Age-specific reference ranges of prostatespecific antigen in the elderly of Amirkola: A population-based study

Objective:To determine the age-specific reference ranges of prostate-specific antigen(PSA)in the older men in the city of Amirkola.Methods:This cross-sectional study is a part of Amirkola Health and Ageing Project(AHAP)which has been conducted as a cohort study since 2011 in Amirkola,a city in northern Iran.The demographic information of all men aged 60 and older were collected through questionnaires and interviews and the PSA measurements were performed using ELISA and Diametra kit.The acquired data were analyzed afterwards.Results:A number of 837 elderly men with a mean age of 69.99±7.72 years participated in this study.The serum PSA level(95th percentile)was determined to be 0.9(0-4.89)ng/mL in the age group of 60-64 years,1.1(0-4.88)ng/mL in the age group of 65-69 years,0.93(0-9.01)ng/mL in the age group of 70-74 years,1.3(0-7.95)ng/mL in the age group of 75-79 years,1.9(0-11.98 ng/mL)in the age group of 80-84 years,and 1.45(0-33.17)ng/mL in the 85 and older group.The serum PSA level was significantly correlated with age(p=0.000).Conclusion:This study indicated that there is a direct correlation between the age and serum PSA levels.The use of age-specific reference range could guide clinicians on the incidence of prostate cancer in this population and perhaps reduce the number of unnecessary tests in this population group.

Correlation of Depression with the Functional Profile of Elderly People Living in Homes for the Aged

Introduction: Due to the growth of the elderly population, there is a notable lack of preparation among family members and society to face the challenges of this new reality, resulting in an increasing demand for homes for the aged (HA). It is necessary to understand how the impairment of physical health, mental health and the level of depression can affect the functional capacity of the institutionalized elderly who live in homes for the aged. Objective: To describe the correlation between depression and functionality of elderly people who live in homes for the aged. Method: A cross-sectional, descriptive study with 70 elderly people of both sexes, aged 60 years or older, who live in HA in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Result: It was verified that the female gender was predominant in the HA consulted. The majority of elderly live in HA voluntarily 48.6% and that 41.43% did not complete elementary school. The majority of the elderly 81.43% had the ability to perform basic activities of daily living and the elderly 52.86% had normal psychological pictures. The worsening of the depressive picture is associated with the worse functioning of elderly who live in HA (p < 0.02). Conclusion: Depression is a factor that is associated with the functional capacity of the institutionalized elderly. The worse the functional level of the institutionalized elderly, the greater the chances of presenting a depressive state.

Short-and long-term health implications of surgical intensive care in the elderly

Background: Treatment of elderly patients on intensive care units is an increasing challenge all over the world. Objectives: To evaluate short- term survival and long-term quality of life im-plications of intensive care for the elderly. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 314 patients 75 years of age or more requiring over 48 hours of intensive care. Results: In multivariate analy-sis, significant risk factors for mortality were chronic renal impairment (OR for survival .30, p 24 h (OR 4.5), hemodialysis (OR 6.8), and vasopressor therapy (OR 2.5, p < 0.001 for each). A health survey questionnaire in an up to 60-month follow-up of 28 patients revealed considerably lower physi-cal subscores of our patients compared to the general elderly population. Conclusions: Elderly patients benefit from intensive care in terms of survival. Complications are frequent, as are severe consequences for long-term quality of life. Short-term mortality in elderly intensive care patients correlates most closely to pre- existing disease, not age.

The Experiences of the Elderly and Caregivers in Respect of Caring for the Elderly in Windhoek and Rehoboth Namibia: An Exploratory and Descriptive Study

In many instances, care for the elderly, especially in long-term care institutions, is provided under minimal supervision by caregivers who are lay people. This can lead to poor quality care or neglect of the elderly. The research question was: “How competent are lay caregivers for the elderly in old age homes, who often lack the opportunity for training to improve their knowledge and skills, in delivering care to the elderly? The aims of the study were to explore and describe the experiences of both the caregivers and the elderly in respect of caring for the elderly in old age homes. The objectives of the study were to explore and describe the experiences of the caregivers and the elderly with respect to caring for the elderly and in respect of nursing care they received. A qualitative, explorative, descriptive, contextual and phenomenology design was used to perform this study. In the situational analysis, the experiences and needs of the caregivers were described. Themes in terms of interpersonal relationships that could be positive or negative regarding the elderly were identified. These included lack of regular in-service training sessions for caregivers. Likewise, sub-themes like communication, support and caring for elderly people were revealed. Inadequate knowledge of caregivers in caring procedures, a shortage of staff, equipment and absence of policies which should support and guide the work of caregivers impacts negatively on the care of the elderly. From the experiences of the elderly and caregivers, the competencies under scrutiny emerged and were measured qualitatively by the perceptions of the elderly, in respect of the caring they were exposed to.

