Economical Policy

China Import Duties of Alumina and Refined Copper to Be Cancelled in 2008;40 Thounsand Tons Molybdenum Smelting Project Commenced;China Began to Place Export Duties on Silicon;SiC Price Will Continue to Rise;Economic Running Conditions of China＇ s Iron and Steel, Non-ferrous, Building Material Industries During January - October.

Dynamic response pattern of gold prices to economic policy uncertainty

Based on a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model,the time-varying effects and country differences of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on gold prices from August 2006 to December 2017 were examined.The results show that the effects of global economic policy uncertainty(GEPU)shock on gold prices change over time.The changes were positive during 2006-2008 and 2013-2017,while the impacts were negative during 2009-2012,implying that the efficiency of gold as a safe haven is not stable and depends on economic conditions.There are significant country differences regarding the impact of EPU on the price of gold,particularly during the international financial crisis,European debt crisis and Trump election.During the international financial crisis,EPU exerts a positive impact on gold prices in most countries.During the European debt crisis,the impact of EPU on gold prices is mainly negative in the examined countries.While during the Trump election,the impact displays positive and negative alternating in most countries.

The role of R&D and economic policy uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s economic growth

In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.

Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID‑19 pandemic:does economic policy uncertainty matter?

This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.

Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH‑MIDAS model

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.

Preventing crash in stock market:The role of economic policy uncertainty during COVID‑19

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.

The impacts of agricultural and rural economic policy system on agricultural non-point source pollution in China

Agricultural and rural economic policy system is one main driving force for the evolvement of agricultural Non-Point Source （NPS） pollution. In this paper, the main policies that influence agricultural NPS pollution are chosen, and a method to evaluate the impacts of agricultural and rural economic policy system on agricultural NPS pollution is brought forward. According to this, the questions about how and to what degree the policy system influence on agricultural NPS pollution are discussed.

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

Market-Based Solutions to Overcapacity：Principles and Measures

This paper takes stock of theoretical economic analyses of overcapacity,reveals the factors that induce actual capacity to deviate from market equilibrium, examines market-based mechanisms to resolve overcapacity, and identifies long-term mechanisms and assurances for market-based solutions to overcapacity. Given the limitations of market mechanism and the government's role, neither the market nor the government is able to resolve the problem of overcapacity on its own. In resolving overcapacity, market and the government should play their respective roles rather than replace one another. While the market is a dominant force in regulating capacity and achieving supply and demand equilibrium, the government should provide institutional assurances for effective market operation. Market-based solutions to overcapacity require the government to provide institutional assurances and create a system where market entities decide to enter and exit the market under effective restraints and incentives with a clear boundary.

The Volatility of High-Yield Bonds Using Mixed Data Sampling Methods

It is well known that economic policy uncertainty prompts the volatility of the high-yield bond market.However,the correlation between economic policy uncertainty and volatility of high-yield bonds is still not clear.In this paper,we employ GARCH-MIDAS models to investigate their correlation with US economic policy uncertainty index and S&P high-yield bond index.The empirical studies show that mixed volatility models can effectively capture the realized volatility of high-yield bonds,and economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic factors have significant effects on the long-term component of high-yield bonds volatility.

Raising capital amid economic policy uncertainty:an empirical investigation

This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.

Bayesian analysis of time‑varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows

This study discusses the trading behavior of foreign investors with respect to economic uncertainty in the South Korean stock market from a time-varying perspective.We employ a news-based measure of economic uncertainty along with the model of time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility.The empirical analysis reveals several new findings about foreign investors’trading behaviors.First,we find evidence that positive feedback trading often appears during periods of high economic uncertainty,whereas negative feedback trading is exclusively observable during periods of low economic uncertainty.Second,the foreign investors’feedback trading appears mostly to be well-timed and often leads the time-varying economic uncertainty except in periods of global crises.Third,lagged negative(positive)response of net flows to economic uncertainty is found to be coupled with lagged positive(negative)feedback trading.Fourth,the study documents an asymmetric response of foreign investors with regard to negative and positive shocks of economic uncertainty.Specifically,we find that they instantly turn to positive feedback trading after a negative contemporaneous response of net flows to shocks of economic uncertainty.In contrast,they move slowly toward negative feedback trading after a positive response of net flows to uncertainty shocks.

