An Efficient Reliability-Based Optimization Method Utilizing High-Dimensional Model Representation and Weight-Point Estimation Method

The objective of reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)is to minimize the optimization objective while satisfying the corresponding reliability requirements.However,the nested loop characteristic reduces the efficiency of RBDO algorithm,which hinders their application to high-dimensional engineering problems.To address these issues,this paper proposes an efficient decoupled RBDO method combining high dimensional model representation(HDMR)and the weight-point estimation method(WPEM).First,we decouple the RBDO model using HDMR and WPEM.Second,Lagrange interpolation is used to approximate a univariate function.Finally,based on the results of the first two steps,the original nested loop reliability optimization model is completely transformed into a deterministic design optimization model that can be solved by a series of mature constrained optimization methods without any additional calculations.Two numerical examples of a planar 10-bar structure and an aviation hydraulic piping system with 28 design variables are analyzed to illustrate the performance and practicability of the proposed method.

Evaluation of estimation methods for meiofaunal biomass from a meiofaunal survey in Bohai Bay

Studies in the coastal area of Bohai Bay,China,from July 2006 to October 2007,suggest that the method of meiofaunal biomass estimation affected the meiofaunal analysis.Conventional estimation methods that use a unique mean individual weight value for nematodes to calculate total biomass may cause deviation of the results.A modified estimation method,named the Subsection Count Method (SCM),was also used to calculate meiofaunal biomass.This entails only a slight increase in workload but generates results of greater accuracy.Results gained using each of these two methods were compared in the present study.The results show that the conventional method generally estimates a meiofaunal biomass.The difference between the two estimation methods was highly significant (P<0.01) for the spring and winter cruises.Furthermore,the estimation method for meiofaunal biomass affected the analysis of horizontal distribution and correlation with environmental factors.These findings highlight the importance of estimation methods for meiofaunal biomass and will hopefully stimulate further investigation and discussion of the topic.

An Estimation Method of Stress in Soft Rock Based on In-situ Measured Stress in Hard Rock

The law of variation of deep rock stress in gravitational and tectonic stress fields is analyzed based on the Hoek-Brown strength criterion. In the gravitational stress field,the rocks in the shallow area are in an elastic state and the deep,relatively soft rock may be in a plastic state. However,in the tectonic stress field,the relatively soft rock in the shallow area is in a plastic state and the deep rock in an elastic state. A method is proposed to estimate stress values in coal and soft rock based on in-situ measurements of hard rock. Our estimation method relates to the type of stress field and stress state. The equations of rock stress in various stress states are presented for the elastic,plastic and critical states. The critical state is a special stress state,which indicates the conversion of the elastic to the plastic state in the gravitational stress field and the conversion of the plastic to the elastic state in the tectonic stress field. Two cases stud-ies show that the estimation method is feasible.

Calculation of Significant Wave Height Using the Linear Mean Square Estimation Method

Significant wave height is an important criterion in designing coastal and offshore structures.Based on the orthogonality principle, the linear mean square estimation method is applied to calculate significant wave height in this paper.Twenty-eight-year time series of wave data collected from three ocean buoys near San Francisco along the California coast are analyzed.It is proved theoretically that the computation error will be reduced by using as many measured data as possible for the calculation of significant wave height.Measured significant wave height at one buoy location is compared with the calculated value based on the data from two other adjacent buoys.The results indicate that the linear mean square estimation method can be well applied to the calculation and prediction of significant wave height in coastal regions.

WAVE CURRENT FORCE COEFFICIENTS ON INCLINED CYLINDER AND A NEW ESTIMATION METHOD

Based on the review of present force coefficients estimation methods, a new method in the frequency domain, revised cross-spectrum estimation method, is presented in this paper. Some experiments on the wave-current force on inclined cylinders are also described and the wave current force coefficients are estimated by the revised cross-spectrum estimation method. From the results, it is found that the wave and current directions have some regular effect on the coefficients. According to the results, some empirical formulas are obtained for converting the wave-current force coefficients on inclined cylinders into a unified coefficient. Comparisons show that the unified coefficients are in good agreement with other results.

