El Niño事件发展期对中国东部夏季极端降水的影响

利用1961−2020年的再分析资料和中国台站观测降水数据集,研究了东部型El Niño事件发展期夏季对中国夏季极端降水的影响.结果表明,东部型El Niño在发展期夏季对中国极端降水的影响主要表现在中国东部地区,造成华北和江南地区极端降水减少,江淮地区极端降水显著增多.进一步分析其中的物理过程发现,当东部型El Niño事件处于发展期夏季时,赤道东太平洋出现显著的海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)暖异常,西太平洋区域表现为冷异常,导致反气旋性环流异常.同时,西北太平洋区域存在SST暖异常,对应气旋性环流异常.异常的SST分布激发了“正-负-正(+−+)”的东亚-太平洋型(East Asia-Pacific,EAP)波列异常,对应着“负-正-负(−+−)”的降水配置.在2个异常环流的交汇处有显著的辐合上升运动,为江淮地区带去了充足的水汽.而华北地区主要受到反气旋性环流和蒙古高压的共同控制,并受到来自高纬度地区的异常西北风影响,存在显著的辐散下沉运动,降水的动力条件不足.并且,在东部型El Niño事件发展期夏季,西太平洋副热带高压位置异常偏东,不利于江南地区降水的发生及水汽的输送,进一步造成江南地区极端降水减少.以上结果显示东部型El Niño事件在其发展期夏季对中国极端降水存在重要的影响,为区域极端气候预测提供了理论依据.

A Comparative Study on the Dominant Factors Responsible for the Weaker-than-expected El Ni?o Event in 2014

Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme E1 Nifio event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted E1 Nifio event. Based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of E1 Nifio events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts （WWBs） with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean-atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific-unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of E1 Nifio was suspended in summer 2014.

El Nino and anti-El Nino events in 1854-1987

-Using the COADS data set of sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, thirty one El Nino events and twenty four anti -El Nino events were identified for the period from 1854 to 1987. The results were compared with those of the other authors. The El Nino events (or anti -El Nino events ) are classified into two groups according to the timing of occrrence of the events: one starts at the first half of a year, another begins at the second half of a year. Both 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 events fall into the second group, which are characterized by the eastward migration of the positive anomaly of the sea surface temperature and the significant increasing of the anomaly in September or October.

Impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Frequency Asymmetry of El Nio and La Nia Events

El Nio-Southern Oscillation（ENSO）is an abnormal sea surface warming or cooling phenomenon over the tropical Pacific,which also has severe global impact.

Variations of the Eco-Hydro-Climatic Environment Response to the 2015/2016 Super El Niño Event in the Mindanao Dome Upwelling System

A super El Niño event occurred in the equatorial Pacific during 2015-2016,accompanied by considerable regional eco-hydro-climatic variations within the Mindanao Dome(MD)upwelling system in the tropical western Pacific.Using timeseries of various oceanic data from 2013 to 2017,the variability of eco-hydro-climatic conditions response to the 2015/2016 super El Niño in the upper 300 m of the MD region are analyzed in this paper.Results showed that during the 2015/2016 super El Niño event,the upwelling in the MD region was greatly enhanced compared to those before and after this El Niño event.Upwelling Rossby waves and the massive loss of surface water in the western Pacific were suggested to be the main reasons for this enhanced upwelling.De-creased precipitation caused by changes in large-scale air-sea interaction led to the increased surface salinities.Changes in the struc-tures of the thermohaline and nutrient distribution in deep waters contributed to the increased surface chlorophyll a,suggesting a po-sitive effect of El Niño on surface carbon storage in the MD region.Based on the above analysis,the synopsis mechanism illustrating the eco-hydro-climatic changing processes over the MD upwelling system responding to the El Niño event was proposed.It high-lights the prospect for the role played by El Niño in local eco-hydro-climatic effects,which has further profound implications for understanding the influence of the global climate changes on the ocean carbon cycle.

TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN RELATION WITH EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS

Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoon activities in relation with the El Nino and La Nifia events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the El Nifio years and active in the La Nina years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time and intensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the El Nifio and La Nina years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature (SST). useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singular values disassemble (SVD) method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST field. The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the El Nino years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop, which take place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Nina years.

PROGNOSTICATION AND INVESTIGATION OF EL NIO EVENT PROBABILITY

Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993, the nature of sequences was de-termined by using statistical normal and independent tests, etc. With the Markov random process and first order auto-regression predictive model, we set up the prognostication mode and give the time limit of the occurrence of next El Nino event, which probably occurs around 2002.The occurring probability for 2001 is 44 %, and it is 61 % for 2002.

Threshold autoregression models for forecasting El Nino events

-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are respectively 0. 84, 0. 88 and 0. 89. It is obvious that all the models work well and the open loop threshold one is the best. So the open loop threshold autoregression model is a useful tool for monitoring the SSTinterannual variation of the cold tongue water area in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and for estimating the El Nino strength.