Treatment for 63 cases of the elderly with choledocholith by duodenoscope

Objective To explore the effect of duodenoscope in the treatment for the elderly cases.Method Retrospective analysis of the treatment by duodenoscope for 63 elderly patients (all aged over 80 years old) with high risk choledocholith from Jan 2006 to Dec 2010.Results All of the 63 cases obtained a success in the endoscopic operation.The operative time was within 15~60 min.Endoscopic stone extraction was performed on 21 cases,bile duct plastic stent in 35,of them 2 cases had the second operation because their stones were too big.In 2 cases of 9 who suffered from acute obstructive suppurative cholangitis (AOSC),plastic stents were placed.In the rest 7 cases,nasobiliary drainages (NBD) were inserted,on 4 of the 7 cases,stone extraction were performed 5-7 days later,in 3 of the 7 cases,stents were inserted for the second time,of the 3 cases,2 were found blood oozing on the surface of wound after EST (endoscopic sphicterectomy),the bleeding was stopped by local spray of noradrenaline,no hematorrhea or perforation occurred.Postoperative choledochitis was found in 1 case,to whom antiinflammatory therapy was applied.Pancreatitis was found in 3 cases,blood amylase increasing in 12,who were cured with fast,pancreatic secretion inhibition and antiinflammatory drugs.One patient died of acute left heart failure (ALHF),no death from the bile duct diseases or concerned were found.Conclusion Although many basal diseases of the elderly increase the risks in the endoscopic treatment,it proves to be practical for it has less complications,high security and definite curative results.

Legal Guarantee for the Elderly’s Right to Work——A Comparative Analysis Based on Age Discrimination in the Employment Act

In the context of the deepening of the population aging,many countries have begun to rectify age discrimination in labor and employment to ensure that the elderly enjoy equal and adequate right to work.In accordance with relevant laws and regulations,the legal norms of age discrimination in employment are highly similar in different countries.Yet,there are differences in exemption clauses and legal relief.So far,three major regulatory modes have taken shape respectively in the United States,europe and Japan.China still lags behind in legislation against age discrimination in employment,so extraterritorial governance experiences should be taken for reference to promote relevant legislation based on intergenerational solidarity and cooperation in a timely manner,so as to provide a legal guarantee for the elderly on the right to work and the handling of population aging.China should also use human rights discourse to summarize and express its own solutions and take an active part in the process of signing the international instruments on human rights specialized for the elderly.

Demographic ageing,health status and life quality of the elderly in Russia

Within the context of the national policy on the elderly,the paper presents trends in demographic ageing,health and life quality of the elderly in Russia.Social and political consequences of the XX century have resulted in significant fluctuations in the number of individual generations,forming a long-term fluctuating trend in demographic ageing in Russia.These historical disproportions have overlapped with regional variations in ageing rates due to significant inter-regional population movements,rural-urban migration,substantial gender differences in trends and scales of mortality and fertility dynamics.As a result,levels of demographic ageing in Russia vary more than three-fold,worsening in females and rural population.Ageingrelated problems are aggravated by unsatisfactory health status of the elderly,manifested in high burden of chronic diseases(especially cardiovascular diseases),leading to life restrictions up to loss of the ability to self-care.High-tech cardiac surgery contributes to life prolongation and improved physical and psychological functioning.However,during rehabilitation,most patients are reluctant to change their unhealthy lifestyle associated with cardio pathology.Polymorbidity and psychoactive substance abuse(in males)are the risk factors of suicidal behaviour,while accessibility of medications,including sleeping pills,firearms,etc.contributes to realization of this risk.Living conditions of the elderly and their access to quality social services are important components of wellbeing in terms of health.Despite satisfactory living conditions,the situation significantly differs by type(urban/rural)and size of the settlement.Maintaining microsocial contacts with children,family and friends is a powerful source of psychological comfort and social wellbeing.

