This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparativ...This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.展开更多
Although the Cointegration Theory was founded by the C.W.J Granger and other economists in the 1980s, it was not widely used in China until C.W.J Granger was awarded with Nobel Prize in 2003. Since then, a lot of econ...Although the Cointegration Theory was founded by the C.W.J Granger and other economists in the 1980s, it was not widely used in China until C.W.J Granger was awarded with Nobel Prize in 2003. Since then, a lot of economic papers introducing or applying Cointegration Theory have emerged, but the phenomenon of misuse of this theory possibly arose at the same time. Based on some of these papers obtained from web site （www.cnki.net）, this paper explores the applications of Cointegration Theory in China and draws some initial conclusions. Most of these applications are reasonable, but some of them are a bit blindfold or even contradictory in conclusions, which indicates that the overall application quality has a large room to get improved and should be paid more attention by academe.展开更多
为研究山东省商贸流通业与城乡一体化间的耦合协调关系,从市场环境和业态规模2个维度构建商贸流通业的评价指标体系,从经济发展、社会发展和空间环境3个维度构建城乡一体化的评价指标体系,以山东省2012—2021年的指标数据为样本,分析山...为研究山东省商贸流通业与城乡一体化间的耦合协调关系,从市场环境和业态规模2个维度构建商贸流通业的评价指标体系,从经济发展、社会发展和空间环境3个维度构建城乡一体化的评价指标体系,以山东省2012—2021年的指标数据为样本,分析山东省商贸流通业与城乡一体化的关系。将熵权法与逼近理想解排序(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)法相结合计算指标权重,确定二者的发展指数,采用协整检验模型验证二者间的协整关系,以综合评价指数建立耦合协调度模型定量研究二者间的耦合协调关系,通过灰色关联度模型分析二者指标的关联度,确定影响二者耦合协调关系的关键因素。结果表明:城乡一体化水平每上升1个单位,商贸流通业的发展指数增大0.867个单位;2012—2021年山东省商贸流通业与城乡一体化间存在较强的耦合关系,耦合协调度从严重失调调整到优质协调;山东省商贸流通业和城乡一体化整体的灰色关联度较高。通过政策倾斜、资金扶持等措施加大资源要素投入,完善乡村基础设施,改善商贸流通业发展环境,搭建城乡商贸一体化发展体系,促进商贸流通业和城乡一体化的良性互动。展开更多
文摘This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.
文摘Although the Cointegration Theory was founded by the C.W.J Granger and other economists in the 1980s, it was not widely used in China until C.W.J Granger was awarded with Nobel Prize in 2003. Since then, a lot of economic papers introducing or applying Cointegration Theory have emerged, but the phenomenon of misuse of this theory possibly arose at the same time. Based on some of these papers obtained from web site （www.cnki.net）, this paper explores the applications of Cointegration Theory in China and draws some initial conclusions. Most of these applications are reasonable, but some of them are a bit blindfold or even contradictory in conclusions, which indicates that the overall application quality has a large room to get improved and should be paid more attention by academe.
基金the State Basic Science and Technology Key Project of China (No. 2007FY110300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 40671062)+3 种基金the Project of the Chinese Academy of Science Action-plan for West development(the Second Phase)the China Meteorological Administration Research Project on Climate Changethe Innovation Project of the Institute of Geographic SciencesNatural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘为研究山东省商贸流通业与城乡一体化间的耦合协调关系,从市场环境和业态规模2个维度构建商贸流通业的评价指标体系,从经济发展、社会发展和空间环境3个维度构建城乡一体化的评价指标体系,以山东省2012—2021年的指标数据为样本,分析山东省商贸流通业与城乡一体化的关系。将熵权法与逼近理想解排序(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)法相结合计算指标权重,确定二者的发展指数,采用协整检验模型验证二者间的协整关系,以综合评价指数建立耦合协调度模型定量研究二者间的耦合协调关系,通过灰色关联度模型分析二者指标的关联度,确定影响二者耦合协调关系的关键因素。结果表明:城乡一体化水平每上升1个单位,商贸流通业的发展指数增大0.867个单位;2012—2021年山东省商贸流通业与城乡一体化间存在较强的耦合关系,耦合协调度从严重失调调整到优质协调;山东省商贸流通业和城乡一体化整体的灰色关联度较高。通过政策倾斜、资金扶持等措施加大资源要素投入,完善乡村基础设施,改善商贸流通业发展环境,搭建城乡商贸一体化发展体系,促进商贸流通业和城乡一体化的良性互动。