Analysis of the air-sea heat exchange during the El Nino event in 1983

In this paper,by using the ECMWF objective analysed data as well as CAC and NOAA grid point data of 1981 and 1983,the sensible and latent heat fluxes at the air and sea boundary surface within the range of 45°E-75°W, 35°N-35°S over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean are calculated. The purpose is to analyse the different revealing features during the mature stage and at the end of the 1982 -1983 El Nino event and to compare the difference of the features between thd El Nino and the normal. The result shows that the air and sea heat exchange west of the dateline over the central tropical Pacific during the EJ Nino period is more intense than that of the normal. However,the fluxes of the sensible and latent heat on the sea surface with strong warming of SSTneat by and on the south side of the equator east of 170°W are low and even negative,and the patterns of the sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean during the year of 1983 are similer to that of normal. Spatial patterns of the sensible heat ,the latent heat,SST,OLR and the wind speed exhibit large anomalies during the El Nino event. The corresponding relationships of the spatial distribution of the streng exchange of heat fluxes with regions of high SST and action convection or negative anomalies of OLR are relatively complicated. But the region of maximum air and sea heat exchange is in good coincidence with that of high value of the Vs. The strong heat exchange is weakened with the declining and the finishing of the El Nino event in the central tropical Pacific.

Late onsets of tropical cyclones in the decaying years of super El Niño events

The 2015/2016 El Nino event reached the threshold of super El Nino event,and was comparable to the super events in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998.Interestingly,the tropical cyclones(TCs)were found to have very late onsets in the decaying years of the super El Nino events.This study discusses the causes of late TC onsets related with atmospheric circulation,disturbance sources and trigger mechanisms.The analysis shows that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)from January–June during the decaying years of the super El Nino events were stronger than the climatic mean,which resulted in a relatively stable atmospheric state by inhibiting deep convection.As a disturbance source,the April–June intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ)during the decaying years of the super El Nino events were significantly weaker than its climatic mean.The cross-equatorial flow and monsoon trough,as important TC generation triggers,were weaker from April–June during the decaying years of the super El Nino events,which further reduced the probability of TC generation.As for the late TC onsets,the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies(i.e.,subtropical-high,the ITCZ,cross-equatorial flow,and monsoon trough)were more important.The cross-equatorial flow may take as predictor of TC onsets in the decaying years of the super El Nino events.

The Influence of Two Kinds of El Ni?o Events on the Strong Tropical Cyclone Generation and Strength in the Pacific Ocean

This paper focuses on the effects of two types of El Nino events on tropical cyclone activity. We classified El Nino events from 1961 to 2015 according to their sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies into an eastern type and a central type. Then we selected strong tropical cyclones to statistically analyze the tropical cyclone characteristics during different events and their effects, as well as to study the possible mechanisms related to thermodynamic and dynamic factors. The tropical cyclone generation areas were found to be very similar during the two kinds of events. The average number of tropical cyclone in the eastern event is more than that in central event, and the hurricane in northeastern Pacific （HNP） has more energy than the typhoon in northwestern Pacific （TNP） in all cases. The seasonal distribution of the TNP high-incidence centers during central El Nifio events is opposite to that of the HNP. The TNP accumulated cyclone energy （ACE） intensity is similar in the fall and summer, and the HNP ACE intensity in the summer is greater than that in the fall. The SSTs are consistent with the TNP and HNP movement trends. The Walker circulation intensity was strongly affected by the eastern events, but it quickly returned to its normal state, while the intensity was slightly reduced in the central events, and it slowly returned to its normal state. The vertical velocity distributions in the Pacific are different at different stages of both events, and the distributions of vertical velocity anomalies for typhoons and hurricanes are consistent.

The heat balance on the sea surface in the mature phase of 1982/83 El Nino event

Using the air-sea data set of January, 1983 (the mature phase of the 1982/83 El Nino event), the net radiation on the sea surface, the fluxes of the latent and the sensible heat from ocean to the atmosphere and the net heat gain of the sea surface are calculated over the Indian and the Pacific Oceans for the domain of 35°N-35°S and 45°E-75°W. The results indicate that the upward transfer of the latent and the sensible heat fluxes over the winter hemisphere is larger than that over the summer hemisphere. The sensible heat over the tropical mid Pacific in the Southern Hemisphere is transported from the atmosphere to the ocean, though its magnitude is rather small. The latent heat flux gained by the air over the eastern Pacific is less than the mean value of the normal year. The net radiation, on which the cloud amount has considerable impact, is essentially zonally distributed. Moreover, the sea surface temperature (SST) has a very good correlation with the net radiation, the region of warm SST coinciding with that of the low net radiation. The net radiation obtained by the mid Pacific Ocean is reduced by the SST anomaly during the El Nino event, whereas the atmosphere over there get more latent heat flux, and this results in the diminution of the net heat gain of the ocean. The overview of the heat budget is that the ocean over the winter hemisphere is the energy source of the atmosphere, and that over the summer hemisphere its energy sink.

