Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.

The Real Source of China's Economic Growth

In this paper,the authors have made the following findings after the fitting of China's economic growth rate series using an improved STR model:since 1949,great changes have taken place in China's economic growth pattern but factor input remains to be the major source of China's economic growth,as reflected by the extensive pattern of economic growth;with the exception of capital,the marginal output of all other production factors has been on the increase,which suggests that the efficiency of China's factor allocation has been continuously improved;the marginal output of capital has been on the decline,which explains that the dependency on investment for economic growth has led to excessive investment;reform and opening up and reform of marketization have substantially increased the sustainability of China's economic growth.In addition,the authors have investigated the internal momentum of China's growth transformation and developed relevant policy recommendations.

Black or Green?Economic Growth Patterns in China under Low Carbon Economy Targets

Achieving dual goals of economic growth and carbon emission reduction is a major issue in China. In this paper we deifne three economic growth patterns （green growth, brown growth and black growth） according to the relationship between economic scale and carbon emissions, and then trace the historical trajectory of economic growth over the last 40 years. Granger causality is used to test China’s economic growth and carbon emission linkage. We argue that green growth means that the rate of carbon emission reduction is faster than the increase in GDP. When carbon intensity reduction is slower than GDP growth, brown growth occurs. Black growth occurs when both carbon intensity and economic scale increase. For China, we denote the four periods of black growth （1971–1977）, brown growth （1978–2001）, black growth （2002–2004）, and brown growth （2004–2010）. Granger causality tests indicate that mutual causality between carbon emissions and economic growth exists in the short term, but not the long term. In order to achieve the goals of economic growth and carbon intensity reduction, it is necessary for China to actively participate in global carbon reduction activities, technological innovation and ecological civilization construction.

The Relationship between Patterns of Economic Development and Increasing Carbon Emissions in Western China

With the implementation of the ＂Development of Western China＂ strategy, this region has become the fastest growing economic area in China. However, rapid economic growth has resulted in a substantial increase in carbon emissions and affected energy reduction goals. In order to effectively control the rapid increase in carbon emissions across western China, we need a comprehensively analyze the main factors causing these increases. Here, we analyze the relationship between economic development patterns and carbon emissions. The findings suggest that consumption upgrades and industrial transformation have a positive correlation with carbon emissions in this region. We then conducted an econometric FGLS analysis on the relationship and its transmission mechanism between economic growth and CO2 emissions with cross-province panel data from 1991 to 2009. A positive correlation was found, and the relationship is more significant after the implementation of the western development strategy. The influence coefficient of change in primary, secondary and tertiary industries is 16.4. The influence coefficient of increased share of heavy industry and extractive industry in the secondary industry is 14.3, and the influence coefficients of per-capita living expenditure and per capita traffic expenditure are 5.6 and 6.5. Traditional population size and income scale have a weak impact on carbon emissions, and the influence coefficients of population size and income scale are only 0.73 and 0.86. GDP increases have a second major impact on the carbon emissions. Energy intensity has a negative relationship with carbon emissions and urbanization level has a positive relationship （coefficients are -8.2 and 4.65）.