Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

基于改进SMOTE算法和Ensemble模型的学习结果预测方法

为解决不同领域的数据分类和预测任务中单个机器学习算法适用性较差的问题,以及缓解数据集严重不平衡对预测性能的影响,提出了基于合成少数类过采样(SMOTE)和Ensemble集成模型的数据分类方法。传统SMOTE算法通过对少数类样本进行插值来生成新的合成样本,合成样本中存在噪声和样本间相似性较高的问题。为此,提出了改进的SMOTE算法,通过距离计算移除噪声样本和易混淆样本,得到高区分度的纯净合成样本。然后,利用Ensemble方法调整样本和分类器权重,并组成分类效果更好的强分类器。在公开在线学习数据集Kalboard360上的实验结果表明,使用极限随机树(ERT)分类器时,结合改进SMOTE和Ensemble模型后实现了97.9%的预测准确度,比单个ERT分类器提升了5.5%,证明所提改进SMOTE算法能够生成高质量的均衡化数据,且集成学习模型的性能显著优于单个机器学习算法。

Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun(2014)

Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and ventilation.We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of RI.As expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI.The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall.We present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear.For the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants.For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger ventilation.Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.

An efficient framework for ensemble of natural disaster simulations as a service

Calculations of risk from natural disasters may require ensembles of hundreds of thousands of simulations to accurately quantify the complex relationships between the outcome of a disaster and its contributing factors.Such large ensembles cannot typically be run on a single computer due to the limited computational resources available.Cloud Computing offers an attractive alternative,with an almost unlimited capacity for computation,storage,and network bandwidth.However,there are no clear mechanisms that define how to implement these complex natural disaster ensembles on the Cloud with minimal time and resources.As such,this paper proposes a system framework with two phases of cost optimization to run the ensembles as a service over Cloud.The cost is minimized through efficient distribution of the simulations among the cost-efficient instances and intelligent choice of the instances based on pricing models.We validate the proposed framework using real Cloud environment with real wildfire ensemble scenarios under different user requirements.The experimental results give an edge to the proposed system over the bag-of-task type execution on the Clouds with less cost and better flexibility.

The construction of general basis functions in reweighting ensemble dynamics simulations: Reproduce equilibrium distribution in complex systems from multiple short simulation trajectories

Ensemble simulations, which use multiple short independent trajectories from dispersive initial conformations, rather than a single long trajectory as used in traditional simulations, are expected to sample complex systems such as biomolecules much more efficiently. The re-weighted ensemble dynamics（RED） is designed to combine these short trajectories to reconstruct the global equilibrium distribution. In the RED, a number of conformational functions, named as basis functions,are applied to relate these trajectories to each other, then a detailed-balance-based linear equation is built, whose solution provides the weights of these trajectories in equilibrium distribution. Thus, the sufficient and efficient selection of basis functions is critical to the practical application of RED. Here, we review and present a few possible ways to generally construct basis functions for applying the RED in complex molecular systems. Especially, for systems with less priori knowledge, we could generally use the root mean squared deviation（RMSD） among conformations to split the whole conformational space into a set of cells, then use the RMSD-based-cell functions as basis functions. We demonstrate the application of the RED in typical systems, including a two-dimensional toy model, the lattice Potts model, and a short peptide system. The results indicate that the RED with the constructions of basis functions not only more efficiently sample the complex systems, but also provide a general way to understand the metastable structure of conformational space.

Reweighted ensemble dynamics simulations:Theory,improvement,and application

Based on multiple parallel short molecular dynamics simulation trajectories, we designed the reweighted ensem- ble dynamics （RED） method to more efficiently sample complex （biopolymer） systems, and to explore their hierarchical metastable states. Here we further present an improvement to depress statistical errors of the RED and we discuss a few keys in practical application of the RED, provide schemes on selection of basis functions, and determination of the free parameter in the RED. We illustrate the application of the improvements in two toy models and in the solvated alanine dipeptide. The results show the RED enables us to capture the topology of multiple-state transition networks, to detect the diffusion-like dynamical behavior in an entropy-dominated system, and to identify solvent effects in the solvated peptides. The illustrations serve as general applications of the RED in more complex biopolymer systems.

CAS FGOALS-f3-L Large-ensemble Simulations for the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project

Large-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project(PAMIP)were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALS-f3-L).Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature(SST)and sea ice concentration(SIC)for pre-industrial,present-day,and future conditions were performed and published.The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members,with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period.The basic model responses of the surface air temperature(SAT)and precipitation were documented.The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes.The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes,which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC.However,the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC,partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes.The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members.The relative roles of SST and SIC,together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification,are also discussed.All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.