Autoimmune hepatitis treatment in the elderly: A systematic review

BACKGROUND Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a rare chronic inflammatory liver disease with a high risk of progression to liver cirrhosis. The initial treatment for AIH usually includes a steroid, with or without azathioprine. AIH can present at any age;however, the most effective and safe induction treatment for AIH in the elderly remains unclear. AIM To systematically review available data on both effectiveness and safety of AIH treatments in elderly subjects. METHODS To identify studies on AIH induction treatment in elderly patients (≥ 60 years of age), an electronic research was performed (PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library databases) until February 2019. Eligible studies were selected through screening of titles and abstracts, followed by full-text critical evaluation. After risk of bias assessment, data on study designs, interventions, and outcomes were extracted and reviewed. RESULTS Among the 1736 retrieved papers, 15 studies were selected. Out of them, eight studies were excluded because of a critical risk of bias. The remaining seven studies included 789 patients and out of them 239 subjects were elders. First-line treatment was a steroid either alone or in combination with azathioprine in most patients (87.6%) and only one study investigated the effect of combined steroid and mycophenolate mofetil therapy. Standard therapy was effective in inducing remission in the elderly. Moreover, treatment failure and relapses occurred less often in the elderly compared to younger people.CONCLUSION Treatment of AIH is challenging in elderly patients. This systematic review confirms the efficacy and safety of standard induction treatment for AIH in the elderly. Available evidence is insufficient to draw any conclusion on the effect of novel AIH treatments in elderly subjects.

Impact of glucose level on morbidity and mortality in elderly with diabetes and pre-diabetes

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM) increases with age and reaches 25% in those older than age 65 years. Pre-diabetes status is also very common in the elderly, and is present in about half of those age 75 years and older. Many physicians care for elderly patients with diabetes and pre-diabetes, dealing with the challenge of controlling glucose levels and improving health with minimal adverse events. Over the last decade, research on diabetes among the elderly population has proliferated, adding new information on this topic. This review summarizes the updated medical literature on diabetes and pre-diabetes in the elderly, including the significance of pre-diabetic conditions, new-onset DM in the elderly and long-standing DM. The role of therapeutic intervention and the level of glycemic control for this population are discussed in particular.

Depression among elderly living in Briddashram (old age home)

Introduction: Depression is a common public health issue with the increasing life expectancy worldwide and depression is associated with morbidity as well as disability among the elderly. There are very few studies related with depression among elderly from developing countries. Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence of depression and its correlates among the elderly living in Briddashram (old age home). Methods: This is a cross-sectional study carried out in 2012. Data were collected by face-to-face interview using short version of Geriatric Depression Scale. The data were analyzed using percentage, mean, simple correlation and regression. Results: The subjects (N = 185) were elderly aged 60 years and above living in Devghat area, Nepal. Mean age of the subjects was 73.67 (±3.23) years old and 51% were male. 94% elderly belong to Khas ethnicity. Nearly one third (31%) elderly were from nuclear family back ground, 25% were married, and only 18% elderly were literate. Majority of the elderly (93%) had health problems and self reported health shows 86% elderly reported their health fair. This study shows mean functional disability score was 2.53 (±2.05). Finding shows the prevalence of depression was 57.8%. Among them 46.7% had mild, 8.9% had moderate and 2.2% had severe depression. A statistically significant correlation was found between feelings of depression and age, sex, previous family type, ethnicity, feeling of loneliness and instrumental activities of daily living. Regression analysis shows that being women, feeling of loneliness and higher the dependency in IADL were predictors of depression. Conclusion: This study indicates that many elderly living in the Briddashram are suffering from depression. There should be some interruption from the concerned authorities so that depression can be reduced which will support to the well-being and quality of life of elderly.

