Comparison of China's Carbon Emission Scenarios in 2050

Several representative studies on China＇s carbon emission scenarios in 2050 are compared in scenario settings, methodologies, macro parameters, energy consumption and structure, carbon emissions, and carbon emission intensity. Under the baseline scenario of the present policy framework, the future energy structure will be optimized and carbon emission intensity will decrease continually. China＇s carbon emissions up to 2050 show a significant increase reaching between 11.9 Gt and 16.2 Gt CO2 in 2050. By strengthening a low carbon policy, the optimization of energy structure and the decline in carbon emission intensity will become more obvious within the comparative scenarios, which show a significant decrease in carbon emission until 2050 reaching only between 4.3 Gt and 9.5 Gt CO2 bv then.

Changes in Stratospheric Cl O and HCl Concentrations Under Different Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

In this study, comparison of model results and satellite observations reveals that the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model （WACCM-3） reasonably well reproduced the distributions and seasonal vari- ations of C10 and HC1 concentrations. In three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （A1B, A2, and B1）, the C10, C1, C1ONO2, and HC1 concentrations would gradually decrease with time as emissions of ozone depleting substances （ODS） steadily decrease. The rates of the changes in the C10, C1, C1ONO2, and HC1 concentrations are different in the same emission scenario and the rates of change in the same composition concentration are different for different emission scenarios. The C10, C1, and C1ONO2 concentrations de- crease fastest in scenario A2, next fastest in scenario A1B, and slowest in scenario B1. In contrast, the HC1 concentration decreases fastest in scenario B1. The ozone concentration recovers quickly, and is highest in scenario A2. The results show that a rapid decrease in the C10 concentration is an important reason for the accelerated recovery of the ozone layer in scenario A2.

An Empirical Study on China＇s Energy Supply-and-Demand Model Considering Carbon Emission Peak Constraints in 2030

China＇s energy supply-and-demand model and two related carbon emission scenarios, including a planned peak scenario and an advanced peak scenario, are designed taking into consideration China＇s economic development, technological progress, policies, resources, environmental capacity, and other factors. The analysis of the defined scenarios provides the following conclusions： Primary energy and power demand will continue to grow leading up to 2030, and the growth rate of power demand will be much higher than that of primary energy demand. Moreover, low carbonization will be a basic feature of energy supply-and-demand structural changes, and non-fossil energy will replace oil as the second largest energy source. Finally, energy- related carbon emissions could peak in 2025 through the application of more efficient energy consumption patterns and more low-carbon energy supply modes. The push toward decarbonization of the power industry is essential for reducing the peak value of carbon emissions.

Historical Change and Future Scenarios of Sea Level Rise in Macao and Adjacent Waters

Against a background of climate change, Macao is very exposed to sea level rise （SLR） because of its low elevation, small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macao, both historical and, especially, possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macao is now rising at an accelerated rate： 1.35 mm yr-1 over 1925-2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr I over 1970-2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macao contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macao will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8-12, 22-51 and 35-118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the --8.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP8.5） scenario the increase in sea level by 2100 will reach 65 118 cm--double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21st century but begin to diverge thereafter.

Implications of future climate change on crop and irrigation water requirements in a semi-arid river basin using CMIP6 GCMs

Agriculture faces risks due to increasing stress from climate change,particularly in semi-arid regions.Lack of understanding of crop water requirement(CWR)and irrigation water requirement(IWR)in a changing climate may result in crop failure and socioeconomic problems that can become detrimental to agriculture-based economies in emerging nations worldwide.Previous research in CWR and IWR has largely focused on large river basins and scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3(CMIP3)and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)to account for the impacts of climate change on crops.Smaller basins,however,are more susceptible to regional climate change,with more significant impacts on crops.This study estimates CWRs and IWRs for five crops(sugarcane,wheat,cotton,sorghum,and soybean)in the Pravara River Basin(area of 6537 km^(2))of India using outputs from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)General Circulation Models(GCMs)under Shared Socio-economic Pathway(SSP)245 and SSP585 scenarios.An increase in mean annual rainfall is projected under both scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s using ten selected CMIP6 GCMs.CWRs for all crops may decline in almost all of the CMIP6 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s(with the exceptions of ACCESS-CM-2 and ACCESS-ESM-1.5)under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.The availability of increasing soil moisture in the root zone due to increasing rainfall and a decrease in the projected maximum temperature may be responsible for this decline in CWR.Similarly,except for soybean and cotton,the projected IWRs for all other three crops under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios show a decrease or a small increase in the 2050s and 2080s in most CMIP6 GCMs.These findings are important for agricultural researchers and water resource managers to implement long-term crop planning techniques and to reduce the negative impacts of climate change and associated rainfall variability to avert crop failure and agricultural losses.

