Future Changes in the Relationship Between the South and East Asian Summer Monsoons in CMIP6 Models

The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5)experiments from 26 coupled models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Six models,selected based on their best performance in simulating the upper-and lower-level pathways related to the SASM-EASM teleconnection in the historical run,can capture the positive relationship between the SASM and the rainfall over northern China.In the future scenario,the upper-level teleconnection wave pattern connecting the SASM and the EASM exhibits a significant weakening trend,due to the rainfall anomalies decrease over the northern Indian Peninsula in the future.At the lower level,the western North Pacific anticyclone is projected to strengthen in the warming climate.The positive(negative)rainfall anomalies associated with positive(negative)SASM rainfall anomalies are anticipated to extend southward from northern China to the Yangtze-Huai River valley,the Korea Peninsula,and southern Japan.The connection in the lower-level pathway may be strengthened in the future.

Recent Advances in Studies of the Interaction between the East Asian Winter and Summer Monsoons and ENSO Cycle

Recent advances in studies on the interaction between the East Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle are reviewed in this paper. Through the recent studies, not only have the responding features and processes of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon circulation anomalies and summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia to the ENSO cycle during its different stages been understood further, but also have the thermal and dynamic effects of the tropical \vestern Pacific on the ENSO cycle been deeply analyzed from the observational facts and dynamic theories. The results of observational and theoretical studies showed that the dynamical effect of the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies in the lower troposphere over the tropical western Pacific on the ENSO cycle may be through the excitation of the equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific. These studies demonstrated further that the ENSO cycle originates from the tropical western Pacific. Moreover, these recent studies also showed that the atmospheric circulation and zonai wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific not only result from the air-sea interaction over the tropical western Pacific, but are also greatly influenced by the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Additionally, the scientific problems in the interaction between the Asian monsoon and the ENSO cycle which should be studied further in the near future are also pointed out in this paper.

The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoonsimulated by a weakly coupled data assimilation system

With the motivation to improve the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in coupled climate models, oceanic data assimilation(DA) was used in CAS-ESM-C(Chinese Academy of Sciences–Earth System Model–Climate Component) in this study. Observed sea surface temperature was assimilated into CAS-ESM-C. The climatology and interannual variability of the EASM simulated in CAS-ESM-C with DA were compared with a traditional AMIP-type run.Results showed that the climatological spatial pattern and annual cycle of precipitation in the western North Paci?c, and the ENSO-related and EASM-related EASM circulation and precipitation, were largely improved. As shown in this study, air–sea coupling is important for EASM simulation. In addition, oceanic DA synchronizes the coupled model with the real world without breaking the air–sea coupling process. These two successful factors make the assimilation experiment a more reasonable experimental design than traditional AMIP-type simulations.

Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with Precipitation of China in Recent 111 Years

Based on the monthly average SLP data in the northern hemisphere from 1899 to 2009, East Asian summer monsoon intensity index in recent 111 years was calculated, and the interdecadal and interannual variation characteristics of East Asian summer monsoon were analyzed. The results showed that East Asian summer monsoon in the 1920s was the strongest. The intensity of East Asian summer monsoon after the middle period of the 1980s presented weakened trend. It was the weakest in the early 21st century. Morlet wavelet analysis found that the interdecadal and interannual variations of East Asian summer monsoon had quasi-10-year and quasi-2-year significance periods. The interannual variation of precipitation in the east of China closely related to intensity variation of East Asian summer monsoon. In strong （weak） East Asian summer monsoon year, the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River was less （more） than that in common year, while the rainfall in North China was more （less） than that in common year. The weakening of East Asian summer monsoon was an important reason for that it was rainless （drought） in North China and rainy （flood） in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River after the middle period of the 1980s.

The Interannual Variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Relation to the Summer Monsoon

Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon include strong (weak) northerly winds along coastal East Asia, cold (warm) East Asian continent and surrounding sea and warm (cold) ocean from the subtropical central Pacific to the trop-ical western Pacific, high (low) pressure in East Asian continent and low (high) pressure in the adjacent ocean and deep (weak) East Asian trough at 500 hPa. These interannual variations are shown to be closely connected to the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific, both in the western and eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the strength of the EAWM is mainly influenced by the processes associated with the SST anom-aly over the tropical Pacific. The EAWM generally becomes weak when there is a positive SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific (El Ni?o), and it becomes strong when there is a negative SST anomaly (La Ni?a). Moreover, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is found to be closely related to the EAWM and may persist to the following summer. Both the circulation at 850 hPa and the rainfall in China confirm the connection between the EAWM and the following East Asian summer monsoon. The possible reason for the recent 1998 summer flood in China is briefly discussed too. Key words East Asian winter monsoon - Interannual variability - SST - Summer monsoon This study was supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1, and by key project (KZ 952-S1-404) of Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Characteristics and Variations of the East Asian Monsoon System and Its Impacts on Climate Disasters in China

Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.

