Understanding the relationship between rainfall anomalies and large-scale systems is critical for driving adaptation and mitigation strategies in socioeconomic sectors. This study therefore aims primarily to investiga...Understanding the relationship between rainfall anomalies and large-scale systems is critical for driving adaptation and mitigation strategies in socioeconomic sectors. This study therefore aims primarily to investigate the correlation between rainfall anomalies in Rwanda during the months of September to December (SOND) with the occurrences of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The study is useful for early warning and forecasting of negative effects associated with extreme rainfall anomalies across the country, using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis sea surface temperature and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, during the period of 1983-2021. Both empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis and composite analysis were used to delineate variability, relationship and the related atmospheric circulation between Rwanda seasonal rainfall September to December (SOND) with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results for Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) for the reconstructed rainfall data set showed three modes. EOF-1, EOF-2 and EOF-3 with their total variance of 63.6%, 16.5% and 4.8%, Indian ocean dipole (IOD) events resulted to a strong positive correlation of rainfall anomalies and Dipole model index (DMI) (r = 0.42, p value = 0.001, DF = 37) significant at 95% confidence level. The composite analysis for the reanalysis dataset was carried out to show the circulation patterns during four different events correlated with September to December seasonal rainfall in Rwanda using T-test at 95% confidence level. Wind anomaly revealed that there was a convergence of south westerly winds and easterly wind over the study area during positive Indian Ocean Diploe (PIOD) and PIOD with El Nino concurrence event years. The finding of this study will contribute to the enhancement of SOND seasonal rainfall forecasting and the reduction of vulnerability during IOD (ENSO) event years.展开更多
A class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the method of variational iteration for perturbation theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO mode...A class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the method of variational iteration for perturbation theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic behaviour of solution for corresponding problem is considered.展开更多
-Using the COADS data set of sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, thirty one El Nino events and twenty four anti -El Nino events were identified for the period from 1854 to 1987. The results were...-Using the COADS data set of sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, thirty one El Nino events and twenty four anti -El Nino events were identified for the period from 1854 to 1987. The results were compared with those of the other authors. The El Nino events (or anti -El Nino events ) are classified into two groups according to the timing of occrrence of the events: one starts at the first half of a year, another begins at the second half of a year. Both 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 events fall into the second group, which are characterized by the eastward migration of the positive anomaly of the sea surface temperature and the significant increasing of the anomaly in September or October.展开更多
Based on the monthly mean OLR, geopotential height and wind data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data sets for 1982-1996, the atmospheric teleconnection associated with the warm pool of the tropical western Pacific and ...Based on the monthly mean OLR, geopotential height and wind data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data sets for 1982-1996, the atmospheric teleconnection associated with the warm pool of the tropical western Pacific and Asian monsoon region during E1 Nino and non-El Nino years are studied diagnostically in this paper. It is found that, the teleconnection pattern caused by the activity of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) emanates from the Asian monsoon region to the tropical eastern Pacific via the Aleutians in summer of the El Nino years. In the non-El Nino years, however, the ASM-related teleconnection pattern stretches northward and westward from the Asian monsoon region, exerting its influences mainly on the circulation over middle and high latitude rather than that over the tropical eastern Pacific. Evidences also show that the anomalous convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool leads to the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the non-El Nino years. It is interesting to note that the teleconnection in the 500 height field associated with the warm pool convection disappears in the El Nino years. The differences of the teleconnection pattern between the El Nino years and the non-El Nino years suggest that the activities of the ASM and the convection over the warm pool of the tropical western Pacific, the most energetic weather events in boreal summer, are intertwined and interactive with other global-scale circulation in different ways under different climate backgrounds.展开更多