Singularity of Some Software Reliability Models and Parameter Estimation Method

According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliability analysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificial intelligence technology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of a software project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a software reliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency in applications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of experimental models in SRES.

Evaluation of Some Weibull Parameter Estimation Methods for Characterizing Stem Diameter Distribution in a Tropical Mixed Forest of Southern Nigeria

Stem diameter distribution information is useful in forest management planning. Weibull function is flexible, and has been used in characterising diameter distributions, especially in single-species planted stands, the world over. We evaluated some Weibull parameter estimation methods for stem diameter characterisation in （Oban） multi-species Forest in southern Nigeria. Four study sites （Aking, Ekang, Erokut and Ekuri） were selected. Four 2 km-long transects situated at 600 m apart were laid in each location. Five 50m x 50m plots were alternately laid along each transect at 400 m apart （20 plots/location） using systematic sampling technique. Tree growth variables： diameter at breast height （Dbh）, diameters at the base, middle and merchantable limit, total height, merchantable height, stem straightness, crown length and crown diameter were measured on all trees 〉 10 cm to compute model response variables such as mean diameters, basal area and stem volume. Weibull parameters estimation methods used were： moment-based, percentile-based, hybrid and maximum-likelihood （ML）. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, regression models and ANOVA at α0.05. Percentile-based method was the best for Weibull [location （a）, scale （b） and shape （c）] parameters estimations with mLogL = 116.66±21.89, while hybrid method was least-suitable （mLogL = 690.14±128.81） for Weibull parameters estimations. Quadratic mean diameter （Dq） was the only suitable predictor of Weibull parameters in Oban Forest.

Advances in Estimation Methods of Surface Solar Radiation

Based on the main research results of estimation methods of surface solar radiation at home and abroad in recent decades, three commonly used estimation models of surface solar radiation have been introduced, and their principles, advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed to provide scientific references for further study of surface solar radiation in future.

A Battery Life-Cycle Estimation Method Based on Degradation Test Data

LiB （lithium-ion battery） has become serious concern for energy management systems, especially in Japan, where the argument on a nuclear power plant problem is active. Including reuse of LiB, long-term use is expected, however, method to ensure LiB life has not been developed thus the users of LiB are forced to accept the uncertainty of LiB life. Therefore this study suggests an evaluation method for LiB life using degradation experimental data. This method has three elements, defining indexes, preparing degradation speed database from the result of experiment, and setting up the use patterns of LiB. In order to be usable under non-experimental conditions, degradation speed database has the data in all conditions by complementing the experimental result. Finally, this evaluation model was verified by comparing model estimates and the experimental measurements.

Comparative Study of Probabilistic and Least-Squares Methods for Developing Predictive Models

This article explores the comparison between the probability method and the least squares method in the design of linear predictive models. It points out that these two approaches have distinct theoretical foundations and can lead to varied or similar results in terms of precision and performance under certain assumptions. The article underlines the importance of comparing these two approaches to choose the one best suited to the context, available data and modeling objectives.

Study on Estimation Method of Rock Mass Discontinuity Shear Strength Based on Three-Dimensional Laser Scanning and Image Technique

The estimation of shear strength of rock mass discontinuity is always a focal, but difficult, problem in the field of geotechnical engineering. Considering the disadvantages and limitation of exist- ing estimation methods, a new approach based on the shadow area percentage （SAP） that can be used to quantify surface roughness is proposed in this article. Firstly, by the help of laser scanning technique, the three-dimensional model of the surface of rock discontinuity was established. Secondly, a light source was simulated, and there would be some shadows produced on the model surface. Thirdly, to obtain the value of SAP of each specimen, the shadow detection technique was introduced for use. Fourthly, compared with the result from direct shear testing and based on statistics, an empirical for- mula was found among SAP, normal stress, and shear strength. Data of Yujian （~ River were used as an example, and the following conclusions have been made. （1） In the case of equal normal stress, the peak shear stress is positively proportional to the SAP. （2） The formula for estimating was derived, and the predictions of peak-shear strength made with this equation well agreed with the experimental re- suits obtained in laboratory tests.