Characteristics,Processes,and Causes of the Spatio-temporal Variabilities of the East Asian Monsoon System

Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects： the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） system and the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific （EAP） teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the ＂Silk Road＂ teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.

How Well do Existing Indices Measure the Strength of the East Asian Winter Monsoon?

Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four categories： low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these indices are then analyzed for the 1957-2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices except the east-west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic effects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.

The Progresses of Recent Studies on the Variabilities of the East Asian Monsoon and Their Causes

The variabilities of the East Asian summer monsoon arc an important research issue in China, Japan, and Korea. in this paper, progresses of recent studies on the intrascasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variations of the East Asian monsoon, especially the East Asian summer monsoon, and their causes are reviewed. Particularly, studies on the effects of the ENSO cycle, the western Pacific warm pool, the Tibetan Plateau and land surface processes on the variations of the East Asian summer monsoon are systematically reviewed.

The Interannual Variability of East Asian Monsoon and Its Relationship with SST in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Climate Model

Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980–1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is geographically and dynamically different from the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The region of the monsoon defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is located in the tropical region of Asia (40–110°E, 10–20°N), including the Indian monsoon and the Southeast Asian monsoon, while the EAM de-fined in this paper is located in the subtropical region of East Asia (110–125°E, 20–40°N). The components and the seasonal variations of the SAM and EAM are different and they characterize the tropical and subtropical Asian monsoon systems respectively. A suitable index (EAMI) for East Asian monsoon was then defined to describe the strength of EAM in this paper. In the second part of the paper, the interannual variability of EAM and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the 200 year simulation were studied by using the composite method, wavelet transformation, and the moving correlation coefficient method. The summer EAMI is negatively correlated with ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) cycle represented by the NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the preceding April and January, while the winter EAM is closely correlated with the succeeding spring SST over the Pacific in the coupled model. The general differences of EAM between El Nino and La Nina cases were studied in the model through composite analysis. It was also revealed that the dominating time scales of EAM variability may change in the long-term variation and the strength may also change. The anoma-lous winter EAM may have some correlation with the succeeding summer EAM, but this relation-ship may disappear sometimes in the long-term climate variation. Such time-dependence was found in the relationship between EAM and SST in the long-term climate simulation as well. Key words East Asian monsoon - Interannual variability - Coupled climate model The author wishes to thank Profs. Wu G.X., Zhang X.H., and Dr. Yu Y.Q. for providing the coupled model re-sults. Dr. Yu also kindly provided assistance in using the model output. This work was supported jointly by the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China key project ’ The analysis on the seasonal-to-interannual variation of the general circulation’ under contract 49735160 and Chinese Academy of Sciences key project ’ The Interannual Va-riability and Predictability of East Asian Monsoon’.

Possible Impacts of Winter Arctic Oscillation on Siberian High, the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Sea-Ice Extent

Using the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset covering a 40-year period from January 1958 to December 1997, sea surface temperature (1950-1992), and monthly sea-ice concentration dataset for the period from 1953 to 1995, we investigate connections between winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Siberian high (SH), the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and winter sea-ice extent in the Barents Sea. The results indicate that winter AO not only influences climate variations in the Arctic and the North Atlantic sector, but also shows possible effects on winter SH, and further influences EAWM, When winter AO is in its positive phase, both of winter SH and the EAWM are weaker than normal, and air temperature from near the surface to the middle troposphere is about 0.5-2degreesC higher than normal in the southeastern Siberia and the East Asian coast, including eastern China, Korea, and Japan. When AO reaches its negative phase, an opposite scenario can be observed. The results also indicate that winter SH has no significant effects on climate variations in Arctic and the North Atlantic sector. Its influence intensity and extent are obviously weaker than AO, exhibiting a 'local, feature in contrast to AO. This study further reveals the possible mechanism of how the winter AO is related to winter SH. It is found that winter SH variation is closely related to both dynamic processes and air temperature variations from the surface to the middle troposphere. The western SH variation mainly depends on dynamic processes, while its eastern part is more closely related to air temperature variation. The maintaining of winter SH mainly depends on downward motion of airflow of the nearly entire troposphere. The airflow originates from the North Atlantic sector, whose variation is influenced by the AO. When AO is in its positive (negative) phase, downward motion remarkably weakened (strengthened), which further influences winter SH. In addition, winter AO exhibits significant influences on the simultaneous sea-ice extent in the Barents Sea.