Double ionization of helium interacting with elliptically polarized laser pulse by classical ensemble simulations

This paper uses the classical ensemble method to study the double ionization of a 2-dimensional （2D） model helium atom interacting with an elliptically polarized laser pulse. The classical ensemble calculation demonstrates that the ratio of double to single ionization decreases with the increasing ellipticity of the driving field. The classical scenario shows that there are hardly any e--e recollisions with the circularly polarized laser pulse. The double ionization probability is studied for linearly and circularly polarized laser pulses. The classical numerical results are consistent with the semiclassical rescattering mechanism and in agreement with the experimental results and the quantum calculations qualitatively.

Exhaustive review of acceleration strategies for Monte Carlo simulations in photon transit

Monte Carlo simulation techniques have become the quintessence and a pivotal nexus of inquiry in the realm of simulating photon movement within biological fabrics.Through the stochastic sampling of tissue archetypes delineated by explicit optical characteristics,Monte Carlo simulations possess the theoretical capacity to render unparalleled accuracy in the depiction of exceedingly intricate phenomena.Nonetheless,the quintessential challenge associated with Monte Carlo simulation methodologies resides in their extended computational duration,which significantly impedes the refinement of their precision.Consequently,this discourse is specifically dedicated to exploring innovations in strategies and technologies aimed at expediting Monte Carlo simulations.It delves into the foundational concepts of various acceleration tactics,evaluates these strategies concerning their speed,accuracy,and practicality,and amalgamates a comprehensive overview and critique of acceleration methodologies for Monte Carlo simulations.Ultimately,the discourse envisages prospective trajectories for the employment of Monte Carlo techniques within the domain of tissue optics.

Scale-dependent Regional Climate Predictability over North America Inferred from CMIP3 and CMIP5 Ensemble Simulations

Through the analysis of ensembles of coupled model simulations and projections collected from CMIP3 and CMIP5, we demonstrate that a fundamental spatial scale limit might exist below which useful additional refinement of climate model predictions and projections may not be possible. That limit varies among climate variables and from region to region. We show that the uncertainty（noise） in surface temperature predictions（represented by the spread among an ensemble of global climate model simulations） generally exceeds the ensemble mean（signal） at horizontal scales below 1000 km throughout North America, implying poor predictability at those scales. More limited skill is shown for the predictability of regional precipitation. The ensemble spread in this case tends to exceed or equal the ensemble mean for scales below 2000 km. These findings highlight the challenges in predicting regionally specific future climate anomalies, especially for hydroclimatic impacts such as drought and wetness.

Global hybrid simulations of soft X-ray emissions in the Earth’s magnetosheath

Earth’s magnetopause is a thin boundary separating the shocked solar wind plasma from the magnetospheric plasmas,and it is also the boundary of the solar wind energy transport to the magnetosphere.Soft X-ray imaging allows investigation of the large-scale magnetopause by providing a two-dimensional(2-D)global view from a satellite.By performing 3-D global hybrid-particle-in-cell(hybrid-PIC)simulations,we obtain soft X-ray images of Earth’s magnetopause under different solar wind conditions,such as different plasma densities and directions of the southward interplanetary magnetic field.In all cases,magnetic reconnection occurs at low latitude magnetopause.The soft X-ray images observed by a hypothetical satellite are shown,with all of the following identified:the boundary of the magnetopause,the cusps,and the magnetosheath.Local X-ray emissivity in the magnetosheath is characterized by large amplitude fluctuations(up to 160%);however,the maximum line-of-sight-integrated X-ray intensity matches the tangent directions of the magnetopause well,indicating that these fluctuations have limited impact on identifying the magnetopause boundary in the X-ray images.Moreover,the magnetopause boundary can be identified using multiple viewing geometries.We also find that solar wind conditions have little effect on the magnetopause identification.The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)mission will provide X-ray images of the magnetopause for the first time,and our global hybrid-PIC simulation results can help better understand the 2-D X-ray images of the magnetopause from a 3-D perspective,with particle kinetic effects considered.

Non-crossing Quantile Regression Neural Network as a Calibration Tool for Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.

Detection and defending the XSS attack using novel hybrid stacking ensemble learning-based DNN approach

Existing web-based security applications have failed in many situations due to the great intelligence of attackers.Among web applications,Cross-Site Scripting(XSS)is one of the dangerous assaults experienced while modifying an organization's or user's information.To avoid these security challenges,this article proposes a novel,all-encompassing combination of machine learning(NB,SVM,k-NN)and deep learning(RNN,CNN,LSTM)frameworks for detecting and defending against XSS attacks with high accuracy and efficiency.Based on the representation,a novel idea for merging stacking ensemble with web applications,termed“hybrid stacking”,is proposed.In order to implement the aforementioned methods,four distinct datasets,each of which contains both safe and unsafe content,are considered.The hybrid detection method can adaptively identify the attacks from the URL,and the defense mechanism inherits the advantages of URL encoding with dictionary-based mapping to improve prediction accuracy,accelerate the training process,and effectively remove the unsafe JScript/JavaScript keywords from the URL.The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid model is more efficient than the existing detection methods.It produces more than 99.5%accurate XSS attack classification results(accuracy,precision,recall,f1_score,and Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC))and is highly resistant to XSS attacks.In order to ensure the security of the server's information,the proposed hybrid approach is demonstrated in a real-time environment.

