An Error Equivalent Model of Revolute Joints with Clearances for Antenna Pointing Mechanisms

Joint clearances in antenna pointing mechanisms lead to uncertainty in function deviation. Current studies mainly focus on radial clearance of revolute joints, while axial clearance has rarely been taken into consideration. In fact, own?ing to errors from machining and assembly, thermal deformation and so forth, practically, axial clearance is inevitable in the joint. In this study, an error equivalent model(EEM) of revolute joints is proposed with considering both radial and axial clearances. Compared to the planar model of revolute joints only considering radial clearance, the journal motion inside the bearing is more abundant and matches the reality better in the EEM. The model is also extended for analyzing the error distribution of a spatial dual?axis("X–Y" type) antenna pointing mechanism of Spot?beam antennas which especially demand a high pointing accuracy. Three case studies are performed which illustrates the internal relation between radial clearance and axial clearance. It is found that when the axial clearance is big enough, the physical journal can freely realize both translational motion and rotational motion. While if the axial clearance is limited, the motion of the physical journal will be restricted. Analysis results indicate that the consideration of both radial and axial clearances in the revolute joint describes the journal motion inside the bearing more precise. To further validate the proposed model, a model of the EEM is designed and fabricated. Some suggestions on the design of revolute joints are also provided.

An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:Part I—Model Error Estimation by Iteration

Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.

Correction of CMPAS Precipitation Products over Complex Terrain Areas with Machine Learning Models

Machine learning models were used to improve the accuracy of China Meteorological Administration Multisource Precipitation Analysis System(CMPAS)in complex terrain areas by combining rain gauge precipitation with topographic factors like altitude,slope,slope direction,slope variability,surface roughness,and meteorological factors like temperature and wind speed.The results of the correction demonstrated that the ensemble learning method has a considerably corrective effect and the three methods(Random Forest,AdaBoost,and Bagging)adopted in the study had similar results.The mean bias between CMPAS and 85%of automatic weather stations has dropped by more than 30%.The plateau region displays the largest accuracy increase,the winter season shows the greatest error reduction,and decreasing precipitation improves the correction outcome.Additionally,the heavy precipitation process’precision has improved to some degree.For individual stations,the revised CMPAS error fluctuation range is significantly reduced.

Dynamic Accuracy Analysis of a 5PSS/UPU Parallel Mechanism Based on Rigid-Flexible Coupled Modeling

In order to improve the low output accuracy caused by the elastic deformations of the branch chains,a finite element-based dynamic accuracy analysis method for parallel mechanisms is proposed in this paper.First,taking a 5-prismatic-spherical-spherical(PSS)/universal-prismatic-universal(UPU)parallel mechanism as an example,the error model is established by a closed vector chain method,while its influence on the dynamic accuracy of the parallel mechanism is analyzed through numerical simulation.According to the structural and error characteristics of the parallel mechanism,a vector calibration algorithm is proposed to reduce the position and pose errors along the whole motion trajectory.Then,considering the elastic deformation of the rod,the rigid-flexible coupling dynamic equations of each component are established by combining the finite element method with the Lagrange method.The elastodynamic model of the whole machine is obtained based on the constraint condition of each moving part,and the correctness of the model is verified by simulation.Moreover,the effect of component flexibility on the dimensionless root mean square error of the displacement,velocity and acceleration of the moving platform is investigated by using a Newmark method,and the mapping relationship of these dimensionless root mean square errors to dynamic accuracy is further studied.The research work provides a theoretical basis for the design of the parameter size of the prototype.

Research on the Relationship between Income and Consumption of the Urban Residents in Hunan Province on the Basis of Error Correction Model

By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.

Error Analysis of Three Degree-of-Freedom Changeable Parallel Measuring Mechanism

A three degree-of-freedom (DOF) planar changeable parallel mechanism is designed by means of control of different drive parameters. This mechanism possesses the characteristics of two kinds of parallel mechanism. Based on its topologic structure, a coordinate system for position analysis is set-up and the forward kinematic solutions are analyzed. It was found that the parallel mechanism is partially decoupled. The relationship between original errors and position-stance error of moving platform is built according to the complete differential-coefficient theory. Then we present a special example with theory values and errors to evaluate the error model, and numerical error solutions are gained. The investigations concentrating on mechanism errors and actuator errors show that the mechanism errors have more influences on the position-stance of the moving platform. It is demonstrated that improving manufacturing and assembly techniques can greatly reduce the moving platform error. The small change in position-stance error in different kinematic positions proves that the error-compensation of software can improve considerably the precision of parallel mechanism.