Monthly mean zonal wind data from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting(ECMWF) t'or December 1982, April 1983, October 1984 and ApriI 1985 are used in numerical integration as thebasic flow in a...Monthly mean zonal wind data from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting(ECMWF) t'or December 1982, April 1983, October 1984 and ApriI 1985 are used in numerical integration as thebasic flow in a non-linear critical-layer model. The subtropical high is extensive and limited in number if simulated with the basic now in December 1982 and April 1983. It consists of 2 to 3 cells that move westward at alloscillatory periods of 1~ 2 months. The subtropical high, simulated with the basic flow in October 1984 and April1 985. is weak and small in coverage, or distributed in strips that contain up to 4 cells. The high. merged or spillover a short time. is moving westward. The years 1982 ~ 1983 are a process of EI Nino while the years 1984- 1985one of La Nina. lt is known from the chart of energy flux that it oscillates by a much larger amplitude and longerperiod in the El Nino year than in the La Nina year. All the results above have indicated that the basic now' in theEl Nino year is enhancing the subtropical high lagging by about 4 months and that in the La Nina year is decay'ing it. It is consiStent with the well-known observational fact that the SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacitlc ispositively correlated with the extent and intensity of the subtropical high in west Pacific lagging by 1 ~2 seasons.The result is also important for further study of the formation, maintenance and oscillation of the subtropicalhigh.展开更多
The features of large-scale circulation, storm tracks and the dynamical relationship between them were examined by investigating Rossby wave breaking （RWB） processes associated with Eastern Pacific （EP） and Centra...The features of large-scale circulation, storm tracks and the dynamical relationship between them were examined by investigating Rossby wave breaking （RWB） processes associated with Eastern Pacific （EP） and Central Pacific （CP） E1-Nifio. During EP E1-Nino, the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa （Z500） exhibits a Pacific-North America （PNA） pattern. During CP EI-Nifio, the Z500 anomaly shows a north positive-south negative pattern over the North Pacific. The anomalous distributions of baroclinicity and storm track are consistent with those of upper-level zonal wind for both EP and CP EI-Nino, suggesting impacts of mean flow on storm track variability. Anticyclonic wave breaking （AWB） oczurs less frequently in EP EI-Nino years, while cyclonic wave breaking （CWB） occurs more frequently in CP EI-Nino years over the North Pacific sector. Outside the North Pacific, more CWB events occur over North America during EP Ei-NiNo. When AWB events occur less frequently over the North Pacific during EP EI-Nino, Z500 decreases locally and the zonal wind is strengthened （weakened） to the south （north）. This is because AWB events reflect a monopoie high anomaly at the centroid of breaking events. When CWB events occur more frequently over the North Pacific under CP EI-Nino conditions, and over North America under EP EI-Nino condition, Z500 increases （decreases） to the northeast （southwest）, since CWB events are related to a northeast-southwest dipole Z500 anomaly. The anomalous RWB events act to invigorate and reinforce the circulation anomalies over the North Pacific-North America region linked with the two types of EI-Nino.展开更多
In this article the authors have studied the stability analysis and chaos control of the fractional order Vallis and El-Nino systems. The chaos control of these systems is studied using nonlinear control method with t...In this article the authors have studied the stability analysis and chaos control of the fractional order Vallis and El-Nino systems. The chaos control of these systems is studied using nonlinear control method with the help of a new lemma for Caputo derivative and Lyapunov stability theory.The synchronization between the systems for different fractional order cases and numerical simulation through graphical plots for different particular cases clearly exhibit that the method is easy to implement and reliable for synchronization of fractional order chaotic systems. The comparison of time of synchronization when the systems pair approaches from standard order to fractional order is the key feature of the article.展开更多