City-specific vehicle emission control strategies to achieve stringent emission reduction targets in China's Yangtze River Delta region

The Yangtze River Delta（YRD） region is one of the most prosperous and densely populated regions in China and is facing tremendous pressure to mitigate vehicle emissions and improve air quality.Our assessment has revealed that mitigating vehicle emissions of NOx would be more difficult than reducing the emissions of other major vehicular pollutants（e.g.,CO,HC and PM_（2.5）） in the YRD region.Even in Shanghai,where the emission control implemented are more stringent than in Jiangsu and Zhejiang,we observed little to no reduction in NOx emissions from 2000 to 2010.Emission-reduction targets for HC,NOx and PM_（2.5） are determined using a response surface modeling tool for better air quality.We design city-specific emission control strategies for three vehicle-populated cities in the YRD region：Shanghai and Nanjing and Wuxi in Jiangsu.Our results indicate that even if stringent emission control consisting of the Euro 6/VI standards,the limitation of vehicle population and usage,and the scrappage of older vehicles is applied,Nanjing and Wuxi will not be able to meet the NOx emissions target by 2020.Therefore,additional control measures are proposed for Nanjing and Wuxi to further mitigate NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles.

Developing China's roadmap for air quality improvement:A review on technology development and future prospects

Air pollution control policies in China have been experiencing profound changes,highlighting a strategic transformation from total pollutant emission control to air quality improvement,along with the shifting targets starting from acid rain and NO_(x)emissions to PM_(2.5)pollution,and then the emerging O_(3)challenges.The marvelous achievements have been made with the dramatic decrease of SO_(2)emission and fundamental improvement of PM_(2.5)concentration.Despite these achievements,China has proposed Beautiful China target through 2035 and the goal of 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality,which impose stricter requirements on air quality and synergistic mitigation with Greenhouse Gas(GHG)emissions.Against this background,an integrated multi-objective and multi-benefit roadmap is required to provide decision support for China’s long-term air quality improvement strategy.This paper systematically reviews the technical system for developing the air quality improvement roadmap,which was integrated from the research output of China’s National Key R&D Program for Research on Atmospheric Pollution Factors and Control Technologies(hereafter Special NKP),covering mid-and long-term air quality target setting techniques,quantitative analysis techniques for emission reduction targets corresponding to air quality targets,and pathway optimization techniques for realizing reduction targets.The experience and lessons derived from the reviews have implications for the reformation of China’s air quality improvement roadmap in facing challenges of synergistic mitigation of PM_(2.5)and O_(3),and the coupling with climate change mitigation.

Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.

Effects of Tillage and Crop Residue Management on Maize Yields and Net Returns in the Central Mexican Highlands Under Drought Conditions

In the subtropical highlands of Central Mexico, where the main crop is maize （Zea mays）, the conventional practice （CP） involves tillage, monoculture and residue removal, leading to soil degradation and unsustainable use of natural resources and agricultural inputs. Conservation agriculture （CA） has been proposed as a viable alternative in the region, based on reduction in tillage, retention of adequate levels of crop residues and soil surface cover and use of crop rotation. This study began in 2009 when the highlands of Central Mexico suffered from a prolonged drought during vegetative maize growth in July-August, providing an opportunity for the on-farm comparison of CA with CP under severe drought conditions which 21 climate change models projected to become more frequent. Under dry conditions, CA resulted in higher yields and net returns per hectare as early as the first and second years after adoption by farmers. As an average of 27 plots under farmers＇ management in 2009, the maize yields were 26% higher under CA （6.3 t ha-1） than under CP （5.0 t ha-l）. 2010 was close to a normal year in terms of rainfall so yields were higher than in 2009 for both practices; in addition, the yield difference between the practices was reduced to 19% （6.8 t ha-1 for CA vs. 5.7 t ha-1 for CP）. When all the 2009 and 2010 observations were analyzed in a modified stability analysis, CA had an overall positive effect of 3 838 Mexican Pesos ha-1 （320 $US ha-1） on net return and 1.3 t ha-1 on yield. After only one to two years of adoption by farmers on their fields, CA had higher yields and net returns under dry conditions that were even drier than those predicted by the analyzed 21 climate change models under a climate change scenario, emission scenario A2.

Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling（RSM） methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool（VAT） for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S.demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias 〈 2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time.