Study on Top-Down Estimation Method of Software Project Planning

This paper studies a new software project planning method under some actual project data in order to make software project plans more effective. From the perspective of system theory, our new method regards a software project plan as an associative unit for study. During a top-down estimation of a software project, Program Evaluation and Review Technique （PERT） method and analogy method are combined to estimate its size, then effort estimation and specific schedules are obtained according to distributions of the phase effort. This allows a set of practical and feasible planning methods to be constructed. Actual data indicate that this set of methods can lead to effective software project planning.

A GEO Satellite Position and Beam Features Estimation Method Based on Beam Edge Positions

Constrained by orbital configuration and spectrum sharing,non-geostationary orbit(NGEO)satellites may be interfered when they are in the beam range of geostationary orbit(GEO)satellite.However,it is difficult for NGEO operators to determine the signal source.Herein,we propose a method to locate the GEO signal source and estimate beam features,including beam pointing azimuth,elevation,and beamwidth,by the beam edge positions.We transform this estimation problem into two optimization problems by minimizing the estimation error,and solve both of them through a multi-variable joint iteration method with acceptable computation complexity.Numerical results show that when NGEO satellites pass through the beam twice,the longitude estimation error is about 0.01 degree,and the estimation results will be more and more accurate as the number of passing times increases.Besides,the proposed method is also effective when there are kilometer-level errors in beam edge positions.

The spectrum entropy estimation method for ultrasonic backscattering signal in cancellous bones

In the application of cancellous bone ultrasound diagnosis based on backscattering method, it is of great importance to estimate fast and accurately whether the valid backscattering signal exists in the received signal. We propose a fast estimation method based on spectrum entropy method. With 984 records of adult calcaneus clinical data, we estimate the validity of the backscatter signal using this method. The results of the proposed method and the results of experience-base judgement were compared and analyzed. And two key parameters, the signal range length and the segment number of the spectrum entropy, were analyzed. The results show when the signal range length is 13 I^s and the segment number is 15 20, this method can get the best result （accuracy〉95%, sensitivity〉99%, specificity〉87%）, while taking little calculation time （1.5 ms）. Therefore, this spectrum entropy method can satisfy the accuracy and real-time requirements in the ultrasonic estimation for cancellous bone.

SER estimation method for 56 GBaud PAM-4 transmission system

In this Letter, we have proposed a generalized Gaussian probability density function（GGPDF）-based method to estimate the symbol error ratio（SER） for pulse amplitude modulation（PAM-4） in an intensity modulation/direct detection（IM/DD） system. Furthermore, a closed form expression of SERGGDfor PAM-4 has been derived. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation as well as experimental work.The fitting of probability density functions of the received signal is applied via GGPDF and shape parameters P1 and P2 associated with different PAM-4 levels are determined. The optimum single value of shape parameter P is then calculated to estimate the SER. The mathematical relationship of P with different received optical powers and receiver bandwidths has been determined and verified. The proposed method is a fast and accurate method to estimate SER of a PAM-4 system, which is more reliable and in agreement with the error counting method.

Maximum likelihood spectrum estimation method and its application in seismo－magnet－icrelation

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Estimation method of glottal vocal efficiency based on conversion function of voice source

This investigation was designed to approach a novel estimation method of glottal vocal efficiency (GVE) based on conversion function of voice source. The conversion function of voice source was defined the ratio of supra-glottal acoustic voice source signal to the glottal air volume flow velocity waveform in frequency domain. A carefully designed in vivo canine larynx experiment and several human experiments including different vowels, pressed, falsetto, breath and typical laryngeal diseases were adopted to demonstrate this alternative GVE method. Compared with other vocal efficiency, it is shown that this method could eliminate the contribution from the super vocal tract transmission and resonance to GVE, and reflect the differences of phonation modes. The average magnitude of this conversion function in frequency domain represents GVE, and the variation of the magnitude in fundamental frequency is identical to AC/DC value.

