on the Problem of Forecasting Strong Earthquakes in Uzbekistan

The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes by the geomagnetic method. The geomagnetic method is widely used on this problem in seismically active regions of the world as one of the promising, informative and operational geophysical methods. The results of long-term geomagnetic studies on the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes in Uzbekistan are presented. Geomagnetic studies were carried out on the territories of the Tashkent, Ferghana, and Kyzylkum geodynamic polygons in the epicentral zones of strong earthquakes that occurred. Long-term, medium- and short-term precursors of earthquakes have been identified. Anomalous changes in the geomagnetic field associated with the decline in aftershock activity were also revealed. The dependence between the duration of the manifestation of long-term magnetic precursors and the magnitude of earthquakes is determined. Absolute proton magnetometers MMP-1, MV-01 (Russia), and G-856 (USA) were used to measure the geomagnetic field.

An Attempt to Analyze a Human Nervous System Algorithm for Sensing Earthquake Precursors

We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a prediction accuracy higher than 70% and a confidence level of 95% over a 12-year period. Since the reliable earthquake precursor signals described by Ada and the characteristics of Alfvén waves match quite well, this paper proposes a hypothesis on how earthquakes are triggered based on the Alfvén (Q G) torsional wave model of Gillette et al. When the plume of the upper mantle column intrudes into the magma and lithosphere of the soft flow layer during the exchange of hot and cold molten material masses deep inside the Earth’s interior during ascent and descent, it is possible to form body and surface plasma sheets under certain conditions to form Alfven nonlinear isolated waves, and Alfven waves often perturb the geomagnetic field, releasing huge heat and kinetic energy thus triggering earthquakes. To explain the complex phenomenon of how Ada senses Alvfen waves and how to locate epicenters, we venture to speculate that special magnetosensory cells in a few human bodies can sense earthquake precursors and attempt to hypothesize an algorithm that analyzes how the human biological nervous system encodes and decodes earthquake precursors and explains how human magnetosensory cells can solve complex problems such as predicting earthquake magnitude and locating epicenters.

Variations of Atmospheric ELF/VLF Radio Noise Due to Seismogenic Modifications in Tropospheric Conductivity

We suggest a possible explanation of the influence of pre-seismic activity on the registration rate of natural ELF(extremely low frequency)/VLF(very low frequency) pulses and the changes of their characteristics. The main idea is as follows. The distribution of the electric field around a thundercloud depends on the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. Quasi-static electric fields of a thundercloud decrease in those tropospheric regions where an increase of air conductivity is generated by pre-seismic activities due to emanation of radioactive gas and water into the lower atmosphere. The electric field becomes reduced in the lower troposphere, and the probability decreases of the cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes in such “contaminated” areas. Simultaneously, the electric field grows inside and above the thunderclouds, and hence, we anticipate a growth in the number of horizontal and tilted inter-cloud (or intra-cloud) (both termed as IC discharges) strokes. Spatial orientation of lightning strokes reduces vertical projection of their individual amplitudes, while the rate (median number strokes per a unit time) of discharges grows. We demonstrate that channel tilt of strokes modifies the spectral content of ELF/VLF radio noise and changes the rate of detected pulses during the earthquake preparation phase.

Abnormal Phenomena Recorded by Several Earthquake Precursor Observation Instruments Before the M_s 8.0 Wenchuan,Sichuan Earthquake

The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14：00 o＇clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of -10^4 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi＇an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.

Satellite Thermal Infrared Earthquake Precursor to the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China,and its Analysis on Geo-dynamics

Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.

Earthquake precursors detected by astronomical observations

It has been primarily confirmed that before the occurrence of a middle or major earthquake, anomalies in the residuals of universal time and latitude measurements obtained by astrometric observations may appear. We investigate the relation between the residual anomalies and the three key factors of an earthquake. To build a network of observational sites so as to obtain data of residuals of universal time and latitude from multi-instruments would be of certain significance for determining three key factors of an earthquake, especially for positioning epicenter. The data from multi-instruments would also be valuable for studies of the variation of the vertical. It is proposed to manufacture potable and high-accuracy astrometric instruments and to build observational network to obtain anomalies of universal time and latitude in the regions with high earthquake uprising possibilities.

