El Nino and anti-El Nino events in 1854-1987

-Using the COADS data set of sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, thirty one El Nino events and twenty four anti -El Nino events were identified for the period from 1854 to 1987. The results were compared with those of the other authors. The El Nino events (or anti -El Nino events ) are classified into two groups according to the timing of occrrence of the events: one starts at the first half of a year, another begins at the second half of a year. Both 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 events fall into the second group, which are characterized by the eastward migration of the positive anomaly of the sea surface temperature and the significant increasing of the anomaly in September or October.

Threshold autoregression models for forecasting El Nino events

-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are respectively 0. 84, 0. 88 and 0. 89. It is obvious that all the models work well and the open loop threshold one is the best. So the open loop threshold autoregression model is a useful tool for monitoring the SSTinterannual variation of the cold tongue water area in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and for estimating the El Nino strength.

The Influence of Two Kinds of El Ni?o Events on the Strong Tropical Cyclone Generation and Strength in the Pacific Ocean

This paper focuses on the effects of two types of El Nino events on tropical cyclone activity. We classified El Nino events from 1961 to 2015 according to their sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies into an eastern type and a central type. Then we selected strong tropical cyclones to statistically analyze the tropical cyclone characteristics during different events and their effects, as well as to study the possible mechanisms related to thermodynamic and dynamic factors. The tropical cyclone generation areas were found to be very similar during the two kinds of events. The average number of tropical cyclone in the eastern event is more than that in central event, and the hurricane in northeastern Pacific （HNP） has more energy than the typhoon in northwestern Pacific （TNP） in all cases. The seasonal distribution of the TNP high-incidence centers during central El Nifio events is opposite to that of the HNP. The TNP accumulated cyclone energy （ACE） intensity is similar in the fall and summer, and the HNP ACE intensity in the summer is greater than that in the fall. The SSTs are consistent with the TNP and HNP movement trends. The Walker circulation intensity was strongly affected by the eastern events, but it quickly returned to its normal state, while the intensity was slightly reduced in the central events, and it slowly returned to its normal state. The vertical velocity distributions in the Pacific are different at different stages of both events, and the distributions of vertical velocity anomalies for typhoons and hurricanes are consistent.

Contribution of El Nino amplitude change to tropical Pacific precipitation decline in the late 1990s

Equatorial central Pacific precipitation experienced a prominent decline in the late 1990 s.This change was previously attributed to a La Nina-like mean sea surface temperature(SST)change in the Pacific Ocean associated with a phase switch of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.Here,using a series of model experiments,the authors reveal that the El Nino-related interannual SST anomalies contributed largely to the precipitation decrease over the equatorial central Pacific.This El Nino SST effect was due to the change in the amplitude of El Nino events in the late 1990 s.The 1980-98 decade had more large-amplitude El Nino events than the 1999-2014 decade.The nonlinear precipitation response to SST anomalies resulted in a larger decadal mean precipitation in the 1980-98 decade than in the 1999-2014 decade.The results highlight the importance of El Nino amplitude change in future climate change related to global warming.

Impacts of El Nino on the somatic condition of Humboldt squid based on the beak morphology

The Humboldt squid Dosidicus gigas has a short life span, and environmental variability plays a significant role in regulating its population dynamics and distribution. An analysis of 1 096 samples of D. gigas collected by the Chinese commercial fishing vessels during 2013, 2014, and 2016 off the Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zone, was conducted to evaluate the impacts of El Nino events on the somatic condition of D. gigas. This study indicates that the slopes of all beak variables in relation to mantle length (ML) for females were greater than those of males during 2013, 2014, and 2016, and slopes of the upper crest length and the lower rostrum length significantly differed between females and males in 2013 (P<0.05). Variation in the slopes for beak variables among years was studied;no significant difference was observed (ANCOVA, P>0.05). The Fulton's condition coefficients (K) of females and males in 2013 and 2014 were significantly greater than those in 2016 (P<0.01). The K values of females were greater than those of males in 2013, 2014, and 2016, and K values significantly differed between females and males in 2013. In normal years, the chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration showed an N-shaped variability from January to December. However, in the El Nino period, it tended to weaken the upwelling coupled with warm and low Chl a concentration waters. We suggest that the poor somatic condition of D. gigas during the El Nino year was resulted from the low Chl a concentration in the waters, and the abundance of D. gigas would decrease due to the unfavourable environment and the lack of prey items in the El Nino year.