Elderly Feeding and Nutrition during Hospitalization: An Integrative Review

Objective: to search in the current literature the elements that exert an influence on feeding and nutrition in hospitalized aged people. Method: the following strategies were used for the integrative review stages: research question (Population or Patients;Exposure;Outcomes);analysis flowchart (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses);and levels of evidence corresponding to the studies (Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine). The searches were conducted in the MEDLINE/PubMed, Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde, Embase, CINAHL and Scopus databases. Results: the initial search yielded 1808 studies, of which 34 comprised the analysis corpus after applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The assessments corresponding to nutritional status and to the risk factors for hospitalized aged people are fundamental in defining the diet. An association was found between inadequate energy intake, lack of appetite, infections, malignity, delirium and need for assistance in feeding. Dysphagia affected nutritional status and was associated with multimorbidities, cognitive impairment, malnutrition, higher dependence for the activities of daily living, and greater care need. Nutritional support improved the perioperative nutritional status, in addition to reducing the hospitalization times and the number of infectious complications. Conclusion: the main disorder that hinders meeting the nutritional needs is dysphagia, and is associated with aged people’s multimorbidity and dependence. The results provide geriatric and gerontological knowledge about elderly nutrition, in addition to targeting preventive and intervention treatments and care during hospitalization. .

Elderly patients(≥80 years)with acute calculous cholangitis have similar outcomes as non-elderly patients(<80 years):Propensity score-matched analysis

BACKGROUND Acute cholangitis(AC)is a disease spectrum with varying extent of severity.Age≥75 years forms part of the criteria for moderate(Grade II)severity in both the Tokyo Guidelines(TG13 and TG18).Aging is associated with reduced physiological reserves,frailty,and sarcopenia.However,there is evidence that age itself is not the determinant of inferior outcomes in elective and emergency biliary diseases.There is a paucity of reports comparing clinical outcomes amongst elderly patients vs non-elderly patients with AC.AIM To investigate the effect of age(≥80 years)on AC's morbidity and mortality using propensity score matching(PSM).METHODS This is a single-center retrospective cohort study of all patients diagnosed with calculous AC(January 2016 to December 2016)and≥80 years old(January 2012 to December 2016)at a tertiary university-affiliated teaching hospital.Inclusion criteria were patients who were treated for suspected or confirmed AC secondary to biliary stones.Patients with AC on a background of hepatobiliary malignancy,indwelling permanent metallic biliary stents,or concomitant pancreatitis were excluded.Elderly patients were defined as≥80 years old in our study.A 1:1 PSM analysis was performed to reduce selection bias and address confounding factors.Study variables include comorbidities,vital parameters,laboratory and radiological investigations,and type of biliary decompression,including the time for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP).Primary outcomes include in-hospital mortality,30-d and 90-d mortality.Length of hospital stay(LOS)was the secondary outcome.RESULTS Four hundred fifty-seven patients with AC were included in this study(318 elderly,139 non-elderly).PSM analysis resulted in a total of 224 patients(112 elderly,112 non-elderly).The adoption of ERCP between elderly and non-elderly was similar in both the unmatched(elderly 64.8%,non-elderly 61.9%,P=0.551)and matched cohorts(elderly 68.8%and non-elderly 58%,P=0.096).The overall in-hospital mortality,30-d mortality and 90-d mortality was 4.6%,7.4%and 8.5%respectively,with no statistically significant differences between the elderly and non-elderly in both the unmatched and matched cohorts.LOS was longer in the unmatched cohort[elderly 8 d,interquartile range(IQR)6-13,vs non-elderly 8 d,IQR 5-11,P=0.040],but was comparable in the matched cohort(elderly 7.5 d,IQR 5-11,vs non-elderly 8 d,IQR 5-11,P=0.982).Subgroup analysis of patients who underwent ERCP demonstrated the majority of the patients(n=159/292,54.5%)had delayed ERCP(>72 h from presentation).There was no significant difference in LOS,30-d mortality,90-d mortality,and in-hospital mortality in patients who had delayed ERCP in both the unmatched and matched cohort matched cohort:in-hospital mortality[n=1/42(2.4%)vs 1/26(3.8%),P=0.728],30-d mortality[n=2/42(4.8%)vs 2/26(7.7%),P=0.618],90-d mortality[n=2/42(4.8%)vs 2/26(7.7%),P=0.618],and LOS(median 8.5 d,IQR 6-11.3,vs 8.5 d,IQR 6-15.3,P=0.929).CONCLUSION Mortality is indifferent in the elderly(≥80 years old)and non-elderly patients(<80 years old)with AC.

