中国经济向何处去?

When analyzing the Chinese economy,one should not merely focus on surface phenomena,or be confined by a purely economic,partial,or static standpoint.Contrarily,we should uphold the stances and methodologies of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era to get a clear picture of the current state,future direction,overarching strategies,and specific approaches of the Chinese economy in the context of the long-term evolution of the global economic system and China's endeavors of building a great modern socialist country.Since the launch of reform and opening up in 1978,China has effectively modernized itself through economic development.Par ticularly,in the f irst decade of the new era,China laid down rock-solid foundations and expanded vast spaces for future economic development through systematic modernization.With the advent of the post-COVID-19 era,the Chinese economy has entered a phase of great transition,and the country has set a goal of achieving high-quality development through a new development patter n in three critical decades.This will be unprecedented in China's economic history,and its significance and implications for the global economic system will also be unseen.China's strengths in terms of system,supply,demand,and talent provide important guarantees for a successful economic transition.During the transition period,China will look economic competition squarely,continuing to deepen its opening up and reform.The Chinese economy is expected to stabilize and accumulate momentum in the short term,gradually lift off in the medium term,and have a bright future in the long term.To bring that bright future into reality,China needs to strike a good balance between two“great miracles,”two“new patterns,”two“major blocs,”and two“world orders.”Further capacity building is needed to strengthen the Communist Party of China,enhance scientific and technological innovation,build China into a financial powerhouse,cultivate good relationships worldwide,and uphold national security while creating the conditions for ensuring it.

Resource and Environmental Issues in Transitional China:A Perspective from the Interaction Among Market,Government and Society

Along with the rapid growth of economy in the postreform period after 1979,China has faced severe problems of resource overusing and environmental degradation which would threaten the sustainable development of economy and society.This article explores an effective mechanism of managing resource and environment in China.It examines some major resource and environmental issues,and constructs a framework of institution innovation to cover three sectors(government,market and society) . In addition,the article analyzes their experience and evaluation in resource management and environmental conservation during the transitional period.We argue that the combination of market regulation,government intervention and public participation is an effective way of allocating resource and protecting environment. Some suggestions are put forward to balance the relationship between them,including coordinating role of government and market,building platform for market operation and creating an atmosphere of public participation.

Patterns, processes, and differentiation mechanisms of China's transition from old to new economic drivers

Transition from old to new economic drivers(TONED) is of great significance for optimizing economic structures. Using a combination of methods including entropy weight technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, geospatial analysis, and optimal parameter geodetector, this study investigates the patterns and mechanisms of China's TONED in the prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2020. The findings reveal that(1) the TONED exhibited a spatial distribution characterized by higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west, along with a pyramidal hierarchy of levels. The distribution of hot and cold spots roughly followed the Heihe-Yulin line.(2) The informatization levels, openness to the outside world, and urbanization played a dominant role in the TONED. The types of dual-factor interactions exhibited both dual-factor enhancement and non-linear enhancement effects.(3) The eastern and central regions were more likely to promote the TONED through enhanced informatization levels, whereas the western region relied more on increasing openness. This study finds that the TONED results from the combined effects of three geographical natures, each playing a distinct role. The recommendations provided can serve as a reference for China and other developing countries to implement the TONED in the context of deglobalization.

Four Decades of China's Income Distribution Reform

Income gaps in China kept widening over the past four decades of economic transition. First, this paper describes the change in income gaps before and after reform and opening-up in 1978 and found that income gaps had been expanding between urban and rural areas, within cities and within the countryside. However, this did not lead to income polarization since low-income groups only had a slower income growth compared with highincome groups. The number of poor people continuously reduced thanks to rapid economic growth. Over the past decade, the widening of income gaps has been initially curbed. Accordingly, we explained the impact of economic transition on income distribution from the perspectives of market-based distribution, ownership structure, opening-up and internal income distribution. Lastly, this paper provides an in-depth analysis on urban-rural income gaps, excessive compensation in monopolistic sectors and income inequalities arising from corruption. To address these problems, it is important to enhance tax regulation, increase transfer payments to poor people, improve social security, equalize public services, enhance poverty relief and develop a fairer income distribution system.

The Contribution of Marketization to China＇s Economic Growth

Market-oriented economic transition since 1978 has led to remarkable economic development in China. In this study, we use the National Economic Research Institute （NERI） Index of Marketization and a panel data model to investigate the quantitative contributions of marketization to China＇s total factor productivity （TFP） and economic growth. Our results indicate that marketization contributed 1.45 percentage points on average to China＇s annual economic growth rate during the period from 1997 to 2007 and accounted for 39.2 percent of the increase in TFP. Marketization significantly improved resource allocation. However, economic transition in China has not yet been completed and sustainability of future growth will depend on further market-oriented reforms.