Analysis of the air-sea heat exchange during the El Nino event in 1983

In this paper,by using the ECMWF objective analysed data as well as CAC and NOAA grid point data of 1981 and 1983,the sensible and latent heat fluxes at the air and sea boundary surface within the range of 45°E-75°W, 35°N-35°S over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean are calculated. The purpose is to analyse the different revealing features during the mature stage and at the end of the 1982 -1983 El Nino event and to compare the difference of the features between thd El Nino and the normal. The result shows that the air and sea heat exchange west of the dateline over the central tropical Pacific during the EJ Nino period is more intense than that of the normal. However,the fluxes of the sensible and latent heat on the sea surface with strong warming of SSTneat by and on the south side of the equator east of 170°W are low and even negative,and the patterns of the sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean during the year of 1983 are similer to that of normal. Spatial patterns of the sensible heat ,the latent heat,SST,OLR and the wind speed exhibit large anomalies during the El Nino event. The corresponding relationships of the spatial distribution of the streng exchange of heat fluxes with regions of high SST and action convection or negative anomalies of OLR are relatively complicated. But the region of maximum air and sea heat exchange is in good coincidence with that of high value of the Vs. The strong heat exchange is weakened with the declining and the finishing of the El Nino event in the central tropical Pacific.

The heat balance on the sea surface in the mature phase of 1982/83 El Nino event

Using the air-sea data set of January, 1983 (the mature phase of the 1982/83 El Nino event), the net radiation on the sea surface, the fluxes of the latent and the sensible heat from ocean to the atmosphere and the net heat gain of the sea surface are calculated over the Indian and the Pacific Oceans for the domain of 35°N-35°S and 45°E-75°W. The results indicate that the upward transfer of the latent and the sensible heat fluxes over the winter hemisphere is larger than that over the summer hemisphere. The sensible heat over the tropical mid Pacific in the Southern Hemisphere is transported from the atmosphere to the ocean, though its magnitude is rather small. The latent heat flux gained by the air over the eastern Pacific is less than the mean value of the normal year. The net radiation, on which the cloud amount has considerable impact, is essentially zonally distributed. Moreover, the sea surface temperature (SST) has a very good correlation with the net radiation, the region of warm SST coinciding with that of the low net radiation. The net radiation obtained by the mid Pacific Ocean is reduced by the SST anomaly during the El Nino event, whereas the atmosphere over there get more latent heat flux, and this results in the diminution of the net heat gain of the ocean. The overview of the heat budget is that the ocean over the winter hemisphere is the energy source of the atmosphere, and that over the summer hemisphere its energy sink.

The inversion of the Equatorial Undercurrent in the western tropical Pacific during 1986/1987 El Nino event

On the basis of time series measurements of winds, currents, temperature and salinity from equatorial current meter mooring and acoustic Doppler current profiler during the PRC/USA joint air-sea interaction studies in the western tropical Pacifc Ocean and sea level data provided by Prof. Wyrtki, analyses are made of the physical process and mechanism for the exceptionally inverse phenomenon (westward) of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in the western tropical Pacific after entering the mature stage of 1986/1987 ENSO event, and the numerical simulation is also conducted by 'cross section' model. The results indicate that the inversion of the EUC is related to that of pressure gradient force near the equator under the influence of non-local permanent westerlies.

The relationship between ENSO cycle and temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area

El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of El Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When El Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature, precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.

The relationship between ENSO cycle and high and low-flow in the upper Yellow River

Firstly, the hydrological and meteorological features of the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag are analyzed based on observation data, and effects of EI Nino and La Ni na events on the high and low flow in the upper Yellow River are discussed. The results show El Nino and La Nina events possess consanguineous relationship wi th runoff in the upper Yellow River. As a whole, the probability of low fl ow occurrence in the upper Yellow River is relatively great along wit h the occurrence of El Nino event. Moreover, the flood in the upper Yellow River occurs frequently with the occurrence of La Nina event. Besides, the results also show dissimilarity of El Nino event occurri ng time exerts greater impact on high flow and low flow in the uppe r Yellow River, that is, the probability of drought will be greater in the sam e year if El Nino event occurs in spring, the high-flow may happen in this y ear if El Nino occurs in summer or autumn; the longer the continuous period of El Nino is, the lower the runoff in the upper Yellow River is.

A Comparative Study on the Dominant Factors Responsible for the Weaker-than-expected El Ni?o Event in 2014

Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme E1 Nifio event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted E1 Nifio event. Based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of E1 Nifio events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts （WWBs） with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean-atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific-unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of E1 Nifio was suspended in summer 2014.

