Currencies of greater interest for central Asian economies:an analysis of exchange market pressure amid global and regional interdependence

Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization.Monetary authorities in CAEs,(already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy)have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization.This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs.The results,based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model,have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD,Euro,Ruble,and Renminbi.The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.Overall,the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs.The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime(inflation targeting regime)is not in favor of CAEs,and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.

Toward a sustainable growth path in Arab economies:an extension of classical growth model

Background/Objectives:Many economies are on the trajectory of alternative growth drivers other than conventional capital and labor.Access to credit facilities is a pertinent indicator of economic growth.In line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(UNSDGs-8)agenda,the national goal for sustainable development for most economies and Arab economies is no exception.Therefore,the current study adopts a traditional growth model by exploring the relationship between gross domestic product(GDP)per capita,credit for private sectors,ratio of exports,real GDP,and per labor force participants for selected Arab economies annually from 2001 to 2020.Research design:This study leverages the Fourier Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin(KPSS)unit root test and second-generation panel econometrics as estimation techniques,such as Westerlund and Edgerton panel cointegration test,and the use of two estimators,namely the augmented mean group(AMG)and common correlated error mean group(CCEMG),to obtain robust results.Findings:Empirical findings from Westerlund and Edgerton panel cointegration tests validate the long-run equilibrium relationship among the outlined variables.Further empirical results indicate that the share of exports is negatively significant with economic growth in countries such as Kuwait,Lebanon,Tunisia,and Jordan.Additionally,savings and labor force participation have a positive relationship with economic growth in individual countries such as Algeria and Bahrain.As per the panel,there is no significant relationship between labor force participation and economic growth.This indicates that the skilled labor force enhanced economic growth.Conclusions:These findings come with inherent far-reaching policy suggestions for economies and panels.Further details on country-specific policy actions are presented in the concluding section.

Scale and scope economies in small household rice farming in Vietnam

The Vietnamese agricultural sector has experienced a dramatic structural change based on increased specialization in rice cultivation.However,small-scale rice-farmers have continued to grow multiple crops,especially in less developed provinces.While the literature advocates crop diversification for reasons of both economic and ecological sustainability,there lacks empirical evidence as to whether crop diversification brings efficiency and productivity gains to small farms.The present study is the first applications of the input-oriented stochastic distance function approach in estimating scale and scope economies using data of multi-crop farming households in Vietnam.We find strong evidence of product-specific economies of scale.Scope economies are also present for rice,vegetable,and other annual crop production.This suggests that crop diversification enhances efficiency and productivity.However,there still exists significant technical inefficiency in crop production,indicating opportunities to expand farm output at the existing level of inputs and technologies.More specifically,our empirical results indicate that it is desirable to expand vegetable and other annual crop production in mountainous areas while rice cultivation can be further expanded in delta and coastal regions.

The Thinking of Financing under Dual Economies Character In Medium & Small Enterprises

In China,the dual economies show prominence in financial field.It leads to the serious dual credit ration and becomes one of the main cause which makes financing in medium & small sized enterprises becomes harder and harder.On basis of this situation,we theoretically pose that we can alleviate the difficulty through the dual cooperation of financial control and the deepening of finance.

A Note on an Economic Lot-sizing Problem with Perishable Inventory and Economies of Scale Costs:Approximation Solutions and Worst Case Analysis

This paper presents an economic lot-sizing problem with perishable inventory and general economies of scale cost functions. For the case with backlogging allowed, a mathematical model is formulated, and several properties of the optimal solutions are explored. With the help of these optimality properties, a polynomial time approximation algorithm is developed by a new method. The new method adopts a shift technique to obtain a feasible solution of subproblem and takes the optimal solution of the subproblem as an approximation solution of our problem. The worst case performance for the approximation algorithm is proven to be （4√2 ＋ 5）/7. Finally, an instance illustrates that the bound is tight.