The inversion of the Equatorial Undercurrent in the western tropical Pacific during 1986/1987 El Nino event

On the basis of time series measurements of winds, currents, temperature and salinity from equatorial current meter mooring and acoustic Doppler current profiler during the PRC/USA joint air-sea interaction studies in the western tropical Pacifc Ocean and sea level data provided by Prof. Wyrtki, analyses are made of the physical process and mechanism for the exceptionally inverse phenomenon (westward) of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in the western tropical Pacific after entering the mature stage of 1986/1987 ENSO event, and the numerical simulation is also conducted by 'cross section' model. The results indicate that the inversion of the EUC is related to that of pressure gradient force near the equator under the influence of non-local permanent westerlies.

El Nino事件的概率预测研究

根据1854～1993年期间的El Nino事件资料序列,通过正态性、独立性等统计检验,确定序列的性质。利用Markov随机过程和一阶自回归建立预测模式,给出了下次发生El Nino事件的时间可能在2002年前后。2001年发生的概率为44 %;2002年发生的概率为61 %。

2015/2016年超强El Nio事件背景下我国月预测技巧差异分析

利用中国站点观测降水资料、国家气候中心第2代月动力延伸预报模式(BCC_DERF2.0)的回报和预报数据、NCEP/NACR再分析资料和国家气候中心实时发布的月尺度降水预测评分数据,通过评估和诊断分析发现,在2015/2016年超强El Nio事件背景下,这两年内业务发布的月降水预报能力有明显不同,BCC_DERF2.0对月环流的预测技巧也存在差异:在2015年(El Nio发展位相),降水预报和环流预测技巧较高且稳定,而在2016年(El Nio衰减位相)的预报技巧总体偏低。进一步的研究显示,亚洲—太平洋涛动(Asia-Pacific Oscillation,APO)可能是导致2015年和2016年夏季预测技巧高低的重要影响因素。2015(2016)年夏季为APO低(高)指数年,且2016年具有高指数年的典型环流特征。而APO高指数对应的环流特征与El Nio衰减位相对西北太平洋环流的影响不同,在El Nio和APO的物理影响途径不一致时,将直接影响东亚环流可预报性的高低及动力气候模式的预报技巧,即El Nio在发展和衰减位相与APO型不同组合的影响是2015和2016年月预测技巧有差异的重要原因。

El Nio事件对其衰减阶段夏季中国降水季节内演变的影响及其机理

利用1979—2007年NOAA重建海温逐月资料和中国160站夏季降水资料,使用扩展奇异值分解(extended singular value decomposition,ESVD)方法,研究了冬季热带太平洋海温异常与次年夏季中国降水异常季节内演变型之间的关系,指出前冬El Nio事件是与次年夏季中国降水季节内变化相联系的最重要的热带太平洋海温异常模态。相应的降水异常季节内变化情况为:6月在长江以南为正异常,江淮流域有负异常;7月在华南沿海有负降水异常,而正异常北进到长江流域,华北地区也出现正降水异常;8月在长江南北分别为少雨和多雨。进一步研究前冬El Nio事件与次年春夏印度洋、太平洋海温异常、对流层低层风场异常以及副热带高压等的联系,结果表明:El Nio事件发生的次年春夏,热带西太平洋周边存在东负西正的海温异常分布;西太平洋反气旋异常较强;副高在6月、7月偏西偏北,但在8月迅速南退。虽然与El Nio事件相联系的6月与7月、8月的降水型不同,但是西太平洋反气旋异常带来的充沛水汽造成7月长江流域雨季多雨,8月副高迅速南退带来的又一次长江流域降水,造成了El Nio事件发生次年夏季长江流域涝而华南沿海旱的夏季平均降水异常型。

厄尔尼诺事件的类型、强度对海南岛秋汛期降水的影响

利用1961—2018年逐月Ni?o关键区海温指数资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及国家气象观测站降水量资料,在定义了厄尔尼诺事件的类型和强度的基础上,利用相关分析和合成分析方法,分析了近58年厄尔尼诺事件的不同类型和强度对海南岛秋汛期降水的影响及其相应的大气环流和水汽输送场的差异。结果表明,厄尔尼诺事件总体有利于海南岛秋汛期降水偏少,但存在类型和强度上的差别。其中轻度中部型厄尔尼诺事件年全岛平均降水量偏少32.5%,偏少概率较气候概率上升了25.0%,降水异常的空间分布表现为西南局部地区的偏多、其余地区的偏少;中等及以上强度东部型厄尔尼诺事件年降水量平均偏少21.7%,偏少概率上升了11.7%,轻度东部型厄尔尼诺事件年降水量平均偏少15.8%,偏少概率上升了7.5%,两者的降水异常空间分布为一致性偏少。海南岛秋汛期降水异常与大气环流和水汽输送密切相关。不同类型和强度的厄尔尼诺事件年可能主要通过影响沃克环流的位置、强度的不同程度变化,造成风场、位势高度场、海平面气压场、垂直速度场、水汽通量及其散度场响应程度上的差异,最终使海南岛秋汛期降水发生不同程度的减少。