Changes in the death probability of China’s elderly population and rethinking the definition of old age

A study of the age-specific death probability of China’s elderly population from 1982 to 2010 shows that,during the past 30 years,the death probability of China’s elderly population has decreased over time.This indicates that the health status of and meaning of age for the elderly population has been changing.At the same time,changes in economic,social and environmental factors and the development of science and technology have not only greatly changed the lifestyles and work situation of the elderly population,but also provided them with more opportunities to participate in economic and social activities,thus making today’s elderly people“healthier”and“younger”than those of previous generations.In conclusion,the findings of this paper suggest that it is necessary to rethink the traditional definition of elderly population.In addition,changes in the death probability of the elderly population of China also show significant gender and regional differences domestically,and there are gaps in the death probability of the elderly in China versus in developed countries,indicating that China still has a long way to go to complete a fundamental transformation of death patterns.A full understanding of such changes and differences will allow us to redefine old age and develop a new understanding of the aging society.Such an understanding can also help us to reconstruct the public policy system to meet the needs of a future society in which aging is the normal state of affairs.

Angiographic and clinical outcomes in elderly subjects treated with percutaneous coronary intervention following fibrinolytic administration for ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Background Prior studies have demonstrated that the achievement of faster coronary artery flow following reperfusion therapies is associated with improved outcomes among ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. The association of patient age with angiographic characteristics of flow and perfusion after rescue/adjunctive percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) following the administration of fibrinolytic therapy has not been previously investigated. Objectives and Methods We examined the association between age (≥ 70 years or ＜ 70years)and clinical and angiographic outcomes in 1472 STEMI patients who underwent rescue/adjunctive PCI following fibrinolytic therapy in 7 TIMI trials. We hypothesized that elderly patients would have slower post-PCI epicardial flow and worsened outcomes compared to younger patients. Results The 218 patients aged ≥ 70 years (14.8%) had more comorbidities than younger patients. Although these patients had significant angiographic improvement in TIMI frame counts and rates of TIMI Grade 3 flow following rescue/adjunctive PCI, elderly patients had higher (slower)post-PCI TIMI frame counts compared to the younger cohort (25 vs 22 frames, P = 0.039), and less often achieved post-PCI TIMI Grade 3 flow (80.1 vs 86.4%, P = 0.017). The association between age ( ≥70 years) and slower post-PCI flow was independent of gender, time to treatment, left anterior descending (LAD) lesion location, and pulse and blood pressure on admission. Elderly patients also had 4-fold higher mortality at 30 days (12.0 vs 2.7%,P = 0. 001 ). Conclusions This study suggests one possible mechanism underlying worsened outcomes among elderly STEMI patients insofar as advanced chronological age was associated with higher TIMI frame counts and less frequent TIMI Grade 3 flow after rescue/adjunctive PCI.

Elderly donor graft for liver transplantation:Never too late

The definitive treatment for end stage liver disease remains a liver transplant and hence livers are needed for these patients along with cases of acute fulminant liver failure.Hence livers are a scarce and highly valuable commodity in the current time.By extending the pool of donors to include the elderly livers,it allows for increased availability of donors and reduces the mortality that is associated with the waiting list itself.There is an increasing prevalence of end stage liver disease due to conditions like chronic hepatitis B and C,non-alcoholic steatohepatitis,alcoholic liver disease.Many studies show non-inferior outcomes when elderly livers are used as a vigorous selection process is implemented.The process takes into account the characteristics of the donor,graft and recipient allowing for appropriate donor-recipient coupling.To meet the increasing demands of livers,elderly donors should be utilized for liver transplantation.The aim of this review article is to describe the aging process of the liver and the outcomes associated with use of elderly livers for transplantation.

Shanghai expert consensus on clinical protocol for traditional Chinese medicine treatment of COVID-19 among the elderly population(second edition)

This document is the revised edition of the previously issued Shanghai Expert Consensus on Clinical Protocol for Traditional Chinese Medicine Treatment of COVID-19 among the Elderly Population.Based on the clinical experience and the Protocol for Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19(Trial 9th Edition),this revised edition provides treatment approaches and recommendations to proactively cope with Omicron variant and increase the therapeutic efficacy for coronavirus disease 2019 among the elderly population in Shanghai,China.