Propagation Properties of Shock Waves in Polyurethane Foam based on Atomistic Simulations

Porous materials are widely used in the field of protection because of their excellent energy absorption characteristics.In this work,a series of polyurethane microscopic models are established and the effect of porosity on the shock waves is studied with classical molecular dynamics simulations.Firstly,shock Hugoniot relations for different porosities are obtained,which compare well with the experimental data.The pores collapse and form local stress wave,which results in the complex multi-wave structure of the shock wave.The microstructure analysis shows that the local stress increases and the local velocity decreases gradually during the process of pore collapse to complete compaction.Finally,it leads to stress relaxation and velocity homogenization.The shock stress peaks can be fitted with two exponential functions,and the amplitude of attenuation coefficient decreases with the increase of density.Besides,the pore collapse under shock or non-shock are discussed by the entropy increase rate of the system.The energy is dissipated mainly through the multiple interactions of the waves under shock.The energy is dissipated mainly by the friction between atoms under non-shock.

Magnetopause properties at the dusk magnetospheric flank from global magnetohydrodynamic simulations,the kinetic Vlasov equilibrium,and in situ observations--Potential implications for SMILE

We derived the properties of the terrestrial magnetopause(MP)from two modeling approaches,one global–fluid,the other local–kinetic,and compared the results with data collected in situ by the Magnetospheric Multiscale 2(MMS2)spacecraft.We used global magnetohydrodynamic(MHD)simulations of the Earth’s magnetosphere(publicly available from the NASA-CCMC[National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Community Coordinated Modeling Center])and local Vlasov equilibrium models(based on kinetic models for tangential discontinuities)to extract spatial profiles of the plasma and field variables at the Earth’s MP.The global MHD simulations used initial solar wind conditions extracted from the OMNI database at the time epoch when the MMS2 observes the MP.The kinetic Vlasov model used asymptotic boundary conditions derived from the same in situ MMS measurements upstream or downstream of the MP.The global MHD simulations provide a three-dimensional image of the magnetosphere at the time when the MMS2 crosses the MP.The Vlasov model provides a one-dimensional local view of the MP derived from first principles of kinetic theory.The MMS2 experimental data also serve as a reference for comparing and validating the numerical simulations and modeling.We found that the MP transition layer formed in global MHD simulations was generally localized closer to the Earth(roughly by one Earth radius)from the position of the real MP observed by the MMS.We also found that the global MHD simulations overestimated the thickness of the MP transition by one order of magnitude for three analyzed variables:magnetic field,density,and tangential speed.The MP thickness derived from the local Vlasov equilibrium was consistent with observations for all three of these variables.The overestimation of density in the Vlasov equilibrium was reduced compared with the global MHD solutions.We discuss our results in the context of future SMILE(Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer)campaigns for observing the Earth’s MP.

A New Speed Limit Recognition Methodology Based on Ensemble Learning:Hardware Validation

Advanced DriverAssistance Systems(ADAS)technologies can assist drivers or be part of automatic driving systems to support the driving process and improve the level of safety and comfort on the road.Traffic Sign Recognition System(TSRS)is one of themost important components ofADAS.Among the challengeswith TSRS is being able to recognize road signs with the highest accuracy and the shortest processing time.Accordingly,this paper introduces a new real time methodology recognizing Speed Limit Signs based on a trio of developed modules.Firstly,the Speed Limit Detection(SLD)module uses the Haar Cascade technique to generate a new SL detector in order to localize SL signs within captured frames.Secondly,the Speed Limit Classification(SLC)module,featuring machine learning classifiers alongside a newly developed model called DeepSL,harnesses the power of a CNN architecture to extract intricate features from speed limit sign images,ensuring efficient and precise recognition.In addition,a new Speed Limit Classifiers Fusion(SLCF)module has been developed by combining trained ML classifiers and the DeepSL model by using the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and ensemble learning’s voting technique.Through rigorous software and hardware validation processes,the proposedmethodology has achieved highly significant F1 scores of 99.98%and 99.96%for DS theory and the votingmethod,respectively.Furthermore,a prototype encompassing all components demonstrates outstanding reliability and efficacy,with processing times of 150 ms for the Raspberry Pi board and 81.5 ms for the Nano Jetson board,marking a significant advancement in TSRS technology.