An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:PartⅡ——Systematic Model Error Correction

An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given the analyses, the ME in each interval （6 h） between two analyses can be iteratively obtained by introducing an unknown tendency term into the prediction equation, shown in Part I of this two-paper series. In this part, after analyzing the 5-year （2001-2005） GRAPES- GFS （Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） error patterns and evolution, a systematic model error correction is given based on the least-squares approach by firstly using the past MEs. To test the correction, we applied the approach in GRAPES-GFS for July 2009 and January 2010. The datasets associated with the initial condition and SST used in this study were based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results indicated that the Northern Hemispheric systematically underestimated equator-to-pole geopotential gradient and westerly wind of GRAPES-GFS were largely enhanced, and the biases of temperature and wind in the tropics were strongly reduced. Therefore, the correction results in a more skillful forecast with lower mean bias and root-mean-square error and higher anomaly correlation coefficient.

Relationship Between Agricultural Credits and Agricultural Economy Based on Error Correct Model in Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the center of agriculture economy.However,the low comparative advantage in agriculture and pursuit of the capital interests which aggravate the conflicts of supply and demand of agricultural funds.Lacking of fund is the main factor that constrains the development of agricultural economy.In order to analyze the economic effect of agricultural credits on agricultural economy,an error correction model was set up to research the relationship between them,which based on the least square methods.Through the study of the contribution from agricultural credits to total value of agricultural out-put,the empirical evidence for developing the rural financial vigorously was provided,in order to promote the agricultura leconomic development.

Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction

In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors （ACE） based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction （NWP）. The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model, Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.

Improved algorithm of atmospheric refraction error in Longley-Rice channel model

Longley-Rice channel model modifies the atmospheric refraction by the equivalent earth radius method, which is simple calculation but is not accurate. As it only uses the horizontal difference, but does not make use of the vertical section information, it does not agree with the actual propagation path. The atmospheric refraction error correction method of the Longley-Rice channel model has been improved. The improved method makes use of the vertical section information sufficiently and maps the distance between the receiver and transmitter to the radio wave propagation distance, It can exactly reflect the infection of propagation distance for the radio wave propagation loss. It is predicted to be more close to the experimental results by simulation in comparison with the measured data. The effectiveness of improved methods is proved by simulation.

Local Influence on the Error-Correction Variable in a Cointegrated System

The concept of cointegration describes an equilibrium relationship among a set of time-varying variables, and the cointegrated relationship can be represented through an error-correction model (ECM). The error-correction variable, which represents the short-run discrepancy from the equilibrium state in a cointegrated system, plays an important role in the ECM. It is natural to ask how the error-correction mechanism works, or equivalently, how the short-run discrepancy affects the development of the cointegrated system? This paper examines the effect or local influence on the error-correction variable in an error-correction model. Following the argument of the second-order approach to local influence suggested by reference [5], we develop a diagnostic statistic to examine the local influence on the estimation of the parameter associated with the error-correction variable in an ECM. An empirical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed diagnostic. We find that the short-run discre pancy may have strong influence on the estimation of the parameter associated with the error-correction model. It is the error-correction variable that the short-run discrepancies can be incorporated through the error-correction mechanism.

Dynamic Relation Mechanism between Cotton Future Price and Stock Price of Related Listed Companies

The Dynamic relation mechanism between ZCE cotton futures price and related listed company stock price has been studied based on the metastock historical data in January 1st,2007 to September 1st,2010,Johansen co-integration analysis,Vector error correction model,Granger causality test and variance decomposition method.The results indicated that:long-term equilibrium relationship existed between ZCE cotton futures price and Xinsai share stock price while which changed in the same tendency and speed in the long-term.Cotton futures price is the main reason for the changing of Xinsai share stock price.The lead-lag relationship in changing course had been confirmed that existed between ZCE cotton futures price and the Xinsai share stock price.Meanwhile,the forward pass mechanism of price changing information had been found only from the ZCE cotton futures market to the stock market while showing asymmetry.Conclusions of the study can be used for cotton and related corporate to hedge business risks by the cotton price changes.