Aged People in Chinese Society and Housing Planning for the Elderly People

China is galloping to a society of aged people,accord-ing to the Fourth National Population Survey,there hasbeen 97.38 million people over 60 years of age,accountingfor 8.59% of the total population.In other words,there hasbeen an increase of 0.95 Percentage than that of the ThirdNational Population Survey in 1982.The number of elderlypeople increased in the 8 years period at the annual rate of3.02%,which was one time higher than the average total in-crease(1.48). Five cities and provinces,namely,Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin,Zhejiang Province and Jiangsu Provincehave already become aged society.By the end of 1991,elder-ly People has reached 100 million.It is estimated that by2000, China will enter aged People’society with the totalamount of 131 million elderly people,accounting for 10%of the total population.Problems of the elderly People are vitally important so-cial issues.We often say that the children are the future ofmankind and there is no hope for the human being Withoutthe healthy development of

The Strategy of Outdoor Space Micro-Renewal under the Goal of Communities for All Ages: A Case Study of Xingchaibeiyuan Community in Nanchang City

With the rapid development of the city,the old city has gradually lost its former glory,and the old community accounts for a large proportion in the city,and is located in the core area of the city. At present,there are some problems in the old community,such as high degree of aging,poor quality of living space,and lack of outdoor space. The old community transformation is mainly in the way of ' guided reconstruction',it has completely destroyed the original historical environment and the spirit of the place. Therefore,taking Xingchaibeiyuan Community in Nanchang City as an example,we deeply explore the strategy of micro-renewal of community outdoor space,so as to provide a reference for the renewal of outdoor space in this kind of old residential area.

The Assessment of Depok as Age Friendly City (AFC)

Depok has a big opportunity to become an age friendly city (AFC) because it has a large number of posbindu, increased elderly population, it does not have yet the pension security for the elderly people, and it does not have yet the number of infrastructure and social facilities needed for the elderly. Before Depok City becomes an age friendly city, an assessment of the eight-dimensional indicators of AFC had been carried out by a team of UI researchers from Center of Ageing Studies in collaboration with the Institute for Survey METER in March 2013. One of the main finding was the presence of the three indicators of AFC in Depok which still lack, they are buildings and open space, housing, and civil participation and employment. The purpose of the study was to assess the public’s opinion on the three indicators of AFC that still lack in Depok. The study shows that the majority of people and government as stakeholder assess that Depok is ready to become AFC as long as supported by the government of Depok City with the good coordination with related institutions for the budget and programs prioritizing the interests of the elderly. Moreover, the existence of Komda (Comission Area) of Elderly Depok City can support the establishment of a friendly city towards the elderly. The community prefers to choose the indicators of buildings and open spaces as a top priority for elderly-friendly city rather than chooses the indicators of housing and civil participation and employment for the elderly people. Therefore, hopefully Depok City Government with related institutions can build the building which is elderly-friendly as well as AFC socialization to the government and private sectors in order to achieve rapid implementation of Depok as an AFC.

Fitness Age Score and the Risk of Long-Term Care Insurance Certification—The Kyoto-Kameoka Longitudinal Study

Long-Term Care Insurance System has been introduced to provide appropriate care for the elderly who needs nursing care in Japan. Physical function is one of most important function for the elderly to live independently. A previous study had established a Fitness Age Score (FAS) based on a theory for biomarker of aging. This study clarified whether the FAS could be used to predict the need for certification of long-term care (CLTC) in independent elderly people. We included 939 independent, community-dwelling-elderly (average age, 74.4 years) whose physical function was measured and for whom the CLTC was tracked for 24 months. The FAS comprised five physical fitness items: Walking time, grip strength, one-leg standing, vertical jump, and functional reach test. Based on the FAS, we calculated the odds ratio (OR) for the CLTC. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) was used for further analysis. We also used the Youden Index (YI), minimum distance method (MD), and two-graph ROC method (TG) to calculate cutoff values (CVs) for screening. We divided subjects into the low and high physical fitness group with CVs. We developed cumulative CLTC curves using the Kaplan-Meier method. Sixteen people could not be tracked for the full 24 months. The measurement of FAS was completed for 798 people, of whom 28 became CLTC. The measurement of FAS was not completed for 125 people, of whom 21 became CLTC. The CLTC OR for people with incomplete FAS was 5.553. The AUC was 0.72 (p < 0.001). The CVs for the FAS were -0.29 for YI (sensitivity, 92.9% and specificity, 40.4%), -1.23 for MD (57.1% and 73.4%), and -0.81 for TG (60.7% and 60.9%). The cumulative CLTC curves according to CVs all showed significant differences (p = 0.000 - 0.020). In conclusion, the FAS can be used to predict CLTC.