Intrusion Detection System for Smart Industrial Environments with Ensemble Feature Selection and Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Smart Industrial environments use the Industrial Internet of Things(IIoT)for their routine operations and transform their industrial operations with intelligent and driven approaches.However,IIoT devices are vulnerable to cyber threats and exploits due to their connectivity with the internet.Traditional signature-based IDS are effective in detecting known attacks,but they are unable to detect unknown emerging attacks.Therefore,there is the need for an IDS which can learn from data and detect new threats.Ensemble Machine Learning(ML)and individual Deep Learning(DL)based IDS have been developed,and these individual models achieved low accuracy;however,their performance can be improved with the ensemble stacking technique.In this paper,we have proposed a Deep Stacked Neural Network(DSNN)based IDS,which consists of two stacked Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)models as base learners and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGB)as the meta learner.The proposed DSNN model was trained and evaluated with the next-generation dataset,TON_IoT.Several pre-processing techniques were applied to prepare a dataset for the model,including ensemble feature selection and the SMOTE technique.Accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,and false positive rates were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed ensemble model.Our experimental results showed that the accuracy for binary classification is 99.61%,which is better than in the baseline individual DL and ML models.In addition,the model proposed for IDS has been compared with similar models.The proposed DSNN achieved better performance metrics than the other models.The proposed DSNN model will be used to develop enhanced IDS for threat mitigation in smart industrial environments.

Bridging element-free Galerkin and pluri-Gaussian simulation for geological uncertainty estimation in an ensemble smoother data assimilation framework

The facies distribution of a reservoir is one of the biggest concerns for geologists,geophysicists,reservoir modelers,and reservoir engineers due to its high importance in the setting of any reliable decisionmaking/optimization of field development planning.The approach for parameterizing the facies distribution as a random variable comes naturally through using the probability fields.Since the prior probability fields of facies come either from a seismic inversion or from other sources of geologic information,they are not conditioned to the data observed from the cores extracted from the wells.This paper presents a regularized element-free Galerkin(R-EFG)method for conditioning facies probability fields to facies observation.The conditioned probability fields respect all the conditions of the probability theory(i.e.all the values are between 0 and 1,and the sum of all fields is a uniform field of 1).This property achieves by an optimization procedure under equality and inequality constraints with the gradient projection method.The conditioned probability fields are further used as the input in the adaptive pluri-Gaussian simulation(APS)methodology and coupled with the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation(ES-MDA)for estimation and uncertainty quantification of the facies distribution.The history-matching of the facies models shows a good estimation and uncertainty quantification of facies distribution,a good data match and prediction capabilities.

Machine learning ensemble model prediction of northward shift in potato cyst nematodes(Globodera rostochiensis and G.pallida)distribution under climate change conditions

Potato cyst nematodes(PCNs)are a significant threat to potato production,having caused substantial damage in many countries.Predicting the future distribution of PCN species is crucial to implementing effective biosecurity strategies,especially given the impact of climate change on pest species invasion and distribution.Machine learning(ML),specifically ensemble models,has emerged as a powerful tool in predicting species distributions due to its ability to learn and make predictions based on complex data sets.Thus,this research utilised advanced machine learning techniques to predict the distribution of PCN species under climate change conditions,providing the initial element for invasion risk assessment.We first used Global Climate Models to generate homogeneous climate predictors to mitigate the variation among predictors.Then,five machine learning models were employed to build two groups of ensembles,single-algorithm ensembles(ESA)and multi-algorithm ensembles(EMA),and compared their performances.In this research,the EMA did not always perform better than the ESA,and the ESA of Artificial Neural Network gave the highest performance while being cost-effective.Prediction results indicated that the distribution range of PCNs would shift northward with a decrease in tropical zones and an increase in northern latitudes.However,the total area of suitable regions will not change significantly,occupying 16-20%of the total land surface(18%under current conditions).This research alerts policymakers and practitioners to the risk of PCNs’incursion into new regions.Additionally,this ML process offers the capability to track changes in the distribution of various species and provides scientifically grounded evidence for formulating long-term biosecurity plans for their control.

Statistical Process Monitoring Based on Ensemble Structure Analysis

Dear Editor,This letter presents a novel process monitoring model based on ensemble structure analysis(ESA).The ESA model takes advantage of principal component analysis(PCA),locality preserving projections(LPP),and multi-manifold projections(MMP)models,and then combines the multiple solutions within an ensemble result through Bayesian inference.In the developed ESA model,different structure features of the given dataset are taken into account simultaneously,the suitability and reliability of the ESA-based monitoring model are then illustrated through comparison.Introduction:The requirement for ensuring safe operation and improving process efficiency has led to increased research activity in the field of process monitoring.