A System of Simultaneous Equations (SEM) for the Study of the Effectiveness of the Japanese Monetary Policy

In this paper, the authors study the effectiveness of the Japanese monetary policy set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to contrast the three major crises that the country has experienced since the second half of the 90s: that of the lost decade, that of 2008 and that of the Covid-19 pandemic. To this end, they use a particular type of mathematical-statistical model that is widely applied today in the economic field, namely a simultaneous equation model (SEM). This simultaneous equation model is estimated through an Iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) using quarterly historical series in the sample period Q1 1994 - Q2 2020. All data are in real terms. The results, appropriately compared with those of other authors, suggest that the monetary policy has a (limited) impact only on the interbank market. The fiscal policy, instead, has a greater ability to influence the money supply, the private consumption and the inflation expectations.

Media Agenda and Citizen Perceptions About the Economic Crisis in Mexico： The Case of South-Center Area

This paper reports the role of national newspapers in the agenda setting process about the economical crisis in Mexico and its impact, as important mediators, in the public opinion, in a context of high social uncertainty. It has sought to know whether the responses of federal government economic policy have influenced the presidential level of acceptance and whether the adverse outcomes in federal elections intermediate reveal significant aspects in the electoral behavior of the population for presidential succession 2012. This involved measuring citizens perceptions and decisions before the reforms and their consequences, analyze government communication strategies to the crisis and assess the treatment and approaches news from three newspapers about the events concerning the public agenda. The analysis has focused on three states of the central-south of Mexico.

China's Mini-Stimulus Policy:Effects and Defects

China＇s mini-stimulus policy is justi^ed for some proven effects on economic stabilization. However, the policy should not be used on regular, long-term base. Mini- stimulus economic policy is still essentially investment-driven and by nature no different from the four trillion yuan stimulus package introduced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The policy strength of mini-stimulus packages the Chinese government resorted to has already accumulated to ascend to quite an extent. Further, ministimulus policy cannot stabilize growth and promote economic restructuring simultaneously. In fact, its effects on restructuring are short-term and may even be negative. Additionally, the diminishing potency of China＇s mini-stimulus policy efforts may force the government to resort to another hefty stimulus package with severe side effects. In the final analysis, it is social policy not economic stimuli that will help the Chinese economy achieve a soft landing.

Global Risk Appetite,US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.

The Process of Environmental Institutionalization in Mozambique

The late 1980s began a transition from a centrally planned economic system to a market economy in Mozambique. This transition was marked by a gradual decentralization of public administration and the cross consideration of environmental issues. In our times, research and environmental studies are globally centrals to multiples fields of knowledge, based on this we try to reflect on the process of institutionalization of environmental issues in Mozambique. Our goal is to analytically explorer the political, social and economic contours that allow characterizing the beginning of this process. This article is the result of exploratory research using the qualitative method of analysis. The results showed that the beginning of the environmental issue institutionalization process in Mozambique was the result of various government initiatives and financial demands inherent in the development process, and filled in rhetorical strategies of different styles and motives, being pierced by political conflicts and fmancial, both at the state level as the meagerly existing civil society in this period. In this paper, we present and analyzed the socio-historical circumstances that interspersed the process of environmental institutionalization, indicating exogenous and endogenous factors that proved decisive for the current environmental institutional status in Mozambique.

Causes and Solutions of Administrative Departments＇ Economic Policy Ineffectiveness

Administrative department, as the focus of national political system reform, is associated with optimization and adjustment of state institutions and plays a macro-control role in socialist economic development. Administrative departments, just the ＂government＂, conduct economic control function to promote the sustainable development of social economic causes. The thesis firstly introduces administrative departments＇ era effect and causes of administrative departments＇ economic policy ineffectiveness. And on the basis of these, the thesis comes up with some solutions to solve economic ineffectiveness, hoping that it would be helpful to relevant researches.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions

In recent years,the frequent adjustment of the government’s economic policies and the uncertainty of foreign economic situations have made the degree of uncertainty of China’s economic policies rise continuously.The increasing degree of policy uncertainty will inevitably affect the investment and financing decisions of micro enterprises.Then,how does economic policy uncertainty(EPU)affect mergers and acquisitions(M&A)behavior?What’s the mechanism?Based on the above questions,this paper uses the data of non-financial listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2018 as a sample to explore the relationship between EPU and M&A.The study shows that rising EPU will promote corporate M&A behavior,and this effect is more significant in slow-growth companies.The relationship between EPU and M&A is affected by corporate governance,stock price volatility and financing constraints.Specifically,the company’s M&A size is more sensitive to EPU with higher level of corporate governance,higher level of stock price volatility,and lesser financing constraints.Further research shows that the rise of EPU will significantly promote the improvement of M&A performance in the short-term,but this effect does not exist in the long-term.Various robustness checks do not change the empirical results of this paper.