The analyses on the responses of partial pressure difference between sea and air (PCO2), and total dissolved CO2 concentration (TCO2), to abnormal air-sea event in different seasons, were based on observational data m...The analyses on the responses of partial pressure difference between sea and air (PCO2), and total dissolved CO2 concentration (TCO2), to abnormal air-sea event in different seasons, were based on observational data measured during cruises from Nov. 1986 to Dec 1997 in area of 22°N - 18°N, 114°E-130°E. The results indicated that in every season, TCO2 was high and PCO2 was positive during onset and mature period of El Nino, but they were low and negative respectively during La Nina. Before and after El Nino, partial pressure of CO2 in the sea and air were in the state of equilibrium. Both PCO2 (air) and PCO2 (air) had same responses to E1 Nino in each season. PCO2 (air) and PCO2 (sw) were high during mature period of El Nino were low before and in onset period of El Nino PCO2 and PCO2 (sw) reached peak value during E1 Nino and variation of PCO2 and PCO2 (sw) were same The mean exchange of CO2 from sea to air (flux) reached peak value during El Nino in autumn, and decreased during La Nina. Before and after El Nino the flux is weak, but in opposite direction from air to sea. According to the 1986-1993 average the characteristics of response of TCO2 anomaly to El Nino and La Nina and the range of outstanding variation in different season were discussed. From above it can be deduced some signals showing ENSO event as follows: in Oct.1995, El Nino of 91/95 was over: In May 1995 it is before a new El Nino: In July 1997 it is in onset of new El Nino; In Dec.1997 it is in the mature stage of E1 Nino event.展开更多
An extreme warming hit Europe in summer of the year 2015. The present paper investigates the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and El-Nino 3.4 and heat w...An extreme warming hit Europe in summer of the year 2015. The present paper investigates the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and El-Nino 3.4 and heat waves that persist over the western and central Europe in the summer of 2015. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis daily dataset of the mean surface air temperature for the domains of the western and central Europe for summer months (June, July and August) of the year, 2015 has used. In addition, the time cross-section analysis of the daily gridded operational data for the mean surface air temperature over the western and central Europe from 1 June to 31 August 2015 has done. Moreover, daily datasets of the NAO, SOI, and El-Nino 3.4 for that period have used. The time series, time cross section, anomaly and correlation coefficient techniques are used to analyze the data sets. The results revealed that the cases of heat waves that existed over the western and central Europe through the summer season of the year 2015 were controlled distinctly by the negative phase of the NAO and positive phase of ENSO.展开更多
-In this paper, the outset, evolution and intensity of El Nino were analyzed. Different features were found in each El Nino process. The El Nino of 1986 was also analyzed and outlined.
通过对近百年 El Nino/ L a Nina事件与北京气候相关性研究发现 ,El Nino/ L aNina事件与北京夏季 ( 6～ 8月 )降水、平均最高气温 ( 7月 )和冬季 ( 1月 )平均最低气温之间相互关系显著。 El Nino事件与夏季降水、冬季平均最低气温呈负...通过对近百年 El Nino/ L a Nina事件与北京气候相关性研究发现 ,El Nino/ L aNina事件与北京夏季 ( 6～ 8月 )降水、平均最高气温 ( 7月 )和冬季 ( 1月 )平均最低气温之间相互关系显著。 El Nino事件与夏季降水、冬季平均最低气温呈负相关 ,与夏季平均最高气温呈正相关 ,造成降水减少 ,气温年较差增大 ,大陆性增强的气候特点。L a Nina事件与夏季降水、冬季平均最低气温呈正相关 ,与夏季平均最高气温呈负相关 ,使降水增加 ,气温年较差减小 。展开更多
文摘Understanding the relationship between rainfall anomalies and large-scale systems is critical for driving adaptation and mitigation strategies in socioeconomic sectors. This study therefore aims primarily to investigate the correlation between rainfall anomalies in Rwanda during the months of September to December (SOND) with the occurrences of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The study is useful for early warning and forecasting of negative effects associated with extreme rainfall anomalies across the country, using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis sea surface temperature and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, during the period of 1983-2021. Both empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis and composite analysis were used to delineate variability, relationship and the related atmospheric circulation between Rwanda seasonal rainfall September to December (SOND) with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results for Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) for the reconstructed rainfall data set showed three modes. EOF-1, EOF-2 and EOF-3 with their total variance of 63.6%, 16.5% and 4.8%, Indian ocean dipole (IOD) events resulted to a strong positive correlation of rainfall anomalies and Dipole model index (DMI) (r = 0.42, p value = 0.001, DF = 37) significant at 95% confidence level. The composite analysis for the reanalysis dataset was carried out to show the circulation patterns during four different events correlated with September to December seasonal rainfall in Rwanda using T-test at 95% confidence level. Wind anomaly revealed that there was a convergence of south westerly winds and easterly wind over the study area during positive Indian Ocean Diploe (PIOD) and PIOD with El Nino concurrence event years. The finding of this study will contribute to the enhancement of SOND seasonal rainfall forecasting and the reduction of vulnerability during IOD (ENSO) event years.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 90111011 and 10471039）, the National Key Basic Research Special Foundation of China （Grant Nos 2003CB415101-03 and 2004CB418304）, the Key Basic Research Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences （Grant No KZCX3-SW-221） and in part by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission （Grant No N.E03004）.