A Robust Conformer-Based Speech Recognition Model for Mandarin Air Traffic Control

This study aims to address the deviation in downstream tasks caused by inaccurate recognition results when applying Automatic Speech Recognition(ASR)technology in the Air Traffic Control(ATC)field.This paper presents a novel cascaded model architecture,namely Conformer-CTC/Attention-T5(CCAT),to build a highly accurate and robust ATC speech recognition model.To tackle the challenges posed by noise and fast speech rate in ATC,the Conformer model is employed to extract robust and discriminative speech representations from raw waveforms.On the decoding side,the Attention mechanism is integrated to facilitate precise alignment between input features and output characters.The Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer(T5)language model is also introduced to handle particular pronunciations and code-mixing issues,providing more accurate and concise textual output for downstream tasks.To enhance the model’s robustness,transfer learning and data augmentation techniques are utilized in the training strategy.The model’s performance is optimized by performing hyperparameter tunings,such as adjusting the number of attention heads,encoder layers,and the weights of the loss function.The experimental results demonstrate the significant contributions of data augmentation,hyperparameter tuning,and error correction models to the overall model performance.On the Our ATC Corpus dataset,the proposed model achieves a Character Error Rate(CER)of 3.44%,representing a 3.64%improvement compared to the baseline model.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed model is validated on two publicly available datasets.On the AISHELL-1 dataset,the CCAT model achieves a CER of 3.42%,showcasing a 1.23%improvement over the baseline model.Similarly,on the LibriSpeech dataset,the CCAT model achieves a Word Error Rate(WER)of 5.27%,demonstrating a performance improvement of 7.67%compared to the baseline model.Additionally,this paper proposes an evaluation criterion for assessing the robustness of ATC speech recognition systems.In robustness evaluation experiments based on this criterion,the proposed model demonstrates a performance improvement of 22%compared to the baseline model.

工程降水对钻孔应变的干扰特征及干扰机制研究

抽水干扰在钻孔应变观测中常见且影响显著,为了能真实捕捉到地震前兆信息,须对其干扰机制进行研究.随着城市化进程,基坑工程及其伴随的工程降水逐步增多,工程降水对钻孔应变的干扰比普通单井抽水干扰更为严重.工程降水对钻孔应变观测有何干扰特征、干扰机制如何、干扰数据能否修复等问题对地震异常的探测具有重要意义.本文基于莱阳体应变受到附近御龙湾项目工程降水干扰的观测案例,研究了工程降水的干扰特征,修复了干扰畸变,通过数值模拟确定了干扰机制.结果表明:(1)工程降水在干扰体应变趋势变化的基础上叠加了方向明确、量级稳定的固体潮畸变,可以通过一阶差分逆运算进行修复.修复固体潮畸变并扣除背景速率后,工程降水干扰量级达-15.65×10^(-9)/d;(2)通过建立基于集中载荷模型的网格算法,模拟出工程降水在体应变异常初期和后期分别产生6.61×10^(9) N和1.73×10^(10) N的集中力载荷,干扰量级明显大于常见的单井抽水干扰,压性干扰集中于体应变仪与抽水井连线的垂直方向;(3)通过固体潮畸变特征及力学机制分析确定了工程降水造成固体潮畸变的干扰机制为"抽水引起压性趋势下降—抽水暂停引起张性台阶上升—抽水引起压性趋势下降"周期行为,固体潮畸变时间间隔(频次)和钻孔水位之间呈显著同步特征,线性系数为0.737.

一种光波大气折射率剖面模型构建方法

根据经典光波折射率计算公式和ITU-R建议书中水汽密度经验公式,给出了一种新的光波大气折射率计算公式;借鉴Hopfield折射率静力项剖面模型和ITU-R建议书中水汽密度剖面模型,给出了一种基于历史气象探空数据构建光波大气折射率剖面模型的方法。以青岛地区为例,通过对1986—1995年历史气象探空数据的处理并结合参考标准大气,建立了适合当地的光波大气折射率剖面模型;统计剖面模型预测折射率剖面与实测折射率剖面的均方根误差,结果表明:构建的剖面模型具有较好的预测精度,这对光学外测设备的折光修正数据处理具有很好的参考价值。