An Index Measuring the Interannual Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-The EAP Index

Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.

The Impacts of Moisture Transport of East Asian Monsoon on Summer Precipitation in Northeast China

By using the ECMWF reanalysis daily data and daily precipitation data of 80 stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2002, the impacts of moisture transport of East Asian summer monsoon on the summer precipitation anomaly in Northeast China, and the relationship between the variation of moisture budget and the establishment of East Asian summer monsoon in this region are studied. The results demonstrate that the moisture of summer precipitation in Northeast China mainly originates from subtropical, South China Sea, and South Asia monsoon areas. East China and its near coastal area are the convergent region of the monsoonal moisture currents and the transfer station for the currents continually moving northward. The monsoonal moisture transport, as an important link or bridge, connects the interaction between middle and low latitude systems. In summer half year, there is a moisture sink in Northeast China where the moisture influx is greater than outflux. The advance transport and accumulation of moisture are of special importance to pentad time scale summer precipitation. The onset, retreat, and intensity change of the monsoonal rainy season over Northeast China are mainly signified by the moisture input condition along the southern border of this area. The establishment of East Asian summer monsoon in this area ranges from about 10 July to 20 August and the onset in the west is earlier than that in the east. The latitude that the monsoon can reach is gradually northward from west to east, reaching 50°N within longitude 120°-135°E. In summer, the difference of air mass transport between summers with high and low rainfall mainly lies in whether more air masses originating from lower latitudes move northward through East China and its coastal areas, consequently transporting large amounts of hot and humid air into Northeast China.

The Instability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-ENSO Relations

The instability in the relation between the East Asian summer monsoon and the ENSO cycle in the long-term variation is found through this research. By instability, we mean that high inter-relation exists in some periods but low inter-relation may appear in some other periods. It is reveals that the interannual variation of the summer atmospheric circulation during the ' high correlation' periods (HCP) is significantly different from that during the ' low correlation' periods (LCP). Larger interannual variability is found during HCP for trade wind over the tropical eastern Pacific of the Southern Hemisphere, the low-level air temperature over the tropical Pacific, the subtropical high pressure systems in the two hemispheres, and so on. The correlation between summer rainfall over China and ENSO is as well different between HCP and LCP.

Regional-scale Surface Air Temperature and East Asian Summer Monsoon Changes during the Last Millennium Simulated by the FGOALS-gl Climate System Model

The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） model.The model was driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.Major features of the simulated past millennial Northern Hemisphere （NH） mean SAT variations,including the Medieval Climate Anomaly （MCA）,the Little Ice Age （LIA） and the 20th Century Warming （20CW）,were generally consistent with the reconstructions.The simulated MCA showed a global cooling pattern with reference to the 1961-90 mean conditions,indicating the 20CW to be unprecedented over the last millennium in the simulation.The LIA was characterized by pronounced coldness over the continental extratropical NH in both the reconstruction and the simulation.The simulated global mean SAT difference between the MCA and LIA was 0.14°C,with enhanced warming over high-latitude NH continental regions.Consistencies between the simulation and the reconstruction on regional scales were lower than those on hemispheric scales.The major features agreed well between the simulated and reconstructed SAT variations over the Chinese domain,despite some inconsistency in details among different reconstructions.The EASM circulation during the MCA was stronger than that during the LIA The corresponding rainfall anomalies exhibited excessive rainfall in the north but deficient rainfall in the south.Both the zonal and meridional thermal contrast were enhanced during the MCA.This temperature anomaly pattern favored a stronger monsoon circulation.

Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability as Indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS

The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models （CGCMs）＇ retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient （TCC） of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850- hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain （20^-60~N, 90^-150~E）, was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models （range： 0.39-0.51） for the period 1969 2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.

Impact of Global SST on Decadal Shift of East Asian Summer Climate

East Asia experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift around the late 1970s, with more floods in the valley of the Yangtze River of central-eastern China and more severe drought in North China since then. Whether global SST variations have played a role in this shift is unclear. In the present study, this issue is investigated by ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the GFDL AM2, since one validation reveals that the model simulates the observed East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） well. The results suggest that decadal global SST variations may have played a substantial role in this climate shift. Further examination of the associated atmospheric circulation shows that these results are physically reasonable.