文摘A class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the method of variational iteration for perturbation theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic behaviour of solution for corresponding problem is considered.
文摘-Using the COADS data set of sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, thirty one El Nino events and twenty four anti -El Nino events were identified for the period from 1854 to 1987. The results were compared with those of the other authors. The El Nino events (or anti -El Nino events ) are classified into two groups according to the timing of occrrence of the events: one starts at the first half of a year, another begins at the second half of a year. Both 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 events fall into the second group, which are characterized by the eastward migration of the positive anomaly of the sea surface temperature and the significant increasing of the anomaly in September or October.
文摘Based on the monthly mean OLR, geopotential height and wind data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data sets for 1982-1996, the atmospheric teleconnection associated with the warm pool of the tropical western Pacific and Asian monsoon region during E1 Nino and non-El Nino years are studied diagnostically in this paper. It is found that, the teleconnection pattern caused by the activity of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) emanates from the Asian monsoon region to the tropical eastern Pacific via the Aleutians in summer of the El Nino years. In the non-El Nino years, however, the ASM-related teleconnection pattern stretches northward and westward from the Asian monsoon region, exerting its influences mainly on the circulation over middle and high latitude rather than that over the tropical eastern Pacific. Evidences also show that the anomalous convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool leads to the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the non-El Nino years. It is interesting to note that the teleconnection in the 500 height field associated with the warm pool convection disappears in the El Nino years. The differences of the teleconnection pattern between the El Nino years and the non-El Nino years suggest that the activities of the ASM and the convection over the warm pool of the tropical western Pacific, the most energetic weather events in boreal summer, are intertwined and interactive with other global-scale circulation in different ways under different climate backgrounds.
文摘Monthly mean zonal wind data from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting(ECMWF) t'or December 1982, April 1983, October 1984 and ApriI 1985 are used in numerical integration as thebasic flow in a non-linear critical-layer model. The subtropical high is extensive and limited in number if simulated with the basic now in December 1982 and April 1983. It consists of 2 to 3 cells that move westward at alloscillatory periods of 1~ 2 months. The subtropical high, simulated with the basic flow in October 1984 and April1 985. is weak and small in coverage, or distributed in strips that contain up to 4 cells. The high. merged or spillover a short time. is moving westward. The years 1982 ~ 1983 are a process of EI Nino while the years 1984- 1985one of La Nina. lt is known from the chart of energy flux that it oscillates by a much larger amplitude and longerperiod in the El Nino year than in the La Nina year. All the results above have indicated that the basic now' in theEl Nino year is enhancing the subtropical high lagging by about 4 months and that in the La Nina year is decay'ing it. It is consiStent with the well-known observational fact that the SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacitlc ispositively correlated with the extent and intensity of the subtropical high in west Pacific lagging by 1 ~2 seasons.The result is also important for further study of the formation, maintenance and oscillation of the subtropicalhigh.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41275068)the Special Fund for Meteorology Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201106017)the 973 Program(Grant No.2010CB428504)
文摘The features of large-scale circulation, storm tracks and the dynamical relationship between them were examined by investigating Rossby wave breaking （RWB） processes associated with Eastern Pacific （EP） and Central Pacific （CP） E1-Nifio. During EP E1-Nino, the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa （Z500） exhibits a Pacific-North America （PNA） pattern. During CP EI-Nifio, the Z500 anomaly shows a north positive-south negative pattern over the North Pacific. The anomalous distributions of baroclinicity and storm track are consistent with those of upper-level zonal wind for both EP and CP EI-Nino, suggesting impacts of mean flow on storm track variability. Anticyclonic wave breaking （AWB） oczurs less frequently in EP EI-Nino years, while cyclonic wave breaking （CWB） occurs more frequently in CP EI-Nino years over the North Pacific sector. Outside the North Pacific, more CWB events occur over North America during EP Ei-NiNo. When AWB events occur less frequently over the North Pacific during EP EI-Nino, Z500 decreases locally and the zonal wind is strengthened （weakened） to the south （north）. This is because AWB events reflect a monopoie high anomaly at the centroid of breaking events. When CWB events occur more frequently over the North Pacific under CP EI-Nino conditions, and over North America under EP EI-Nino condition, Z500 increases （decreases） to the northeast （southwest）, since CWB events are related to a northeast-southwest dipole Z500 anomaly. The anomalous RWB events act to invigorate and reinforce the circulation anomalies over the North Pacific-North America region linked with the two types of EI-Nino.