It Takes Two to Tango： Entrepreneurship and Creativity in Troubled Times--Vietnam 2012

This study focuses on perceived values of entrepreneurship and creativity within a turbulent environment. The initial hypothesis is that a typical entrepreneurial process carries with its ＂creativity-enabling elements＂. In a normal situation, businesses focus on optimizing their resources for commercial gains, thus perceptions about values of entrepreneurial creativity are usually vague. However, in difficult times, the difference between survival and failure may be creativity. This paper examines many previous findings on entrepreneurship and creativity, and suggests a highly possible ＂organic growth＂ of creativity in an entrepreneurial environment and reinforcing value of entrepreneurship when creativity power is present. In other words, the authors see each idea reinforcing the other. The authors survey Vietnamese firms during the chaotic year of 2012 to learn about the ＂entrepreneurship-creativity nexus＂, looking at influential cultural values, namely risk tolerance, relationship, and dependence on resources--to assess how they influence entrepreneurial decisions. A set of 137 qualified responses was obtained for this statistical examination. A categorical data analysis is performed to confirm that creativity and entrepreneurial spirit could hardly be separate, for both entrepreneurial and accomplished companies. Although the most important factor during implementation is still ＂relationship＂, business people are increasingly aware of the need of creativity/innovation in troubled times.

Changes of Wage Structures in Chinese Public and Private Sectors： 1995-2007

Using CHIP （Chinese Household Income Project Survey） data and the sample selection bias corrected wage function model, this paper estimated changes in wage structure in China by ownership types （SOEs, COEs, FEs, and PEs） in 1995 and 2007. The major conclusions are as follows. First, effects of education on wage levels in SOEs and FEs become greater, while education effects decrease in SOEs and PEs under economic transition periods; firm-specific human capital becomes more important in the wage determination mechanism along with market-oriented reforms in SOEs, PEs, and FEs; age effect decreases in SOEs and COEs, but it becomes greater in PEs and FEs. Second, there exist wage structure differences between sectors by wage distributions. For example, in 2007, in SOEs, education return rates are higher for the low-wage and middle-wage groups, and the effect is the highest at the 40th percentile. However in COEs and FEs, education return rates are higher for the high-wage groups, and the effect is the highest at the 70th percentile in COEs and at the 70th percentile in FEs. Tenure effects are greater in the middle-wage groups （40th-80th） in SOEs, COEs, and FEs, and age effects are greater in the low-wage groups （5th-30th） in SOEs, FEs, and PEs.

Material dependence of cities and implications for regional sustainability

Cities rely on massive amounts of physical,chemical,and biological resources to support their growth and metabolism.These‘metabolic inputs’are accumulated in cities to form material stocks in buildings,infrastructures,transportation facilities,and household appliances.This study takes China’s urbanization as an example to illustrate the characteristics of material stock changes in developing countries and compare them with those in developed countries.Results show that(1)material stocks have been growing in China,but have saturated in developed countries,and(2)the major components of urban metabolism are construction and industrial materials(e.g.,steel)in developing countries but biomass(e.g.,food)in developed countries.The changes in the magnitude and types of material stocks can not only measure urban development but also directly link city and its residents,offering advantages in representing urbanization over the existing indices such as population,land use,or gross domestic product(GDP).Given the new insights provided by material stock,we recommend to embrace it as a critical index of urbanization for guiding urban planning and policy-making.

Establishing a Carbon-Neutrality Oriented Economic System through Green, Low-carbon, and Circular Development

Carbon neutrality requires a profound socio-economic revolution.Since the 21;century,China has been promoting social&economic transformation,and put forward a series of strategic directions for development transformation.As China enters the new era of socialism,building a green,low-carbon and circular economic system has become an important direction for future economic development and transformation.This paper analyzes the relationship between the green,low-carbon and circular economic system and carbon neutrality,and points out that green development,low-carbon development and circular development will greatly reduce carbon emissions of economic development and help realize the carbon goal through co-benefit effect,structural adjustment and resource recycling.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions for promoting the transformation of the economic system to green,low-carbon and circular development.

Research on risk dodges of industrial structure readjustment in mining industry city

It was mainly research on the causes, manifestations, and risk dodges of the industry risk selection, industry structure dsk during the readjustment of the industrial structure and the establishment of the early-warning model of risk aversion.