春季/夏季型El Ni?o对中国夏季降水变化的影响

利用中国气象局160站的逐月降水资料,NCAR/NCEP再分析资料以及美国CPC提供的Ni?o3. 4区指数,对比分析了SP、SU两类El Ni?o事件发展年、衰减年中国夏季降水和东亚环流特征的差异。结果表明:1) SP型El Ni?o事件发展年全国以少雨为主要特征,衰减年降水呈"北多南少"分布; SU型发展年,降水异常呈"三明治"型分布特征,衰减年降水偏多区域增大。2) 850 h Pa风场上,SP型El Ni?o事件发展年夏季风偏强,但反气旋性风场异常位置偏东偏北,衰减年夏季风还保持强劲,且反气旋性风场异常偏西偏南;而SU型发展年东亚夏季风偏弱,衰减年夏季风偏强。3) 500 hPa高度场上,SP型事件发展年夏季,我国受东亚夏季风影响总体偏弱,来自低纬地区的暖湿水汽向我国大陆输送不足;衰减年,受偏强东亚夏季风影响,来自低纬地区的暖湿水汽向我国腹地输送。SU型发展年,受相对活跃的冷空气影响,内蒙到华北地区多雨;衰减年,受偏强夏季风影响,冷暖气流在我国黄河及以北地区交汇。4)比较两类El Ni?o事件发生时对流层低层和高层特征表明:在SP型事件发展年,我国大陆上空,除内蒙和东北外,基本为下沉异常,衰减年基本为上升异常;在SU型发展年,我国大陆上空皆为显著的下沉异常,衰减年为弱下沉异常,但在偏强夏季风的作用下,降水偏多区域增大了。

洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害演变趋势及其与El Nio事件关系

为分析洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害在千年尺度序列上的演变趋势,采用统计历史洪涝记录的方法,分析了气候变化背景下洪涝灾害的响应过程,探讨了洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害同El Nio事件的关系。结果表明：近1000 a来洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害的频度总体是趋于上升的,这种变化趋势同气候变化的趋势是一致的。研究结果显示：公元1000-1400年洪涝记录偏少,同我国东部地区尤其是中世纪暖期出现的一次200 a以上的干旱化过程有较好的对应性。1400-1800年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发期,这一事实同我国东部1550-1850年小冰期期间总体偏湿的环境特征相一致。分析洪涝灾害变化同El Nio事件对应性关系表明：在El Nio事件年及其次年是洪泽湖流域洪涝的多发年份。这可能是由于El Nio事件通过改变西太平洋副高的强度与位置,以及大气环流形势而引起的降水异常所致。了解洪泽湖流域洪涝的演变趋势及其同El Nio的关系对于长期防灾减灾策略具有重要的参考意义。

1997/1998年ElNio事件发生、发展可能机制的进一步研究

基于美国哥伦比亚大学Lamont-Doherty地球观象台LDEO(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)海表温度资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料,分析了1997/1998年ElNio期间西太平洋暖池海表温度和西风距平的时间演变特征,同时也分析了东太平洋暖池海表温度和北风距平的时间演变特征。结果表明,1997/1998年ElNio事件期间,西太平洋暖池海表温度变化及异常西风和东太平洋暖池海表温度变化及异常北风都与Ni o3指数变化密切相关。将东、西太平洋暖池及异常北风、西风一并结合起来考虑,进一步研究了1997/1998年ElNio事件发生、发展的可能机制:异常西风驱动西太平洋暖池东端暖水向东伸展直接有利于赤道东太平洋海表温度增加;异常西风激发东传的暖Kelvin波对东太平洋的冷上升流有抑制作用,从而有利于赤道东太平洋海表温度增加;东传的异常西风可以通过埃克曼漂流效应将赤道两侧的海表暖水向赤道辐合从而加强了赤道附近的下沉流,也有利于赤道东太平洋赤道附近海表温度增加。几乎与此同时,北风距平通过产生北风吹流将东太平洋暖池暖水由北向南输送至赤道附近直接导致Nio3区海表温度增加。上述增温因素的叠加作用共同导致了1997/1998年ElNio事件迅速发生、异常强大。