Preventive Countermeasures for "Immiserizing Growth in Expanding Economies" in China's Rural Areas in the New Era

On the basis of defining the concept of "immiserizing growth in expanding economies",through analysing the status quo of economy in China's rural areas in the new era,this paper aims to find out the factors responsible for economic weakness of China's rural residents.It analyses the impact of market consuming economy on growth economy,and points out the phenomenon of "immiserizing growth in expanding economies" which may be triggered by China's rapid rural economic growth as follows:first,the income disparity between urban and rural residents increases ceaselessly,the commodity prices continuously soar,and the rural residents' market consuming capacity is short;second,the wealth concentrates highly and the majority of farmers' income is low.Thus we put forward the countermeasures and proposals for preventing "immiserizing growth in expanding economies" in rural areas as follows:we should reform household registration system so that the rural residents have the right to migrate freely,and farmers' status is promoted;we should coordinate urban-rural development,strengthen agriculture and rural infrastructure building and achieve impartial allocation of public resources;we should carry out redistribution on income scientifically and effectively,consolidate rural social security system,bridge urban-rural income gap,transform the comparative advantage into competitive advantage,so as to circumvent "immiserizing growth in expanding economies".

Whether Can RCEP Cooperation in Digital Economy Raise New “Tiger Cub” Economies

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)is the world’s largest regional trade agreement,signed by ten ASEAN countries and five regional trade partners.In January 2022,the RCEP officially took effect,which not only marks the triumph of multilateral cooperation,but more importantly,will be significant contributor to global economy.At present,facing the wave of digital globalization,RCEP could put more emphasis on the international cooperation in technology innovation,digital infrastructure,and cross-border e-commerce,making digital economy boost RCEP’s goal to deeper economic integration.Member states can achieve long term success through jointly establishing cooperation mechanism on digital economy,and working to build community with digital sharing for RCEP parties,which also help revive economic strength in the big recession caused by COVID-19 pandemic.Furthermore,this study finds that the former“Tiger Cub”economies which are Indonesia,Thailand,Malaysia,and Philippines stand a credible chance of becoming the new“Tiger Cub”economies in Asia-Pacific,for their rapidly rising digital markets.

Determinants of foreign direct investment in fast-growing economies: evidence from the BRICS and MINT countries

The flow of foreign direct investment(FDI)into a country can benefit both the investing entity and host government.This study employed panel analysis to examine the factors that determine the direction of FDI to the fast-growing BRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa)and MINT(Mexico,Indonesia,Nigeria,and Turkey)countries.First,we used a pooled time-series cross sectional analysis of data from 2001 to 2011 to estimate and model the determinants of FDI for three samples:BRICS only,MINT only,and BRICS and MINT combined.Then,a fixed effects approach was employed to provide the model for BRICS and MINT combined.The results demonstrate that market size,infrastructure availability,and trade openness play the most significant roles in attracting FDI to BRICS and MINT,while the roles of availability of natural resources and institutional quality are insignificant.To sustain and promote FDI inflow,the governments of BRICS and MINT must ensure that their countries remain attractive for investment by offering a level playing field for investors and political stability.BRICS and MINT governments also need to invest more in their human capital to ensure that their economies can absorb substantial skills and technology spillovers from FDI and promote sustainable long-term economic growth.This study is significant because it contributes to the literature on determinants of FDI by extending the scope of previous studies that often focused on BRICS only.

Prediction of Potential Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Selected Emerging Economies Using Artificial Neural Network

Tackling future global emissions of carbon dioxide is a daunting task. Different black box models have been used to determine the trajectories of CO2 emissions and other carbon stocks. Trajectories are important because climate modelers use them to project future climate under higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In this paper, fully connected two-layer feed-forward neural network with tangent activation function that comes with hidden neurons as well as linear output neurons was used. The study applied classical nonlinear least squares algorithm such as LM (Levenberg-Marquardt), to predict potential emissions of selected emerging economies. Building the model on the basis of input variables such as crop production, livestock production, trade imports, trade exports, economic growth, renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption. These variables are considered to affect the ecosystems of high rising economic power states. The main idea is to ensure that emerging economies have a clear understanding of expected future emissions so that appropriate measures can be implemented to mitigate its impact. Data for the analysis were obtained from 1971 to 2013 from World Development Indicators and FAOSTAT database. Results indicate an achievement of training performance at epoch 11 when the value of the MSE (Mean Square Error) is 0.0003345 which indicates that the model errors are less than 0.05. Hence, the study concluded that the applied model is capable of predicting potential carbon dioxide emissions in emerging economies with the greatest precision.