Structural Deceleration,Financial Expansion and Policy Selection:China's Economic Prospects for 2014

China's economic performance in 2013 has verified that China's economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical.Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector.Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable.Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China's economic growth in 2013.But structural root cause of slowdown remains.According to cash flow statement,balance sheet and cross-border capital flow,risks of China's financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion.Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand.Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform,including political reform,reform of supply mechanism,balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition,and reform of financial system.

The Evolution of the Use of Space:Lessons from Beijing

Specific changes in land use can,and often do,occur when any social economic system moves from one form to another.When traditional societies transit from traditional land uses to philosophically determined land uses,as in the case ofthe introduction of socialism or the transition from system ofplanned economy to a market system,suchchanges seem concentrated and perhaps exacerbated.Certainly,such circumstances provide the opportunity to see the process of social philosophy and its impact upon land use in a telescoped fashion.The discovery and explanation of these elements might provide some insight into basic human behavior, and its relationship to social control and how people organize space both with and without control. This paper presents the results of observations of changes in land useas they have occurred during the course of transitional economic development in Beijing, China for the past decade.It suggests three new generic categories that can be applied to any culture or society.

Urban land development intensity:New evidence behind economic transition in the Yangtze River Delta,China

Over the past 20 years,China has experienced multiple economic transitions characterized by marketization,globalization,decentralization,and urbanization;as a result,urban land development intensity(ULDI)has become a significant issue for sustainable development.As China’s largest globalized urban area,the rapid socio-economic development of the Yangtze River Delta has created a huge demand for urban land.We apply a theoretical framework for a four-dimensional analysis tool to understand the dynamic evolution of the ULDI in the context of economic transition.It reveals that marketization,globalization,decentralization,and urbanization affect the ULDI in the economic transition of Yangtze River Delta.Marketization,especially the continuous improvement of land marketization,optimizes the spatial allocation of land resources and encourages urban land users to improve ULDI.Globalization promotes the rapid growth of economy and population through an increase in foreign direct investment.In the process of decentralization,local governments rely on developing a mode of land finance,resulting in a disordered urban space and low ULDI.Population growth and agglomeration during urbanization stimulates residents’consumption capacity and promotes economic growth,thus creating a greater demand for urban land.However,a low level of development and utilization restricts the improvement of development intensity.Economic development can improve the level of land-intensive use by promoting the adjustment,optimization,and upgrade of urban industrial structures.

Contemporary Russia's Economic Transition and Development and China-Russia Economic and Trade Cooperation

The year 2021 marks the 30th anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Russia’s transition from a planned to a market economy.It is also the 25th anniversary of the announcement of a strategic partnership of cooperation between China and Russia and the 20th anniversary of the signing of the China-Russia Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation.Therefore,2021 is especially important both in terms of the development of contemporary Russia and the evolution of China-Russia relations.As the transitional economy of a great power,the Russian economy has distinctive characteristics;analysis of its economic transition and development over the past thirty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union,and especially in the period since Putin took office,is of immediate significance for observing the development of the Russian economy.At present,the profound changes the world is undergoing and alterations in the external environment present increasing uncertainties and obstacles to China-Russia economic and trade cooperation.This paper introduces the present state of China-Russia economic and trade cooperation and analyzes the new challenges and opportunities for future bilateral cooperation.

On Social-technical Control of Safety Development in Economic Transition Background

Industrial safety and economic growth, two vital and inextricable forces affecting national culture and development, are worthy of much more interest and attention than this article can hope to generate. Following economic growth, industrial safety remains as a high priority in this nation's quest for sustainable development.At present, while China is on its way to transforming its economic structure and growth models, talk of industrial safety appears with special regularity, for it also is undergoing profound changes as an important facet of modern China.

Credit Systems for the Rural Poorin the Economic Transition of China:Institutions, Outreach, and Policy Options

Siniceundertakingmarket-orientedreformsinthelate1970s,Chinahasenjoyedrapideconomicgrowthandasubstantialreductioninpoverty.Asaresultthecountry’sfinancialsystemisunderincreasingpressuretoadjusttotheneweconomicoutlook.RuralChina,forinstance,lacksacompre...

Rural-urban Migration and Dynamics of Income Distribution in China:A Non-parametric Approach

Extending the income dynamics approach in Quah （2003）, the present paper studies the enlarging income inequality in China over the past three decades from the viewpoint of rural-urban migration and economic transition. We establish non-parametric estimations of rural and urban income distribution functions in China, and aggregate a population- weighted, nationwide income distribution function taking into account rural-urban differences in technological progress and price indexes. We calculate 12 inequality indexes through non-parametric estimation to overcome the biases in existingparametric estimation and, therefore, provide more accurate measurement of income inequalitY. Policy implications have been drawn based on our research.