Estimation of Weibull Distribution Parameters for Wind Speed Characteristics Using Neural Network Algorithm

Harvesting the power coming from the wind provides a green andenvironmentally friendly approach to producing electricity. To facilitate theongoing advancement in wind energy applications, deep knowledge aboutwind regime behavior is essential. Wind speed is typically characterized bya statistical distribution, and the two-parameters Weibull distribution hasshown its ability to represent wind speeds worldwide. Estimation of Weibullparameters, namely scale (c) and shape (k) parameters, is vital to describethe observed wind speeds data accurately. Yet, it is still a challenging task.Several numerical estimation approaches have been used by researchers toobtain c and k. However, utilizing such methods to characterize wind speedsmay lead to unsatisfactory accuracy. Therefore, this study aims to investigatethe performance of the metaheuristic optimization algorithm, Neural NetworkAlgorithm (NNA), in obtaining Weibull parameters and comparing itsperformance with five numerical estimation approaches. In carrying out thestudy, the wind characteristics of three sites in Saudi Arabia, namely HaferAl Batin, Riyadh, and Sharurah, are analyzed. Results exhibit that NNA hashigh accuracy fitting results compared to the numerical estimation methods.The NNA demonstrates its efficiency in optimizing Weibull parameters at allthe considered sites with correlations exceeding 98.54.

A new method for the estimation of fine-sediment resuspension ratios in estuaries-taking the turbidity maximum zone of the Changjiang(Yangtze) estuary as an example

Based on the principle of conservative matter removal in estuary,a new method is proposed for estimating the ratio of sediment resuspension in estuaries with fine suspended sediments in the turbidity maximum zone(TMZ) of the Changjiang(Yangtze) estuary during 2005.Results show that there was a range of 18.7%±27.9% to 73.9%±22.5% per annum of total suspended particulate matter(SPM),with an average of 49.2%.Nearly half of the particulate matter in the TMZ originates from sediment resuspension.This indicates that sediment resuspension is one of the major mechanisms involved in formation of the TMZ.Compared with traditional method for calculating these ratios in the estuary,this new method evaluates the dynamic variation of SPM content carried by river runoff from the river mouth to the ocean.The new method produced more reliable results than the traditional one and could produce a better estimation of resuspension flux for particulate matter in estuaries.

Gas emission source term estimation with 1-step nonlinear partial swarm optimization-Tikhonov regularization hybrid method

Source term identification is very important for the contaminant gas emission event. Thus, it is necessary to study the source parameter estimation method with high computation efficiency, high estimation accuracy and reasonable confidence interval. Tikhonov regularization method is a potential good tool to identify the source parameters. However, it is invalid for nonlinear inverse problem like gas emission process. 2-step nonlinear and linear PSO （partial swarm optimization）-Tikhonov regularization method proposed previously have estimated the emission source parameters successfully. But there are still some problems in computation efficiency and confidence interval. Hence, a new 1-step nonlinear method combined Tikhonov regularizafion and PSO algorithm with nonlinear forward dispersion model was proposed. First, the method was tested with simulation and experiment cases. The test results showed that 1-step nonlinear hybrid method is able to estimate multiple source parameters with reasonable confidence interval. Then, the estimation performances of different methods were compared with different cases. The estimation values with 1-step nonlinear method were close to that with 2-step nonlinear and linear PSO-Tikhonov regularization method, 1-step nonlinear method even performs better than other two methods in some cases, especially for source strength and downwind distance estimation. Compared with 2-step nonlinear method, 1-step method has higher computation efficiency. On the other hand, the confidence intervals with the method proposed in this paper seem more reasonable than that with other two methods. Finally, single PSO algorithm was compared with 1-step nonlinear PSO-Tikhonov hybrid regularization method. The results showed that the skill scores of 1-step nonlinear hybrid method to estimate source parameters were close to that of single PSO method and even better in some cases. One more important property of 1-step nonlinear PSO-Tikhonov regularization method is its reasonable confidence interval, which is not obtained by single PSO algorithm. Therefore, 1-step nonlinear hybrid regularization method proposed in this paper is a potential good method to estimate contaminant gas emission source term.