The synergy of earthquake precursors

The system of geophysical shells （lithosphere, atmosphere, ionosphere） is considered as an open complex nonlinear system with dissipation where earthquake preparation could be regarded as a self-organizing process leading to the critical state of the system. The processes in atmosphere and ionosphere are considered from the point of view of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The intensive ionization of boundary layer of atmosphere （probably provided by radon in occasion of earthquake preparation） gives start to the synergetic sequence of coupling processes where the ionosphere and even magnetosphere are the last links in the chain of interactions. Every anomaly observed in different geophysical fields （surface temperature, latent heat flux, electromagnetic emissions, variations in ionosphere, particle precipitation, etc.） is not considered as an individual process but the part of the self-organizing process, the final goal of which is the reaching of the point of the maximum entropy. Radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake is considered as a perfect example to satisfy the formal seismological determination of the earthquake precursor. What is genetically connected with radon through the ionization process can also be regarded as a precursor. The problem of co-seismic variations of the discussed parameters of atmosphere and ionosphere is considered as well.

The medium- and short-term prediction methods of strong earthquakes based on neural network

The field of neural network has found solid application in the past ten years and the field itself is still developing rapidly. Neural network is composed of many simple elements operating in parallel. A neural network can be trained to perform a particular mapping and this is the basis of its application to practical problems. In this paper, new methods for predicting the strong earthquakes are presented based on neural network. Neural network learns from existing earthquake sequences or earthquake precursors how to make medium and short term prediction of strong earthquakes. This paper describes two neural network prediction models. One is the model based on earthquake evolution sequences, which is applied to the modeling of the magnitude evolution sequences in the Mainland of China, the other is based on earthquake precursors, which is applied to the modeling of the occurrence time of strong earthquakes in North China. Test results show that the prediction methods based on neural networks are efficient, and convenient. They would find more application in the future.

Extraction of seismic precursory information from gravity tide at Kunming station based on HHT

Hilbert-Huang Transformation （HHT） is a recently-developed method for non-linear signal processing （Huang et al, 1998）. By performing empirical mode decomposition （EMD） with HHT, various frequency components can be effectively separated as intrinsic mode function （IMF）. After Hilbert transformation to the IMF se- quence, the 3-D discrete time-frequency spectrum containing time, frequency and amplitude can be obtained, which provides very clear time-frequency characteristics with local details. The method is suitable for describing siznals with non-linear and non-stable variations.

Experimental examination on the heterogeneity parameter C_v of earthquake precursors

Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multi-point strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability process were analyzed by using Cv value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of Cv value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of Cv value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity of precursor distribution. Cv value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when Cv value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that Cv value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.

Formation cause of thermal infrared high temperature belt along Honghe fault and its relation to earthquakes

Aiming at two Dayao earthquakes with magnitude more than 6 occurred in 2003 in Yunnan Province, we analyzed and interpreted the NOAA satellite thermal infrared images of 1999, 2003 and 2004 in Chuandian region, and also calculated the annual variation of brightness temperature of the hot belt along Honghe fault to explore the formation cause of the high temperature belt and its relation to the earthquakes. The results show that the high temperature belt along Honghe fault is caused by geographic environment factors, such as water system and terrain. But the annual average brightness temperature of the belt in earthquake year of 2003 is clearly higher than that in no earthquake years of 1999 and 2004, this maybe indicates that the thermal activities of Honghe fault increase in earthquake years, and can cause the annual variation anomaly of brightness temperature. We can detect and monitor this thermal activities of Honghe fault before earthquake by analyzing and comparing the relative changes of thermal infrared brightness temperature of the hot belt in different years.