Universal Health Coverage: Factoring Successful Economies

Countries are seeking to diversify sources of revenue for Universal Health Coverage (UHC), and strategies vary among countries at different stages on the road to UHC. The study tends to document these trade-offs by factoring successful economies across the globe. A review of peer-reviewed literature retrieved country-wise on the basis of successful UHC economies to establish the major factor associated with development of UHC. Political will has been recognized as one of the critical factors. Overcoming barriers associated with development of an adequate and sustainable financing mechanism and selecting the right package of services are other essential determinants. Reaching vulnerable groups and efficient use of resources were other factors that contributed to UHC development in Mexico and south-east Asian countries. UHC development is at threshold where nations should learn from one another, especially from those systems which appear to be doing better, and are more prepared to innovate, test and evaluate new approaches.

Global Emerging Economies:Development Realities and Prospects

Economic globalization has catalyzed the global flow of economic factors and set the stage for the rise of fast-developing emerging economies with worldwide influence.Research has found that the emerging economies of China,Brazil,Russia,India,and South Africa have experienced significantly varying changes in their per capita GDP over time.Over the past decade,China has maintained a steady rate of economic growth with subdued volatility.In contrast,Brazil,Russia,India,and South Africa have all registered more volatility in their rates of growth.China has no significant correlation with other emerging economies in terms of imports and exports in goods and services and foreign direct investment(FDI),and their mutual influences are not evident.Going forward,for sustainable socio-economic development,China needs to optimize its industrial structure,promote the enhancement of ecological and institutional environments,and bring about all-round socio-economic progress,by initiating a new round of opening up at a higher level,broadening the space for international cooperation,building an open economy,promoting equal opportunity,and pursuing an inclusive path of growth.

Corporate Probability of Default(PD)Modelling for Banks in Emerging Economies:A Case Study of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE)Listed Counters

The paper extends Merton’s Probability of Default(PD)model to the case for transaction costs or market friction for estimation of the PDs of listed banking corporations.A closed form formula for the PD model is obtained and validated using financial data drawn from banks listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE).It has been observed that most corporations in emerging economies have been finding it extremely difficult to list,continue listed or manage risk emanating from credit exposures undertaken.In the absence of risk the role of the financial sector of an economy to efficiently and effectively allocate resources between the public and private sectors would be simplified,economically and rationally determined.Reliable or precise computation of the Probability of Default(PD)of a borrower is one of the most critical tasks in credit risk management for commercial banks that were applying the Internal Rating Based Approach(IRBA)under the Basel Capital Accords Ⅱ and Ⅲ frameworks.The study sought to develop a Probability of Default(PD)model that banking corporations in emerging economies such as Zimbabwe could adopt and implement in the Multiple Currency System(MCS)in their desire to grow and develop through their lending businesses.The research study adopted a PD model similar to the Asset Valuation Model(AVM)by Merton(1974)and initially extended by Black-Scholes(1973)and Crouhy et al.(2000)and applied it on a basket of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange listed counters after having adjusted the model for the transaction cost variable.The study therefore succeeded in coming up with a PD model that was worth adopting and implementing by Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE)listed corporations in their desire to grow towards sustainable development.It was realised that a contemporary PD model adjusted for transaction cost is pertinent for reflection of practical conditions banks face in estimation of their risk metrics such as PD.Transaction costs faced by banks in emerging economies are very huge that they cannot be assumed to be insignificant when it comes to valuation of PDs of banking corporations.The inclusion of transaction costs in estimation of PDs of ZSE listed banks is likely to create a paradigm shift in financial theory on risk metrics in the modern world.The study ends by recommending the need for all Zimbabwean listed corporations to adopt and implement an AVM adjusted for transaction costs if they were to successfully measure and manage both their investment and credit exposure endeavours in the multiple currency system period.

Complementary Economies

IKENNA Emewu didn＇t expect he would hit the headlines in China. The Great Hail of the People in Beijing was packed with ）ournalists attending the press conference of the Fourth Session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People＇s Political Consultative Conference （CPPCC）. China＇s top political advisory body. on March 2. From the hundreds of people there, the Nigerian was chosen to ask CPPCC National Committee spokesperson Wang Guoqing a question.