A Data Analysis Study on the Evolution of the EI Nino/ La Nina Cycle

The curved surface of the maximum sea temperature anomaly (MSTA) was created from the JEDAC subsurface sea temperature anomaly data at the tropical Pacific between 1955 and 2000. It is quite similar to the depth distribution of the 20℃ isotherm, which is usually the replacement of thermocline. From the distribution and moving trajectory of positive or negative sea temperature anomalies (STA) on the curved surface we analyzed all the El Nino and La Nina events since the later 1960s. Based on the analyses we found that, using the subsurface warm pool as the beginning point, the warm or cold signal propagates initially eastward and upward along the equatorial curved surface of MSTA to the eastern Pacific and stays there several months and then to (urn north, usually moving westward near 10°N to western Pacific and finally propagates southward to return to warm pool to form an off-equator closed circuit. It takes about 2 to 4 years for the temperature anomaly to move around the cycle. If the STA of warm (cold) water is strong enough, there will be two successive El Nino (La Nina) events during the period of 2 to 4 years. Sometime, it becomes weak in motion due to the unsuitable oceanic or atmospheric condition. This kind process may not be considered as an El Nino ( La Nina) event, but the moving trajectory of warm (cold) water can still be recognized. Because of the alternate between warm and cold water around the circuits, the positive (negative) anomaly signal in equatorial western Pacific coexists with negative (positive) anomaly signal near 10°N in eastern Pacific before the outbreak of El Nino (La Nina) event. The signals move in the opposite directions. So it appears as El Nino (La Nina) in equator at 2-4 years intervals. The paper also analyzed several exceptional cases and discussed the effect and importance of oceanic circulation in the evolution of El Nino/ La Nina event.

Anomalous change of the Antarctic sea ice and global sea level change

In this paper, the long-term variation trend of the Antarctic sea ice in 1973～1994 and the inter-decade variation rule of the global sea level are analyzed. It is found that the sea ice area in the Antarctic in the 1980s was significantly less than in the 1970s and the average global sea level height value in the 1980s was also significantly higher than in the 1970s. Connecting variation of both and analyzing their physical mechanism, it indicates that the accumulated sea ice anomaly value in the 1980s less than in the 1970s means a global climate warming, the sea water temperature and air temperature were obviously higher in the 1980s it introduced the long-term accumulated sea ice decreased greatly; a higher sea water temperature introduced sea water volume expanding, and more icebergs transporting from the ice cover in the Antarctic continent to ocean in the warmer year. As a result induced by these multi-causes, the global sea level raised significantly in the 1980s. The global average sea level value in the 1980s, was 22 mm higher than in the 1970s. The sea level raising(SLR) was distributed unevenly. It is especially true in the Pacific Ocean with two expensive we level raising regions in the Northeast Pacific and Southeast Pacific as well as a raising region near the Bering Sea; and with two descent regions in the Northwest and Southwest Pacific. It is considered that this kind of uneven SLR distribution closely relates to the sustained decreasing of the Antarctic sea ice. The higher sea water tem This study was supported both by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contrast Nod 49376252 and by the National '85' Plan 'Key Project 903': 7th Popect.perature in the south ocean introduces a rather warmer water temperature of the Peru Cold Current which is a northward branch of the South Oceanic Current along the South American continent, then it is easier to the occurrence of El Nino event. When El Nino event occurs, the prevailed tropical easterlies over the Pacific weaken and the westerlies intensify. Normally, the sea level is higher in the west and low in the east. A lot of sea water is transported from west to east caused by gravity and wind dynamics in this situation. The uneven distribution of raising in the eastern Pacific and descending in the western Pacific was introduced.

Land-Sea Interactions in Punta China(Baja California,Mexico):Addressing Anthropic and Natural Disturbances in a Retrospective Context