Study of techniques of identifying the earthquake precursory anomalies in terms of mathematical modeling

This paper deals mainly with the key technique of identifying the anomalous signals without distortion, which might be the precursors associated with earthquakes, from the real time series of observations that would be usually the mixture of the anomalous signals, the normal background variations, some interference and noises. The key technique of 'un-biased estimation' is to construct an empirical time series and set up the criterion for identifying the anomalous variation on the bases of time series analysis. To the end of testing the method, a man-made time series including the normal variations and random interference as well as specific anomaly, has been constructed. And the test of picking up the anomaly has been conducted with the intuitive and effective way of identifying the anomalous signal from a complicated time series. Test results confirms that the techniques under discussion are effective and applicable, and the signals extracted from the analysis, could be clear and precise, and is almost similar to the known simulated anomalous signals in the experiments.

Statistical property of candidate earthquake precursors and its apparent focal mecha- nism dependence

Statistical properties of reported earthquake precursors show apparent focal mechanism dependence. Intensity of anomaly is described by the ′anomaly ratio′ as defined by the number of stations/items reporting anomalies before the target earthquake over the number of stations/items in operation around the target earthquake. Variation of the ′anomaly ratio′ with the magnitude of the target earthquake was studied for dip-slip earthquakes all over China, strike-slip earthquakes in eastern China, and strike-slip earthquakes in western China, respectively. It is observed that for strike-slip earthquakes, the ′anomaly ratio′ increases linearly with the magnitude of the target earthquake, while earthquakes in eastern China and western China have different slopes. For dip-slip earthquakes, however, the ′anomaly ratio′ has no statistically significant change with the magnitude of the target earthquake. Limited data imply that the ′anomaly ratio′ seems proportional to the apparent stress of the target earthquake. The result might be heuristic for the analysis of candidate earthquake precursors.

Effects of mining－induced earthquakes on water table in deep wells

Based on the systematical collection and processing of data on the influence of mining-induced earthquakes on water table regime in deep well Lu-15 in Taozhuang Coal Mine since 1980, we study the characteristics of coseismic effect of water table in deep well in this paper. We have found precursory phenomena of water table in deep well before mining-induced earthquake. Here we discuss the physical mechanism of coseismic effect of mining--induced earthquake on water table in deep well.

ApplicationofcertaintyfactorsofearthquakeprecursoryanomalyevidencesCF（E）

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Ultra low frequeney electromagnetic wave anomaly and its spectrum characteristics before earthquakes

Many observations and researches show that abundant and intense ultra low frequency (ULF) electromagneticanomalies appears before local earthquakes. In order to understand this phenomenon systematically, the trans-mission property and the formation of the seismic-electric dipole are discussed in this paper. The results showthat the vertical component Of the ULF electric anomaly before earthquake has the properties of better penetration, less disturbance and high signal-to-noise ratio. The signal can be easily extracted and received. The anomaly should be an important way to seek for reliable short-term and imminent earthquake precursors. After thespectrum analysis of the (ULF) electric field anomalies, we found that the periods of the anomaly related to localearthquakes are from a few minutes to a dozens minutes. There is a relation between the spectrum of the anomaly and the epicentral distance. The ULF electric field anomalies strongly rely on the orientation of the seismo-genie zone. The percolation electric field anomaly and its spectrum amplitude do not have obvious relation withthe size of local earthquakes.

Research on the fuzzy relationship between the precursory anomalous elements and earthquake elements

This paper deals with the fuzzy information processing method in the research of the relationship between two variables or among multi-variables, with the undetermined or fuzzy features, different from that in the traditional statistical method. The reliability and effectiveness of the method have been tested and confirmed in the numerical simulation for a set of man-made data of precursory anomalous parameters and earthquake elements. Finally the relation between the actual monthly frequency of small earthquakes occurring in Huoshan, Anhui Province, China and the magnitude of future stronger earthquakes, as two variables, has been analyzed by the method. It seems to the authors that more reasonable and perfect results could be given with a quantitative analysis of accession degree in fuzzy mathematics by using this method than that of traditional statistical correlation analysis.