Economic recovery in Greater China—Surveys in Hong Kong and China's Mainland predict a positive outlook for both economies

Two surveys conducted in Hong Kong and China's Mainland reveal predictions of a quick recovery ahead for both economies.The surveys were conducted by CPA Australia,with the Hong Kong survey jointly sponsored by Deloitte China and CPA Australia’s Hong Kong China division.

The Environmental Impacts of Informal Economies in China: Inverted U-shaped Relationship and Regional Variances

This paper aims to the debate on the nexus between informal economies and the environment by investigating the long-term dynamic impacts of China’s informal economies on pollution and considering regional differences in informal economies’ pollution.This paper uses the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes(MIMIC) model to estimate the size of informal economies and employs econometric models to examine their relationships to pollution based on provincial-level panel data from 2000 to 2017. The results indicate that informal economies’ effects on environmental pollution are not purely positive or negative. Rather, our model indicates that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between informal economies and pollution in the long run in China;this means that the level of environmental pollution increases at first and then decreases with the growth of informal economies. Further analysis shows that while this inverted, U-shaped relationship is significant in different regions of China, it is affected by different environmental impact factors. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications for environmental protection and sustainable development.

IS CHINA LEARNING FROM ITS NEIGHBORS? A COMPARISON OF OVERSEAS INVESTMENT BETWEEN CHINA AND OTHER EAST ASIAN ECONOMIES

Twenty years’ economic reform and open door practice have made China not only an important host nation to foreign direct investment (FDI), but also the largest FDI home nation among the developing countries. In fact, since the late 1980s, the Chinese government has not simply put its effort into exporting  made-in-China" products to earn foreign currency or into encouraging foreign inward capital, but also actively encouraged its manufacturers to invest overseas. This paper examines China’s outward FDI and poses the question to what degree China is expected to follow the other East Asian economies or will it forge its own particular patterns. The first section of this paper reviews the characteristics of FDI of China’s neighbors and then it turns to examine the spatial patterns of and motivations for China’s FDI. Finally, this paper looks at potential of China’s outward investment in the near future. It concludes that China is not Japan but its potential for further outward FDI is huge. With its WTO membership and growing economy, China will become the second to Japan or USA. It will also use its financial power to further contain Taiwan’s independence.

MINIMAL ESSENTIAL SETS AND ESSENTIAL COMPONENTS OF THE EQUILIBRIA OF PRODUCTION ECONOMIES

The purpose of this paper is to give a further study on the stability of production economies. The new results were given by considering the 'set-valued' stability of equilibria. It is proved that there exists at least one minimal essential set of equilibrium points of the economy and every minimal essential set is connected. Based on these results, it is easy to prove that there is at least one essential component of the set of equilibrium points.

A New GLKKM Theorem and Its Application to Abstract Economies

In this paper,a new GLKKM theorem in L-convex spaces is established.As applications,a new fixed point theorem and a maximal element theorem are obtained in Lconvex spaces.Finally,equilibrium existence theorems for economies and qualitative games in L-convex spaces are yielded.

Selection of Mergers and Acquisitions by Foreign Capital in Open Economies

By a linear Cournot model, the factors associated with the integration of two firms are discussed in terms of their effects on the private surplus and the social welfare in economies with varying extent of openness. Meanwhile, the trade policy of the host government is taken into account. It is concluded that the more open the economy and the more intense the competition, the less profitable the integration; the most important determinant to the changes of the domestic social welfare is the industry strength of the host country. The host authority can enhance the domestic social welfare in two ways： to adjust the trade policy and to only approve the socially desirable cross-border mergers and acquisitions.

China＇s Agricultural Modernization and Economies of Scale： Barriers and Solutions

This paper identifies three stages in China's agricultural development with reference to macroeconomic development and international experience.While the first two stages focused on ensuring food security and raising farmer's income,the current stage must give priority to modernizing agricultural production.The lack of progress in this area is due to the following reasons:diminishing return to capital as a result of small and scattered farming operation which has compromised agricultural competitiveness;agriculture is overdependent on subsidy and protection under the conventional wisdom of the uniqueness of agriculture.This paper attempts to reveal the barriers to China s agricultural modernization and proposes recommendations on reforming the land and household registration systems to increase the economies of scale and productivity.