Economic Effects

The past two years have witnessed great fluctuations ininternational oil prices,and diplomatic efforts,both above andunder the table,by major powers around this issue.The currenttension in the war-threatened Iraq has added more uncertainties to thefuture world oil situation.Will the world oil supply and demand change?What impact would this exert on big powers’ oil strategy choices,geopolitics as well as world economy?What should China do in such asituation?To find the answers to these questions,at the invitation of theeditor of the Contemporary International Relations,seven experts fromChina Institute of Contemporary International Relations gathered to have adiscussion in early February this year.Naturally,they have differentviews over many issues.Still,we hope our readers would find theirdiscussion interesting.Following is the list of participants.

Economic Effects of China’s Import Expansion Strategy

Since 2018,China has enacted a string of policy initiatives to increase imports.To quantify this import expansion strategy’s economic effects,we created a large numerical general equilibrium model and quantitatively simulated the economic effects of the reductions of tariff and non-tariff barriers on China and other economies.Our simulation results show that overall,China’s import expansion strategy benefited both itself and others and contributed to employment,welfare,and trade growth in China and the rest of the world.In relative terms,however,China’s import expansion strategy benefited other countries more than it did itself and contributed more to the growth of the world economy.Additionally,the import expansion strategy may effectively promote China’s trade balance,and the trade equilibrium effect driven by the reduction of non-tariff barriers is more significant than that of tariff barriers.Furthermore,regarding the self-benefiting effects of import expansion,the effects of nontariff measures are significantly greater than those of tariff measures,and this result has policy implications for China’s import expansion strategy going forward.

Analysis and Innovative Strategies of Tax Preferential Policies to Promote the Sustainable Development of Small-Scale Individual Businesses

This study conducted an in-depth analysis of the current tax preferential policies for small-scale individual businesses and compared them with similar policies both domestically and internationally,aiming to reveal the advantages and disadvantages of the current system.After examining the impact of these tax preferential policies on the economic status of individual business owners and the broader social economy,this article proposes a set of innovative tax preferential strategies based on theoretical foundations.By developing these innovative strategies and clarifying their implementation paths,the aim is to promote the sustainable and healthy development of small-scale individual businesses,thereby fostering comprehensive socio-economic progress.The conclusion of this study not only summarizes policy recommendations with practical significance but also provides theoretical support for the optimization and innovation of future related systems.

Economic Effect of Rural Labor Transfer in China

With the continuous development of China’s economy and the acceleration of urbanization,more and more rural labor force is gradually transferred to cities and non-agricultural industries.Although the transfer of rural labor force can increase farmers’income,improve farmers’quality of life,and accelerate the process of urbanization and agricultural modernization in China,the unreasonable transfer of rural labor force has also brought some problems to China’s agricultural development.This paper mainly through the method of combining theoretical derivation and empirical analysis,using the data from 2010 to 2015 to analyze,study the influence of rural labor transfer on agricultural production,explore the relationship between rural labor transfer and agricultural development and provide relevant policy suggestions.

Key Problems and Countermeasures in CO_(2)Flooding and Storage

Based on literature research in combination with the practice of CO_(2)flooding and storage in Jilin Oilfield,this study assesses the key problems in CO_(2)flooding and storage,proposing the corresponding countermeasures from five aspects of CO_(2)gas source condition,namely geological condition evaluation,scheme design incoordination with other production methods,economic and effectiveness evaluation,together with dynamic monitoring and safety evaluation.The results show that CO_(2)flooding is the most economic and effective CO_(2)storage method.In eastern China,inorganic origin CO_(2)gas reservoirs are widely developed and are especially the most enriched in the Paleozoic carbonate rock strata and the Cenozoic Paleogene–Neogene system,which provide a rich resource base for CO_(2)flooding and storage.In the future,CO_(2)generated in the industrial field will become the main gas source of CO_(2)flooding and storage.The evaluation of geological conditions of oil and gas reservoirs is the basis for the potential evaluation,planning scheme design and implementation of CO_(2)flooding and storage.CO_(2)storage should be below the depth of 800 m,the CO_(2)flooding and storage effects in lowpermeability oil reservoirs being the best.CO_(2)geological storage mechanisms primarily consist of tectonic geological storage,bound gas storage,dissolution storage,mineralization storage,hydrodynamic storage and coalbed adsorption storage.The practice of CO_(2)flooding and storage in Jilin Oilfield demonstratesthat the oil increment by CO_(2)flooding is at least 24%higher than by conventional water flooding.The most critical factor determining the success or failure of CO_(2)flooding and storage is economic effectiveness,which needs to be explored from two aspects:the method and technology innovation along with the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policy support.After CO_(2)is injected into the reservoir,it will react with the reservoir and fluid,the problem of CO_(2)recovery or overflow will occur,so the dynamic monitoring and safety evaluation of CO_(2)flooding and storage are very important.This study is of great significance to the expansion of the application scope of CO_(2)flooding and storage and future scientific planning and deployment.