基于改进JRD及误差修正的轴承剩余寿命预测方法

目前,风电机组齿轮箱性能发生初始退化时难以识别,现有退化指标易出现剧烈波动、单调性较差,且无法准确预测齿轮箱关键部件如轴承的剩余使用寿命(RUL),针对该问题,提出了一种基于改进杰森-瑞丽散度(JRD)及误差修正的双指数模型轴承RUL预测方法。首先,提取了振动信号样本的多域特征指标,利用高斯混合模型(GMM)与指数型权重JRD,得到了样本的后验概率分布向量,再经归一化处理得到置信值(CV);然后,对轴承从初始健康状态退化至当前检查时刻的CV值进行了相空间重构,提取了CV序列的动力学特征,并将其作为相关向量机(RVM)的训练集,获得了支撑整个退化轨迹的相关向量;最后,利用双指数模型拟合了相关向量,外推趋势至失效门限以计算RUL,并引入了差分整合移动平均自回归模型(ARIMA),对拟合相关向量产生的拟合误差进行了预测,以修正预测的结果。实验结果表明:改进后的退化指标单调性指标提高14.3%;且在不同工况、不同时刻下,经误差修正后的轴承的RUL预测结果较未修正之前有明显提高。研究结果表明:该预测方法可为风电机组齿轮箱重要部件的预测性维护提供参考。

基于LuGre摩擦模型参数辨识与误差补偿方法的综述

文章对机械系统中LuGre摩擦模型的参数辨识与误差补偿方法进行了文献综述,并从参数辨识和误差补偿两个方面对该模型的应用进行了探讨。首先,介绍了LuGre摩擦模型的基本原理和数学表达式。其次,概述了常见的LuGre摩擦模型参数辨识方法。然后,讨论了LuGre模型的误差补偿方法。最后,指出了未来研究的发展方向。通过对LuGre模型参数辨识与误差补偿方法的综述,可为相关领域的研究者提供参考和启示,有助于进一步推进摩擦补偿技术的发展和应用。

基于CMA-TRAMS模式地形高度偏差的地面气温误差订正方法研究

采用一元线性方法建立南海台风模式CMA-TRAMS地形高度偏差和地面气温预报误差的回归关系,分别开展不分级、高度偏差分级和地面气温误差分级的三种订正方法的研究,并进行订正效果评估。结果表明,模式地面气温预报误差与地形高度偏差总体呈负的线性相关关系,地面气温预报绝对误差随地形高度偏差绝对值增大而增大(对模式地形高度偏低站点尤为明显),但不同时刻地面气温预报误差特征表现不同,模式对地形高度偏高(即模式地形高于测站高度)和地形高度偏差小于50m的站点,06时地面气温(世界时,下同)预报总体偏低,对地形高度偏低大于50m的站点(即模式地形低于测站高度),06时地面气温预报总体偏高;而无论站点地形高度偏差如何,模式对18时地面气温预报总体偏高。三种订正方法中地面气温误差分级法能有效地减小地面气温预报误差,该方法订正后的分析场准确率可达96%~99%,12~48小时时效预报场准确率总体可提升至90%以上,该方法具有回归关系稳定、效果显著、适用性广、简单易行等特点。

卫星导航中电离层误差校正技术现状与发展

电离层误差严重影响着GNSS的定位精度,GPS、BDS、Galileo、GLONASS有不同的电离层误差校正方法.全文概述了电离层误差校正方法,综述了单频电离层误差校正、双频电离层误差校正及多频电离层误差校正等技术的原理与发展现状.在单频电离层误差校正技术中总结了增强系统中的电离层误差校正技术、北斗全球电离层延迟修正模型(BeiDou global ionospheric delay correction model,BDGIM)、Klobuchar模型、单频电离层误差校正技术的优化—附加国际参考电离层(international reference ionosphere,IRI)约束模型和NeQuick-G模型;在双频电离层误差校正技术中重点总结了双频消电离层误差、无电离层组合模型及PPP-RTK技术中电离层误差校正方法;在多频电离层误差校正技术中介绍了高阶项改正和地磁场建模对电离层误差校正技术的优化与改进.最后,对电离层误差校正技术及其改进方法进行了分析,总结了其发展趋势与方向.