In extensive SCUBA-diving surveys of kelp forests along 350 km of the Baja California peninsula coastline from the US-México borderline to Sacramento Reef, benthic species richness has been satisfactorily explained by environmental structural features such as bottom rugosity. However, values at Punta China embayment (PCE) departed significantly from the model whereas the adjacent Santo Tomás cove (STC) did not. In addition, in August 20, 2011, visibility was under 1 m at PCE and over 10 m at STC;these conditions presumably reflect the influence of the limestone extraction industry located on land. In order to investigate the case allowing for temporal comparisons, we set a regional research scenario similar to a 1993 pioneer study, comprising PCE and two contrasting sites (STC to the North, and San José embayment, SJE, to the South). Land and sea side were addressed separately, and a 1950-2012 time-span period was set in order to perform the analysis of retrospective data. Our results suggest that the current scenario results from the combined influence of a local, anthropic and chronic land-based disturbance represented by the progressive expansion of limestone extraction industry, and the episodic influence of a natural, large scale and acute disturbance represented by the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Nino events. The influence of both driving forces, however, is not necessarily equally distributed in space, yielding a regional mosaic of natural and social conditions. Our results confirm and expand previous knowledge in the area, and may contribute to?future basic and applied research.

The role of nonlinearities associated with air-sea coupling processes in El Nino's peak-phase locking

We use conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） to investigate the optimal precursory disturbances in the Zebiak- Cane El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） model. The conditions of the CNOP-type precursors are highly likely to evolve into El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model. By exploring the dynamic behaviors of these nonlinear El Nino events caused by the CNOP-type precursors, we find that they, as expected, tend to phase-lock to the annual cycles in the Zebiak-Cane model with the SSTA peak at the end of a calendar year. However, E1 Nino events with CNOPs as initial anomalies in the linearized Zebiak-Cane model are inclined to phase-lock earlier than nonlinear E1 Nino events despite the existence of annual cycles in the model. It is clear that nonlinearities play an important role in El Nino＇s phase-locking. In particular, nonlinear temperature advection increases anomalous zonal SST differences and anomalous westerlies, which weakens anomalous upwelling and acts on the increasing anomalous vertical temperature difference and, as a result, enhances E1 Nino and then delays the peak SSTA. Finally, we demonstrate that nonlinear temperature advection, together with the effect of the annual cycle, causes El Nino events to peak at the end of the calendar year.

Numerical Simulations of Anomalies of Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in China in the Summer of 1997

The anomalies of precipitation and surface air temperature in the summer (June to August) of 1997 are simulated by use of a global spectral numerical climate model (L9R15) developed in Australia originally and modified in LASG. The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the El Nino event that happened in that year on the anomalies. The results show that the 1997 El Nino event does have a lot of influences on the climatic anomaly in that summer, however, the effect is not the same as pointed out by statistical studies. Therefore, the effects of the El Nino events are of uncertainties. The effects of the El Nino events on the regional climate in China might be different due to the different SSTA distributions over the western and northwestern Pacific in the El Nino years. It is likely more important to pay attention to the SSTA distributive patterns and values in the Chinese adjacent oceans. Besides the El Nino event there might be other factors such as the South Asia high at the 100 hPa level which has more direct impact on the climatic anomaly in China and can be taken as another strong signal of the climatic change in the atmosphere. Key words Climatic anomalies - Numerical modelling - Effect of El Nino event Sponsored by the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China: “ Analyses and Mechanism Study of the Regional Climatic Change in China” under Grant No. 49735170.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LONG-TERM VARIATIONS IN EL NINO AND THE NOR-THERN OSCILLATION DURING THE LAST 100 YEARS

The Northern Oscillation (NO) is the east-west out-of-phase fluctuation in the sea level pressure (SLP)anomalies between the eastern and the western North Pacific. When the pressure is higher thantheaverage in the northeast Pacific, it is lower than the average in the southwest Pacific, and vice versa. The NO is symmetrical about the equator to the Southern Oscillation (SO) and located to the north of the equator; hence the name. Previous

STUDY ON MECHANISM OF EL NINO EVENT OCCURRENCE

A possible mechanism is put forward in this paper for El Nino events from the viewpoint of plate tec- tonics and oceanic geology.A number of the data are cited to illustrate the views that sea-bottom volcanic ac- tivities and hot springs may cause El Nino events.

ANOMALIES OF THE BACKGROUND CIRCULATION OF THE IAP GCM MODEL ATMOSPHERE IN AN EL NINO YEAR

Analysis is performed of the May-September mean circulation,referred to as the background circulation hereinafter,in the IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Academia Sinica)GCM model atmosphere,It is found that in an El Nino year there occur anomalies in a set of major systems,e.g.,Southetm Oscillation,Walker and Hadley circulations,the western Pacific subtropical high and ITCZ,2nd in large-scale precipitation,with their happening dominantly in the Northern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical latitudes in the western Pacific. These results that are in rough agreement with the analyzd actual observations demonstrate the applicabilities of the model to the study of low-latitude circulations.