Research on the Influence of the Digital Economy on Transforming Consumption Behavior Among Residents

Drawing on the essence of Marxist consumer economy theory,this paper argues that the innovations of digital technology can effectively facilitate the integration of economies of scale,economies of scope,and long-tail economies.Through careful analysis of the practical case of Xiaomi’s business ecosystem,this paper highlights the notion that data serve as both a key production factor and a critical consumption carrier within the context of digital consumption.We thoroughly investigated the influence of the digital economy on transforming consumption behavior among residents by analyzing a range of typical business cases and the latest data that triggered this transformation.Based on the analysis,this paper argues that such transformation can lead to the platform agglomeration effect,the inclusive diffusion effect,and the push-pull effect by highlighting the specific ways in which the digital economy disrupts the consumption-production model and contributes to the upgrading and transformation of traditional industries.Additionally,this paper demonstrates how the digital economy can expand and promote emerging business forms,providing insights into the ways in which digital innovation is reshaping the contemporary economic landscape.This study intends to provide several policy suggestions that can expand domestic demand,promote consumption,drive the high-quality and integrated development of China’s digital and real economy,and position China as a strong cyber and consumer nation by using digitalized consumption as a starting point.

Catalytic co-combustion of biomass and brown coal in a fluidized bed:Economic and environmental benefits

The work is devoted to the study of combustion of brown coal,pine sawdust,and their mixtures in a fluidized bed of catalyst at 600-750℃.It is shown that an increase in the content of sawdust in a mixture with brown coal leads to an increase in the burnout degree of solid fuel from 94.4%to 99.9%,while the emission of greenhouse gases in the form of CO_(2)CO and NOxis reduced(CO_(2)from the biomass is not included in the balance).The high content of alkaline earth metal oxides(CaO and MgO)in the mineral part of brown coal,sawdust,and their mixtures eliminates the emission of sulfur oxides and the slagging of heat-exchange surfaces during the combustion in a fluidized bed of catalyst.The optimal temperature,when the highest burnout degree of the above fuels is achieved in the combustion is 750℃.It is also shown that the increase in temperature and the content of sawdust in the composition of the fuel mixtures has a positive effect on the economic and environmental process indicators.

Economic and employment effects of China's power transition based on input‒output and scenario simulation

With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.

Research on the effect estimation of seismic safety evaluation

Seismic safety evaluation is a basic work for determining the seismic resistance requirements of major construc-tion projects. The effect, especially the economic effect of the seismic safety evaluation has been generally con-cerned. The paper gives a model for estimating the effect of seismic safety evaluation and calculates roughly the economic effect of seismic safety evaluation with some examples.

Primary Analysis of Development Approach to Chinese Satellite Mobile Communication

The paper describes the development of mobile communication first and then points out that it is necessary for China to develop satellite mobile communication after comparing the cellular mobile communication with the satellite mobile communication. After comparing the geostationary satellite system with the low earth orbit satellite mobile communication system, as well as the single-beam system with the multibeams system, both used in satellite mobile communication, we suggest that China, according to its economic status and level of satellite technology, should develop a geostationary multibeam satellite for its domestic mobile communication.

Industrialization, Modernization and Self-Organization

This paper studies the industrialization of China, a key problem of Chinese economic development with self-organization theory in system science. The dual economic structure of modern industry and traditional agriculture existing simultaneously is the typical economic structure for most developing countries. How can we break the dual economic structure? After China has carried out the peasant family output-related system of contracted responsibilities, the rural enterprises which develop swiftly and violently are setting up a bridge between traditional agriculture and modern industry. This paper models the triple economic structure formed by traditional agriculture, rural enterprises and modern industry. From the study of structure evolution, we obtain the important relationship between economic growth rate, the rate of technological progress, the growth rate of capital and the growth rate of population, deduce three critical points of population growth, and find out the conditions under which the national economic system forms a stable and orderly self-organized structure. On the basis of quantitative analysis, we propose an approach to the strategies of industrialization of China, especially to the problem of rural enterprise development and rural labor transfer, and give three conclusions and four developmental strategies about national economic system.

Assessing the Regional Economic Ripple Effect of Flood Disasters Based on a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Considering Traffic Disruptions

With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.

China's Economic Growth:The“Two-Dimensional Driving Effect”of Data Factors

Data factors have become one of the five essential production factors,but their role in economic growth has always been ambiguous.Starting from AI technologies,this paper establishes an endogenous growth model of data factors affecting economic growth,constructs the generation path and value path of data factors,and estimates the value of new data factors at the provincial level in China from 1999 to 2018 accordingly.Based on theoretical analyses and empirical tests,it clarifes that data factors have a“two-dimensional driving effect”on China's economic growth,that is,data factors can drive growth both directly through its own economic growth effect and indirectly by promoting technological progress.Furthermore,this paper makes three extended discussions,aiming to make a trial study on the impacts of local government big data transaction platforms on data factors and their growth effects,discuss whether it is possible to reduce the uncertainties of local economic policy based on the nature of data factors,and make a preliminary survey of the output elasticity of data factors between 1999 and 2018.

Flexible multidimensional modulation formats based on PM-QPSK constellations for elastic optical networks

We demonstrate flexible multidimensional modulation formats, polarization multiplexed k-symbol check quad- rature phase shift keying （PM-kSC-QPSK）, based on PM-QPSK constellations for elastic optical networks. The experimental results show a significant optical signal noise ratio （OSNR） tolerance improvement for PM-2SC- QPSK and PM-4SC-QPSK over PM-QPSK in both back-to-back and 500 km transmission scenarios at the expense of spectral efficiency reduction. This flexible modulation method can be used ＇in elastic optical networks to provide a trade-off between the spectral efficiency and OSNR tolerance.

China’s transitioning class identity

China’s rapid economic transformation is similar in some ways to those that have occurred in other East Asian nations.But the changing structure of perceived class identity that occurs in many rapidly growing economies is found to be absent in China,and in fact as China has continued to grow such change as has occurred is found to be downward,despite the immense material improvement there.Objective data on income distribution in China do not explain this phenomenon,but anomalies in China’s urban real-estate market might.