Characteristics of Radar Echo Parameters and Microphysical Structure Simulation of a Short-Time Heavy Precipitation Supercell

By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1°×1° reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front,combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the“sudden drop”of FV40was a precursor signal of cells’ coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier.A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter(CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.

层状云数值模式与实际观测研究

改进了一维层状云雨滴分档模式,利用雨滴分档模式在计算雨滴粒子谱型及数浓度自然演变方面中的优势,对吉林省长春市6月21日3个不同时刻的降雨进行了模拟,并与实测资料进行了比较。结果表明,改进后的模式计算稳定,可以模拟出与实际降水谱型相接近的雨滴谱;对于层状云中上升气流速度难以直接测量的问题,通过选用不同的上升气流速度方案,并将计算所得的雷达回波反射率廓线与实际地面雷达观测值相拟和的方法,从而为实现通过雷达回波与模式计算相比较来测量定量降水提供一个新的思路;与实际观测结果比较可知,暖区碰并过程对本次降水的贡献在10%左右,与上升气流的速度有关。

基于盲反卷积和参数化模型的超声参数估计

在超声检测中,往往需要获得传播时间(TOF)、回波个数、中心频率、幅值等全面的信息,来综合评判缺陷的位置、大小和类型。通过建立多回波的卷积模型和参数化模型,给出一种结合最小熵盲反卷积(MED)和期望值最大(EM)算法思想的超声回波参数估计方法。首先基于卷积模型,采用最小熵反卷积,实现了重叠多回波信号的有效分离;再基于参数化模型和所获取的回波个数,给出了基于期望值最大算法思想的参数估计算法;最终实现了重叠多回波超声信号TOF、回波个数、中心频率、幅值等参数的精确估计。仿真和实验验证了该方法的有效性和优点。

WRF模式中3种闪电参数化方案的对比分析

利用WRF模式V3.6.1中3种基于经验公式的闪电参数化方案对2013-07-05江苏省内的1次飑线过程进行数值模拟,对比3种方案在模拟闪电位置和频数的特点,分析模拟结果的成因。结果表明:PR92w方案能够很好地模拟闪电的分布位置;PR92z方案的模拟结果和PR92w方案正好相反,闪电频数与实测结果有很好的一致性但分布位置出现偏移;LPI方案虽然能指示闪电分布区域,但对高闪电密度区的预报有一定误差。3种方案的模拟结果表明:垂直风速和雷达回波是影响模式预报闪电频数和分布的重要因素。因此,增大网格模拟精度和同化雷达资料是改善PR92方案模拟效果的重要途径。

参数化双频连续波模拟目标回波产生器的设计与实现

在现代雷达系统中,雷达波形的选择对系统探测性能的影响尤为关键。基于参差重频法、二次相差法等对模拟目标回波的实际需求,设计了参数化的双频模目产生器。提出了单频和双频模目的基本模型,得到了距离产生的调制初相,速度产生的一次相位和加速度产生的二次相位的计算方法,给出了双频模目的工程实施方法,计算并分析了由实际数据得到的双频模目频谱以及解算的距离,速度和加速度等参数。实现结果表明,双频模目产生器能够满足系统目标检测和参数估计的要求,并且具有参数可重新配置,可扩展性等特点。