基金the financial support from the UGC,New Delhi,India under the SRF scheme
文摘In this article the authors have studied the stability analysis and chaos control of the fractional order Vallis and El-Nino systems. The chaos control of these systems is studied using nonlinear control method with the help of a new lemma for Caputo derivative and Lyapunov stability theory.The synchronization between the systems for different fractional order cases and numerical simulation through graphical plots for different particular cases clearly exhibit that the method is easy to implement and reliable for synchronization of fractional order chaotic systems. The comparison of time of synchronization when the systems pair approaches from standard order to fractional order is the key feature of the article.
文摘The analyses on the responses of partial pressure difference between sea and air (PCO2), and total dissolved CO2 concentration (TCO2), to abnormal air-sea event in different seasons, were based on observational data measured during cruises from Nov. 1986 to Dec 1997 in area of 22°N - 18°N, 114°E-130°E. The results indicated that in every season, TCO2 was high and PCO2 was positive during onset and mature period of El Nino, but they were low and negative respectively during La Nina. Before and after El Nino, partial pressure of CO2 in the sea and air were in the state of equilibrium. Both PCO2 (air) and PCO2 (air) had same responses to E1 Nino in each season. PCO2 (air) and PCO2 (sw) were high during mature period of El Nino were low before and in onset period of El Nino PCO2 and PCO2 (sw) reached peak value during E1 Nino and variation of PCO2 and PCO2 (sw) were same The mean exchange of CO2 from sea to air (flux) reached peak value during El Nino in autumn, and decreased during La Nina. Before and after El Nino the flux is weak, but in opposite direction from air to sea. According to the 1986-1993 average the characteristics of response of TCO2 anomaly to El Nino and La Nina and the range of outstanding variation in different season were discussed. From above it can be deduced some signals showing ENSO event as follows: in Oct.1995, El Nino of 91/95 was over: In May 1995 it is before a new El Nino: In July 1997 it is in onset of new El Nino; In Dec.1997 it is in the mature stage of E1 Nino event.
文摘An extreme warming hit Europe in summer of the year 2015. The present paper investigates the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and El-Nino 3.4 and heat waves that persist over the western and central Europe in the summer of 2015. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis daily dataset of the mean surface air temperature for the domains of the western and central Europe for summer months (June, July and August) of the year, 2015 has used. In addition, the time cross-section analysis of the daily gridded operational data for the mean surface air temperature over the western and central Europe from 1 June to 31 August 2015 has done. Moreover, daily datasets of the NAO, SOI, and El-Nino 3.4 for that period have used. The time series, time cross section, anomaly and correlation coefficient techniques are used to analyze the data sets. The results revealed that the cases of heat waves that existed over the western and central Europe through the summer season of the year 2015 were controlled distinctly by the negative phase of the NAO and positive phase of ENSO.
文摘-In this paper, the outset, evolution and intensity of El Nino were analyzed. Different features were found in each El Nino process. The El Nino of 1986 was also analyzed and outlined.