Characteristics of Clay Minerals in the Northern South China Sea and Its Implications for Evolution of East Asian Monsoon since Miocene

Clay mineral assemblages, crystallinity, chemistry, and micromorphology of clay particles in sediments from ODP Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea （SCS） were analyzed, and used to trace sediment sources and obtain proxy records of the past changes in the East Asian monsoon climate since the Miocene, based on a multi-approach, including X-ray diffraction （XRD） and scanning electron microscopy combined with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry （SEM-EDS）. Clay minerals consist mainly of illite and smectite, with associated chlorite and kaolinite. The illite at ODP Site 1146 has very well-to-well crystallinity, and smectite has moderate-to-poor crystallinity. In SEM the smectite particles at ODP Site 1146 often appear cauliflower-like, a typical micromorphology of volcanic smecites. The smectite at ODP Site 1146 is relatively rich in Si element, but poor in Fe, very similar to the smectite from the West Philippine Sea. In contrast, the chemical composition of illite at ODP Site 1146 has no obvious differences from those of the Loess plateau, Yellow River, Yangtze River, and Pearl River. A further study on sediment source indicates that smectite originates mainly from Luzon, kaolinite from the Pearl River, and illite and chlorite from the Pearl River, Taiwan and/or the Yangtze River. The clay mineral assemblages at ODP Site 1146 were not only controlled by continental eathering regimes surrounding the SCS, but also by the changing strength of the transport processes. The ratios of （illite＋chlorite）/smectite at ODP Site 1146 were adopted as proxies for the East Asian monsoon evolution. Relatively higher ratios reflect strongly intensified winter monsoon relative to summer monsoon, in contrast, lower ratios indicate a strengthened summer monsoon relative to winter monsoon. The consistent variation of this clay proxy from those of Loess plateau, eolian deposition in the North Pacific, planktonic, benthic foraminifera, and black carbon in the SCS since 20 Ma shows that three profound shifts of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity, and aridity in the Asian inland and the intensity of winter monsoon relative to summer monsoon, occurred at about 15 Ma, 8 Ma, and the younger at about 3 Ma. The phased uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau may have played a significant role in strengthening the Asian monsoon at 15 Ma, 8 Ma, and 3 Ma.

Origin of the TBO-Interaction between Anomalous East-Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO Cycle

Based on the data analyses by using NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data and other data (OLR, precipitation and temperature), it is shown that the tropospheric circulation and climate in East Asia and the northwestern Pacific region have the evident quasi-biennial oscillation (TBO) feature. It is also shown that anomalous East Asian winter monsoon can impact the atmospheric circulation and climate variations in the following summer, particularly in East Asian region; there is clear interaction between anomalous East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO cycle. The continuous strong (weak) East Asian winter monsoon can excite El Ni o (La Ni a) through the air-sea interaction, the El Ni o (La Ni a) event can lead the East Asian winter monsoon to be weak (strong) through the teleconnections or remote responses. The strong or weak winter monsoon and ENSO cycle are linked each other. It can be suggested that interaction between anomalous East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO cycle is a fundamental origin of the TBO.

Interannual Variability of the Convective Activities Associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon Obtained from TBBV ariability

In this paper, the interannual variability of the convective activities associated with the East Asian summer monsoon and its association with the thermal distribution of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific are analyzed by using the daily TBB (Temperature of Black Body at Cloud Top) dataset from 1980 to 1991. The results of composite and individual analyses of TBB anomalies show that the interannual variability of the convective activities associated with the summer monsoon in East Asia is large and has a close relation to the thermal distribution of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, especially in the western Pacific warm pool. In the summer with ENSO-like distribution of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the convective activities are weak around the Philippines, then the convective activities are intensified and the summer monsoon rainfall is strong in the area from the Yangtze River basin and the Huaihe River basin in China to Republic of Korea and Japan. On the contrary, in the summer with anti-ENSO-like distribution of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the convective activities are strong around the Philippines, then the convective activities are weakened and the summer monsoon rainfall is weak in the area from the Yangtze River basin and the Huaihe River basin to Republic of Korea and Japan. It may be also found either from the composite analysis or from the individual analysis of TBB anomalies that the convective activities associated with the summer monsoon in East Asia have a good negative relation to that around the Philippines and a positive relation to that over the equatorial central Pacific.